The 3-2-1 Column: Transfer priorities, the NFL Draft, NIL and more
In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about NIL promos, transfers, the NFL Draft and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Finally
It finally happened.
On Wednesday, Pat Narduzzi finally made a definitive and official endorsement for Alliance 412, Pitt’s primary NIL collective.
Sure, Narduzzi has done things for Alliance 412 before, appearing in videos and photos and probably retweeting here and there. But on Wednesday, we got a full-blown effort. Check it out:
To use wrestling terms, Narduzzi cut a promo. I think that’s what they say in wrestling, right? He cut a promo? Sounds right.
The world of college athletics is changing, and these days, you’ve got to have a strong NIL collective if you want to compete. Our goal at Pitt isn’t just to compete; it’s to win an ACC and national championship. Your support of Alliance 412, the Panthers’ official collective, can make that goal a reality. Show your Pitt pride and go to Alliance412-dot-com today and become a member.
That’s the first all-in endorsement of Alliance 412 we’ve seen from Narduzzi or anyone officially affiliated with Pitt. More importantly, it’s the first direct call-to-action from Narduzzi, and while Jeff Capel has been more out front about the whole thing, Narduzzi’s step here is a crucial one.
Really, it’s the latest in a series of public overtures from Narduzzi, the last being the extremely unconventional decision to open the closed scrimmage for Alliance 412 donors of a certain level late in spring camp. That was a huge move for Narduzzi and, by extension, Heather Lyke and the Athletic Department. It was a big gesture that said, loud and clear, “We want you to be part of Alliance 412 because the more you donate, the better players we can acquire.”
That’s not something Narduzzi has always been willing to say. He probably hasn’t really even wanted to think it, but eventually, reality sinks in for everyone. And the reality of the current moment is, you need the best team money can buy if you’re going to really try to win.
Once you accept that reality, you move on to the question of how to make it happen, and here we come to another reality:
The grassroots nature of these collectives is nice, but it’s not going to really move the needle for donations from an unmoved fanbase like Pitt has. It takes a lot to get Pitt fans into action, and while Alliance 412 has tried pretty hard and has even generated some results, it has all been short of what’s really needed, and at least some of the issue has grown from a skepticism about about NIL in general and Alliance 412 specifically.
So getting the official nod, the head coach’s seal of approval that yes, you should donate money that can be paid to the players, and yes, you should donate that money to Alliance 412 - that can be a big step in getting Pitt closer to where it needs to be.
The defensive line is still the priority
Speaking of transfers, we’ve seen the Pitt coaches kick the tires on a number of potential targets at a variety of positions, but one priority stands above the rest:
The defensive line
And I’m pretty sure we had this discussion in December, too. Back then, the defensive line was the priority when it came to transfers after three defensive tackles ran out of eligibility, another one transferred to South Carolina and one defensive end transferred to Colorado. The numbers were already running thin at that point, and the Pitt staff responded by adding one veteran defensive end, one young defensive end and one defensive tackle from the portal, in addition to signing five more linemen as high school prospects.
So Pitt ended up plus-three on linemen - eight added, five gone - after the dust settled on Signing Day and the December portal window. But the situation still felt dicey. The Panthers were projected to have 10 defensive ends and seven defensive tackles on scholarship, and that’s a bit on the light side, particularly when five of the ends are freshmen or redshirt freshmen.
But things got thinner, of course, when Dayon Hayes decided to leave for the portal (he committed to Colorado over the weekend). Throw in Nate Temple’s season-ending injury, and Pitt is looking at eight scholarship ends - five of which are freshmen or redshirt freshmen - and seven tackles.
That’s about as thin as a mirror, and while I’m planning to reflect on the current state of the defensive line next week, looking at the situation right now makes things crystal clear:
Pitt needs linemen. Pitt still needs linemen. Because even adding three transfers and five recruits isn’t enough to address the problem.
We’ve seen the coaches try to address it with multiple offers to defensive linemen in the current portal window. I feel like the spring portal window - which closes on Tuesday - might be even more loopy than the one in December, because teams are probably even more desperate to fill needs.
Pitt would fit into that category of desperation. At least, I think the coaches should be feeling desperate. The problem is, getting a quality pass-rusher at this stage is going to be a challenge that requires considerable NIL investment (which is probably not unconnected to the Narduzzi endorsement of Alliance 412, although I suspect there were quite a few inspirations for that promo).
I think they’ll get somebody, but I don’t know who and - perhaps more importantly - I don’t know how impactful of a player they’ll get. They have to try, though, because the current projected two-deeps at defensive end and defensive tackle are perilous, to say the least.
I’m looking at a potential starting lineup of Bam Brima and Nate Matlack at end and Nahki Johnson and Sean FitzSimmons at tackle.
That’s a serviceable group. Maybe even solid. But the depth behind them is where it gets worrisome - there just aren’t a lot of guys who have done much in their careers, either because they’re young or they’ve been sitting behind veterans.
There might be some surprises, some players who break out in 2024, but if this is the group Pitt rolls with heading into the season, it feels like the coaches are taking a pretty big risk.
The hoops priority
As we talk about priorities in the transfer portal, Pitt hoops is in an interesting situation.
There are targets still on the board, of course, with Kentucky forward Adou Thiero being right there at the top. But in light of landing two transfers - Florida State center Cam Corhen and Houston guard Damian Dunn - Jeff Capel and his staff are kind of in a good place.
They’ve got really good depth in the back court, with Dunn joining the returning tandem of Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett as well as freshman Brandin Cummings. They’ve got some pieces at center, led by Corhen, that might actually give the Panthers a scoring threat in the post. They’ve got Zack Austin back on the wing. And they’ve got the Diaz Graham twins available to man the four.
Even if that last part makes you a bit squeamish - and I’m coming around on the idea of it working - I think the staff can put together a rotation that goes eight or nine-deep and win some games.
If the starting lineup looks like this - Lowe, Leggett, Austin, Guillermo Diaz Graham and Corhen - I think there’s a good deal to like about it. Lowe and Leggett are proven commodities, Corhen should provide offense, Guillermo is a 40% three-point shooter on the wing. And Austin has the explosiveness to be a net positive.
Then for the depth, there’s Dunn and Cummings to play in the back court, likely leading to more three-guard lineups like we saw last season. Jorge Diaz Graham can sub in at the 3 or the 4. Guillermo can play the 5. And Papa Kante can, too.
That’s a lot of guys allowing Capel to go two-deep at just about every spot, and I honestly think it could be a pretty productive group. The guards will lead the way, the wings will bring some shooting in addition to what the guards do and the centers might actually score near the basket this year. Capel can roll out a variety of lineups to get different kinds of matchups, and I think they’ve got good fits at all of the spots.
I like how it has come together, and I think the staff does, too. Which puts them in an interesting position, because while they’ve got two spots left to fill, they don’t necessarily have a giant glaring need. They can go with what they’ve got and field a pretty good team.
That said…
If Capel can add Thiero to this group, look out.
So there’s no pressing need to get this roster into “good” territory - I think it’s there - but Thiero is the kind of addition who can push it above that - well above it.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
What happened to the draft success?
The last three years were pretty good for Pitt when it comes to the NFL Draft. Really good, in fact.
Like, one of the best runs in Pitt history.
The Panthers had 14 players drafted in the last three classes. That’s the highest total of drafted Pitt players over a three-year span since the NFL Draft cut down to its current format of seven rounds in 1994. It was also the first time sine 2007-08 that Pitt had first-round picks in back-to-back rounds (Darrelle Revis and Jeff Otah back then; Kenny Pickett and Calijah Kancey this time).
It has been a heck of a run, but it seems like it is coming to an end. No Pitt players were taken in the first round of the Draft last night, which was expected, and it seems like there’s a pretty decent chance none of the Panthers who will be drafted will go in the second and third rounds today.
We can probably draw some connections between the lack of NFL talent and last season’s 3-9 record, although I would contend that the biggest issue in 2023 was the play at quarterback; even average play at that position would have gotten the Panthers to at least six wins, if not more.
Personally, I’m more interested in the fall-off itself rather than its results. And, as always, it comes back to recruiting. There are basically three recruiting classes that provide the players who would be draft-eligible this year:
2019, 2020 and 2021
The guys from 2019 would have just finished their fifth years of eligibility this past season. 2020 would be four-year guys. And 2021 would be three-year guys going to the NFL early.
Pitt signed exactly 60 players in those three classes, and as it stands right now, it looks like they will have produced exactly one Draft pick this year (Matt Goncalves; M.J. Devonshire and Bub Means don’t count in this discussion since they were transfers).
So where are all the Draft picks from those three classes?
Well, some of them were already drafted. SirVocea Dennis, Calijah Kancey and Brandon Hill were in the 2019 class, and they were selected last year. Ditto for Israel Abanikanda, who was in the 2020 class (Jordan Addison, too, if we want to count him).
So that’s four (or five) guys that are out of the mix, but that still leaves more than 50 draft-eligible players from those three classes. There have been transfers, of course, and ultimately, there were 34 players from those three classes still on the roster in 2023.
(The current transfer count on those three classes is up to 28, in case you were curious.)
34 draft-eligible players from three recruiting classes, and only one - Goncalves - is expected to hear his name called this weekend.
That’s rough.
If Pitt is going to pick things back up with the Draft success, some of those others are going to have to break out this season and play their way into the territory of pro prospects. Or next year’s Draft - not to mention the season - could look like this one.
What happened to the greatest defensive line class in WPIAL history?
Okay, so maybe it was a bit of hyperbole to call the 2021 class the greatest defensive line class in WPIAL history. But I know this: nobody I asked could come up with a better group than Elliot Donald, Nahki Johnson and Dorien Ford.
Holy cow. Look at those offer sheets. There was Pitt, of course, joined by enough big Power Five programs to widen everybody’s eyes. And when those three committed to the Panthers, you better believe we emphasized the hell out of those offer sheets.
Penn State? Yep, all three had that one. Ditto for Michigan. LSU offered Donald and Johnson. Texas A&M offered Donald and Ford. That’s what we’re talking about - and we talked about that group a lot.
It wasn’t unfounded. They were good recruits. Three guys in the top 12 of the state for their class, productive players in high school and promising college prospects.
Now? Ford moved to the offensive line last season and went into the portal this week. Donald has played 100 defensive snaps in three seasons and has recorded six tackles. Johnson has played 123 snaps and has made 10 tackles.
The best defensive line class in WPIAL history has played 225 defensive snaps (Ford logged two snaps at defensive tackle in 2022) and made 16 tackles in three years.
What happened?
Well, there’s a variety of factors. Ford lasted just two seasons at defensive tackle before switching to offense, but any hopes of him pulling a Jason Pinkston - another highly-coveted Baldwin defensive tackle who moved to the offensive line - fizzled pretty quickly when Ford’s playing time was limited to the Wofford game. Despite some real musical chairs at guard, Ford was never in the mix, playing behind not just experienced vets Jake Kradel and Blake Zubovic but also an inexperienced vet (Jason Collier) and a true freshman (B.J. Williams).
This spring, Ford wasn’t any closer to getting on the field, and the message was clear.
With Donald, there was certainly the matter of depth: he played behind a trio of seniors last season, and those guys created a logjam at defensive tackle for the bulk of Donald’s career. That grants him at least a little bit of a reprieve, but now all of those guys are gone, so the excuse of being behind a bunch of vets doesn’t play anymore.
Johnson’s situation is somewhat similar. Pitt has had quality depth at defensive end over the last three years, so Johnson would have needed to really stand out to break into the rotation, and clearly he didn’t.
This spring, he formally moved inside to defensive tackle, a position switch that seems to have gone well and could have him on track to be a starter.
So maybe the worm has turned there. Given the lack of depth and experience at defensive tackle, Donald and Johnson should both get plenty of opportunity. What they do with that opportunity remains to be seen, but this much is for certain:
They’re both redshirt juniors this season. They will have one year of eligibility remaining after this. If they’re going to even come close to living up to their billing as recruits, it’s now or never.
ONE PREDICTION
The departure that will hurt the most
The transfer portal window closes on Tuesday, meaning any football players who plan to enter the portal will have to do so by then. Teams can still add players after that window closes, but no more can go in.
For the most part, I think having a “closed” date on portal entries is a good idea. It gives coaches a hard cut-off date that they can circle on the calendar - a specific point after which they at least know the returning players that they’ll have on the upcoming season’s roster.
It’s good for roster management, and probably a little peace of mind, to not have to worry about anybody else leaving.
So that means five more days, including today, to watch the roster and see who goes.
Thus far, seven Pitt players have left for the aforementioned transfer portal:
DE Dayon Hayes
LB Solomon DeShields
QB Christian Veilleux
DE Antonio Camon
WR Israel Polk
TE Cole Mitchell
OL Dorien Ford
Pretty much in that order, chronologically. But what about the impact of their departures? Which transfer hurts Pitt the most?
It’s kind of that order, too.
Hayes has to be at the top of the list. I personally may think that DeShields is a better player with a higher ceiling, but the depth at linebacker is quite a bit better than it is at defensive end (hence the “portal priorities” discussion we had earlier).
So Hayes is the biggest loss; I don’t think there’s any question about that, what with the talent and the situation at his position. DeShields is right behind; his position is a little deeper and more promising, but I think DeShields is a pro, and it’s never good to lose an NFL guy.
I even think the loss of Polk stings a little. He had a pretty high ceiling, and even if he wasn’t going to be a top-three receiver this season, I think he has a chance to be good in the future.
But that depth situation at defensive end is pretty dire, and whatever we might say about Hayes’ inconsistency, he still had the potential to put it all together and have a big year, possibly anchoring the defensive line.
Hayes’ decision to leave Pitt hurt the pass rush, made a thin position even thinner and created even more desperation for the staff in the spring portal window. It’s going to sting all season, too, I fear.