The 3-2-1 Column: The season ends and the offseason begins

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we are going to wrap up the 2023-24 Pitt basketball season. The Panthers’ run came to a sudden end when they were left out of the NCAA Tournament field on Sunday and then opted to then decline playing in the NIT.

Pitt posted 22 wins and went on an inspired run to even be in contention to make the Big Dance, but obviously it was not enough. We go back to some of the best moments, and revisit some of the reasons this team got left out of the tournament, and also look to the future.

After a week off, the Pitt football team returned to the practice field on Tuesday to resume spring ball. Head coach Pat Narduzzi dropped a significant bit of an injury news and we discuss what that means for this team as well.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Just like that, it was over

It was 6:26 p.m. on Sunday March 17th when Pitt’s 2023-24 basketball season officially ended. The full bracket was not yet revealed at that point, but what flashed on the screen in that very moment was Virginia making the NCAA Tournament as the No. 10 seed in the Midwest region.

The committee had more of the field to reveal, but once Virginia got in, that was the nail in the coffin for Pitt. There’s no need to rehash the resumes now, but as it has been well documented Pitt had a better NET ranking, more Quad 1 wins, and also a head to head victory over the Cavaliers. Not to mention, anyone using the simple ‘eye test’ could tell Pitt was a better basketball team than Virginia over the last two months of the season.

I hate using one singular tournament game as a ‘I told you so’ situation, but Virginia’s performance on Tuesday in the First Four sort of backed up what most thought of the Cavaliers getting in over Pitt, and teams like Indiana State and St. John’s for that matter. The committee was wrong all along about Virginia and the on-court result only reaffirmed that.

As they say, what’s done is done…

It was an unfortunate ending to a rather improbable run for the team to even get to that point, but it did bring on an empty feeling around the program. The Panthers overcame a 1-5 start in conference play, which was impressive, but it was a hole they dug themselves. Pitt was not blameless in missing the tournament and had many chances to bolster its resume, and we’ll get into that later, but in the end what it came down to were some numbers on a screen and not basketballs going through a hoop.

That’s a tough way to have you season end, especially for the players on the team, who simply play basketball and don’t calculate NET rankings. It was not known at the time that the season was over inside of Pitt’s locker room after the team lost to North Carolina 72-65 in the ACC Tournament semifinals, but there was an uneasy energy in the air that it might be.

Pitt then made the quick decision to opt out of the NIT, just like many other programs did in a similar spot. If the guys really wanted to play in the NIT they would have, but getting left out of the tournament stung, and also the wheel keeps spinning in this sport. Look, I like how college sports used to be as much as the next guy. I saw value in the NIT for many teams and as a consumer it was more basketball to watch on TV, but this isn't the same sport we all grew up watching.

I don’t think Pitt’s NIT decision is worth discussing much. The Panthers’ rotation was really just seven, sometimes eight guys down the stretch of the season. Blake Hinson’s time now is probably better spent getting ready for the NBA and not risking an injury playing in a second level tournament.

Bub Carrington may go through the draft process as well, plus there is the transfer portal to consider since that became open as of Monday. When you factor in all of that, it simply felt like a thin roster to play in a tournament that does not mean all that much.

In the end, Pitt collecting 22 wins and a top four ACC finish in a season is still a positive for this program in my opinion. The Panthers had their best-ever regular season finish since joining the conference this year and it’s ironic this team didn’t make the tournament after so many years finishing in the bottom five of the league and never even sniffing March Madness.

There were some dark days in the Pitt program we are not far removed from, but still obviously the goal around here is to make the postseason, and Pitt only has one tournament berth over the past seven seasons and that’s just the reality of the situation. I don’t think I can consider the season a failure or anything like that, but the measure of success around here should be making the NCAA Tournament from this point forward, which sort of leaves this season on the bubble as being good, but also a disappointment. It’s been a hell of a climb for Pitt basketball to crawl back into relevance, but there is still more to do to remain in that space.

The ending of the season was abrupt and somewhat without warning. There was still hope the team would sneak into the field for much of last weekend, but as more upsets started to happen in the conference tournaments, the Panthers’ hopes started to diminish with each passing hour. It was certainly a slow, painful death to a season watching teams like Duquesne, NC State, and Oregon earn last minute bids while Pitt had to stand on its 22-11 record.

The season coming to a close meant a lot of things, but Hinson's career coming to an end ranked high among them. It felt like one of the most exciting players in Pitt history deserved a better ending, but sometimes the world of sports can be cruel and unfair in that regard.

An interesting offseason

Let’s all jump into a time machine to say about five years ago, back to how college sports used to be. If Pitt just posted a 22-win season fueled by one senior and six underclassmen in the rotation, then the excitement would be through the roof for next year’s team based off who would be returning.

In that hypothetical world, the Panthers could count on the return of the talented backcourt consisting of Jaland Lowe, Bub Carrington, and Ish Leggett. Pitt could also see guys like Zach Austin and Guillermo Diaz Graham take big steps forward before next season, and there would undoubtedly be a great core in place to replicate another 20+ win season.

However, college basketball does not work like that anymore, as we all know.

Pitt had the ability to return everyone on the team for next season aside from Hinson, but in this era of college sports, you can’t really count on anything like that and we saw firsthand why that is yesterday.

Federiko Federiko, Pitt’s starting center for the past two seasons, opted to enter the transfer portal on Thursday evening. Federiko appeared in 68 games over the past two seasons and started 53 of them. He averaged 4.7 points and 5.2 rebounds this past year, but saw both of those numbers define from the 2023 season. The big man from Finland scored in double figures twice in 33 games this past season.

It seems he is looking to find a bigger role elsewhere, and perhaps he can find it. Federiko will always hold a special part at Pitt after being on last year’s team that got back into the tournament, but his production is something that can also likely be replaced just the same.

Even with yesterday’s news factored in, Pitt could have a really good team next season and a second top-four ACC finish is certainly be on the table. The backcourt of Carrington, Leggett, and Lowe, if it remains in tact, could very well be one of the best in all of college basketball next year.

The Panthers also have some good role players they can bring back beyond the three guards, then also some wildcards like Papa Amadou Kante, a four-star center in the class of 2023. He should be set to return after missing this past season with an injury, and could perhaps slide right into Federiko’s role. There is also 2024 prized recruit Brandin Cummings, and it appears like he can make an immediate impact. Cummings scored 37 points and led his high school team to a state championship last night.

Plus, Jeff Capel now has a spot or two to play with in the transfer portal, and he’s been quite good at finding players through that avenue of late with success stories like Hinson, Leggett, Jamarius Burton, and Nelly Cummings, among others. Given that lineage, Pitt should again be able to bring in a player or two ready to help out immediately of the portal.

Pitt’s biggest key this offseason will be trying to keep all three guards, and that’s stating the obvious. Carrington’s professional aspirations are out of Capel's hands, but it should be a program-wide goal to retain Leggett and Lowe, and frankly I think they will.

I don’t expect some mass exodus or anything after Federiko. Pitt trails some schools in NIL efforts no doubt, but the athletic program has shown it can prioritize and retain its best players. The Panthers might not go out and land the biggest name in the portal, but keeping their most talented players in the fold should be and has been the goal.

The football team had many guys who flirted with the idea of leaving after its most recent season, but Pitt found the funds to keep them around and I think the school and NIL collective should be able to do that here with basketball as well, but again, you just can never feel certain about anything.

Should Pitt not get hit with any devastating and unexpected blows, again I feel this team could be really good next season. A lot of that is dependent upon Carrington's pro decision, but even if he were to declare, a backcourt of Leggett and Lowe is still an awfully good starting point. Plus some of the role guys coming back, the addition of Cummings, and whoever Capel lands in the portal should make for another competitive roster in the ACC.

The Defensive Line is the team’s biggest mystery

On Tuesday, Pat Narduzzi reveled senior defensive end Nate Temple will miss the entire 2024 season with an injury. On a personal level, that’s an incredibly tough break for Temple. He fought through injuries, was buried on the depth chart, but finally got to play last season and started nine games and likely would have been a big part of the rotation this year.

Temple initially went through the process of transferring after last season, but had a change of heart and Pitt welcomed him back into the fold for a sixth season, but now that is off the table.

The production from Pitt’s defensive ends last year took a significant step back from what the team was accustomed to through the years and Temple was part of that group. He logged a lot of snaps last season and brought back an experience factor, but this team needed bigger defensive line production in 2024 whether or not he was going to be available.

I think his injury, however, is a simple reminder that defensive line arguably will be the biggest question mark going into the 2024 season. For a program built on the success of its defensive line, that’s an interesting place to be.

Obviously, the loss of the well-regarded Charlie Partridge certainly alters the outlook. There would always be trust in him to figure something out, and that’s not to say his replacement, Tim Daost, can’t produce a good group as well. It’s just a change, but a significant one at that.

I think when looking at defensive end, Pitt can probably count on Dayon Hayes, and well, we’ll find out after that. Hayes is the only returning player with significant game experience and some success, but it gets murky after that. Temple figured to be in the rotation, but his injury now creates even more playing time available.

Nate Matlack, a transfer from Kansas State has plenty of game experience and should be in line to see a pretty big role this season. Clemson transfer David Ojeigbe has promise and pedigree, but little game experience to point to at this stage of his career. Bam Brima has been around forever and has played off and on, but after that group you’re probably looking at Jimmy Scott, who got a few snaps past season, and a bunch of true or redshirt freshmen. There is talent in this group, but it is mostly unproven.

I think there is actually a lot of talent at the interior spot, but that is almost exclusively untested to this point. Pitt has eight scholarship defensive tackles, six of whom were four-star recruits coming out of high school, but hardly any have seen the field yet.

We’ll see if juniors Nahki Johnson and Elliot Donald can finally breakthrough in their fourth year with the program. Nick James, an Indiana transfer, is another former four-star and at least has some game experience to his name. Guys like Sean Fitzsimmons and Isaiah Neal have displayed promise mostly in practice, but haven’t made a game impact yet. Highly-ranted true freshmen like Francis Brewu and Jahsear Whittington may have to play this year.

I don’t know if the injury of Temple affected anything major in the overall expectations for the defensive line, but it did rehash how much of an unknown this spot truly is, and for a program that has thrived because of its defensive line play, these are unchartered waters.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What were the best moments of the 2023 season?

The Pitt basketball season did not end with a postseason berth, but the 33-game journey the team went on left an impression in many different ways. There were some historic wins, some records broken, and memorable performances. Here are my top five moments of 2023-24 season.

Bub’s debut

Bub Carrington started to generate some preseason buzz just ahead of the 2023-24 season and he reaffirmed it with perhaps the best debut in the history of Pitt basketball. Though it was only against North Carolina A&T, Carrington introduced himself to the college basketball world in a big way with a 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. It was only the fifth triple-double in Pitt history and the first since 1998. It set the stage, of course, for a big season from the Baltimore native.

Blake’s record breaking performance(s)

Blake Hinson broke the record for most 3-pointers in a single game in Pitt history, and then tied that mark later in the season. Both performances were jaw dropping from one of the most prolific scorers in Pitt history. Hinson torched West Virginia for nine 3-pointers in Morgantown, snapping Pitt’s six-game losing streak in the Backyard Brawl.

Later in the year, Hinson yet again drilled nine 3-pointers in a game, and put up one of the best individual scoring marks in Pitt history. Hinson just absolutely had his way with Louisville on the way to a career-high 41 points against the Cardinals. It was only the seventh 40-point game in Pitt history, and he was four points of tying the school record of 45.

The Duke win

Pitt’s season was dead in the water after it fell to 10-7 overall and 1-5 in the ACC after a loss to Syracuse on January 16th. The Panthers had to travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face No. 7 Duke, less than two weeks after the Blue Devils dismantled Pitt by 22 points. Things looked bleak, but Pitt came out punching, answered every run Duke had, and prevailed in a highly unlikely outcome with an 80-76 victory inside one of college basketball’s great cathedrals. Hinson was great, making all seven of his 3-point attempts. Jaland Lowe put up 20 points, including two clutch 3s late in the game. It was a stunning win, and got Pitt's season turned in the right direction.

The Wake comeback

Pitt trailed Wake Forest by 10 points at halftime in a home game on January 31st. The Panthers looked flat and had very little answer to slow down a potent Wake Forest offense, especially big man Efton Reid who was scoring at will against the Panthers’ post defense. The Panthers battled back, dropped 50 points on the Demon Deacons in the second half, and Will Jeffress, an unlikely hero, managed to shut down Reid during the stretch run. It was Pitt’s best home win of the season and stopped a three-game skid inside the Petersen Events Center.

Ish’s day

Ishmael Leggett was one of Pitt’s best players all season, but he took the selfless route of coming off the bench. It was a lineup maneuver that helped spark Pitt’s turnaround. Leggett managed to be a big contributor off the bench all season, but saved his best game for a special occasion. Leggett, a native of Prince George’s County (MD), got to return home for this year’s ACC Tournament. That allowed him to play in front of his father, Detrick, who suffered a stroke when Ishmael was in high school which has limited his ability to travel. The younger Leggett looked right at home with a 30-point outburst in a crucial March win.

What were the biggest what-ifs?

Pitt’s season officially ended as one of the first four teams left out of the NCAA Tournament field. When a season ends that close to playing in the Big Dance, it comes down to a few results here and there. Every team has a few ‘What ifs?’ and the Panthers are no different in that regard. Here are my three biggest what if scenarios for Pitt’s season.

What If they didn’t lost to Mizzou?

Pitt’s tournament resume had the blemish of a weak non-conference schedule. Other teams who made the tournament had that stain also, but the Panthers were punished for it more than most. If you are going to have a weak non-conference schedule, then you better not lose to a bad team. Pitt did. Missouri finished winless and dead last in the SEC. After beating Pitt, the Tigers went 2-22 for the rest of the season. It was a horrible loss, and if that wasn’t on Pitt’s resume, you have to wonder if Selection Sunday would have played out differently.

What if Dior Johnson was allowed to stay?

I wrestle this one and I’m not sure if it is good or bad that he was not on the roster this season, but it’s still an interesting question. Johnson’s an incredibly talented player, and would having an extra player with his ability been enough for Pitt to have a better record? Or, would his presence have stunted the growth of guys like Carrington and Lowe? It’s hard to say in either direction, but when you have a four-star point guard set to be on the roster and he gets dismissed by the school just before the season, it will always leave you wondering.

What if they hung on at Clemson?

Pitt went 9-2 down the stretch of the regular season. It felt like that type of run would have been enough to make the tournament, but obviously it did not work out that way. There were two losses in that stretch, the 91-58 loss to Wake Forest, which was just a terrible performance. The other was a much more manageable game at Clemson. While the Panthers have struggled mightily against that program, Pitt jumped the Tigers for an early 10-point lead and held a 31-27 advantage at halftime. It wasn’t enough and the Panthers let a prime opportunity slip away. It wasn’t known at the time, but a win here probably would have moved the needle and gotten the Panthers into the dance.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt wins 20 games again next season

This isn’t so much a prediction, but rather what the expectation should be for this program. After some seriously dark days, Pitt has now won 20 games in back-to-back seasons.

I believe that can and will happen again in 2024-25.

I know there are question marks and moving parts with the roster as it stands today, but if the program does what it is supposed to do: retain and reload, then there is no reason why Pitt can’t have another successful season next year. Jeff Capel has proven he can win here, he just now needs to grow from these two years and capitalize on the momentum.

We’ll find out what the roster looks like soon enough, but I think there will be enough leftover talent to form a solid nucleus. Capel has also done a very good job of identifying talent in the transfer portal, so there should be help on the way as well.

As we know, 20 wins does not guarantee a tournament berth, heck 22 wins doesn’t even do that these days, but perhaps the ACC can start to fix some of its image issues and that helps more of its teams to get into the field next season.