In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the 2025 football schedule, Pitt's rebuilt offensive line, Jeff Capel's center decision, the hoops team's defense and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Rebuilding the offensive line

The Pitt coaches had one job this offseason.

Okay, there wasn’t just one job. There were many jobs, many holes to fill, many issues to address. But there was one big one, and it was the biggest one.

The offensive line.

Pitt simply had to address the front five. If there was one big takeaway from last season - other than the should-be-obvious fact that you never kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 1 in the second overtime (or any point in a game) - it was this:

The offensive line needed to be upgraded via the transfer portal.

The starting five needed to be upgraded and the depth, maybe even more crucially, needed to be upgraded. Everyone could plainly see the lack of depth last season when one injury effectively cratered the season.

There were a lot of reasons Pitt went from 7-0 to 7-6, but if you could isolate one at the top of the list, it would be the season-ending injury to Branson Taylor and the ripple effect across the line that injury caused.

Taylor’s injury tested the depth at left tackle, which led to Ryan Baer moving from right tackle, which then tested the depth at right tackle.

All summer we said that we thought Pitt’s starting five could be solid and maybe even good, but the depth was highly questionable. And when that depth ended up being tested, the depth didn’t pass the test.

So it had to be upgraded.

And upgraded it has been.

I’m writing this section of the column on Thursday afternoon, with news of Notre Dame starting guard/Pitt legacy Rocco Spindler on campus for a visit and potentially headed for a future as a Panther. We’ll spend the next few paragraphs operating in the hypothetical of Pitt landing Spindler.

If that happens, the Panthers will have added four veteran, experienced offensive linemen from the portal. Spindler will join Michigan tackle Jeff Persi, Charlotte tackle Kendall Stanley and Richmond guard Keith Gouveia.

According to the back of an envelope on my desk, those four guys have combined for 127 games played and 63 starts.

Add in Ryan Baer (22 career starts), BJ Williams (19 career starts) and Lyndon Cooper (17 starts) plus six more starts for Terrence Enos and Jackson Brown, and you’ve got 127 career starts on Pitt’s offensive line entering the season.

By my math, last year Pitt had 50 starts in the offensive line group before the season started.

If nothing else, this year’s offensive line will come into the season with a lot more experience - in both the starting five and the depth behind them.

Spindler, Stanley, Gouveia, Persi, Baer, Williams, Cooper, Enos and Brown give the Panthers nine linemen who can fill the two-deep with a pretty good amount of time spent on the field.

Experience isn’t everything, but it’s a big step up from where they were last year.

Pitt is committed to Eli Holstein as the franchise quarterback. The next step from there was to protect him (and block for Desmond Reid).

It sure looks like that goal can been met in the portal.

Planning out the line

With all of these transfers, how will everyone fit together?

That’s more of a question we have than a “Thing we know” but I didn’t want to break up the topic, so we’ll talk about it here for the continuity.

Because the addition of Spindler could make things really, really interesting.

Of those nine guys with starting experience that I mentioned in the last section, Stanley, Baer, Persi, Enos and Brown are mostly tackles, Spindler, Williams and Gouveia are mostly guards and Cooper is mostly a center.

I say “mostly” in there because some of the guys like Baer, Enos and Brown can play guard, as can Cooper (although he’s probably just about as locked into a single spot as any of them).

What’s wild to me is that Pitt has effectively gone from a supremely thin situation to one where somebody with starting experience is going to come off the bench.

I highly doubt it would be Baer. But if Baer stays in the starting lineup at tackle, then either Stanley or Persi is going to be in a reserve role. The same goes for guard, where Gouveia, Spindler (if he comes) and Williams have all played a lot. One of those guys is going to be a backup.

That seems like a luxury. And, again, a massive upgrade over last year.

Most of all, it creates a situation where the Pitt staff will have legitimately good options from which to find the much-desired “best five.”

In every year, you’re going to find the best five. But Pitt hasn’t had options with this kind of experience in a long time.

I have to think that Baer, Cooper and Williams will retain starting spots, which would mean at least one of the incoming transfers would be working off the bench. If Spindler picks Pitt, he seems like a sure thing, and Stanley has experience at right tackle, so that would be one conceivable lineup.

But if Persi is one of the five best, then maybe Baer moves inside to guard, which could bump Williams.

Imagine that: bumping a two-year starter.

That would be wild, and I don’t know if it will happen. But simply having the depth to consider such a possibility is even wilder.

Experience is one of the most valuable traits in an offensive lineman (all positions, really, but especially the line). And it’s also one that requires time to acquire. You can’t get experience overnight.

Except with the transfer portal, you can. A school like Pitt is unlikely to have nine offensive linemen with starting experience on the roster at any given time. But because of the portal, the Panthers have a chance to enter 2025 with exactly that:

A lot of experience and even more depth so that the top commodities - Holstein and Reid - are thoroughly protected, even in the event of the unexpected, although at this point, we should probably expect at least one injury.

But that’s okay. Because if that injury happens, the Panthers won’t be calling on anyone to make their first career start in the meat of the ACC schedule.

The schedule is out

What can you say about a schedule? Not much, usually.

12 teams. 12 dates. 12 venues.

Well, six venues, really, and we already knew those. We knew the 12 teams, too. But now we have the 12 dates.

It’s interesting to see the full schedule, of course. When Pitt’s 2025 schedule was released on Monday, it added some certainty to the fall: what dates the Panthers will be at home, when they’ll be on the road, when the off week will come, when the inevitable Thursday night game will happen, etc.

We knew the teams and we knew three of the game dates prior to Monday night’s official schedule release. Now we know all the details.

Well, not all of them. We don’t know the game times yet. But we have the dates, and that’s a start.

That’s all it is, though: a start. And right now, there’s just not much more than that.

In years past, we might look at the schedule and say, “Oooh, that looks like a tough stretch” or “That’s a string of games where Pitt should have no more than one loss.” Something like that.

But how can we do that these days?

Two of Pitt’s opponents in 2025 will have new coaches (even if one of them is kind of an old coach). And seven of the 10 power-conference teams on the Panthers’ schedule will have new quarterbacks. It’s pretty tough to project win totals and set expectations when that much is changing.

So we’ll set aside that kind of schedule analysis and shift toward some other things.

Like the structure of the schedule. Pitt actually didn’t get one of those inevitable Thursday games, so everything will happen on Saturdays this year. And to that end, the Panthers’ schedule is somewhat symmetrical:

Three games. Off week. Six games. Off week. Three games.

I like that.

Three non-conference matchups to get a sense of where you’re at and then an off week to fine-tune before diving into the ACC schedule. Six games of that and then another off week to rest up and dial everything in before the stretch run of three games (which includes Notre Dame).

I think that’s a good way to break it up. It’s also good that they only go on the road in back-to-back weeks once (at Florida State and at Syracuse in October). And when they have their big road trip to Stanford, they have a home game the week before and they are off the week after.

I think those are all favorable arrangements. They probably won’t be the reason Pitt wins or loses this season, but I think the schedule doesn’t have any built-in challenges. Structurally, it seems like a good schedule.

Now we just have to find out if any of these teams are any good.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What should happen at center?

Pitt entered the 2024-25 season with a question mark at power forward, but with less than a dozen games left in the regular season, the biggest question is at center.

I really don’t want to add fuel to this fire - not too much, at least - and everyone knows it has been beaten to death on the message boards this week (and last week, and the week before that, and the week before that and on and on dating back to the summer).

But I do think there are some things to discuss here when it comes to Cam Corhen, Guillermo Diaz Graham and the five.

I’ll admit off the bat that I’m rather in the middle on the matter of who should be playing center the most. Part of that is probably recency bias; Corhen had one of his best games at Pitt on Tuesday night, and his efforts - particularly on defense in the second half - went a long way in helping the Panthers get a much-needed win over North Carolina.

I, for one, did not have “Cam Corhen effectively defending RJ Davis” on my bingo card that night. Maybe you did.

And yet, Corhen’s success came after the Pitt coaches made a strategic change to switch on screens; in the first half, when Pitt wasn’t switching, Corhen and Pitt’s defense overall struggled. So, kudos to the staff for making a change and kudos to the players for executing it, but I think there’s still some legitimate concern about Corhen’s defense - despite the strong performance in the second half against UNC.

The reality is, I don’t think he's a great post defender. But I think we kind of knew that, right? I think that was the trade-off in moving on from Federiko Federiko to Corhen: give up a bit on post defense and rim protection and add post scoring.

That was understood in the offseason, I think, and it has more or less played out that way. Corhen is able to finish in the paint much better than Federiko ever did, and he’s an actual threat to score in the paint much more than Federiko ever was.

In fact, I think you could probably go back a year and find plenty of Pitt fans who would have willingly taken an offense-for-defense trade like that after watching Federiko be a complete non-factor.

But I digress. Because this isn’t about Corhen vs. Federiko.

It’s about Corhen vs. Guillermo Diaz Graham.

For most of the season, Guillermo has been the starting four and Corhen has been the starting five. Those two have played together for far more possessions than they have been apart. And according to EvanMiya.com, the lineups with both centers playing together have been some of Pitt’s most efficient on both ends of the court.

And yet, I can’t help but wonder if Guillermo shouldn’t get more time playing center by himself.

Whereas Evan Miya says Pitt is +46 with both centers playing together and +45 with just Guillermo, my math says Pitt is +39 in ACC games with Guillermo at the five and minus-43 with anybody else playing that spot.

There are a lot of factors that go into those numbers - it’s never just about one player - but man, that’s a huge disparity. And yes, sample size is a factor, too; Pitt has used Guillermo by himself for a little less than 40 minutes in ACC games. But in a way, that might be even more impressive, because being +39 in 38:54 seems like it’s pretty good.

And in 17 stretches during ACC games where Guillermo has played center, Pitt has been outscored just four times.

Again, sample size is relevant, but so are the counting numbers: Pitt has been 39 points better than its conference opponents when playing this kind of lineup.

Now, I’m not going to go too far with this. I don’t think Corhen should be benched or limited to 10 minutes per game, especially not after how he played against UNC. But I do think there is room for this team to use more of an even split with the minutes at center. Neither Corhen nor Guillermo needs to play all of the minutes there, but Guillermo’s minutes could get a bit closer to Corhen’s. Maybe 22 for Corhen, 15 for Guillermo and the other few minutes for Papa Amadou Kante (he can bring some energy and a few fouls to give in any game).

I think it would be really interesting to see what that kind of rotation would look like. Guillermo’s minutes at center have been pretty limited, but in the Clemson game he played 11:30 and against UNC he played 12:14; in that combined 23:44, Pitt was +19.

I don’t know. It feels like that’s worth exploring more. Matchups and foul trouble and the hot hand will always go a long way in making some of these personnel decisions, but being almost one point-per-minute better than your opponent when using a certain lineup…I don’t know hoops as well as a lot of people, but that seems good.

Is the defense improving?

Every team has flaws, and Pitt certainly has its share.

There’s the rebounding, which hasn’t been good and probably won’t get much better over the rest of the season. The Panthers are who they are, and they’ve been out-rebounded, on average, by nine boards per game against ACC opponents this season.

Even in the wins at Syracuse and against North Carolina, Pitt got out-rebounded by 17 and 10, respectively. The only time the Panthers out-rebounded an ACC opponent this season was the win over Stanford (Pitt was +11). They also tied with Cal on the glass in that game.

That’s just who they are, and I don’t know if it can improve all that much.

There’s another area that looked like a flaw and likely will continue to be, but just might have the potential for upward movement:

Defense.

For all of Pitt’s issues in the four-game losing streak - and there were a few - defense was right near the top of the list. Duke, Louisville, Florida State and Clemson all shot above their season shooting percentage, and the latter three all scored above their per-game average against Pitt.

It was especially bad in the second halves of those games. Duke shot a whopping 60.9% from the field in the final 20 minutes. Louisville shot 51.5%. Florida State hit 58.3%. And Clemson “only” shot 42.1%.

There weren’t a lot of missed shots in the second halves of those games, so in addition to Pitt’s slow starts - that’s another one of the issues - the Panthers undermined their comeback efforts by allowing a boatload of made baskets.

Against Syracuse and North Carolina, Pitt still needed a comeback effort. But this time the Panthers helped their own cause by playing much better defense in the second half. At Syracuse, Pitt shot nearly 60% in the second half and held the Orange under 40%.

Against UNC, the Panthers only shot 33.3% but held the Tar Heels to 21 points on 31% shooting.

This Pitt team can score most of the time. The guards are talented at getting into the lane to finish or draw contact, and I think the shooters are good enough to command attention on the perimeter.

But they have to defend. They have to get better at defending so that those first-half deficits stop happening. And they have to be able to close out games with defense like they did against UNC.

The offense will give them a chance in just about every game they play. But they can’t rely on only offense to win. Whether it’s an X’s and O’s change or simply more commitment and effort from the players - Jeff Capel seemed to imply that after the game on Tuesday night - the defense has to get better.

These last two games, at least in the second half, were steps in the right direction.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt’s resume will keep the Panthers in the Tournament

It’s January 31, which means it’s almost February.

Which means it’s almost time to watch the resume updates every day (even more than we already do).

Which means we’ll be scoreboard-watching and constantly considering scenarios and how they impact Pitt’s chances at making the NCAA Tournament.

For now, things look pretty good. The Panthers are No. 33 in the NET and inside the top 45 in most major rankings. They only have one win in Quad 1 games, but just as crucially - and perhaps even more so - they do not have any losses in Quad 2, 3 or 4 games.

That’s a perfect 13-0 record, including 4-0 in Quad 2 games, all of which were against teams in the top 70 of the NET.

That’s all very good.

Also very good is Pitt’s strength of schedule - particularly the non-conference strength of schedule, which ranks in the top 50 nationally.

That’s big. Really big.

I’ve said this a million times, but the things that really killed Pitt’s postseason hopes last year were the non-conference strength of schedule and a couple of Quad 3 losses (Missouri and Syracuse at home) with not enough good wins to offset them (4-6 vs. Quad 1 and 5-3 vs. Quad 2).

So far, both of those concerns have been alleviated, from what I can see. No, the Quad 1 record isn’t good - 1-6 as of Friday morning - but 13-0 against the other three quadrants and a top-50 non-conference strength of schedule are both vast improvements.

Necessary improvements that should, in my opinion, have the Panthers in position to make the Tournament field.

There’s still work to do, obviously. There are four Quad 1 games left on the schedule, starting with the game at Wake Forest this Saturday, followed by back-to-back road trips to UNC and SMU and then a game at Louisville on March 1.

It would be huge for Pitt to get a win in at least one of those. That would go a long way in cementing the Panthers’ spot.

And then they have to take care of business in the other six games. At the very least, they can’t afford to lose any of the Quad 3 or 4 games - home vs. Virginia, Miami, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Boston College - and it would be ideal to keep the perfect Quad 2 run going with the games at Notre Dame and at N.C. State.

If Pitt can win one of the Quad 1 games and all of the Quad 3 and 4 games, that would give the Panthers 20 wins. Split the Notre Dame and N.C. State games, and Pitt’s record would be 21-10 overall, 2-9 in Quad 1 games, 5-1 in Quad 2 games and 14-0 in Quad 3/4 games with a top-50 strength of schedule.

That should get the Panthers.

If they can’t get one of those Quad 1 games, it will be a little dicier. But taking care of business in the other seven games should - should - get the job done (even if they would be leaving a bit more doubt than they intended to).

I would say it’s probably better to grab another Quad 1 win - tomorrow at Wake Forest would be a good target - and lock things up a bit more. The resume is in place with everything Pitt has accomplished so far; now the Panthers have 11 games to make sure they don’t get left out again.