The 3-2-1 Column: The QBs, the schedule, what's needed and more

In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're looking ahead to the second half of the season. What does Pitt need from its quarterbacks? How many games can the Panthers win? And is one player poised to break out?

All that and more in this week's 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The quarterback competition
Jim spent time on this topic last week, but I haven’t had a chance to chime in and I’ve got a few thoughts on it, so I’m going to dive in here.

Simply put, the 2024 quarterback competition starts right now.

Pat Narduzzi won’t say that. He might not even see it that way. To some extent, he probably shouldn’t see it that way. Narduzzi and his staff should be focused on doing whatever they can to salvage whatever they can from the 2023 season.

It’s easy for you and me to say the season is lost and they should put all their efforts into focusing on 2024, but coaches can’t say that. Really, they can’t do that. They can’t, under any circumstances, convey to their team that they have given up and they’re turning their focus to the next season.

They just can’t do it. And I understand that.

But at the same time, they have to know the reality - or the dual realities - of what this season is and what needs to happen for next year.

And what needs to happen for next year is this:

Pitt needs to a find a quarterback. And more to the point, Pitt needs to find out whether it has a quarterback or if it needs to go get one.

Because if Christian Veilleux and/or Nate Yarnell can’t be counted on for the future, then there’s an absolute pressure on landing a good - emphasis on “good” - quarterback this offseason.

Yes, that would be the third offseason in a row that Pitt would be looking for a starting quarterback in the transfer portal. And while that’s less than ideal, I’m not going to get too hung up on it; the Mark Whipple years produced very little in the way of high school quarterback prospects, and getting immediate help from a portal quarterback is not a disgraceful move.

It’s an essential one.

If you need it.

And we’ll find out if Pitt needs it.

That’s certainly one of the most interesting storylines we’ll all be watching over the next seven games. Probably the most interesting storyline to watch over the next seven games.

Because no matter what happens in terms of results in these games, there will be a whole lot of pressure for success in 2024. And that means the play at quarterback has to be a lot better than it has been over the last two seasons.

So the search starts now: Is it Veilleux? Is it Yarnell? Or does it need to be a new guy?

We’ll find out, and that starts tomorrow.

Just be average
I keep coming back to a certain phrase as I think about the first five games of 2023.

“Average quarterback play”

I’m all about setting the bar low, but I can’t shake the feeling of what this season could have been with just that:

Average quarterback play

As in, the quarterback not being a detriment, not being a reason - or maybe the reason - the team loses.

And when I look at the four losses this season, it sure feels like average quarterback play could have changed a few of the outcomes.

We’ll set aside the North Carolina game. Pitt was probably never going to stop the Tar Heels’ offense and I highly doubt there’s a quarterback on the roster who could out-duel Drake Maye. That one was a loss and we’ll count it as one.

But Cincinnati, West Virginia and Virginia Tech?

I’m fairly certain that average quarterback play would have won those games.

What constitutes average quarterback play? Let’s try to define it.

According to Pro Football Focus, 56 Power Five quarterbacks have dropped back at least 125 times so far this season, running the gamut from Heisman frontrunners like Michael Penix and Caleb Williams to guys who have been benched like Brennan Armstrong and, well, Phil Jurkvoec.

Yeah, Pitt’s five-game starter is near the bottom of that list. He’s actually dead last among those 56 quarterbacks in completion percentage. Jurkovec completed 50.9% of his passes this season; Oregon’s Bo Nix leads those 56 Power Five quarterbacks with an 80% completion rate.

In the middle of that list is Wisconsin’s Tanner Mordecai (No. 28 at 63.8%) and Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart (No. 29 at 63.7%). Mordecai and Dart are among the seven quarterbacks in this data set with completion percentages of 63 and change.

So let’s call that average. If Jurkovec hit 63% in the Cincinnati game, he would have completed 20-of-32 as opposed to 10-of-32. WVU would have been 13-of-20 instead of 8-of-20. And Virginia Tech would have been 14-of-22 instead of 11-of-22.

(I know that it’s not as simple as that; more completions would have extended drives, thus likely leading to more pass attempts. But let’s roll with it just to play out the hypothetical for a minute).

As far as touchdowns, it’s a little tougher to project an increase because Jurkovec’s six touchdown passes rank No. 44 among the 56 qualifying Power Five quarterbacks; the mode on that stat is nine. Eight quarterbacks are tied at No. 29 in touchdown passes with nine.

If you brought Jurkovec’s six touchdowns up to nine - which isn’t exactly a ton of touchdowns over five games - does it change the outcome of many games? One additional touchdown would have won the Cincinnati game. And I think West Virginia is a possibility; Pitt lost that one by 11, so adding one extra touchdown wouldn’t do the trick. But adding an extra touchdown and removing one or two of the interceptions - those plays led to 10 points for WVU - could probably swing the outcome.

Virginia Tech is a tougher sell because of how bad the defense was at tackling. But Jurkovec was pretty bad in that game, with five completions through the first 54 minutes; a little more production there could have changed the way that one went.

My point is this:

Jurkovec didn’t need to put up Penix numbers. He didn’t need to throw 22 touchdowns like Williams has. He just needed to be okay. He needed to be average. What we’re talking about here - 63% completion percentage, nine touchdowns, two interceptions, maybe 1,100 yards - these aren’t numbers that would put Jurkovec in the top 10 of Power Five quarterbacks nationally. For the most part, they would barely crack the top 30.

And yet, top-30 quarterback play would have this team at 3-2, at worst, and probably 4-1.

All of this is a long way of saying, if Veilleux (or Yarnell) can just be average, the team might be able to start building some drives and establishing a bit more effective offense.

The path ahead
It’s a weird time right now. At 1-4, Pitt’s outlook is pretty bleak. It can turn around, of course, but it’s reasonable to ask just what, exactly, it can be even if it does turn around.

We have to be realistic about the final seven games and what Pitt can do there, because any success the Panthers find will inevitably depend on them making improvement - any improvement - over that stretch.

And given that Pitt hasn’t really shown any improvement through the first five games, it’s tough to conceive of improvement in the final seven.

I mean, I think there will be improvement. But we haven’t seen any yet, so we can’t exactly count on it.

That said, let’s talk about the seven games left on the schedule.

There’s Louisville this weekend. The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the nation, and that’s not hyperbole: they jumped 11 spots in the Associated Press poll this week, checking in at No. 14 after beating Notre Dame at home last Saturday. They have a balanced offensive attack under Jeff Brohm, with a dynamic quarterback leading the way and the ACC’s leading rusher averaging 7.5 yards per carry out of the backfield.

The Cardinals’ defense is pretty good, too; they sacked Sam Hartman five times and forced him into three interceptions last week. Pitt fans have a certain perception of Hartman based on prior experience, but Louisville got after him more than anybody else has this season.

So that’s a tough one.

After that, Pitt goes to Wake Forest, and while the Deacons are 3-2, they haven’t exactly been good this season. They’re struggling to find their way on offense and have been vulnerable on defense.

Next comes a trip to Notre Dame, which has lost two of three after opening the season 4-0. The Irish are experiencing considerable struggles on offense and they have No. 10 USC coming to South Bend this weekend before hosting Pitt, so ND could be 5-3 and in a slide by the time that game happens.

Florida State comes to town after that, and yeah, that’s going to be tough. But Pitt goes to the Bronx to face Syracuse at Yankee Stadium in the next game, and the Orange have been true to form this season: stacking early wins against lesser competition and then losing both games in ACC play by a combined score of 71-21.

Pitt hosts Boston College on a Thursday night in the penultimate game of the season, and the Eagles are one of the other teams in the bottom tier of the ACC (along with Pitt). In the season finale, the Panthers will go to Duke, who have been one of the surprise teams in the conference but are currently mired in questions about the return of star quarterback Riley Leonard.

Why am I doing a season preview for the final seven games? Because as I look over that schedule, there are tiers:

- There’s FSU and Louisville, two very good teams who will be tough to beat.

- There’s Notre Dame and Duke, who look like challenges but have some question marks.

- And there’s Wake Forest, Syracuse and Boston College, who have been better than Pitt this season but not by that much.

Those teams don’t fit perfectly into those groups, but it’s more or less accurate. And I’m breaking it down like this because I’m going to come back to the point about average play:

With just average play and a little improvement, Pitt can beat those bottom three teams. And with average play and a little improvement, Pitt can have a shot at the two teams in the middle tier.

I’m not saying they’ll win all of those games we’re discussing, but with a little improvement, the Panthers can compete in them. I don’t think they’ll beat Louisville or Florida State, but if they have made some improvement in the last two weeks and they can make a little more in the next week or so heading into Wake Forest, they can win some games.

This doesn’t have to be a two-win season. Or even three. This team can claw its way back to five wins (an admittedly low bar to aim for). The remaining schedule has some tough teams on it, but there are some opportunities for wins in there.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How much of Pitt’s success came from super seniors?
From time to time, I see a contention on the message boards or on social media that Pitt’s success in 2021 and 2022 was built almost entirely on the back of super seniors.

I’ve also seen it suggested that Pat Narduzzi’s most successful run - 20 wins over the two aforementioned seasons - came from players being able to return due to the Covid extra year.

So I figured we could look at it. Here are the players who spent a year at Pitt as super seniors:

2021: Kenny Pickett, AJ Davis, Taysir Mack, Melquise Stovall, Tre Tipton, Lucas Krull, Jake Zilinskas, Keldrick Wilson, Keyshon Camp, Phil Campbell, John Petrishen, Chase Pine, Cal Adomitis

2022: Derek Kyler, Owen Drexel, Gabe Houy, Marcus Minor, Carter Warren, Deslin Alexandre, Tylar Wiltz

2023: Phil Jurkovec, C’Bo Flemister, Malcolm Epps, Jake Kradel, Blake Zubovic, Devin Danielson, David Green, Shayne Simon, Marquis Williams, AJ Woods

Obviously, the big one there is in the 2021 group: Kenny Pickett. But the reality is, Pickett would have been able to return to Pitt’s roster that season even if the Covid rules never came in. He played four games in 2017, which would have been under the threshold for taking a redshirt - except the redshirt rule didn’t change until 2018, so he missed that window.

But there’s a better-than-even chance he would have gotten a waiver for an extra year, since the NCAA was fairly giving in that regard for players who just missed out on the change in the redshirt rules.

So Pickett would have been back in 2021, regardless of the Covid rules.

Now, Lucas Krull is a different story. He was out of eligibility after 2020 and was only able to return in 2021 as a super senior. Ditto for Phil Campbell and John Petrishen, who were significant contributors on the ACC championship team. But I’m not sure you would describe many of the other guys on that list in the same way.

Super seniors were definitely going to make a big impact on the 2022 team, though. All of those offensive linemen coming back - that was huge for Pitt as it looked to follow up on the conference title, and that could have been a year when the claim that the Panthers benefited more from the Covid rules than most teams would have been valid.

Except all of those returning linemen never played a game together. Marcus Minor played all season, but Owen Drexel, Carter Warren and Gabe Houy were all limited by injury. Tylar Wiltz was a good player who used his super senior year at Pitt, so we’ll count him.

Fast forward to this year, and you’ve got quite a few contributors from the super senior class - including a bunch of starters. But the team is 1-4, and saying that “Pitt’s getting all of its success from the Covid rule” rings a bit hollow when there isn’t much, you know, success.

So if we look over the two successful seasons where super seniors made an impact, I don’t think you see anything all that different from what most teams probably experienced. I don’t think Pitt benefited inordinately from the rule; I think most teams got a bit of a boost over the last few years from guys who came back when they ordinarily would have been out of eligibility. I don’t think Pitt got anything too far above the norm.

And really, if you look at the guys who made Pitt go last year - Israel Abanikanda, Jared Wayne, Calijah Kancey, SirVocea Dennis, Brandon Hill, Erick Hallett - not one was a super senior.

To answer the question, then, I would say no, Pitt has not had much more benefit from the Covid rules than anybody else.

What happened to the 2021 class?
Yeah, I’m recycling this from yesterday’s Morning Pitt. But the truth is, I’ve been thinking about this for awhile, and now seemed like as good a time as any to talk about it.

For the last couple years, I’ve wondered how the 2021 recruiting class would work out. That was a class that came together under the most unique of circumstances, because we were all living under the most unique of circumstances.

It was 2020, and the Covid-19 pandemic induced an extended recruiting dead period from the NCAA. That meant no in-person visits: recruits couldn’t visit campus, coaches couldn’t visit recruits at their homes or schools, and for more than a year, coaches and recruits could not interact face-to-face.

That’s a huge piece of the recruiting process that just…didn’t happen for the recruiting class of 2021. It didn’t happen for the recruits and it didn’t happen for the coaches, depriving them of a significant source of information as each side makes the various decisions associated with the recruiting process.

So I was always curious what Pitt’s 2021 class would turn into, given those unique circumstances. And the results, so far at least, have not been good.

Let’s look at the class (which, incidentally, ranked No. 21 nationally).

In Year Three, seven players from the class of 23 are already gone. Jaden Bradley went to Charlotte. Myles Alston went to Old Dominion. Naquan Brown went to Norfolk State. Khalil Anderson went to East Tennessee State. Malik Newton went to West Virginia State. Preston Lavant went somewhere. Kyle Fugedi never showed up.

That’s a pretty significant hit right off the top. And when it comes to the remaining 16 players, it’s probably easier to list the guys who have made an impact so far.

Gavin Bartholomew; he’s good. Rodney Hammond; he’s good, too. Javon McIntyre; he’s looking like a multi-year starter. P.J. O’Brien; he’s in the mix. Terrence Moore; he’s starting right now (albeit due to injury, but he’ll probably start at center for the next few years).

I’m not really sure how far beyond that we can go. I guess Nate Yarnell is 1-0 as a starting quarterback, so we can call him a TBD pending further appearances. Terrence Enos is on the two-deep. Nahki Johnson and Elliot Donald have seen their first relevant snaps this season, but they haven’t exactly done a lot - particularly not when their performances are considered in relation to the expectations coming out of high school.

Trey Andersen, Dorien Ford, Noah Biglow, Stephon Hall, Tamarion Crumpley, Jake Renda, Cole Mitchell. That rounds out the class, and there’s just not a lot going on there.

Certainly not what you would hope for out of a top-25 recruiting class. And this is Year Three - the point when recruits should start making an impact.

But it isn’t happening.

The defensive line is a big problem. The 2021 class was supposed to rebuild the defensive line and provide the foundation going forward. After all, that class was populated by Donald, Johnson, Brown and Ford - three four-star recruits and a top local defensive tackle.

You don’t need me to spell it out here.

Brown is gone. Ford moved to the offensive line. Johnson and Donald are still looking to make an impact.

That group was supposed to provide a much-needed reload to the defensive line, and it hasn’t happened. That’s a big part of the problem this season.

Now, one missed recruiting class can be covered for; the transfer portal and subsequent recruiting can help make up for it. But I think Pitt is feeling it right now with the class of 2021.

ONE PREDICTION

Dayon Hayes will break out
Another thing I’ve said a few times this week (and probably before), but I’m going to the well again.

I think Dayon Hayes is on the verge of breakout. Maybe even this week against Louisville. The Cardinals are eighth in the ACC in sacks allowed, having given up 11 in six games so far (No. 54 nationally in sacks allowed per game), so perhaps there’s going to be an opportunity on Saturday.

But I’m more interested in Hayes individually. He has two sacks this season - one against Wofford, one against Cincinnati - and those are the only two plays he has made behind the line of scrimmage.

Not exactly what you want from your top pass-rusher (or the guy you expected to be your top pass-rusher).

But I think Hayes is close. He has recorded 21 pressures this season, according to Pro Football Focus; that ranks No. 24 among all FBS edge rushers, No. 17 among all Power Five edge rushers and No. 7 among all ACC edge rushers.

Hayes is getting into the backfield; he just needs to finish plays. Because in addition to being No. 7 among ACC edge rushers in total pressures, he’s also No. 2 among conference edge rushers in missed tackles with eight (that’s how many PFF has charged him with).

But if you tell me I can have my choice between the guy who’s getting into the backfield but not finishing plays and the guy who can’t beat the offensive tackle to even get into the backfield in the first place, I’ll take the guy who is getting there. I would much rather coach a guy on the fundamentals of wrapping up and tackling than have to teach a guy how to get around the edge.

Hayes is getting around the edge. He’s getting into the backfield. He just needs to finish.

And I think he will.

More often than not, sacks seem to come in bunches. Calijah Kancey had 7.5 sacks last season; he got 3.5 of those against Virginia. Patrick Jones had nine sacks in 2020; six of those nine came when he had three against Louisville and three at Boston College. Ditto for Rashad Weaver that year; four of his 7.5 sacks came in two games. And the same for Jaylen Twyman the year before; 10.5 sacks and six of them happened in two games.

You’d like to have a pass-rusher who gets a sack every game, but it’s usually much more up and down than that.

Hayes has been down so far this year. I think he’s going to hit the up part of the cycle a few times over the next seven games.