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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about Pitt on the brink of something, the final five, the fault in the offense and more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

This is a big moment
Maybe it’s because of the off week.

You know, we’ve all had an extra week to sit around and think about this point in the season and talk about where Pitt’s at and write about The Final Five and The Stretch Run and all of that - I know this because I thought about and talked about and wrote about all of those things over the last two weeks.

So maybe it’s because of the off week. We had all of that time and no Pitt football to watch - only Pitt football to think about. And as we kept thinking about Pitt football and the first seven games and the final five games and a 3-4 overall record but a 2-1 ACC record and a Coastal Division that seems to be wide open and five beatable opponents left on the schedule…

Well, the mind wanders. And on this particular week, it has been wandering into big-picture territory. Because I can’t sit here on the eve of Pitt’s game against Duke and not think that we’re also on the eve of one of the most important stretches in recent Pitt history.

Maybe “important” isn’t the right word. Maybe “pivotal” is a better fit for the situation. Because Pat Narduzzi and his staff, his players, his program are about embark on a five-game stretch that could go a long way in determining what - and maybe who - the future holds.

Do this thing right, win three out of five or four out of five or five out of five, and Pitt can go into the offseason having returned to the postseason and potentially carrying some momentum. Do it wrong by winning two or less of these five, and the questions that were TBD’d after the Miami game last year get something much closer to a definitive answer.

Through the first seven games, the answers Narduzzi has delivered about the state of his program have not been good. Pitt didn’t look like it belonged on the same field with UCF, and against Penn State, the final score was a bit more dramatic than the game itself, but Pitt still looked very sloppy, very unprepared and generally seemed to be a mess.

And then there was the North Carolina game - excuse me, that damn North Carolina game - that stacks up as the latest and arguably worst loss to that particular program (a distinction that has some strong competition but still seems appropriate).

So no, 2018 has not been a banner year for the Pitt football program. But Narduzzi and company have an opportunity - five opportunities - that not every school is afforded: they can finish very strong and make a statement about who they are and where they’re going. This program has had the flash-in-the-pan hits over the last few years, beating Clemson on the road and Miami at home; now Narduzzi needs something he hasn’t been able to achieve since the midpoint of his first year - consistency.

Put together something consistent, something productive, something effective over these final five games. Show that things are headed in the right direction. Show that a competitive product is being constructed. That’s what can be done in the next month. And while I think only the most extreme and unlikely circumstances would cause Narduzzi’s seat to overheat this offseason, I think finishing strong in this stretch can go a long way in keeping the seat-warmers turned off for a little while.

Is all of that really at stake in these five games? With seemingly as much bad as there is good in the Narduzzi era - he is 20-21 against FBS competition since coming to Pitt - it feels like the stakes are high and there’s a lot riding on this stretch.

We’ll see if that’s true a month from now. But I think there will be a statement made one way or the other.

These are beatable opponents
Part of what makes this stretch so tantalizing and such an opportunity is that the five teams left on Pitt’s schedule are all very much beatable.

That’s not the same as saying that Pitt is better than all five teams; rather, I’m saying that can beat each of these teams. While four out of the five have better records than Pitt, not one is so far and above in talent or execution that they cannot be beat.

Virginia? Duke? Wake Forest? Virginia Tech? Even Miami? Pitt can beat these teams. You know they can. Even if you are severely down on this year’s Pitt squad and feel equally down about the coaching staff, you know that these games are within reach.

To a large extent, that’s why these final five games are so important and feel so pivotal: these are teams Pitt can beat, but if the Panthers fail to do so, it’s going to say a lot about where the program is under Narduzzi.

For the most part over the first three years of the Narduzzi era - and certainly in the first two years - the Panthers very much took care of business against teams they should have a reasonable chance of beating, teams they were either equal to or greater than. The occasional stumble against North Carolina aside, you can’t really point to any bad losses in those first two seasons.

Last year, things got a little less, um, promising. I wouldn’t say the losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse were bad, per se, but those were two teams Narduzzi had beaten in 2015 and 2016; losing to them swung the momentum on the season and ultimately cost Pitt a bowl game.

That’s not an exaggeration. If you’ve read this column or listened to the podcast in the past, you’ve heard me talk about the swing games that appear on Pitt’s schedule annually: Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, Duke and North Carolina. How the Panthers do in those five games each year will determine what they do in the postseason.

In 2015, Pitt went 4-1. In 2016, the Panthers were 3-2. Last year, they were 2-3, and losing records against those five teams generally mean you’re staying home for Christmas.

So far this season, Pitt is 2-1 in the swing games with two more left on the schedule: Duke this weekend and Virginia next Friday. But while I don’t consider Virginia Tech and Wake Forest to be Official Annual Swing Games (trademark pending), both of those teams would fit the category this season, because in truth, the rest of the schedule is full of swing games.

And if we say that Pitt needs to go at least 3-2 in the Official Annual Swing Games to make a bowl game, then it’s kind of fitting since the Panthers need to go at least 3-2 in these five games to get to the postseason.

The nonconference needs to chill
And it will…

One of the topics that came up during the off week was Pitt’s nonconference schedule which, as everyone knows, was pretty challenging this year. It’s not a huge shock that the Panthers went 0-3 against Penn State, Central Florida and Notre Dame; I think the most optimistic preseason expectations were for Pitt to win one, maybe - maybe - two of those three games.

But rather than question why Pitt is behind those three programs (although those questions have certainly been discussed) there was a lot of talk in the last two weeks about a different solution to the problem of a tough nonconference schedule:

Don’t make it so tough.

And to be honest, I agree with that approach. There’s no reason for Pitt to play a nonconference schedule that’s as tough as this one was. There’s no reason for Pitt to play more than one Power Five opponent in a season. I said this last year after the Oklahoma State game: that series accomplished nothing for Pitt. There are two goals when you schedule a series like that. You want to build a resume for the playoffs and you want to get butts in the seats.

Pitt wasn’t going to the playoffs and nobody showed up for that game, so that was a fail on both counts.

When it comes down to it, though, that series was the one real scheduling gaffe. When Steve Pederson put that one on the books, Pitt already had Penn State locked in for a four-game series; there was no reason to add Oklahoma State to two of those years.

But other than that, Pitt hasn’t really over-scheduled in the nonconference. The Notre Dame games are out of Pitt’s hands; the ACC puts those on the schedules for teams in the conference. And while Scott Frost improved UCF from winless to six wins in his first year, I don’t think anyone predicted the Knights would go undefeated in 2017, so when Pitt scheduled that series in between the 2016 and 2017 seasons, it seemed like an okay contract to sign.

Going forward, Pitt doesn’t really have many seasons with multiple Power Five teams on the schedule. Penn State is the only one in 2019 (although UCF does come to Heinz Field), Notre Dame is the only one in 2020 and Tennessee is the only one in 2021. In 2022, the second game of the Tennessee series overlaps with the first game of the West Virginia series - both of those are at home, so the attendance should be pretty strong that year - but WVU is the only Power Five team on the schedule in 2023 and 2024.

In 2025, Notre Dame will come to Heinz Field, so Pitt has to face the Irish and the Mountaineers. But that’s the last game of the WVU series; Pitt’s two-game deal with Wisconsin starts the next year. Again, though, there are no other Power Five teams on the schedule in those seasons.

So while this year’s schedule was tough, overall I don’t think Pitt has really killed itself with over-scheduling. 2016 and 2017 were the exceptions, where Oklahoma State was a needless add with Penn State already lined up.

For the future, it seems like the Pitt administration understands that wins are more important than “name” opponents (unless it’s PSU, WVU or ND, of course).

TWO QUESTIONS

Whose fault is it anyway?
To some extent, the blame for Pitt’s anemic passing game should be spread a lot more than the ball has been this season.

Hi-yo.

But seriously folks, there’s no “to some extent” qualifier needed. Pitt has had one of the worst passing attacks in the nation - no exaggeration; the only teams averaging fewer passing yards per game are either held back by an option offense or by being Rutgers - and the reasons are plentiful.

If you want to say it’s Kenny Pickett, you’ll get no argument from me. If you want to put it on the offensive line or the other elements of pass protection, there’s a case to be made. If you want to blame the receivers, the film shows some issues there. And if you want to lay this at the feet of Shawn Watson, that’s hard to debate.

The truth is, all of those elements have factored into the poor play. This isn’t 2007 when the quarterback was clearly the biggest problem in the passing game. Every part of the operation has under-performed this season, from the play-calling to the execution up front to the decision-making of the quarterback.

It would be great to get a coach to be completely honest and say, “It’s this one thing.” But I remember one time we were interviewing Paul Chryst and asked him about issues with taking sacks after a week when that part of the offense was a problem. He basically said that it depends on which coach you talk to. If you ask the offensive line coach, he’ll tell you that his unit didn’t block well enough. If you ask the receivers coach, he’ll tell you his guys didn’t run sharp enough routes. If you ask the quarterbacks coach - Chryst himself - he’ll tell you that the quarterback didn’t get rid of the ball quickly enough.

And every one of those coaches would be telling you the truth. They wouldn’t be pretending that the other units didn’t have their own issues, but they would sincerely believe that their own position group didn’t perform well enough.

It’s part of the whole football-is-the-ultimate-team-game thing, and if you’ve ever read any of the film breakdowns that Josh Hammack or Pat Bostick provide to us, you know that you really do need all 11 guys - or at least 9 or 10 of them - doing the right thing to make any given play work.

But this isn’t just about placing blame, because identifying the issues and then, in an ideal world, correcting them is of the utmost importance right now. Watson, line coach Dave Borbely, receivers coach Kevin Sherman, tight ends coach Tim Salem and running backs coach Andre Powell - all of them - need to have found some answers over the last week.

They each went into the off week with a responsibility to find something to fix, something they could correct with an extra week of practice and preparation. Finding the fault and placing the blame is only a good strategy if you turn that fault and that blame into something productive. And that’s exactly what Pitt needs to have done during this off week.

We all know that this stretch of five games will get quite a bit harder if the issues in the passing game weren’t corrected or at least slightly improved. So there may not have been a more important task during the off week than fixing whatever can be fixed.

Does it matter who the backup quarterback is?
I pictured a newsboy on the corner this week.

“Extra! Extra! Read all about it! Jeff George Jr. is Pitt’s backup quarterback!”

Maybe the headline would read, “By George - Jeff Jr. is No. 2!”

That was this week’s big news: Pat Narduzzi said at his Monday press conference that Jeff George Jr., the graduate transfer from Illinois by way of a month or two at Michigan, would be the next quarterback on the field if something happened to Kenny Pickett.

That’s a change from the official depth chart, which still lists redshirt junior Ricky Town as the backup. Town, of course, is the former four-star prospect who went to USC and then Arkansas and then a junior college before joining the Panthers last January. He’s been the listed backup all season, but apparently George Jr. unseated him in that role at some point in the two months since he arrived on campus.

That’s as long as George Jr. has been here: roughly two months. He arrived after training camp ended in the third week of August, coming to Pitt after spending the summer at Michigan, where he enrolled as a walk-on after three seasons at Illinois. He played in 12 total games and started nine for the Illini, most recently making five starts last season and throwing for 1,273 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

He went to Michigan as a graduate transfer, and apparently you can do that twice in the same offseason, because he came to Pitt with the same status and immediate eligibility. It’s our understanding that he walked on with the Panthers, but whatever he has done in the last two months has seemingly been good enough to put him at No. 2 behind Pickett.

That’s probably not saying a lot. Just like Pickett showed something of what he could do in the 2017 spring game, Town also showed something in this year’s spring game and it wasn’t very good. Yes, the offensive line combinations were jumbled and there were a bunch of receivers out with injuries, but Town really struggled (he completed one pass).

So even if George Jr. isn’t all that, he’s still probably a little better than Town; that’s probably a safe conclusion to draw after this week’s news.

My question is, does it really matter? No, Pickett hasn’t played very well, but I still think he’s probably Pitt’s best option. I say that with no real info on George Jr. aside from his numbers at Illinois, and while Pickett’s numbers so far this season aren’t really at the level of “okay,” he still has more touchdowns than interceptions, which is not the case with George Jr.

Look, I’m all about the Hollywood story where the backup comes in and turns the season around. To some extent, Pickett did that last year. I just think that the coaches will be sticking with Pickett, and if something happens to him, then we’ll see what happens.

I’m just not sure it will make much of a difference if those other issues aren’t corrected.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt will win
The last time I went out on this particular limb was the Syracuse game, and since that one worked out okay for the home team, I’m going there again.

I think Pitt wins this week. Not because Duke has a bad record against the spread and hasn’t done well in ACC games when it’s been favored. And not because Duke has been one of the few ACC teams Pitt has been able to beat consistently since joining the conference (the Panthers are 4-1 against the Blue Devils, better than they have been better record than they have against any team they’ve faced at least twice other than Syracuse).

Those kinds of things - record against the spread, historical matchups - don’t mean too much to me unless we’re talking about North Carolina. They’re interesting factoids and trends that are worth bringing up when they are reinforced or broken, but in terms of things that will actually affect the results on the field, they mean very little to me.

What’s more relevant to me is something like the ground game: while it’s been a priority for Pitt to stop the run, the Panthers actually haven’t done that great a job at it. Georgia Tech had its regular 300+ rushing yards, but Penn State ran for 211 yards, North Carolina and Syracuse each topped 170 and Central Florida went for 240 on the ground against Pitt.

That’s not good. The defense showed up against Notre Dame’s rushing attack, holding the Irish to 80 yards on 38 attempts, and the Panthers will need to be equally stifling on Saturday. Duke had an impressive stretch when it rushed for 597 yards and five touchdowns in wins over Baylor and N.C. Central, but in the three games since then, the Blue Devils have averaged 75.7 yards per game on the ground.

Pitt has to make sure that continues. And then Panthers also have to pick up on Virginia’s success last Saturday, as the Cavaliers rushed for 178 against the Blue Devils.

I think Pitt can do both of those things - run the ball and stop the run - as well as it did last year in Durham.

As for the pass, Duke QB Daniel Jones has been okay in his previous two starts against Pitt: 515 total passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception in a pair of losses. But he hasn’t been as strong in his last three games this season, with five touchdowns and four interceptions against a steadily falling completion percentage.

Add in some key injuries, and this is a Duke team that Pitt can beat. And despite the spread, I think it’s a Duke team that Pitt should beat. So I’ll predict that Pitt will beat this Duke team.