The 3-2-1 Column: The pass, the defense, beating UNC and more

MORE HEADLINES - Video: Narduzzi's final talk before UNC | Film preview: What to look for from UNC | Inside the numbers: Pitt's offense after three games | Inside the numbers: A closer look at the defense | Analysis of 10 key plays in Pitt's win over Georgia Tech | What's happening to Pitt's offense after halftime? | Mailbag: The film room edition | Film review: What stood out in the Georgia Tech game?

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about Pitt’s passing game, who the Panthers’ real defense is and whether 2018 is finally the year to beat UNC.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Tell me that it’s evolution
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before:

Pitt’s passing game has some major question marks.

I know, I know - huge breaking news there, and definitely an observation no one has made yet. That’s why we’re here folks: to give you all the latest and greatest from the world of Pitt football.

But seriously, we’ve been writing about Pitt’s passing game and the uncertainties therein (thereof?) for longer than three weeks. As far back as spring camp, we were writing about the two biggest question marks on offense being at wide receiver and the offensive line, and both of those are directly tied to the passing game and the success thereof (I think I got it right that time).

So far, the numbers don’t look good. Pitt is averaging 140.3 passing yards per game after three games, which puts the Panthers are No. 120 nationally. So they’re still ahead of the option teams like Army and Georgia Tech and Navy and Georgia Southern and Air Force, as well as Rutgers, Northern Illinois and UTEP, who are a combined 2-7.

In fact, UNLV is the only non-option team with a winning record that ranks below Pitt in passing offense; despite having a good quarterback in Armani Rogers, the Rebels are staying on the ground this season and averaging nearly 350 rushing yards per game, although Rogers has also thrown six touchdown passes, so that part of the offense isn’t totally gone.

Of course, Pitt’s passing game was held back considerably in the loss to Penn State, when the weather conditions made life quite difficult (even PSU QB Trace McSorley was under 50% completions that night) and the Panthers finished with a grand total of 55 passing yards.

Weather wasn’t an issue last Saturday against Georgia Tech, though, and things got a little better. Kenny Pickett completed 16-of-23 for 197 yards, and even though he was picked off once and didn’t throw a touchdown pass, the game represented improvement.

That’s the key: improvement. Development. Progress.

Evolution.

Pitt’s passing game needs to evolve on a multi-game arc, with each performance building on the last. The Georgia Tech game was better than the Penn State game. Now the North Carolina game has to be better than the Georgia Tech game.

And to put a finer point on it, Pickett has to evolve. He has to be better this week than he was last week. And then he needs to be better against Central Florida in two weeks than he is against UNC this week.

There’s been a general resetting of the Legend of Kenny Pickett, a legend born in the Miami game last November and built throughout the offseason. But when he got to the 2018 season opener, he was still a quarterback with one career start - and, to some extent, he played like it. But with each week of the season, he’s got a chance to build that Legend into something tangible, something sustainable.

As he evolves, so will the passing game evolve, and that will mean good things for those receivers. Taysir Mack has looked legit in limited opportunities (that’s all anyone has gotten in the passing game so far: limited opportunities). Rafael Araujo-Lopes looks like he can fill the role he carved out for himself last season. And there’s an opening for a third receiver to emerge; more on that later, but the larger point stands:

All of this will evolve together. As Pickett goes, so goes the receiving corps and, in total, the success of the passing game. If everyone keeps improving, there is potential for an effective air attack.

Say you got a real solution
Some problems don’t have an easy explanation. Some issues have a broad enough array of sources that it gets complicated to determine what exactly is causing them.

That’s where I’m at with Pitt’s offense in the second half of games. This has been a pretty significant topic this season since, you know, the Panthers haven’t scored a touchdown after halftime yet and they’re getting outscored 56-3 in the third and fourth quarters of their three games.

What’s behind that? Why can’t Pitt score after visiting the locker room at mid-game?

I wish there was an easy answer to that. And I bet Pitt really wishes there was an easy answer to that. But there isn’t.

The Panthers have run 16 drives in the second halves of games this season (not counting three game-ending drives). Only one of those 16 produced points, and it was a field goal in the Georgia Tech game. The other 15 drives?

There were four that ended in turnovers (out of Pitt’s six total turnovers this season).

There were three that were doomed by bad penalties (two false starts and two holdings, with one drive getting one of each and resulting in a safety).

And two more started at or inside the Pitt 5-yard line (one of the turnover drives started there, too).

That’s nine of the 15, and none are really connectable, aside from the penalties (they were all pretty bad). Even the turnovers were all different, whether it was Kenny Pickett dropping the ball when he was trying to leap over an Albany defender or an interception on a trick play close to the red zone against Georgia Tech.

For whatever reason, things have happened in the second half of games. But we’ll come back to the evolution theme again: as Pickett evolves and the passing game evolves, so too will the offense evolve. Because the lack of a passing game is definitely making it difficult for Pitt to run the ball in the second half, which is what the Panthers want to do.

Consider that Pitt has rushed for 444 yards in the first half this season but just 177 after halftime. That’s not unconnected to the fact that the Panthers have had relatively uninspiring passing numbers in both halves all season; the rushing attack has been the stronger element in Pitt’s offense, and once defenses turned their focus to the run game after halftime, the passing attack hasn’t been able to make up the difference and the offense as a whole has suffered.

If there’s a single solution for the second-half woes, then, it’s probably this: the passing game has to get better. Get more effective play out of Pickett and the passing attack and things should open up for the running game. Get both elements going and Pitt’s offense can be tough to stop.

You better free your mind instead
Have you heard? Pitt hasn’t beaten North Carolina since joining the ACC. That’s five in a row and an 0-5 record against the Tar Heels dating back to Ryan Switzer’s double punt returns in 2013, through the indestructible Marquise Williams in 2014 and 2015 and the fourth-quarter heroics of Switzer and Mitch Trubisky in 2016 and into last year’s debacle at Heinz Field.

You’ve probably heard that. Pitt’s players and coaches certainly have. They’ve heard it all week from media and fans wondering if they’ll ever be able to get past those argyle-wearers from Chapel Hill.

And some of those players probably even think about it themselves. I remember before last year’s game against UNC, I asked a few former players what they thought of the series, and they said it was very frustrating to them that they never beat the Tar Heels, particularly since the losses were close and each was a game they thought they could have - and maybe should have - won.

But here’s the kicker, and it’s pretty obvious: Saturday will be a chance to beat UNC in 2018. It’s not going to change the outcomes from 2013 or 2014 or 2015 or 2016 or 2017. It’s not going to tackle Ryan Switzer on a punt return, it’s not going to sack Marquise Williams, it’s not going to make a stop on fourth down, it’s not going to keep the ball in Quadree Henderson’s hands.

It’s a chance to win in 2018. It’s a chance to get a 2-0 start in the ACC for the first time since 2015 and a 3-1 overall start for the first time since then, too. That’s what’s important, that’s what’s relevant and that’s what can be accomplished.

As such, that’s got to be the focus. And this is more in retrospect: the players need to have spent this week focused on 2018 UNC and not thinking about revenge or any other silly ideas. They have things to play for this year, and just like they spent last week focused on the triple option and not the Penn State loss, they need to have spent this week focused on the threats that UNC presents and not those bigger themes we in the media like to talk about.

And if Pitt wins on Saturday, of course I’ll be writing about how these Panthers broke the streak against Carolina and finally got in the win column. I’ll ask the players about it, too. But the chances of having that conversation are greater if the players have kept their focus during the week on the small picture.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who will be No. 3 this week?
In the ongoing development of Pitt’s receiving corps, a few things have become evident.

Taysir Mack is the No. 1 receiver. Rafael Araujo-Lopes is the No. 2 and the primary receiver out of the slot.

And the No. 3 receiver is…well, let’s see who it is this week.

The Albany game doesn’t count in this regard, since the coaches basically emptied the bench, using eight different receivers in the game, giving double-digit snaps to seven of those eight and attempting at least one pass to six of the players.

In the Penn State game, things tightened up a little bit. Only seven receivers played and just four of them saw double-digit snaps. And in that game, the No. 3 receiver after Mack and Araujo-Lopes - in terms of playing time - was freshman Shocky Jacques-Louis. He had been used sparingly in the Albany game, but given his considerable talent and explosiveness, according to the coaches, players and others who watched the team in training camp, it wasn’t too much of a surprise to see him emerge as one of the top options.

Until the Georgia Tech game, when he wasn’t one of the top options. Junior Maurice Ffrench took the No. 3 role with 33 snaps - tied with Araujo-Lopes and trailing only Mack in snaps played among receivers. Jacques-Louis, by contrast, saw far less snaps.

Typically, the coaches make decisions on personnel and usage based on what they see in practice during the week, so we can only surmise that Ffrench had a good week of practice. But it begs the question:

Who’s going to have a good week of practice this week and earn the No. 3 job? Will Ffrench hold onto it? Will Jacques-Louis take it back? Or will a dark horse like Dontavius Butler-Jenkins or Michael Smith emerge from their redshirt freshman slumber to earn a bulk of the playing time?

My guess is it will be Ffrench or Jacques-Louis. The former is an explosive athlete who has yet to flourish as a receiver; the latter has the potential to be a star as he grows in his college career.

As with so many other things we’re talking about, the production out of the third receiver - or any of the receivers, really - will depend on the evolution of Kenny Pickett. But if and when that evolution takes place, there’s some potential in the passing game.

Will the real defense stand up?
So, we’re in an interesting spot with Pitt’s defense right now.

The group did what it was supposed to do in the opener, giving up one touchdown to Albany while using eleventy-billion players. In Week Two, they held Penn State to 390 yards of total offense, which is about 100 yards less than the Nittany Lions are averaging this season. Granted, PSU scored 51 points, so that yardage total is little solace, but the defense was somewhat effective on a night that was decidedly non-standard.

And last week, Georgia Tech rushed for 320 yards, which is a lot but still below the Yellow Jackets’ NCAA-best 392 rushing yards per game. Additionally, Pitt held GT scoreless in the first half, which is no easy task.

So I think we can say Pitt’s defense has been more or less good this season, or at least we can say it has been okay. But if it seems like I’m hedging, that’s because I am - and you probably are, too. Because we just don’t know what this defense is going to do yet, do we?

The three games so far have been an FCS team, an intense rivalry in a driving rainstorm and the triple option; not one of those things is necessarily a strong indicator for what to expect in the final nine games. In each one, you can say “Yeah, but…” As in, “Yeah, but that was an FCS team” or, “Yeah, but that was the triple option.”

What is going to happen when this defense faces a “normal” offense in a “normal” game, if such things exist? There will be different offenses every week, of course, but put this defense in a weekly game against a team that favors three and four-receiver sets and uses a healthy amount of RPO’s and let’s see how these players respond.

Their predecessors over the last few years have not responded well. They found their groove in the second half of the 2017 season, holding Duke and Virginia in check and even doing a nice job against North Carolina until a few crucial drives in the fourth quarter before finishing strong in games against Virginia Tech and Miami.

If they’re going to pick up where they left off in 2017, then the first real test is this Saturday at North Carolina. The Tar Heels have not been good offensively this season, but Larry Fedora is still Larry Fedora, and for whatever reason, he has had Pitt’s number for the last five years. And while Pitt’s biggest question heading into this game is whether the offense will get going, the defense also has to show that it really can be as good as a lot of people expect it to be.

That means Rashad Weaver has to change the game. Quintin Wirginis has to change the game. Dane Jackson has to change the game. The primary players on this defense have to be playmakers, and areas that have been weaker - like the safeties - have to take a step forward.

Because the road doesn’t get any easier. After UNC, Pitt will go to Orlando to face Central Florida, who has the No. 15 scoring offense in the nation. And the next week will see Syracuse bring the No. 12 scoring offense to Heinz Field.

So if this is really going to be Pat Narduzzi’s best defense since coming to Pitt, it had better start showing up this weekend.

ONE PREDICTION

This is the year
Roughly 10 years ago, I had a routine on Wednesday nights. I would go to Excuse’s, a great spot in the South Side, for wing night because the wings there were outstanding (and they might still be; I haven’t been there in awhile).

There was a regular crowd that showed up on Wednesday nights, and one of those regulars on one of those Wednesday nights, probably in late August, was on an epic rant, the crux of which was that Pitt was about to turn the corner.

This was 2008, with the afterglow of the 13-9 game still lingering and a feeling that Pitt really was about to reach the next level under Dave Wannstedt. The man’s refrain, in bellowing tones that echoed above whatever was playing on the jukebox (Ceann’s “Pittsburgh Makes Me Drunk” was a popular choice), was simple and memorable:

“This is our year! Bowling Green, Iowa, Buffalo - this is our year!”

So, every time I hear someone say something that’s along those lines, that’s all I can think of: that drunk guy yelling about how that was, in fact, Pitt’s year. And to some extent, he was right: Pitt won nine games in 2008, and despite the Bowling Green game (he was wrong about that one) and the Sun Bowl, it was a pretty strong season.

Now I’ll channel that fellow from Excuse’s:

This is their year.

This is the year Pitt beats North Carolina. After five years of futility against the Tar Heels in the ACC, Pitt is finally going to get one.

This North Carolina team has struggled on both sides of the ball. Its offense took forever to get going in the opener at Cal, and in Week Two, the Tar Heels produced a Pitt-esque 78 yards after halftime in a lopsided loss to East Carolina.

That Week Two game also saw UNC give up more than 500 yards of offense to ECU, who had lost the previous week to North Carolina A&T. So yeah, the Tar Heels’ track record in 2018 is not great. Of course, Pitt has had its own share of bumps in the road this season, particularly on offense, and UNC does have the added benefit - an unfortunate benefit but a benefit all the same - of playing on two weeks’ rest after the Week Three game against Central Florida was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence.

But no matter how you slice it, this is UNC’s least-talented team of the last six years and, as such, the one Pitt should have the best chance of beating. I probably said the same thing last year and we saw how that worked out, but Pitt was arguably the better team for most of that game, with a kickoff return touchdown and a fumble at the goal line being the difference until the defense broke down late in the fourth quarter.

At some point, though, if you flip a coin 100 times and call heads every time, it’s going to come up heads. That’s not to say that Pitt should win on luck alone, or even on the eventuality of fate. This should be a game that Pitt wins based on matchups, with UNC ranking outside the top 100 nationally in total offense, passing offense, team pass efficiency, scoring offense, turnover margin, third-down conversion percentage, red zone defense, penalties and time of possession.

Pitt isn’t too far ahead in most of those categories, but the Panthers are a little ahead, and a bunch of those offensive numbers include stats gained in pretty terrible conditions, which has to be considered.

Nevertheless, Pitt has gotten closer and closer to UNC over time, and none of the games since Pitt joined the ACC have been blowouts; the margin of defeat since 2013 has gone from 7 to 5, back to 7, then to 1 and then to 3 last season.

I think this year that number gets into the positive for Pitt. It probably won’t be a big number and, given the aesthetics of the five games these two teams have played in 2018, it probably won’t be pretty. But I think the Panthers get this one.

I mean, they have to get one eventually, right?