The 3-2-1 Column: The new commits, the next commits and more

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about new commitments, potential commitments and the next step in the recruiting process.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

That’s more like it
There we go. Now it’s June.

After the first official visit weekend passed without any commitments, it felt like there was something missing from the month.

I mean, I know we expected the first weekend to be commitment-free - and said as much in this column a couple weeks ago - but still: it’s June. There are supposed to be commitments in June.

And now there are.

Following two official visit weekends, Pitt’s commitment list has grown by four. The second official visit weekend produced three commitments - one who gave his verbal pledge during the visit and two more who did it after they got home - and one of the recruits from the first official visit weekend jumped on board as well.

That’s the kind of commitment outburst we’ve come to expect from June, and we got it.

The first to commit was Jordaan Bailey, a running back from Tampa who picked Pitt over an offer from West Virginia, among other schools. He’s 6’0” and 184 pounds, and he averaged 13.5 yards per touch last season as a back who can take handoffs and catch the ball out of the backfield.

The next to announce was Jimmy Scott, a former Tennessee commit who reopened his recruitment in January. Scott is a 6’3” 250-pound defensive end from Buffalo who planned to take a full month of official visits but dropped those plans after his Pitt visit.

Then came another Buffalo prospect in receiver Addison Copeland. At 6’3” and 190 pounds, Copeland is a playmaking receiver and former Rutgers commit who drew some heavy interest when he backed off that pledge in February. An offer from Notre Dame spurred his decommitment, and Penn State, South Carolina and Boston College all joined Pitt in offering upon the news, but a weekend in Pittsburgh - plus a prospect camp working with Brennan Marion - sealed the deal for the Panthers.

And the final commit of the week (so far) was Ryland Gandy, a cornerback prospect from Georgia who visited Pitt on the first weekend of the month and went to West Virginia this past weekend. But on Monday morning, Gandy woke up and called the Pitt coaches to make his decision, choosing the Panthers over offers from Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn State, USC, Virginia and Virginia Tech.

Bailey, Copeland, Scott and Gandy made for a pretty good week’s haul, and they also formally pushed June 2021 past June 2020 in the quantity of commitments.

Like I said, that’s how it’s supposed to be. The official visits were one big step back toward “normal” in recruiting, and the prospect camps were another. Now there are commitments, and it’s all coming together.

Getting top targets
Let’s dig a little deeper on those commits.

One of the big things that sticks out to me about that quartet is specifically related to Bailey and Copeland. Heading into the official visit weekend, I wrote here on the site that those two were among Pitt’s top skill position targets, ranking no worse than the top three at their respective positions.

Of course, we’re talking about the realistic targets here; if Brandon Robinson or Kevin Coleman wants to commit to Pitt - or even Nicholas Singleton or Kevin Thomas - I’m sure the staff would be glad to have them.

But in terms of realistic guys the coaches have on their board, I’m not sure there were many, if any, running backs who ranked higher than Bailey or receivers who ranked higher than Copeland.

And what’s really interesting is, the Pitt staff had actual in-person evaluations of both Bailey and Copeland. Pat Narduzzi and company saw Bailey at a camp in Florida last week before he visited Pitt, and they had Copeland at their own camp this past Sunday when he stayed in town an extra day after his official visit.

What they saw in Bailey was a back with good size, impressive speed and really strong pass-catching skills (he worked at receiver at the camp in Florida). In Copeland, they saw a 6’3” receiver who had the speed to outrun corners on deep routes and the quickness to make a man miss and turn a short gain into a long one.

The Pitt coaches were already sold on Bailey and Copeland, but getting to see them in person, which is something of a rarity given the last year and a half, was huge. And I think it fully and completely sold them on those two.

There’s something to be said for identifying top targets, prioritizing them and landing them.

That’s really the three steps in the recruiting process: identify the guys you want to land at each position, adjust your recruiting approach to make them the priorities and then, when the opportunity presents itself, close them.

Now, two weeks into June, Pitt has quite possibly its top two skill guys locked up for the 2022 recruiting class. There’s a long way to go until Signing Day; we all know that and I think Pitt will have to fend off a few would-be suitors between now and then (more on that in a minute).

But the plan, to this point, came together over the weekend, and Pitt’s offensive skill position recruiting continues to excel.

Getting top targets, pt. 2
Let’s talk about the other two commitments Pitt got this week.

First up was Jimmy Scott, a defensive end from the developing Pitt recruiting hotbed of western New York (it seems that way after Scott and Copeland committed).

Next came Ryland Gandy, a cornerback from the desirous Pitt recruiting hotbed of Georgia (Pitt would certainly like that state to become a regular producer of future Panthers).

I think both of these guys are interesting for a few reasons. To start, they’re both really good prospects.

Scott is a former Tennessee commit and a heavy hitter off the edge who was a feature back early in his career at St. Francis (108 carries for 808 yards - 7.5 ypc - as a freshman) but had a bit more of a goal line role this past season. Either way, his usage on offense speaks to his athleticism and physicality.

Other colleges were sold on Scott, too. In addition to Pitt and Tennessee, he had offers from Arizona State, Arkansas, Boston College, Duke, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ole Miss, Nebraska, N.C. State, Rutgers, Syracuse, Texas A&M and West Virginia. That’s a strong list and the kind of list that Pitt needs to beat in order to get the players that can help move the program forward.

Gandy’s offer sheet is no less impressive. Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn State, USC, Virginia, Virginia Tech and West Virginia all tried to get Gandy, and it’s understandable why: he’s a 6’0” cornerback who has good ball skills, is physical with receivers and can play press or off. He’s ranked the No. 69 prospect in the state of Georgia, but he’s also rated a 5.6 three-star, which would put him just outside the top 15 in Pennsylvania.

Regardless of ranking, other colleges were sold on Gandy and, most importantly for our purposes, the Pitt staff was sold on him as a priority cornerback target.

That goes for both Scott and Gandy: these were priority targets for the staff at their respective positions. They may not have been No. 1 like Copeland and Bailey - or as close to No. 1 as Copeland and Bailey were - but they’re high enough on the board that their commitments likely closed the door for other recruits who might have wanted to commit to Pitt.

This is the balancing act in recruiting: as a coach, you’re always in a push-and-pull with your top targets and your secondary targets, and that gets heightened when top targets want to wait a little longer before they commit, or when the secondary targets want to commit sooner.

You don’t want to miss on a guy you like because you were waiting for a guy you like better. But with Scott’s commitment and Gandy’s commitment, the Pitt coaches don’t have to worry about that: they got two of their top targets at defensive end and cornerback, and I think there are probably a few prospects at those positions who are now on the outside looking in as the Pitt staff hones in on one or two more top targets at both spots.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who’s next?
Million-dollar question, right?

The first question after every commitment is, who’s next?

This past week, the answers came rather quickly: Bailey on Saturday, Scott on Monday, Copeland on Tuesday, Gandy on Wednesday. But it’s been two days - two whole days! - since Gandy’s announcement, so what’s up?

The next date to circle on the calendar is July 4. There might be more commitments between now and then, but that’s one date we know for sure is relevant, because that’s the day Tyreese Fearbry is announcing his commitment.

You know Fearbry by now. He’s a four-star defensive end prospect at Perry with offers from just about everybody in the ACC, SEC and Big Ten. He took an official visit to Kentucky this past weekend, he’s visiting Penn State this weekend and he’ll wrap up his visits with a trip to Auburn next weekend.

Of course, in and amongst all of that, Fearbry has been visiting Pitt.

A lot.

He went to the South Side on the first day of in-person recruiting, June 1. He came back two days later for his official visit June 3-5. He was back at Pitt’s prospect the day after his visit, June 6. He returned a week later for the second prospect camp on June 13. And he came back one more time this week on Wednesday night when Pitt hosted some local recruits for a small prospect camp.

So if you’re adding it up, he was at Pitt seven of the first 16 days of the month. That’s a lot of time around the coaches, a lot of time around the players and a lot of time around the program. And when Pat Narduzzi wanted to give a sneak peek at some new uniforms, guess who he chose for a model?

I’m sure I don’t have to decipher this next tweet for you.

So yeah, all signs are pointing to Pitt landing Fearbry. His visit to Kentucky didn’t seem to do much for him, and I’m not too concerned about that end-of-month visit to Auburn.

This weekend, though…

We all know about Pitt and Penn State. We all know the angles and elements at play in recruiting battles between the two schools. In some respects, Fearbry is just the latest western Pa. prospect to be coveted by both schools. But I think there’s something more at play.

You see, over the last few years, Pitt has kind of gotten the better of Penn State with local recruits. There was the nadir - from Pitt’s perspective - in 2017, when the Panthers got Paris Ford and Penn State got everybody else (at least, everybody who didn’t go to Notre Dame) in western Pa.

It was more or less even for a few years after that. Of WPIAL/City League recruits with offers from both schools, Pitt got Blake Zubovic in 2018 and Dayon Hayes in 2020, while Penn State got Joey Porter Jr. in the 2019 class and Zuriah Fisher in 2020. But last year the momentum swung to the Panthers with a trio of huge local signings:

Nahki Johnson, Elliot Donald and Dorien Ford.

All three were coveted by Penn State, whose only WPIAL signing was North Allegheny tight end Khalil Dinkins.

From what I’ve heard, the PSU staff was a little sore after losing those three - and Hayes before them - Fearbry could be a focal point of that frustration (or at least a target for the resolution of that frustration).

So while all signs point to Pitt landing Fearbry, from his familiarity with the staff and comfort level around the program to his stated preference for an urban setting, I expect Penn State to put a hard push on him this weekend - partially because the coaches want to land him, but also because this particular recruitment has the potential to be something of a statement.

I’m still confident in Pitt’s chances, but we’ll see how it goes this weekend.

Who’s next in western Pa.?
Speaking of Fearbry, he’s just the tip of the iceberg in the local area.

I know we’ve talked about this before - and I’m sure we’ll discuss plenty more times - but I’m inclined to bring it up again after seeing a bunch of local players in person over the last couple weeks.

And my conclusion is this:

There are some real studs in the coming classes.

Look, there are always talented players in western Pa. Every class has at least a few. But when I look down the line at what’s on the way in the 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes, I see a potential run of high-level recruits, the likes of which we haven’t seen around here in awhile.

In the 2023 class, Rodney Gallagher is the big name. A two-sport star who ranks as the No. 59 overall prospect in the class for football, Gallagher is going to be able to pick his school and his sport in college, and Pitt among the options who have said he could play both football and basketball, if he is so inclined.

Not far behind Gallagher is Brashear standout Ta’Mere Robinson. He’s ranked No. 76 nationally, and after seeing him in person at Pitt’s camp on Wednesday night, I think he might actually be under-ranked. He’s simply a freak, a 6’3” outside linebacker who moves better than guys his size should be able to.

Gallagher is probably going to stay as the No. 1 prospect in Pennsylvania for the 2023 class, but Robinson could push him. Those two are studs (Chartiers Valley defensive back Lamont Payne is legit, too, in the class).

But it gets even better in the 2024 class. Yes, these guys are freshmen-going-on-sophomores, but the two players who have emerged so far in that class have the potential to be some of the best we’ve seen in quite some time.

Quinton Martin from Belle Vernon is looking like a five-star prospect. He’s big and fast, and he could play a bunch of positions in college, from running back or receiver on offense to safety or linebacker on defense. He’s going to be really fun to watch for the next few seasons. And he’ll be recruited by everybody in the country.

The other one to know is Anthony Speca, a linebacker at Central Catholic. He’s already built like a college player, and I can’t really remember the last local linebacker who had a ceiling like his. Maybe David Adams in the 2017 class? Maybe Dan Mason way back in 2009?

We’ll save the comparisons for later, but suffice to say, Speca is a big-time prospect. He and Martin will headline that 2024 class and bring a lot of college coaches to western Pa.

It goes without saying that Pitt is putting a lot of focus on Gallagher, Robinson, Martin and Speca. Just like it goes without saying that the Panthers would really help their chances by putting together some successful seasons.

ONE PREDICTION

Prepare for battle
Okay. Pitt’s got its running back for the 2022 class. That’s good, right?

It is, but I think it’s just getting started with Jordaan Bailey.

I’m looking at Bailey as a 6’0” 180-pound running back who averaged 13.5 yards per offensive touch last season, who will get even more touches this season, who will get even more exposure due to those touches and who should be one of the top risers among 2022 recruits in Florida this falls, and I’m seeing a guy who reminds me of some other recent recruitments.

What I’m saying - what I’m predicting - is this:

Jordaan Bailey is this year’s Khalil Anderson, this year’s Jordan Addison.

You remember those recruitments. Two years ago, Addison committed to Pitt in the summer and then had a monster senior season, averaging 21.8 yards per catch and scoring a touchdown on one out of every three receptions.

Sure enough, college coaches came calling.

Michigan offered in November of Addison’s senior year. Notre Dame pushed hard for him. Maryland pushed even harder and got an official visit. Addison obviously stuck with Pitt, but the Panthers had to fight hard at the end to hold onto him.

Last year, it happened again. Anderson committed to Pitt in the summer after taking un-hosted visits to Pitt and Michigan State, but that didn’t stop other schools from jumping in. Ole Miss - always a threat - offered less than a week after he committed. Arkansas got in a week after that. Then South Carolina, Minnesota and Mississippi State offered before the end of the summer.

Things really heated up in the fall, first with Miami offering in November and Penn State making a push in December. Anderson never took any official visits to those schools because he couldn’t - it was the NCAA’s COVID dead period - and that might have been to Pitt’s advantage.

Either way, the staff had to fight to hold onto Anderson. They ultimately succeeded, as you know, and I think Anderson has the potential to be for Pitt’s defense what Addison was for the Panthers’ offense.

(He’s got the talent to do that, but there’s more depth at cornerback this year than there was at receiver last year, so we’ll see what kind of impact Anderson can make.)

But here’s the point:

I think Jordaan Bailey will be this year’s Jordan Addison or Khalil Anderson. From every indication, he looks like a stud who, like Addison and Anderson, is under-recruited right now. If his senior season continues at the pace of his junior year, more schools will take notice - particularly schools in Florida - and things could get interesting.