In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about changing expectations, the quarterback question, the next step for Pitt hoops and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Water finds its level - but sometimes there’s a splash
I keep saying that phrase: Water finds its level.
When the season started, my prediction was that this team would win eight games. I felt like it was an eight-win team. And let’s be honest, winning eight games one year after winning three would be one hell of a turnaround. Everybody would have signed up for that.
Okay, I’m going to stop right there, because I hate that kind of thing. I hate when people say, “If I would have told you before the season that <insert improbable outcome that surpasses preseason expectations here>.” I hate that because it ignores the context of the season. Expectations change once the games start getting played, and the preseason view matters less and less with every passing week - especially if there are unexpected results.
Now, when the season ends, maybe we can talk about preseason expectations and how the season stacked up. But in the middle of it? That stuff doesn’t mean a whole lot. The results change how we perceive the season and adjust our expectations.
So when Pitt went to Cincinnati and came back from a three-touchdown deficit in the final 20 minutes, the expectations changed. And when Pitt did it again a week later - down 10 in the final five minutes against West Virginia - it changed again.
As the wins kept stacking and the improbable outcomes kept materializing - two comeback wins plus first-time-ever history-makers like going 4-0 in the non-conference and winning in Chapel Hill - the expectations kept changing.
When you start 7-0, going 8-4 is no longer an admirable turnaround. The 7-0 start took this season out of the shadow of last year, pushing the comparison aside in favor of new expectations created by all of the success.
We weren’t talking about a bounce-back season anymore. We were talking about making travel plans to Charlotte. We were talking about how Pitt could get into the College Football Playoffs. We were talking about a season for the ages.
But what if my preseason expectations for the team were right? What if they really are an eight-win team? Well, maybe we’ve seen the reckoning, the regression to the mean, in the last three weeks.
There’s another part to that, too, though. There’s something else I’ve been thinking about recently.
When I think about college football, I think eight wins is pretty much the baseline for average. It’s not 6-6; if you go 6-6, you had a bad season. A bowl-eligible season, but a bad season. 7-5 is not much better. 8-4 and it’s just fine. Not great. Not terrible. Just fine.
With scheduling being what it is, winning eight games should be the minimum in most standard years. And I think if we talk about an Eight-Win Team as a concept, most of us know what that looks like. A team that’s solid in some spots, weak in others, with enough NFL talent to take care of business in most games.
Coming into the season, I expected Pitt to be an eight-win team because they felt like an Eight-Win Team. And maybe Pitt really is that:
An Eight-Win Team.
Pat Narduzzi has had quite a few Eight-Win Teams at Pitt. 2015 and 2016 were Eight-Win Teams. 2019 was, too. Those teams all actually won eight games, but sometimes an Eight-Win Team can end up a little ahead or behind of the number.
Like, I would say the 2018 team was and Eight-Win Team; that team only won seven, but they felt like an Eight-Win Team. Ditto for 2022; that team did win eight in the regular season and then got to nine in the Sun Bowl, but they were an Eight-Win Team in terms of talent. 2020 probably would have been an Eight-Win Team in a normal year, too.
As you can see, most of Narduzzi’s teams have been what I would call Eight-Win Teams. The exceptions, of course, are 2017 (which went 5-7 but probably could have been an Eight-Win Team without the quarterback issues), 2021 (which went 11-3 and won the ACC) and 2023 (the 3-9 team that we all remember too well).
Now, being an Eight-Win Team doesn’t necessarily mean you’re bad. In fact, most Eight-Win Teams can produce fits of magic. Narduzzi’s teams have certainly shown that in pretty much every year I listed above: 2015 had a couple improbable wins; 2016 had the Clemson game; 2018 had an upset win on the road at Virginia; 2019 had the “Pitt Special” game against UCF; 2020 had the undermanned blowout against Virginia Tech.
That’s part of being an Eight-Win Team: they might lose a game against a team they should beat (we can all recount those), but they also pull an upset that you don’t see coming.
And by those definitions and parameters, it looks like 2024 really is an Eight-Win Team.
But here’s something else I’ve been thinking.
I’ve been thinking that this year’s team will end up being an Eight-Win Team that wins nine. They certainly have the loss they should have won (Virginia). But they don’t just have one surprising win; they have two. An Eight-Win Team might be able to come back from double digits in the fourth quarter for a win.
But to do it twice? That’s usually a step too far for an Eight-Win Team. It’s unlikely that an Eight-Win Team could pull that off multiple times in a season.
What I’m saying is, one of those comeback wins was built into the DNA of an Eight-Win Team, but getting two is what can lead an Eight-Win Team to more than eight wins.
So water may be finding its level for Pitt this season and the Panthers might be settling in as the Eight-Win Team they were probably always going to be. But they got some house money with those two comeback wins, so while I think they’re an Eight-Win Team, I also think they can win - and will win - nine because they built in an extra win.
Now, the matter of whether winning nine games is good enough after the 7-0 start is a different discussion that I’m sure will echo endlessly across the message boards this offseason.
But you know what else will happen this offseason? We’ll all sit back and say, “Hey, they just won nine or more games in three out of the last four seasons. That’s the best stretch since the early 1980’s. And they bounced back from 3-9 by winning nine games. That’s pretty impressive.”
The right call at quarterback
Ha ha. Just kidding. I have no clue what the right call at quarterback is.
I’m not at practice. I haven’t talked to team doctors. And I don’t know what kind of game plan Pitt will have for its quarterback in the matchup with Louisville.
So I don’t really know pretty much any relevant information when it comes to the quarterback decision for Saturday’s game.
Here’s what I do know, though:
- Coming out of training camp, the Pitt coaches believed Eli Holstein gave them the best chance to win.
- In the first five games of the season, Holstein seemed to confirm the coaches’ belief in him by throwing for more than 1,500 yards with 15 touchdowns and leading comeback wins at Cincinnati and against West Virginia as part of a 5-0 start.
- Holstein struggled against Cal, Syracuse and Virginia (SMU was an out-of-hand game so quickly that we’ll set that aside).
- Nate Yarnell replaced Holstein against Virginia and completed 4-of-12 passes with two interceptions.
- The next week Yarnell started against Clemson and set career highs in completions and passing yards but lost when too many drives ended with field goals instead of touchdowns.
- Holstein has been cleared to play this week.
So what’s the right move? That’s the million-dollar question, and as with any quarterback situation, no matter what decision the coaches make, there will be plenty of moments in Saturday’s game when it will become clear that they made the wrong decision.
Like the first incomplete pass or failed third down or turnover.
There will probably also be at least a few moments where it looks like they made the right decision.
Like a touchdown pass or a third-down conversion or a scramble that picks up big yards.
All of those things will probably happen on Saturday. And we will all react to each individual play accordingly.
So, again, what’s the right move?
I don’t know. There’s part of me that thinks Holstein is the obvious call. He was the best quarterback in training camp, showed the most upside and was determined to give the team the best chance to win. Despite his struggles, most of those things are still probably true.
Certainly, Yarnell made some good plays against Clemson, but I think it’s also true that the plays he made against the Tigers were reminiscent of the plays Holstein made earlier in the season. Meanwhile, I think there were plays Yarnell didn’t make against Clemson - mostly on scramble opportunities - that Holstein did make earlier.
Put another way, I didn’t really see Yarnell do anything Holstein couldn’t do, but I saw him miss on some things that Holstein could have done.
And then there’s this: Who knows if Yarnell is even healthy? He got knocked around quite a bit in the Clemson game, with eight sacks and just as many hits while he was throwing or running. And he took some big shots, including a few that make you wince when you watch them on replay. So it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he was less than 100% right now.
We’ll see what happens tomorrow. The only thing I know for sure is that every pass will be a referendum on the decision. Which is fun.
An All-American shark
Look, I’ll be the first to admit that I have, on occasion over the last two years, overhyped Pitt’s outside linebackers.
Bangally Kamara never lived up to what I thought he could become or would become (maybe it will happen for him next year at Kansas) and Solomon DeShields was on the cusp of breaking out last year before he transferred to Texas A&M, where he has played about 135 defensive snaps this season.
I got those two wrong. There were good reasons to hype them, but it didn’t pan out. I’ll own that.
And I’ll own it because I am absolutely doing a victory lap about Kyle Louis.
Okay, this isn’t about me - despite the first four paragraphs of this section of the column, and despite my correct prognostication that Louis would have a big season. And really, even if I predicted success for Kyle Louis, I certainly didn’t predict that he would be this good.
83 tackles. 14.5 tackles for loss. 7 sacks. 4 interceptions.
Nobody else in the country - literally no one - has that kind of stat line. Nobody else has at least 83 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks and four interceptions.
Louis is one of one.
And he’s not just feasting on weaker competition, building up his stats against G5 and FCS programs. 10.5 of his tackles for loss have come against ACC teams. Six of his seven sacks have, too. And two of his four interceptions.
As the level of competition has increased, Louis has stepped up his game, and where once I thought he had a shot at making the ACC’s all-conference team, I now think the bar is higher.
Louis should legitimately be the frontrunner for ACC Defensive Player of the Year and should be getting serious consideration for national awards.
Like the Butkus Award and the Bednarik Award. The Butkus goes to the top linebacker in the nation and the Bednarik goes to the top defensive player, and who has been better than Louis? By the numbers, nobody has.
That said, both of those awards announced their semifinalists in recent weeks, and Louis didn’t make the cut. So maybe those won’t happen (unless those groups reverse course and select a non-semifinalist, which isn’t likely since they’re also generally somewhat averse to underclassmen).
But even if those two don’t happen, Louis should be looked at for All-America honors. Because, again, nobody is producing at a higher level than Louis.
I know it’s not just a numbers game, but when the numbers look like Louis’ numbers look, then yeah, it’s a bit of a numbers game. Stats and production matter, and Louis is producing big-time stats.
All-ACC, conference defensive player of the year and All-America honors? That would be a well-deserved collection of recognition for a guy who has emerged as the best overall player on Pitt’s team this season.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Will Pitt have another OL combination this week?
I don’t know the answer to this question; really, I’m just bringing it up here as a way to talk about the offensive line, which is a topic that very much merits discussion (particularly since we spend so much time on the quarterbacks - but so much of their success depends on the offensive line).
When training camp was happening in August, our common refrain was that the offensive line could be okay and maybe even solid - as long as they stayed healthy. And after years of offensive line injuries, Pitt had to be due for some good luck in that department, right?
Well, if the Panthers are due for good luck with offensive line injuries, it will have to come in 2025.
They haven’t stayed healthy. Ryan Jacoby has been in and out of the lineup all season and Branson Taylor suffered a season-ending injury against Cal; that’s only two guys, but their injuries have caused fairly considerable upheaval for a group where consistency is so important.
And this group has definitely not had consistency. Pitt has used five different starting offensive line combinations in 10 games, with Jacoby and Jason Collier and eventually Terrence Enos flip-flopping at left guard; Taylor being replaced by Enos and then right tackle Ryan Baer; and Isaiah Montgomery and then Jackson Brown replacing Baer at right tackle.
Oh, and Lyndon Cooper got hurt in the last game, so his status could be up in the air.
So a group that really, really needed to stay healthy due to question marks about the depth has had to dig into that depth at four different positions this season.
Whatever happens, Pitt needs to protect B.J. Williams at all costs. He’s playing well and he’s the only guy still standing at his original position.
Look, there are a lot of reasons Pitt’s offense has struggled; it’s not all on the offensive line. But a lot of it is.
The linemen have been called for 21 penalties this season - 13 holding calls, six false starts and a couple personal fouls - and while that’s too many, it’s probably fewer false starts than you expected.
But beyond the penalties, there’s probably a ceiling to the talent level in that position group. The offensive line has never been a recruiting strength for Pitt, and this year the Panthers entered the season with a few returning starters, some transfers, a guard who hadn’t played in a long time and a bunch of guys who haven’t played at all.
Maybe there’s talent in the ranks. Maybe it will show itself in the years to come (I think Caleb Holmes will be good). But Pitt’s situation with the offensive line is such that, due to two injuries, the group is in a seeming constant state of change in the final third of the season.
It’s hard to move the ball and win like that. And we might be looking at Pitt starting a sixth different combination on Saturday.
How much will this weekend tell us?
Before Pitt football kicks off against Louisville in the crucial penultimate game of the regular season, the Pitt basketball team will be away from home as well.
Those Panthers will be in the cozy ballroom confines of The Greenbrier, a world-class resort in West Virginia’s majestic Allegheny Mountains with acres of pristine grounds and spaces etched in history.
Or so The Greenbrier’s website tells us.
The site also tells us that The Greenbrier has hosted 26 U.S. presidents, although none since Dwight D. Eisenhower. And we have also come to learn that The Greenbrier is notable for its giant underground bunker; apparently, the 112,000-square-foot space was an emergency destination for members of Congress during the Cold War.
If the Soviets attacked, Eisenhower’s plan was to send the legislative branch to West By God Virginia. Khrushchev would never think to look for them there.
And, quite frankly, I’m not sure anyone in present day would think to look for college basketball in White Sulphur Springs, either. Certainly not four high-major teams vying for key early-season wins.
And if, by chance, one were to go looking in White Sulphur Springs for high-major college basketball teams vying for early-season wins, I can’t imagine they would start their search in the ballroom. But alas, the dance floor of the Greenbrier will trade the Mountain State’s upper-crust for college basketball, the gents and dames replaced with G and Dame, the waltz and tango replaced with Ish and J-Lowe.
Alright, enough of the history, because the present is about to give us a real indication of the future.
So far, the returns on Pitt basketball 2024-25 have been good. Really good. Better than we’ve seen since 2018 (in terms of starting a season 5-0) and better than we’ve seen since 2013 (in terms of winning each of the first five games by 15+ points). This team, which lost its point guard and three-point shooting ace who just so happened to be the team’s top two scorers, has come out of the gates with both guns blazing.
Actually, they’ve had five guns blazing, because right now the Panthers have five players averaging double figures. Ishmael Leggett has been a do-everything weapon in just about every facet. Houston transfer Damian Dunn hasn’t been far behind Leggett in making shots and playing tough defense. Florida State transfer Cameron Corhen has brought the offensive elements he was expected to add and has shown some unique abilities on the defensive end. Guillermo Diaz Graham is playing the best basketball of his career. Point guard Jaland Lowe broke out of his two-game slump on Monday night by recording the sixth triple-double in Pitt history. And Zack Austin is a burst of shot-blocking energy off the bench, where he seems to be continuing the Panthers’ recent tradition of boasting one of the best sixth men in the conference.
This team withstood the challenge from a game Murray State team, handled a tougher-than-expected zone defense from Gardner-Webb, thumped rival West Virginia with no regard and answered the call in a sneaky game against VMI with a 45-point blowout.
Now the Panthers are headed deep into the kidney of West Virginia, where they will park the charter plane awfully close to the west Virginia that John Denver was actually singing about and embark on their biggest tests yet:
LSU on Friday and UCF or Wisconsin on Sunday. Two power-conference opponents and a chance to improve (to 7-0) and prove (that this team has some real legs to it).
There are still 24 regular-season games after this weekend, of course, and the Greenbrier Tip-Off contests represent the first two of a five-game stretch against power-conference opponents. So there’s a lot of basketball to play.
But if Pitt can take care of business in these two, it will really give Congress something to talk about on that train ride back to D.C.
ONE PREDICTION
A win at Louisville
Maybe there will be a new offensive line and maybe there won’t. Maybe there will be another quarterback change and maybe there won’t. Maybe I’ll wake up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet and maybe I won’t (I know it’s not Thanksgiving yet but I’m trying to get into the holiday spirit).
Whatever happens, I think Pitt comes home from Louisville this weekend with its eighth win of the season.
Why? Because I think the positive signs the Panthers showed against Clemson are repeatable.
I know those positive signs came in a loss, but look at it this way: just as it was understandable to be concerned about some of the things the Panthers showed in the wins over Cal and Syracuse - particularly on offense - I think it’s understandable to look at the loss to Clemson to find some signs of encouragement - again, particularly on offense.
Whether it was the quarterback or some other element, Pitt’s offense looked like itself again at various points in the Clemson game. The Panthers did some of the things they had done so well early in the season, especially in the second half, and it reminded me that, yes, they actually were that good in the first five games.
Now they’ll be facing a Louisville team that is 6-4 with a resume highlighted by a win over Clemson and low-lighted by last week’s loss at Stanford. The Cardinals have a potent offense, as you’d expect for a Jeff Brohm team, but they also are giving up 372 yards and 25.6 points per game this season. They are beatable on defense, so if Pitt’s offense can build on what it did in the second half against Clemson - whether it’s with Yarnell or Holstein - then I think they can get it done on Saturday.
Sometimes when a team gets stuck in a losing streak, it can feel like they might not ever win again. So that’s why I look at last week’s game for encouragement:
The Panthers showed what they’re capable of. If they can play like that for 60 minutes and maybe convert one or two of those field goal drives into touchdowns, they would have beaten Clemson - and they can certainly beat Louisville.
I’m going to bet on Pitt doing it.
And hey, a worse Pitt team beat a better Louisville team a year ago. Given all the changes - from the players to the coaches - that’s not a perfect comparison, but the Panthers need whatever advantage they can get.
