The 2024 Pitt football regular season concludes tomorrow with a road game against Boston College. This season has been fascinating, from Pitt’s 7-0 start, to the current four-game losing streak. We try to make sense of what happened and where things are going for Pat Narduzzi’s team.

The Pitt basketball team is off to a 6-1 start and the Panthers has a huge road clash against Ohio State later today. We discuss the storylines around that team, and preview today’s game in this week’s 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Trying to make sense of Pitt’s season

It can be easy to change the belief you have towards a team once you see them actually play. However, there are always preconceived notions about a team, and off of those, you tend to build an expectation or set a ceiling for where they may potentially land.

Pitt standing with a 7-4 record entering the final game of the regular season does not feel like a stretch from where everyone had this team pegged them in August. Coming off of a three-win campaign, this team had numerous question marks and would be relying on plenty of newcomers across the board.

Having a four-game turnaround already in the bag at this point, when thinking back to our feelings on this team in the preseason, would seem passable, if not welcomed. It’s not like 7-4 is the record anyone would hope for, but I think the general sense was just to see improvement, get back on track in 2024, and show enough promise shown to build optimism for future seasons.

Things can change.

Teams can raise their own individual expectations by winning, and that’s exactly what the 2024 Pitt football team did this season. The Panthers raced off to their best start in over 40 years at 7-0, climbed in the national rankings, and looked poised to compete for an ACC Championship.

The team set a new bar for itself, which undeniably makes the end of this season feel like a totaled wasted opportunity and a disappointment in light of what has happened since that undefeated start.

The total picture is still incomplete. I get that. There is tomorrow’s result against Boston College and a bowl game to consider, and maybe if they achieve another win or two, the tone around this season could change yet again.

For now, this four-game losing streak has been tough to witness, nor justify. The competition has been better, sure. Pitt may have lost to a pair of teams that could potentially make the College Football Playoffs, and had another defeat with the starting quarterback being knocked out in the first quarter on the road.

Even with those factors in mind, it still feels like there were some missed chances this year. A lot of the sour feelings around this season stem from the offense simply being flatlined.

The Panthers won some close, coin-flip type games early in the season, but they did it it because they had an offense that was capable of going up and down the field and with the ability to score quickly.

That high-powered offense stayed in September, and there have been no signs of that team emerging since. Even in a pair of October wins over Cal and Syracuse, the offense wasn’t the reason why the team came out on top.

It’s possible Pitt offensive coordinator Kade Bell’s scheme got figured out to a degree. It would be fair to say freshman quarterback Eli Holstein came back down to earth a little bit. It’s also right to acknowledge the injuries to the offensive line got them out of sorts as well.

All of those things played into it, plus defensive reasons, and special teams too. Remember, it takes a true team effort to lose four games in a row.

At the same time, this just could be water finding its level, so to speak.

Perhaps, the Panthers just had the bounces fall their way early in the season, and simply rode that momentum for a while. Maybe the schedule set up just right to start 7-0, too. Who knows, I guess maybe the preseason expectations were just a little too on the nose.

In the end, when a team loses four games in a row, no matter the circumstances, it is a disappointment. This team may have always been destined to finish in the 7-8 win range, but they sure took the most maddening and frustrating path to get there.

Boston College is there for the taking

Speaking of eight wins, Pitt can achieve that number tomorrow. Even if the season feels a little deflated right now, winning can cure a lot, and it will at least point things in the right direction going into whatever bowl game the program lands.

Standing in their way of an 8-4 season is Boston College. That game is set for 3:00 p.m. tomorrow in Chestnut Hill, with coverage on The CW. The Eagles are led by first-year head coach Bill O’Brien, who has his team sitting on a 6-5 record through 11 games.

O’Brien, of course, is formerly the head coach at Penn State and also the Houston Texans. He was a good hire by the Boston College administration after Jeff Hafley left the school high and dry after last season for an assistant position in the NFL.

The Eagles are 6-5. Much like Pitt, things were brighter in September, but Boston College is just 2-4 over its last six games. The team did handle North Carolina 41-21 last week to bring some momentum into this week.

Still, this should be a winnable game on paper. Just 12 months ago, Pitt took down Boston College 24-16 at Acrisure Stadium. Even if things have looked shaky in recent weeks, this 2024 Pitt team is certainly better than last year’s squad that managed to claim a win over Boston College.

The Eagles are roughly a 4.5-point favorite over Pitt according to Vegas, which is interesting, but something the Panthers earned. Boston College is not going to overwhelm Pitt with a high-flying attack like they saw from Louisville a week ago. The Eagles are in the middle of the road in terms of offensive production within the ACC. The team is 16th, one spot ahead of Florida State, in the passing department this season in the conference.

It looked like early in the season quarterback Thomas Castellanos would be leading this team to any success it had, but O’Brien opted for a quarterback changed along the way and Castellanos did not wait to see it through, leading him to being in the transfer portal already.

Grayson James is now running things under center, and he completes about 62% of his passes, which is roughly the same as Castellanos. It does not look to be a big upgrade on paper, but the team responded with a win last week with him at QB at least.

The area of concern for Pitt is going to be stopping the run. Boston College is sixth in the ACC, averaging 180.7 rushing yards per game. Kye Robinchaux is the biggest concern, as he has posted 381 yards and five touchdowns over the past three games.

Boston College is still a standard 6-5 team with plenty of flaws. The Panthers are more than capable of winning, but if they lose, it won’t be anything Boston College is throwing anything at them they can’t handle.

Pitt’s fate tomorrow will ultimately come down to itself: starting strong, sustaining some success on offense, and letting the Pitt defense defend a team that they should be conducive to stopping. The quarterback situation makes things murky with Eli Holstein’s status questionable and Nate Yarnell not 100% himself.

But that also seems like the biggest factor. If Pitt can play to the best of its abilities, or at least give an effort like the Clemson game, then there’s not much Boston College should be able to do on their own to beat the Panthers.

Pitt hoops is in a good place

Jeff Capel’s team is 6-1 through seven games. The Panthers failed to secure a big win against Wisconsin on Sunday, but the team has not dropped the ball by any means either.

As we know, this program has been stuck ‘on the bubble’ for two seasons. Part of that is Pitt’s own doing, some of it is an unfavorable opinion on the ACC these days. Whatever the case has been, one year Pitt made the tournament with 20+ wins and a top five ACC finish, and the next year they did not with a similar resume.

I think one thing Pitt has done thus far is impress the computer rankings, or even trick them just the same. If the Panthers continue to have a strong first month, then they will have done most of the legwork already towards getting an NCAA Tournament bid.

It sounds crazy, but after living through these past two years, we’ve seen how the story unfolds. The computer rankings tend to pick favorite teams and conferences based off the first three weeks of the season, and it can sometimes be hard to catch up to them or change that narrative.

Pitt had a better record and a higher ACC finish than Clemson last season, but if you followed along with ‘bracketology’ projections, the Tigers were never really in doubt to make the tournament, while Pitt was never really viewed to be in the field, and ultimately left on the outside looking in.

If the process still favors early season metrics, then Pitt should feel a lot more comfortable than it did in past seasons. What Pitt has done through seven games is noticeable. The Panthers are pouring it on against the teams they should, and have played a little more daring of a schedule, and have gotten credit for it already.

Pitt’s metrics in data-based rankings like KenPom.com (No. 14) and EvanMiya.com (No. 23) are solid. The Panthers are regarded as a top-25sh team, and a six-point loss to Wisconsin on a neutral court did not really punish them either. Even in the human rankings, if you will, Pitt is generally being favored a bit more than the past two years. The Panthers are on the cusp of the AP poll this week, and even checked in at No. 25 in the latest Coaches Poll.

Last year’s Pitt team was not generating this kind of buzz already, and again, I think that’s a sign of good things to come. Jeff Capel built a schedule to sort of game the system, and also attract attention towards his team.

Of course, we’ll see if the NCAA’s preferred metric, the NET rankings, agree with some of the others computers. That has been a battle Pitt has been fighting for two seasons, and the initial set of NET rankings come out next month.

Of course, being in good graces with the computer rankings do not mean a lot if you don’t keep winning. Pitt has already secured wins over programs from the Big 12 and SEC, with additional opportunities against teams from the Big Ten (Ohio State) and SEC (Mississippi State), plus the ACC opener against Virginia Tech next weekend over the next three games.

It’s early, and there are still 25 regular season games remaining, but I think Pitt has started on the path towards being on the right side of the bubble if things are close.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How will Pitt overcome the loss to Damian Dunn

Pitt was dealt a tough blow just minutes into its game with Wisconsin on Sunday. Senior guard and second-leading scorer Damian Dunn landed awkwardly on his ankle, but in the process also seemingly injured his hand. He left the game and did not return, and Pitt dropped a tough one to the Badgers, 81-75, for its first loss of the year.

On Monday, it was revealed Dunn had surgery to repair a dislocated thumb. He also sprained his ankle on that play, and will be sidelined for at least six weeks according to Pitt. If the six weeks is close to being accurate, than Dunn will be available in early January, with a chance to be up to full speed by the end of the month.

Given the placement of Pitt’s 2024-25 schedule, if there is a time for Dunn to miss, it’s probably right now before conference play ramps up in January. Between today and New Year’s Day, Pitt only has five games. Two of those opponent are Eastern Kentucky and Sam Houston at home.

There is still today, which is a difficult one against Ohio State on the road. Plus road trips to Mississippi State and Virginia Tech looming next week. These next three games would have been a challenge with Dunn, and they aren’t going to be any easier without him.

However, I think his injury certainly creates an opportunity for some, and if it goes well, may prove to beneficial for this team in the long run. Pitt has been reliant mostly on six players. The Panthers have six players averaging 20 or minutes per game, and now that they are down one, someone or some guys are going to have no choice but to step up to fill the void.

Naturally, it starts with Zack Austin, who has basically been a sixth starter this season, and started 31 a year ago. He’ll likely move into the starting five for the time being without Dunn. The senior has been able to knock down some open shots, provide energy or a spark off the bench, and has been a surprisingly good rim protector for his size.

The two obvious candidates to see their usage pick up are a pair of freshmen. Brandin Cummings has been a regular member of the rotation through seven games. He’s flashed some potential at times, but the Panthers are going to need him to start shooting better than 25% from three-point range.

Cummings came in with the reputation as a talented scorer and he is absolutely going to be a big player for this program down the line, but he might need to grow up a little more quickly than anticipated.

The other is Amsal Delalic. The 6’8” freshman is 21 years old and played professionally in his native Bosnia. Delalic possesses a versatile offensive game, but he missed a good bit of the preseason with a wrist injury, and he has not necessarily stood out all that much yet as he tries to get up to speed.

He looks to be a step slow defensively, and has been pressing a little bit too much offense, but the talent is there for sure. In the Wisconsin game, Pitt leaned on Delalic a little more than his first three games, suggesting the staff knows that he can add a little more than he was providing, and they are willing to live with some mistakes until he works through them. He scored a personal-best 9 points in the Wisconsin game.

It is early, but the freshman forward is 4-of-8 from three-point range, and while that number won’t maintain, he is definitely one of the better threats this team has from the outside.

Dunn’s injury is not ideal in the moment, especially with the team navigating a tough non-conference slate, but it could prove to help them in the long run. If Cummings and/or Delalic come out of this stretch improved and more comfortable, then when Dunn returns to full health, this Pitt team should be ready to make a bit of a run.

Where do things stand less than a week from signing day?

You may be wondering why we’re talking recruiting already, but it’s that time of year believe or not. In the ever changing world of college football, there was another nuance added to the slate this year.

Traditionally, signing day for high school football prospects took place in early February. A few years ago, that was moved to the third week of December. Now, Pitt’s 2025 recruiting class can make things official on December 4th, or this upcoming Wednesday.

The 2025 Pitt class currently stands with 21 commitments, and the expectation is that 20 of those names will sign Wednesday. There is a situation where Pitt might have changed its mind on one of its current commits, so 20 appears to be the number, and we’ll let that situation play out on its own first.

Of course, that number is still one less than it has been most of the year. Pitt was the first school to offer Elijah Dotson out of Michigan. The Panthers’ coaching staff did a nice job of evaluating there, since Dotson eventually blossomed into a four-star defensive back recruit.

In case you missed it, however, Dotson opted to back away from his Pitt pledge, and committed to Michigan. That move stung, as Dotson was the highest-rated recruit in Pitt’s class at the time of his departure.

Despite that decision, the Panthers are set to bring in a class that appears to address some needs with a number of prospects who could see the field early in their career. The class is ranked in the 30s, which is typically the space where this program recruits more often than not.

Pitt has always been a program built on development over landing top tier talent, and usually that shines the brightest on the defensive side of the football. The Panthers have churned out ordinary looking recruits like Calijah Kancey, Patrick Jones, and Sir’Vocea Dennis to high-level players.

That trend continued this season with Kyle Louis looking like one of the best defensive players in college football. Louis is a former three-star recruit, and was once committed to Temple, and is now arguably the Panthers best player.

In order for this program to be successful, then they are going to have to expect more of that kind of development, and find the Kancey and Louis-type recruits. Given Pitt’s recent track record, the headliners of the class, as you might expect, are on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive back coaches Archie Collins and Cory Sanders, are usually at the forefront of that development process for the Panthers. Their recruiting appears to be the best of the bunch this cycle.

The class is headlined by four-star cornerback Mason Alexander. The Panthers also added talented safeties Joshua Guerrier and Cole Woodson. Plus, former Pennsylvania high school football star quarterback Shawn Lee is joining the program a cornerback, and looks to have plenty of athleticism to handle this spot, too.

Pitt’s new coaches on offense looked to add some speedy playmakers that will fit into Kade Bell’s up-tempo scheme. After tracking how these guys performed as seniors in high school, the Panthers should have at least one or two true freshmen who could see the field next season.

The top incoming offensive playmaker appears to Damarion Fowlkes, a smooth route runner from the DMV. Florida speedster Tony Kinsler also produced a 1,000-yard season this fall as a receiver as well. Even Synkwan Smith and Ja’Kyrian Turner looked like high school versions of Desmond Reid. This offense, and scheme, certainly plays to a type, and has the ability to get better with the right personnel.

Pitt seemingly did pretty well this cycle in certain areas like defensive back, running back, and wide receiver. There are still some question marks in this class, and on this roster, which will most likely be further addressed in the transfer portal. Pitt’s offensive line recruiting does not jump off the page, and the defensive line numbers are on the smaller side as well.

Having said that, Pitt will probably stand with 20 high school commitments in the class of 2025. I would expect the rest of the roster management focus to be shifted towards player retention on the current team, plus the transfer portal once signing day is completed next week.

The Panthers added 15 players via the portal this past offseason, and I would expect at least that much this year as well. I think that’s just where college football is right now, in that you are probably taking in upwards of 35-40 new players each year and trying to build up a new team from year to year.

It’s an ever changing world, and a lot has happened over the past five years in college football. Signing day being moved up a few weeks seems like small potatoes in the grand scheme of things, but it does change the dynamic. This was once the Christmas Day for college football fans in the offseason, but now it’s just bunched between the end of the regular season and the conference championship games, almost as an afterthought.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt beats Ohio State today

Pitt let a prime opportunity go away when it lost to Wisconsin on Sunday night. That would have been a statement victory for Jeff Capel’s team, but the Panthers did not have to wait long for another big-time test.

Today, Pitt will be in Columbus to take on Ohio State at 2:30 p.m. The game is on NBC’s steaming service Peacock. (So you have some time to subscribe now if you don’t have it. I got a yearly subscription for $20 for Black Friday…)

The Buckeyes are coached by Jake Diebler, who took over the program after first serving as an interim coach last season. Diebler had the team make a little run in the NIT and Ohio State opted on dropping the interim label because of it.

This year’s team is off to a 5-1 start and are being led by a talented backcourt with John Mobley Jr., a true freshman and Bruce Thornton, a junior. Both players are averaging 15.2 points per game.

The thing that stands out about Ohio State right now is the outside shooting. Both Mobley and Thornton are shooting over 50% and as a team Ohio State is shooting a scorching-hot 43.4%. The Buckeyes are not going to overwhelm anyone with size or a big-time low post presence, especially with center Aaron Bradshasw away from the team, but the shooting is a concern.

Still, I think highly of this Pitt team, even with the loss of Dunn. Jeff Capel’s team will be tested in a new way defensively with the three ball, and this will be the first true road game of the season as well. Even with those factors in mind, I have a feeling Pitt probably made some adjustments to play without Dunn. I also still will take Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett over most opposing backcourts. Pitt bounces back and will move to 7-1 today.