The 3-2-1 Column: Second chances, Signing Day, the 2023 schedule and more

In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Pitt's place in the ACC, second chances, Signing Day, the 2023 schedule and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Cemented
After Pitt beat Miami at the Petersen Events Center last Saturday, I tweeted a link to the Three-Pointers reaction article from the game and used the following line in the tweet:

“Pitt has cemented itself at the top of the ACC”

One of the replies to the tweet questioned the use of the word “cemented,” not necessarily because the replier is expecting a Pitt collapse, but rather because the margins in the league standings were so slim that a loss or two could drop the Panthers from second or third to eighth or ninth.

That was a valid comment, I thought, and even now, the top seven teams are only separated by, at most, two losses.

But no matter how bunched up the top of the ACC is, I think I’m more convince than ever:

Pitt is one of the top teams in the league.

There’s no hot takes in that statement; it’s simply the truth. The Panthers are 16-7 overall and 9-3 in the league, one of seven teams with a better-than-.500 record in ACC play. Pitt has played the other six teams in the top seven and has a 4-2 record against them, with a road loss to Duke and a home loss to Clemson as the only blemishes on that record.

The Panthers have taken down Virginia, who only has two losses in conference play. They beat N.C. State on the road. They have the aforementioned win over the Hurricanes. And, most recently, they went to Chapel Hill and completed a season sweep of UNC.

They look as dangerous and potent as any team in the conference, and while we’ll save the talk of the ACC being “down” for another day, I’ll say this:

The league is mighty competitive this season, and it feels wide open for any one or about nine teams to win it.

Pitt is certainly one of those nine teams, and more and more, it’s feeling like the Panthers are setting themselves up not just for a good regular season but a potential run in the ACC Tournament.

There’s no reason this team can’t make the semifinals of the conference tourney. If the season ended right now, Pitt would be the No. 2 seed, which means not playing a game until the quarterfinals on Thursday. It also means facing the No. 7, No. 10 or No. 15 seeds.

In reverse order, that could be Georgia Tech, Boston College or a third game against North Carolina.

I like the Panthers’ chances in the first two, and after Wednesday night, I would absolutely sign up for another Pitt-UNC game.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. For now, I’m looking at Pitt being 9-3, a game behind Clemson (18-5 overall, 10-2 ACC), who looks vulnerable to a slump after losing at Boston College Tuesday night and is about to face Miami and North Carolina over the next week. And I’m thinking, these Panthers sure do look like one of the best teams in the conference. The regular-season title is in play. Success in Greensboro is in play. And whatever lies beyond that…that’s in play, too.

It’s going to be a fun final eight games.

Second (and sometimes third) chances
There are a lot of things to like about this Pitt basketball team.

The shooting; that’s a big one.

The veteran presence and the experience and how those things translate to resilience and an ability to handle adversity; that’s pretty big, too.

And the fact that they’re winning; that’s probably the biggest one.

But one thing I’ve come to really like about this year’s team - and I talked about this on an episode of the Morning Pitt this week - is that you’ve got a bunch of guys who really are playing with something to prove. Guys who are on their second or sometimes third chances, maybe their final chances, and they want to show exactly what they can do and how they belong at the highest levels of the sport.

Take a guy like Nelly Cummings. He didn’t have high-major options coming out of Lincoln Park High School back in the day, so he went to Bowling Green for a season. When he transferred to Colgate a year later, he did so before the one-time “free” transfer rule, so he had to sit out, but he then spent three years establishing himself as one of the best players in the Patriot League.

He wanted more, though. He wanted to prove he could play at the high-major level. He wanted to prove himself in the ACC. So he came home to do just that.

Take a guy like Blake Hinson. He left Ole Miss after a really good freshman season and transferred to Iowa State, where he sat out one season for medical reasons and was off the team by October of his second year. In a rather unique move, Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger was quoted as saying that Hinson told him he was “quitting” - I can’t remember another time a coach used the word “quit” to describe a player - leaving a lot of questions about a guy who hadn’t played a game in the last two seasons.

Take a guy like Federiko Federiko. He was set to join West Virginia as a junior-college transfer, but the Mountaineers gently nudged him away when they took another center and told Federiko he would be redshirting.

Or even Jamarius Burton. He left the toxic scene of Wichita State for Texas Tech, where things were fine until Chris Beard took the Texas job a year after Burton got to Lubbock. When Burton got to Pitt - his third school in as many years - he simply wanted a stable situation where he could flourish.

Burton finally got that situation this year. Just like Cummings finally got his shot to prove himself at the highest level. Just like Federiko got his second chance. Just like Hinson got his third.

This team isn’t just a collection of players. It’s a team made up of players who each have something to prove individually.

Whether it’s a credit to Jeff Capel or the players themselves - and probably both - they have come to understand that their best chance to prove themselves individually is by doing it collectively. As the team succeeds, so too will the individuals succeed.

And so too will the individuals prove themselves.

Death of the Day
Signing Day was on Wednesday.

Did you notice?

Most college football fans probably didn’t. The February Signing Day, once among the high holies of the college football calendar, has been reduced to a blip on the radar, overshadowed by schedule announcements and rating somewhere below preseason watch lists.

The lack of interest is not the fault of the fans; there’s simply nothing to be interested in. Of the top 100 prospects in the class of 2023, 95 signed in December. Of the top 250 prospects in the class, 239 were already signed prior to Wednesday. And of the 11 who weren’t signed, six were already committed to a school, so we were really looking at like five guys out of the top 250 who made Signing Day decisions.

That’s not a lot of drama for most schools - and their fan bases. Pitt didn’t even have a Signing Day press conference. Well, they did, but it was a press conference for interviews with transfers Christian Veilleux and Daejon Reynolds and early-enrolling freshman Lamar Seymore.

Pat Narduzzi didn’t address the media because, why would he? There wasn’t any Signing Day news to discuss. Pitt still held its Signing Day event at Acrisure Stadium on Wednesday night, but that was the last vestige of what used to be one of the truly great days on the college football calendar.

It’s a shame to see how things have changed (damn, I sound old when I say that). I mean, the December Signing Day has become a major event, collecting all the drama and excitement that used to define the first Wednesday in February. So that’s good.

But it was different when the Big Signing Day was in February. With the December Signing Day, you’re just a few weeks removed from the last game and still a week or two away from the bowl game, so it very much feels like it’s happening in-season. And given the general busy-ness of that time of year, the December Signing Day feels like it’s being jammed into an already-hectic schedule, and that takes a little bit of the shine off.

In February, there’s nothing else happening, at least as it relates to college football. The Super Bowl is right around the corner, but Signing Day typically falls in that dead space between the conference championship games and the title game, which gives it a little extra spotlight.

College hoops is in full swing, too, with the build-up to March gaining real momentum.

But for college football, there’s nothing happening in the weeks and months between the end of the bowls and the start of spring camp. That made the February Signing Day a bright spot, a beacon of light in an otherwise dull and dreary time. And that allowed it to draw maximum interest.

What might have been best about the February Signing Day was the unbridled optimism. For all but the most cynical among us, Signing Day was full of hope. All those recruits your favorite team signed - they were either going to help you continue the success or improve on the failures. Everybody’s a champion on Signing Day, and that’s a much easier sell when it’s a month removed from the season than it is when there’s still another game to play.

The NCAA might ultimately change the recruiting calendar again. Not necessarily for fan interest, but because coaches will complain enough to get it to happen (we already have heard the complaints from all corners of the college football world).

For now, the first Wednesday in February has come and gone, and not many people noticed.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What’s the final verdict on the recruiting class?
While Pitt didn’t do anything on Wednesday, the passing of that day officially finalized the 2023 recruiting class, which was signed in its entirety six weeks ago.

But now that it’s officially official, what do we make of Pitt’s 2023 recruiting class?

Let me start with the good:

This is another really strong defensive group, and at this point, I don’t think it should be a surprise any longer when this happens. Pat Narduzzi and his assistant coaches are very good at recruiting defensive prospects, and I think it runs through almost the entire staff on that side of the ball. Guys like Charlie Partridge and Cory Sanders are really good recruiters, and they earned their pay with this class.

Nine of the 19 recruits in the class are defensive prospects, and they inarguably include the top prospects among the group. Defensive tackle Isaiah Neal is the headliner as the lone four-star recruit in the class, but you can’t convince me linebacker Jordan Bass and defensive back Shadarian Harrison aren’t at that caliber, too, and I don’t think guys like Jesse Anderson and Rasheem Biles are far behind (just with complicating factors, like Anderson primarily playing offense and Biles getting hurt during his senior season).

Beyond that, you’ve got two defensive ends - Antonio Camon and Maverick Gracio - who have Partridge’s seal of approval, which should be good enough for all of us at this point. And you have two WPIAL stars - Cruce Brookins and Braylan Lovelace - who dominated at lower levels. If you’re going to take a few projects, it’s not the worst idea to find them locally where you should have the most possible information available in your evaluations.

That’s a strong nine spread throughout the three levels of defense, with three linemen, three linebackers and three defensive backs.

I don’t know about you, but I’m past the point of worrying about Pitt’s defense - either on the field or in recruiting.

The offense…

That’s a different story.

Look, I think there are good offensive players in Pitt’s recruiting class. They took four receivers; at least one or two of them will probably end up being good. I imagine at least one of the running backs will be, too. And they signed three offensive linemen, which is kind of a crapshoot position anyway (I am firmly of the belief that offensive line is the toughest position to project, both for coaches and analysts).

Some of these guys will pan out, I’m sure. I think Lamar Seymore has a chance to be really good. Kenny Johnson, too. Really, all four of the receivers look like they have potential. And TJ Harvison had a really productive high school career, so we’ll see what he can do in college.

It’s just…I don’t know, the offensive recruits in this class don’t seem to have a lot of pop. After years of covering Pitt, I’ve learned to look beyond the stars, so I’m not too jaded by the fact that this year’s offensive recruits are all three-stars (or two, in the case of quarterback Ty Dieffenbach). But I just have a little less confidence, a little less assumed certainty, in the futures of these recruits.

I guess that goes for the team as well. I’m pretty sure the turnover on defense will iron itself out after a little bit and the 2023 team will end up with another strong, playmaking unit on that side of the ball. I’m far more skeptical about the offense and its ceiling for 2023. I think they can be good; I just know how sure I am about the likelihood of that happening.

What do we make of the schedule?
Pitt’s full 2023 schedule was released this week, and that always provides good fodder for discussion.

A few thoughts then, in no particular order:

1. Four Power Five opponents in September
Okay, I know that this is a unique year with five Saturday’s in September, so that’s part of it. But I can’t imagine there are many teams across the country that even play three Power Five teams in the month. Regardless of what you think about Cincinnati or West Virginia or North Carolina or Virginia Tech, that’s a challenging way to start.

I really liked the schedule setup the last two years, with the FCS game coming in Week Four. It served as a full break between the non-conference and conference schedules and was a nice “easy” week to gear up for the ACC. Pitt doesn’t have that this year; the Panthers open with Wofford and then dive straight into that run of four Power Five opponents (including two on the road).

That’s not easy, even if you think Pitt should win most of those games.

2. A solid spot for the off week
Pitt plays five straight weeks to open the season and then has a week off. That’s five games in November - Wofford, Cincinnati, at West Virginia, North Carolina and at Virginia Tech - and then no game on Oct. 7 before hitting the home stretch of the final seven games.

That’s not perfect, of course; I think a seven-and-five split around the off week is probably ideal, with a six-and-six split like Pitt had in 2022 ranking as the second-best option. But five-and-seven isn’t bad, and while it feels like a long slog through the final two weeks of the season when you get the off week in the first week of October, the reality is, it’s seven games in seven weeks with nine days off between the penultimate game (Boston College on a Thursday night) and the finale (Duke two Saturdays later).

3. Senior Day on a Thursday night
I don’t like this. Not at all. I’m not a sentimental type, but Senior Day should be a nice occasion, a chance to show a little appreciation for the players who have spent four or five years (or six, in some cases) toiling away for the program.

Pitt doesn’t typically get a lot of fans in the door early for the Senior Day ceremony, which is another conversation altogether. But it’s going to be even worse this year since the final home game of the season is that Thursday night tilt with Boston College.

With the exception of this past season, when Pitt played West Virginia on a Thursday night to open the season, the Panthers almost never draw well for Thursday night games. Pitt fans are never lacking when it comes to reasons for not going to games, and that’s doubly true for Thursday nights; as a result, attendance often lags.

So you’ve got Senior Day, which is usually under-attended, happening on a Thursday night, which is also usually under-attended, and I’m afraid the result will be even less support for the seniors than we typically see.

4. The new schedule format
This is the first year of the ACC’s reorganized schedule model. With the elimination of the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions, the conference went to a scheduling model that has each team facing three annual opponents and a rotation through the other 10 every two years.

For Pitt, the annual opponents (predictably) are Syracuse, Boston College and Virginia Tech. The five other teams on the schedule are former Coastal foes Duke and North Carolina as well as former Atlantic opponents Louisville, Wake Forest and Florida State.

There’s some intrigue there. Pitt, of course, hosted FSU in its first game as a member of the ACC - the 2013 season opener - but the Seminoles haven’t been back to Pittsburgh since, so that’s a 10-year reunion, of sorts. The Panthers have only faced Wake Forest once in the regular season; that was the 2018 game at Wake, and Pitt is going back to Winston-Salem this year. And after facing Louisville once in the first seven years of ACC membership, the Panthers are about to see the Cardinals for the third time in four years when they come to Pittsburgh this October.

So there’s some intrigue there.

5. Two great road trips
If you’re a Pitt fan, I’m not sure there are two better road trips than the ones on the schedule this year.

West Virginia and Notre Dame

Say what you will about Morgantown and the Mountaineer faithful - and most of the stories you’ve heard are true - it’s still a great game day environment with lots of passion and lots of energy and lots of straight-up hate. It’s glorious.

And all the cliches and narratives about Notre Dame, they’re all true, too. It really is a special place to watch a college football game. You’ll go there expecting to be underwhelmed, simply because so many of the things we’re told are great often end up letting us down. But then you’ll get there and realize it’s all true. It really is what college football games are supposed to be like.

6. Not a gauntlet
The non-conference schedule is challenging, with three Power Five opponents lined up. But the ACC schedule isn’t the worst thing in the world. FSU will be one of the favorites to win the conference; that’s going to be a tough game, but at least it’s at home. North Carolina will probably get a few votes simply due to having Drake Maye. And Duke might be a sneaky sleeper pick after Mike Elko won coach of the year following the Blue Devils’ surprising performance last season; we’ll see how they build on that performance.

But I can’t say I’m too concerned about the other teams on the schedule. Louisville beat Pitt last season, but that was a game the Panthers should have won. And I don’t think Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech or Wake Forest will be all that great this season. Pitt should be able to win those four games and get at least two of the other four - Louisville and Duke should be wins, I think - with the wild cards being the UNC and FSU games.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt will have the third-most productive season by a freshman WR since 2013
Well, that’s hyper-specific.

10 years ago, Tyler Boyd set the Pitt records for receptions and receiving yards by a freshman receiver when he caught 85 passes for 1,174 yards. He also had seven touchdown catches, but Larry Fitzgerald beat that by a few (he had 12 in 2002).

In eight of the nine seasons since then, Pitt’s freshman receivers haven’t done a whole lot.

The obvious standout since Boyd in 2013 is 2020, when Jordan Addison was Pitt’s leading receiver with 60 catches despite playing just 10 games. But other than that, the Panthers haven’t gotten a lot from their freshman wideouts.

In two of the last six years, Pitt’s freshmen haven’t caught a single pass. That includes last year, when Addison Copeland and Che Nwabuko didn’t play a single snap, let alone see any targets or make any catches.

The other year when Pitt’s freshmen didn’t have any receptions was 2017. There were three freshman receivers that season: Dontavius Butler-Jenkins, Michael Smith and Darian Street. None of those three saw the field.

Otherwise, there’s been at least one freshman to catch at least one pass in the years since Boyd set the Pitt records.

My prediction today is not that the incoming freshman receivers - Lamar Seymore, Kenny Johnson, Zion Fowler or Israel Polk - will break Boyd’s records. Nor am I predicting that they will top Addison’s 2020 season.

What I am predicting is that they’ll do better than anyone else in the last 10 years other than Boyd and Addison.

So basically, I’m saying one of those guys will catch at least 19 passes, since the non-Boyd/Addison high-water mark was Jared Wayne catching 18 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown in 2019.

Somebody will do better than that this year, simply because somebody pretty much has to. In 2022, three Pitt receivers caught at least 20 passes; two of those guys - Konata Mumpfield (58/551/1) and Bub Means (27/401/2) are back, as is tight end Gavin Bartholomew (21/283/2).

I think Pitt will push closer to 3,000 passing yards this season - the Panthers had 2,892 yards in 13 games, but that total was disproportionately in favor of Wayne - and I think there will be a more even spread of the targets beyond Mumpfield and Means. That means a freshman will need to step up.

Seymore and Polk have the upper hand as early-enrollees, but Johnson and Fowler can’t be overlooked. I don’t think more than two of those four redshirt, and I think one or two will see a good amount of playing time. I’m leaning toward Seymore; I think he’s got a shot at 20+ receptions.