The 3-2-1 Column: Recruiting superlatives, the birth of a legend and more

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about the fate of the 2020 season, the potential of Pitt’s 2021 recruiting class and how a legend could be growing.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The worst part
The last week or so has really brought the cold, hard reality of 2020 to college football fans. Optimism for a fall season is waning and the deeper fear of no season at all is creeping up.

What was once considered to be impossible is moving closer to inevitable, and…well, that sucks. It sucks to think we might not see college football for another 14 months or more. It sucks for the student-athletes who will miss a year of playing college football. And it sucks for all the ancillary people who rely on college football for income.

It sucks all the way around.

For Pitt fans, there’s a deeper fear in all of this, because they look at the 2020 team and see something they haven’t seen in quite some time:

The potential for an actual, honest-to-goodness, legitimately good team. This group returns one of the top defenses in the ACC and possibly the country to go with an offense that has a three-year starter at quarterback and enough returning experience that it almost has to be better than it was a year ago.

This is a team that could sincerely and realistically pin its goals on winning a Coastal Division title and giving Clemson a serious game in the ACC Championship. This is a team that should enter the season with designs on winning more than any Pitt team has won in 40 years.

This is a team that could be special.

And Pitt fans are watching it all slip away. Because if the season doesn’t happen, then a significant chunk of this roster will leave without ever finding out if they could produce a truly successful season in 2020.

I think that’s what’s bothering Pitt fans the most. Yes, they’re college football fans and they want to watch sports, just as a general leisure activity. But they’re also Pitt fans, first and foremost, and a large percentage of them feel very optimistic about the team Pat Narduzzi and his staff have put together for the 2020 season. The prospect of not seeing that team play, of losing a big chunk of contributors and having to go into 2021 with a not-insignificant number of first-time starters - that’s an unpleasant thought, particularly when so many things seem to be converging on 2020.

So while a cancelled college football season is bad for everyone, it might be an especially bitter pill for Pitt fans to swallow.

If there’s no 2020 season…
This is probably more of a “Question We Have” than a “Thing We Know,” but it’s a carryover from the last topic, so we’ll go with it.

If the 2020 college football season gets canceled, what will 2021 look like?

We already mentioned the personnel losses, and they will be significant. A new quarterback and a new center on offense plus a totally rebuilt defense will make for quite a period of adjustment. But what about the players who are returning?

If we assume that everybody who would have otherwise finished their eligibility this year chooses not to return but everybody with eligibility remaining does come back, the Panthers will have at least a few starters on the offensive line back in 2021. Jimmy Morrissey and Bryce Hargrove will be done, but the group of Carter Warren, Carson Van Lynn, Gabe Houy and Jake Kradel will all have at least one year left.

Pitt will also have almost all of the skill players available in 2021, so that’s a positive. Quarterback will be the big question mark, but you know what? 2021 will be Year Seven for Pat Narduzzi and this staff; if they haven’t recruited a competent quarterback who can step in and play that year, then that’s an indictment on them.

Whether it’s Nick Patti or Davis Beville or Joey Yellen, somebody has to be able to be effective at the position in 2021.

Defensively, the task is much tougher, of course. There will be losses at every level of the defense, and the replacements should be using the 2020 season to build their reps and experience, but that fades away if this coming season isn’t played.

Still, this staff has been recruiting here for seven years. They may not have a stable of all-conference players ready to step in when the 2021 season starts, but they should have enough talent to survive until the experience factor catches up.

In terms of the schedule, 2021 looks tough but manageable. Pitt has UMass, Western Michigan and New Hampshire at home and Tennessee on the road in the nonconference; obviously, one of those things is not like the other and the trip to Knoxville will be a circle-on-the-calendar game.

Pitt also gets Clemson as an Atlantic Division crossover opponent in 2021. The game is at home, but still, that one speaks for itself. Otherwise, it’s the usual cast of Coastal+Syracuse opponents, with all of the unpredictability that comes with that group of seven schools.

Like I said, it’s a schedule that has some tough spots but is not altogether impossible. And again, in Year Seven, Narduzzi should have the roster built to the point where some level of success is attainable - even with a fair amount of personnel turnover.

That might not be a team that wins 10 games and the Coastal title, but it should be one that gets at least eight victories and looks dangerous by the end of the season. If that’s the case, we’ll know that this staff has recruited and developed its talent well.

If it’s not the case…well, we’ll have that discussion when we get to it.

Top of the class
Switching the focus to recruiting, I’ve been thinking a lot about Pitt’s 2021 class lately, for a few reasons.

For starters, we’ve been making contact with the recruits in the class to check in with them and see how their summers are going. Plus, we’ve seen a number of them getting some new offers, like Nahki Johnson, who picked up an offer from LSU last week.

I think Johnson is solid with Pitt, so that’s not the point of this part of the column. Instead, thinking about the recruits in the class got me to thinking about the best recruits in the class. So, without further adieu, here’s my ranking of the top three recruits in Pitt’s 2021 class.

3. Khalil Anderson

I really like Anderson, and I think he’s considerably underrated on Rivals.com as a 5.5 three-star prospect (5.5 is the lowest Rivals rating for a three-star prospect) and the No. 95 recruit in the state of Georgia. I think that’s criminally low for Anderson, who should be at the high end of the three-star spectrum if not fully in four-star territory (which would put him among the top 30 recruits in Georgia, a talent-rich state that rivals some of the more notable football factory states like Florida, Texas and California).

Why am I so high on Anderson? Check out the film below. He’s a play-making corner who picked off seven passes last season, and he didn’t just make those picks on errant throws or poor routes by the receivers; he’s fighting for 50/50 balls and winning those contests or, in the third interception you see on his film, making a one-handed grab like he’s a receiver.

When they say cornerbacks are just receivers who can’t catch, they aren’t referring to Anderson.

He’s not just adept at getting interceptions, though. He’s also physical, and it’s not hard to imagine Pat Narduzzi and his staff sitting around watching Anderson’s film and getting excited how he engages the receiver on the line of scrimmage or how he hits the ball-carrier. Other schools have noticed, too; after Anderson committed to Pitt on June 5, he added offers from Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina and Minnesota.

I think Anderson will stick with Pitt, and I believe he has the skills to be a multi-year starter in the Panthers’ defense.

2. Malik Newton

When you talk about offer sheets, Newton might have the best one in Pitt’s class. Clemson, Louisville, Maryland, Nebraska, North Carolina, Penn State, Purdue, South Carolina, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia - we often talk about “committable” offers and how much of a recruit’s offer sheet is actually legitimate, but with Newton, I think those schools were pursuing him pretty strongly.

And for good reason. Rivals ranked him as one of the top 20 running back prospects in the nation after he rushed for 2,060 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, a performance that earned him All-Tidewater Player of the Year honors for the second consecutive year.

Newton’s hopes of breaking some rushing records as a senior were dashed when the fall season was canceled in Virginia, so he’ll have to rest on the laurels of his impressive career. And some really, really fun film. Newton is a big back who likes breaking tackles. If a defender isn’t sound in his fundamentals and technique, he’s not going to bring Newton down.

Not every big back can translate those skills to college, but Newton has as good a chance as any. We all know how much Pittsburghers love a big running back; well, Newton could be the next one to entertain the city.

1. Nahki Johnson

I’m going local for No. 1, because I believe that Pitt’s first commitment in the 2021 class just might be the Panthers’ best.

One year after getting the best defensive end in western Pa. with Dayon Hayes, Pitt did it again when it landed Johnson. Actually, it wasn’t even a year; Johnson committed to Pitt three days after Hayes did, but he’ll join the Panthers a year later, of course.

In the meantime, Narduzzi and Randy Bates and Charlie Partridge probably can’t wait to get him on campus. Johnson uses his explosiveness to disrupt offenses in so many ways, countering offensive linemen to blow up run plays and storm into the backfield to rush the quarterback.

Johnson is currently ranked a four-star prospect, No. 183 overall nationally and the No. 6 weak-side defensive end in the class of 2021. He is Pitt’s top-ranked commit, and like Anderson and Newton, I think he’ll play early in his career at Pitt.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who’s the best class now?
As you can tell, I really think Anderson, Newton and Johnson are good pickups for Pitt. They’re not the only recruits I like in the Panthers’ 2021 class; I think the other skill players on offense - running back Rodney Hammond and receivers Myles Alston and Jaden Bradley - as well as the other cornerback - Noah Biglow - all have really high ceilings.

I like the safeties - Javon McIntyre and Stephon Hall - quite a bit, too, and I think the quarterback - Nate Yarnell - could be a real steal for Pitt.

It’s a good class; solid bordering on very good. Getting senior film from those guys could have helped their rankings and this 2021 class might not be ranked very high by Signing Day if some of those senior seasons get canceled. But I think it’s a good class so far with so high-end players (and a good chance to add more).

But how does it compare to the 2020 class? I’ve been on record as saying that I think the 2020 class is the best one Narduzzi has signed at Pitt; does the 2021 class compare? Can it get close to that level or even pass the 2020 group?

Personally, I think it will be tough. The 2020 class was smaller than 2021 will be - 2020 had 18 recruits; 2021 is already close to that number with more spots to fill and it’s only mid-July - but I think last year’s class really packed a powerful punch.

Dayon Hayes was the top-ranked recruit in Pitt's 2020 class and I think he earned that ranking. But - and this will be no surprise if you’ve read these columns or Panther-Lair.com, in general, before - I really think highly of the skill players in that class.

In particular, I think Jordan Addison, Israel Abanikanda and Jaylon Barden have sky-high potential. So much so that I would say I’ll be surprised if at least two of those guys aren’t starters and all-conference contributors.

I really think they’re that good. And it wouldn’t be a shock if all three get to that level.

I’m also a really big fan of the three linebackers in the 2020 class. AJ Roberts can be the middle linebacker of the future. Bangally Kamara is sort of ideally built for the Star position. And Solomon DeShields might be one of the top five recruits in the class.

Throw in a couple large offensive linemen and a bevy of defensive backs to fill in the depth holes in the secondary and you’ve got a really good class - potentially as good a class as Pitt has signed since perhaps 2013.

I don’t think the 2021 class is there yet. Add Elliott Donald and Dorien Ford and another high-level cornerback or two and it could potentially get there. But it’s not there yet.

Did that one hurt?
Pitt got some not-so-good recruiting news on Thursday when Hampton (Va.) Phoebus outside linebacker/defensive end Trevion Stevenson announced that he was decommitting.

Stevenson’s commitment was a notable one. He committed on April 22, and when he did, he broke a three-month commitment drought for Pitt. And not only did he break a commitment, but he started a run: over the next five weeks after Stevenson committed, the Panthers landed a dozen more commitments.

Stevenson may not have caused that run of commitments, but he led the way, to some extent. And since then, he has been very vocal about Pitt, with near-daily tweets and graphics proclaiming his future as a Panther (it seemed to be near-daily, but I can’t confirm that since he has deleted all Pitt-related material from his Twitter account).

So Pitt’s class dropped from 18 commits to 17 and fell from being ranked as the No. 29 class nationally to No. 31. Chances are, he won’t be the last decommitment; just playing the odds here - with this many early commitments, there are bound to be some recruits who back off their pledges.

It’s not good news, of course, but it’s also not the worst possible news. Stevenson wasn’t in my top three of the class - I already listed those guys above - and I probably would have to get pretty deep into my rankings before coming to him. I think he has some intriguing potential as a pass-rushing outside linebacker who would need to bulk up pretty considerably to play defensive end in college.

But Charlie Partridge believed in that potential, so I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Still, Johnson is the premier pass-rusher in the class, and I think Pitt is involved with a couple other really good defensive ends - prospects who are probably a little more advanced in their development as defensive ends.

With 17 commitments and as many as eight spots to fill, I see the staff going for one more linebacker, one more cornerback and three more defensive linemen and then filling the rest of the class with the best available players. A second tight end would be a nice addition and I’m sure the staff wouldn’t mind getting a fifth offensive lineman, so those are two places to start. But I wouldn’t rule out much at this point in the recruiting process.

ONE PREDICTION

The legend will grow
Bringing it back to the beginning of the column…

If (or maybe when) the 2020 season gets outright canceled, I think we’re going to see something happen. Call it the growth of a legend, because the legend of the 2020 team will start to bloom.

As time passes from the official cancellation of the season, first through the fall, then into the next six months and beyond, we’ll talk more and more about how great Pitt’s defense would have been. We’ll regurgitate at length the returning production, the caliber of the talent and the overall star power of the defense when some of those guys go on to have successful NFL careers.

And we’ll talk about how Kenny Pickett would have done in his senior year, how consistency with the offensive coordinator would have made all the difference, how experience would have greatly benefited the offensive line and how the tight end would have become a strength of the team.

Basically, it will be all the stuff we’ve said in the offseason; we’ll just be able to keep saying it since there won’t be an actual season to ruin all the expectations.

Things will really amplify when Pitt does start playing games again. Like I mentioned earlier, there’s a good chance the team will take a step back in 2021 from where it was expected to be in 2020, just due to the personnel losses. Then the disappointment of that next season will only compound the imagined results of the lost 2020 season.

“Look at how they’re struggling against good passing attacks; man, just imagine how good that defense would have been last season.”

At some point, we’ll probably talk ourselves into Jaylen Twyman or Patrick Jones or Paris Ford doing an Aaron Donald-like cleanup of major national awards and consensus, if not unanimous, All-America status. And like I mentioned, if some of those guys go on to have success in the NFL, it will only further exacerbate the situation.

If the 2020 season is never played, the 2020 Pitt team will be one of the legends of the program’s history. It will always be talked about - the team that could have been.