The 3-2-1 Column: Quarterback change, a much-needed bye week, and more

The Pitt Panthers are off to a dreadful 1-4 start to the 2023 football season. Pitt is coming off of a 38-21 defeat to Virginia Tech last weekend, but the schedule makers did the Panthers a favor with a well timed bye week.

This football team needed a week to reset some things and apparently that is exactly what happened. There was some big news to drop earlier this week about the starting quarterback position and we get right into that and a whole bunch of other things in this week’s 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The change happened at quarterback
Pitt’s game in Blacksburg this past Saturday went about as poorly as it could from all angles, but the root of the problem was clearly present throughout the game. When Pitt fell behind 38-21 with 6:06 left in the game on Saturday, starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec had five completions.

Five.

Pitt had opportunities to make it a game, flip momentum, or even make the score more respectable, but at each turn the offense sputtered. The Panthers connected on two long scoring plays against Virginia Tech, but otherwise the offense’s best drive of the game traveled 37 yards on nine plays and it ended with a missed field goal attempt.

Pitt only generated nine first downs for the game and had to punt six times, with four of those possessions being three-and-out scenarios. When the clock mercifully hit 0:00, Pitt finished the game with 273 yards of total offense, the third time in five games this season the Panthers failed to eclipse 300 yards. The offense scored only scored twice against the Hokies, which now gives them a total of seven offensive touchdowns in four games against power-five competition.

The writing was on the wall, and it has been for a while, that it was time to make a change at quarterback. After a few weeks of wrestling with the prospect of making a move, Pat Narduzzi has seemingly made the change and relieved Phil Jurkovec of his starting duties in favor of Christian Veilleux. Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported on Wednesday that Jurkovec was indeed benched and the team plans to start Veilleux next week when the Panthers host Louisville.

I think with all the information laid out above, there was really no other answer to make a move. Pitt’s offense was simply not working with Jurkovec running the show. They need a spark, or at the very least, to try something different.

There was always an inherent risk going with Jurkovec as the starting quarterback this season and I think mostly everyone recognized that. If he was not originally from Pittsburgh and had prior success with Frank Cignetti Jr., then bringing in an often-injured quarterback from Boston College who has not had a good season since 2020 would have been a tough sell.

Jurkovec holds a 51.9% completion percentage through five games, the offense isn't scoring touchdowns, or even moving the ball. Making the change was really the only option the team has to salvage this season, but in the same sense to also see what they have for next year. After a fourth straight loss and bowl eligibility seeming out of reach, there is not any real value in playing Jurkovec any further because he is out of eligibility after this year.

Pitt needs to see what they have in Veilleux with a significant look in real game scenarios, but also they should be willing to try Nate Yarnell if the situation calls for it. The Panthers’ season is not exactly going anywhere, but at least a move like this feels like they are getting a head start on trying to make improvements for next year.

The story within the story is, of course, is this story leaking out of the program under the watchful eye of Narduzzi. The Pitt head coach does not like to reveal personnel decisions or injury news to reporters, so I have to assume the story of him benching his starting quarterback midseason on a bye week has to irk the secretive head coach. It should also make for a more entertaining press conference on Monday.

A much-needed bye week
Speaking of a bye week, this Pitt team needed one in the worst way. The Panthers are reeling right now with four straight losses and they really have a lot to clean up with themselves before they can even really start to worry about an opponent.

Pitt needs to figure out how to generate more offensive production, clean up some tackling miscues on defense, and just go into next week with a fresh start. It sounds cliché, but sometimes a reset or a bye week really can help a football team.

I know the benching of Phil Jurkovec seemed like it would never happen, but there were clues along the way that if Narduzzi was going to make a switch that the timing would have to make sense. The handoff to Christian Veilleux happening on a bye week with extra time to prepare with the first team and getting him his first start at home is about as clean as you could hope for to make the transition.

Veilleux’s first significant game action this season happened in the second half against North Carolina two weeks ago and he struggled with a pair of interceptions and only 88 passing yards. The Panthers were already down 11 points when he took over and it wasn’t exactly a fair scenario to judge anything off of for Veilleux.

When you think of first time starting quarterbacks, typically you go in with a basic game plan, a scripted offense, and dial up some easy throws for him to gain confidence. He didn’t get that chance and he was asked to try to keep pace with Drake Maye with his team already trailing by two scores.

I think the bye week certainly pushed along the transition at quarterback more quickly, and I wonder if the team had a game tomorrow if the change would have occurred.

The move needed to happen no doubt, but the timing needed to be right and this clearly makes the most sense. He’ll get the chance to run that scripted, easy game plan against Louisville and will start the game with a clean slate.

The bye week should also give Pitt, a team reeling with injuries, a chance to get healthy as well. Pitt’s offensive line has been jumbled all year with four starting combinations in five games, but I think this extra week off should get Jake Kradel healthy enough to get back into the lineup, which should help shore up an area that needs improved. I am guessing he will slide back in at guard and the team will roll with Terrence Moore at center. I think historically Kradel is a better guard than center and the line should improve with him back in the lineup and it should only be a benefit for a new starting quarterback.

The Panthers were without defensive starters Devin Danielson and Bangally Kamara against Virginia Tech. Bub Means left with an injury. Rodney Hammond disappeared in the second half with presumably an injury. All in all, the bye week should help heal some early season bumps and bruises, make the quarterback switch easier, and also just stop the bleeding of four straight losses.

The freshman class is showing promise
There are few positives to take from a 1-4 football team, but I do think there have been some encouraging signs from Pitt’s freshman class. The Panthers currently have 29 players on scholarship with freshmen eligibility, 19 true freshmen and 10 redshirt freshmen. The freshmen class is the largest on the team, ahead of 24 current seniors on the roster.

I like the look of this group and these two classes could be a core of the program going forward. There have been significant plays made by freshmen in recent weeks, a few of them earning a lot of playing time, and a number of others who I think will ultimately be good players down the line.

Ryan Baer is the team’s starting right tackle for the foreseeable future. Kyle Louis has earned consecutive stats at linebacker. Kenny Johnson had a 100-yard kickoff return earlier this year. Braylan Lovelace became the third true freshman to score a defensive touchdown under Narduzzi. Samuel Okunlola has a pair of sacks, and Rasheem Biles blocking two punts is worth noting. Even BJ Williams notched a start as freshman, the first Pitt offensive linemen to do that since 2013.

There have not been a ton of great plays this season, but a good chunk of them have been made by Pitt’s freshmen class. The Panthers have to be encouraged with that group for sure and I see some good things coming from there in the future.

Baer and Williams getting starts are good things. I think they are going through some freshmen growing pains, but experience can be the best teacher. Pitt’s offensive line group has sort of been the same cluster of guys for four seasons now and it’s going to flip eventually, and having a pair of freshmen out there is going to benefit them in the long run.

Johnson can be one of the team’s top receivers as early as next season and I think he really needs to see more touches this year and I expect that to happen down the stretch. I really wouldn’t stop with him either. Pitt should give Israel Polk, Lamar Seymore, and Zion Fowler-El some looks as well. Veilleux worked with the second team receivers the most during camp, so there is probably a connection already in place and it's worth giving them a shot.

Louis is already starting, Lovelace is playing a ton, and Biles is making an impact on special teams. It’s also worth noting, Jordan Bass was the highest rated recruit of the group, so the collection of young linebackers has a real chance to be a strength moving forward.

Okunlola is making plays, and I think if he stays healthy then there will be more looks for Sean FitzSimmons as well. Plus I still like the overall outlook of Isaiah Neal even if he does not play much this year. Pitt’s defensive line should always be competitive with Partridge running the show.

There are definite bright spots for this program waiting in the wings, but it's encouraging to see them making plays right now. The past three years have been weird for roster management and construction all across college football with guys getting extra years of eligibility and clogging playing time. It feels like Pitt had some empty recruiting classes as they leaned on older players for the past couple of seasons and the 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes sort of represent things getting back to normal on the roster and it’s looking like it can be a promising group for this program to boot.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What can Pitt do to improve on offense?
*Step One: Change quarterback. Check.*

Now what? The Pitt offense needs to find some kind of rhythm here to close out the final seven games of the season. I don’t like to speculate about job security for coaches, but let’s just call a spade a spade here. In 2018, Shawn Watson’s offense ranked 98th in total yards (368.7) and 94th in scoring (25.6 ppg). Mark Whipple did not get fired in 2020, but if Kenny Pickett did not return to school, he likely would have been let go. Whipple’s 2020 offense ranked 79th in total offense (379.6) and 58th in scoring (29 ppg).

Pitt’s 2023 offense under the direction of Frank Cignetti is 121st in total yards, pumping out 308.2 per game. The Panthers are 96th in scoring with 23.4 points per game, but don’t forget two of the 15 touchdowns Pitt has this season are from the defense and special teams.

If Watson’s offense was not good enough to retain his spot and Whipple needed Pickett to save his job, then the numbers Cignetti’s group is putting up does not make for a positive outlook for him moving forward. The Panthers need to put together a better offensive production for the remainder of the year period.

I think when you start a first time quarterback, then it reduces some things and condenses the playbook, but I think that will actually benefit the team moving forward. Pitt needs to find a way to isolate its best players and get them the ball. The offense was not overly effective last season, but they featured Israel Abanikanda and Jared Wayne. Cignetti knew he had two playmakers and did everything he could to get them the ball.

I think making that the plan this year is what needs to happen. I understand there has been little flow to the offense to use all of its parts, but good things happen when Gavin Bartholomew gets targeted, Konata Mumpfield has been catching almost everything, and Rodney Hammond has had flashes of good play this season. I do not think the wheel needs invented here, but those three should be on the field as much as possible and getting the bulk of the touches.

There is a space for C’Bo Flemister to spell Hammond, and he showed he can make things happen as well. The breakout season for Bub Means is not coming through, but the 75-yard touchdown last week shows there are opportunities to get him involved. I also think it is worth getting more touches for Kenny Johnson, and even another one of the freshmen receivers should sneak onto the field.

The playbook with Veilleux will be overly simplistic, but I think that is what this team needs. The Panthers just need to make dump-offs to to Bartholomew, or to give the ball to Johnson in space, or have Mumpfield streak across the middle.

There can be play action to help set up some easy throws, but also alleviate the pressure on the running game. If those middle passes start to connect, then it gives the running backs more space to operate…then that opens up the screen game.

It can go on and on, but this offense, which is supposed to be ‘balanced’ is meant for one thing to open up another thing. Pitt is not doing anything well on offense this year, so none of its parts are working off of each other, but moving forward simply getting one element working should unlock more play calling variety. Pitt did not need stellar offensive production to beat Cincinnati and West Virginia, or even Virginia Tech that matter, it just needed to be competent and that should be the starting point heading into the Louisville game.

The easy fix is for the offensive line to improve, but that will be an uphill battle with the injuries, so then it comes down to making the simple plays. Pitt hasn’t been able to do that at all this year, so break the offense down to one-read throws, getting favorable matchups, and putting the ball in your best players’ hands.

What’s the level of optimism around basketball?
I think with it being a bye week, I can step away from football for a minute. The Pitt basketball team opened practice last week for the 2023-24 season and since then Jeff Capel has met with the media and different players have done the same. It has been a breathe of fresh air given the way the football season is playing out, but also for Capel’s program in general.

Pitt is coming off a 24-win NCAA Tournament season. The Panthers secured a good recruiting class, and the leading scorer and rebounder from last year’s team is back for another year. I can’t really recall this kind of upbeat vibe around Pitt basketball in a while.

There is always something that happens with the program before every new season, and this year was no different. I think they got that out of the way already with Dior Johnson’s late dismissal from the university right before classes were starting and also Papa Amadou Kante’s season-ending injury.

It has not been the perfect build-up to the season, but even with those setbacks, I think the energy is good around the program is really good. Pitt might not be pegged to finish near the top of the ACC in the preseason, but I also think this team has a roster that can go in and compete this year regardless of outside expectations. The Panthers have not had some pleasant off-seasons under Capel, but this one feels different because at least they got that tournament berth out of the way, they have some returning talent, and the recruiting class is undeniably better than some previous years. There is actual momentum for a change.

The starting point to Pitt’s team is Blake Hinson, so right off the bat I like their chances. He was superb last year, and if Hinson can replicate his 2023 performance this year, then that’s great for this team. If he has added more to his game, then that’s huge. Hinson looks to have trimmed down, which should add more ways for him to score than just hunting three-pointers. Hinson will have every chance to be a first team All-ACC performer this season and I think he is going to be one of the best scorers in the league.

The trio of Federiko Federiko, Guillermo Diaz Graham, and Jorge Diaz Graham also gives the Panthers significant game experience in the post, something this program has lacked for many years. Pitt has not had much stability at this position under Capel, but it feels like these three have flipped that script.

It still remains to be seen if Zack Austin and Ish Leggett can make the same impact Nelly Cummings and Greg Elliott had as transfers last season, but they do look like fits to what Pitt is trying to do offensively. Plus, the two freshmen guards, Carlton Carrington and Jaland Low, have the makeup of players Capel can build around for a few seasons.

The season is still a month away, but I get the sense perhaps Pitt fans are ready for football to be over and will be looking forward to seeing the basketball team. It has not felt that way in Oakland for a while, but during Pitt's Big East years, basketball season often offered a reprieve for a disappointing Panthers' football campaign and that sentiment is creeping back into the mindset.

ONE PREDICTION

The 2024 Quarterback competition starts now
If you watched the Panther-Lair.com live show on Wednesday night, this was an ‘ah ha’ moment for me because I was not sure of what prediction I was going to make for this column in the middle of football season during a bye week, but I have found sometimes you can talk long enough to come up with an idea.

My prediction this week is that the final seven games of the season are actually the start of Pitt’s quarterback competition for the 2024 season. The way I see it, there are four outcomes that can possibly come out of these next seven games.

1) Veilleux will have a leg up on the starting job.

2) Nate Yarnell will be the favorite

3) Veilleux and Yarnell are both competent to be the starter and the battle will continue

4) Pitt needs to find a transfer quarterback to start next year.

That’s it. Maybe Ty Diffenbach pulls the ultimate upset and steals the job during spring ball, but he has yet to dress this season with an apparent injury, so he is behind on his development. So it’s pretty simple really: Pitt either has a quarterback on its roster the coaches feel comfortable starting next season or they don’t. They now have seven games to figure out that question with real in-game evaluations of the most important position on the field.

The most noteworthy thing about the Jurkovec being demoted story is that he reportedly slid all the way to No. 3 on the depth chart and will be working with the tight ends going forward. If Veilleux struggles or gets injured, then Yarnell will be the next man up, which again, is the smart play. Jurkovec adds no value to what the coaches are trying to figure out, which is who can be the starting quarterback in 2024.

There has to be some meaning or value for winning the No. 2 job in camp, so Veilleux is going to get a long, extended look, at least in the Louisville game. I don’t think he needs to be looking over his shoulder with every bad pass or turnover, but rather you need to see how he responds and adjusts to mistakes on the fly.

There is also time to give Yarnell that same opportunity if Veilleux struggles for an extended period of time. If he can’t move the ball at all for multiple games, then that is when you can turn and look to see what Yarnell provides, or at the very least go with some kind of in-game rotation using both of them.

There is time to do all of this, seven games in fact, so the quarterback competition is starting now. One of these two guys are the starter will be the starter for the 2024 team, or Pitt will be back combing the transfer portal in two months.