The 3-2-1 Column: QB talk, previewing North Carolina, and more QB talk

In this week’s 3-2-1 column, we are focused entirely on the state of the 2023 Pitt football team. The Panthers are 1-2 a quarter of the way through the season, and there are more questions than answers about this team right now.

Pitt is not receiving good quarterback play, but Pat Narduzzi has been reluctant to make a change. It’s not an ideal situation to be in either, as the 17th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels coming to town tomorrow for the team’s ACC opener.

We preview tomorrow night’s game and examine all the happenings around this team as they enter the fourth game of the 2023 season.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

This quarterback situation is actually madness
There was not really too much suspense heading into Pat Narduzzi’s final press briefing of the week on Thursday regarding the team’s quarterback situation. The Pitt head coach confirmed Phil Jurkovec will be the team’s starting quarterback on Saturday against North Carolina, just like he did following the West Virginia game, and it pretty much was the same message he had at his Monday press conference as well.

He’s been consistent in his stance, there has been no question about that. What he said on Thursday did not really elicit a surprise or shock, but rather anger and apathy for those who follow this program. Panther-Lair.com is the largest online Pitt presence on the internet and I can see all of those angry comments and trust me, there have been a lot of them.

The term 'fans’ is short for fanatics, and sometimes rational thought does not always go with the team you support, but in this case, Pitt fans are absolutely right about this situation. This team does need better quarterback play and there has been very little evidence from the first three weeks that Jurkovec is capable of delivering on that.

The whole situation is pure madness and there is no other way to put it.

Jurkovec is not just playing poorly, but rather he is costing the team games. There is a difference between the two things and it is something a nine-year head coach should understand. He is 18-for-52 with four turnovers over the past two games. It’s not really acceptable.

I know he has been quick to point it has been ‘everybody’ who is not playing up to par on offense, and sure I can buy that. The offensive line has had some struggles, same with the receivers and running backs. That’s all well and good, but quarterback can either raise the level of play of his teammates or mask issues of others. When the quarterback is playing poorly, every detal can come to light, and oh has it ever the past two games.

Narduzzi has a defensive background and his team have played with that mindset since he arrived, and that’s perfectly fine all things considered. The thing is, as a defensive coach, Narduzzi really values the turnover battle. It is not unique for head coaches to hold that statistic in high regard and following the West Virginia game, he blamed the loss on turnovers.

OK then…

If I have this correctly, he can live with the low yardage output and all that by his offense, but they better not turn the ball over. Well here’s the thing, Jurkovec is doing a lot of that right now.

Pitt’s starting quarterback has four turnovers over the last six quarters he has played. His fumble against Cincinnati in the third quarter led to a touchdown in a game where Pitt lost by only six points. Jurkovec threw three interceptions in last week’s Backyard Brawl, none of which were close to being completed might I add, and two of those takeaways directly led to West Virginia 10 points. A quick reminder that West Virginia only had 17 points for the game and couldn’t even move the ball.

I’ll play devil’s advocate here a little. Even if Narduzzi planned to start another quarterback on Saturday, judging from how he has operated for years, the last group of people he would tell is a bunch of reporters with the cameras rolling at a press conference.

Does that mean there is chance for hope? Eh, I wouldn’t count on it.

I expected Jurkovec to start all along this week. I expected Narduzzi to say what he said on Thursday, too. I also feel confident in saying it does not feel the right decision, nor one I would make and I can’t imagine I would too many others who are following this season would disagree.

The situation with the ‘other’ quarterbacks
It does seem like Jurkovec is starting on Saturday, so we can get that part out of the way. But I don’t think the book is closed on him ever being replaced this season, whether it be in the middle of the game tomorrow or perhaps the following game at Virginia Tech.

I do believe this is all on the table, and Narduzzi said as much on Thursday.

“I’m going to be patient with it. No one’s saying there’s not going to be a change, but I look at the whole picture. I see everything. I don’t see - the little things are just this - I have to look at the overall picture and I think I’m smart enough and I’ve done it long enough that we’ll make the right decision when the time is right. And hopefully you guys will come in here and say, ‘Coach, you’re damn right. Good job.’

This little snippet from his Thursday press briefing seems like the tides are a least being turned to make a change. Whether it’s too late to make that switch is up for debate, but it seems like the coaches are picking their spot when to make a move.

I can see mob mentality of wanting someone — anyone under center other than Jurkovec, and I understand that. But I also sort of see where he is coming from on his bigger picture line of thinking as well, even if I don’t necessarily agree with it from my view in the press box.

Pitt’s offensive line has not been very good this year as a whole, but individually Matt Goncalves has been as good as advertised. Goncalves was injured in the West Virginia game and he did not return. I would imagine his status is questionable at best for tomorrow against North Carolina. If that is indeed the case, you would likely have redshirt freshman Ryan Baer making his first career start at left tackle, which is probably the second most important position on the field behind quarterback.

So effectively by making the switch at quarterback for the first quarter tomorrow, you would have a quarterback/left tackle combination making its first career start together against a top-20 team. And to expand on that point further, the starting assignment for the backup quarterback would be playing behind an offensive line struggling to pass block in general and potentially without the preseason All-ACC left tackle on top of that. Then there’s the added pressure of being the savior of the offense and also snapping a two-game losing streak.

It is certainly not an ideal scenario to transition to the backup quarterback, but we also live an imperfect world, right?

I think obviously there is some more familiarity with Nate Yarnell, the No. 3 quarterback listed on the depth chart. Yarnell was a surprise recruit from Texas in the 2021 signing class and committed to Pitt without ever having seen the campus, as his senior year of high school was during the pandemic.

The 6’6” Yarnell redshirted in 2021, but was pressed into duty last year in a spot start and performed admirably. He delivered a 9-of-12 performance in a win over Western Michigan and tossed 179 yards and one touchdown. Yarnell was not asked to do a whole lot that game, but then again, either was Jurkovec last week. If nothing else, he has shown he can manage a game.

The more likely option if/when Pitt makes a move at quarterback is Christian Veilleux, the listed backup on the depth chart. Veilleux got to show off a little in Pitt’s week one win over Wofford when he got to play the entire fourth quarter. He went 5-for-9 for 60 yards and connected on a 39-yard touchdown against the Terriers.

The redshirt sophomore began his career at Penn State, and his most notable performance came when he was a true freshman in 2021. The Nittany Lions called on Veilleux in late-season game against Rutgers after an injury to their starter, and he put up a great performance. Veilleux was 15-of-24 for 235 yards and three scores.

At the end of the day we’re talking about two solid performance against the likes of Rutgers and Western Michigan for Pitt’s two alternative options at quarterback. It’s not a lot to work off of, but it’s a starting point.

Pitt has a game against a ranked team tomorrow
The talk all week around Pitt football has been about its own housekeeping. The Panthers are in such a pickle with its quarterback situation that you almost forget they have one of their toughest games of their season tomorrow night at Acrisure Stadium.

North Carolina is 3-0, ranked No. 17, and they have a talented roster highlighted by future NFL first round pick Drake Maye. It would be a tall order for the Panthers under normal circumstances, let alone the current 1-2 predicament they find themselves in at the moment.

Maye is very good and I am not sure if he is going to make a serious run at the Heisman with only four touchdowns through three games, but I do not expect him to fall out of the top 10 of the next April’s NFL Draft. He has that kind of ability and skillset and Pitt got a good taste of it last year.

Despite Pitt holding a 24-14 lead in the early stages of the second half in last year’s game against North Carolina, Maye and company outscored the Panthers 28-0 down the stretch to secure the win. Maye threw for 388 yards and five touchdowns against the Panthers defense. His mobility is also a factor, as he rushed for over 650 yards last season. Maye could very possibly be the best player Pitt will face all season.

The Tar Heels are giving him a little bit more support this season in different ways. North Carolina is still ironing out some issues at wide receiver after losing some good ones from last year to the NFL, but Nate McCollum recorded a whopping 15 catches last week against Minnesota. The Heels also have an improved ground game with Omarion Hampton and British Brooks both churning out production there.

Given Pitt’s current state of affairs on offense, any defense could present a challenge. The Tar Heels have not been known for their defensive prowess since Mack Brown returned, but they also recruit very well, so there’s some talent, and they have simply shown signs of improvement this year.

The nine team sacks against South Carolina in the season opener might have been an anomaly, but UNC only had 17 sacks last year as a team, so there is definitely some improvement and they look to be finding themselves in less shootouts this year than in previous seasons under Brown, as their scoring defense went from allowing 30 points per game in 2022 down to around 21 points per game this year.

North Carolina avoids Florida State in the regular season and even with some tough games against the likes of Miami, Duke, and Clemson sprinkled throughout the schedule, things do set up nicely for this team to make a run as well. Pitt has some serious internal issues at hand, but they have a very tough opponent coming to town tomorrow, which makes it all the more difficult .

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What do we make of Pitt’s defense through three games?
There have three games played and I still do not have a good read on Pitt’s defense for the 2023 season. It’s almost funny though, because the Panthers’ rank towards the top of the country in some major categories. For instance, Pitt is currently fifth nationally in total defense, surrendering only 236 yards per game.

I think if we peel things back bit, there is a bit more to the story. Pitt’s passing defense currently ranks No. 2 in the country, but that number will likely come down when the schedule picks up, but also because of how the Panthers play on that side of the ball with their aggressive style of attacking in the front seven. Wofford and West Virginia did not really have the ability to throw the ball, and Cincinnati was just OK there.

Pitt does have good cornerbacks in MJ Devonshire and Marquis Williams and I think everyone is still waiting to see how the safeties perform in conference play. The pass defense might be good, but for now it’s hard to say it’s anything more than a product of the competition. West Virginia only attempted 11 passes last week, so it’s still an unknown how Pitt will stand up for four quarters once they see more complex offense that attacks downfield.

While Pitt’s passing numbers are probably inflated, the two areas where the Panthers usually excel are down at the start of the season. Pitt has been the best pass rushing team in college football over the past four seasons, but they only have nine sacks through three games, below the team's usual torrid pace. It’s not to say Pitt’s pass rush can’t be effective this season with the likes of Dayon Hayes and David Green, but two of the games featured very little drop back attempts by the opponent, which has led to fewer pass rushing opportunities.

Pitt’s sack numbers usually help the overall figures in run defense, but this scheme is also designed to stop the ground game in general. The Panthers have ranked in the top 15 nationally in run defense in each of the past four seasons, but currently Pitt sits 62nd in the country, allowing 122 yards per game.

There is no doubt Cincinnati gashed Pitt on the ground in the first half of that week two game, but overall I think Pitt’s run defense has been suitable, though probably below their usual standard. West Virginia did rack up 151 yards last week, but the Mountaineers only averaged three yards per attempt which is a good working number. Although, Pitt has allowed back-to-back games with an individual 100-yard rusher, which generally does not happen against this defense.

The North Carolina game is going to be a challenge and should help paint more of a picture of what this Pitt defense is at the moment and can ultimately be this season. This defense has a lot of new faces in key roles, but the numbers are a bit out of whack from the nor,, so even a quarter of the way through the season we still do not know how good this unit actually is.

What can Pitt actually do to win this game?
I think we have covered all the bases to this point. Pitt has a crisis going on at quarterback and there is still some uncertainty with its defense as well. Conversely, North Carolina has a future NFL superstar quarterback leading an undefeated team full of former four-star recruits. All of that should equal about a 300-point North Carolina victory tomorrow, right?

Well, Vegas has the line at about 7.5 points right now in favor of the Tar Heels. It is a comfortable margin for a team playing on the road, but hardly an expected blowout like some are anticipating. While I think Pitt has major issues at quarterback, they aren’t that bad of a team overall, so that may have something to do with the line, plus North Carolina does have some flaws outside of Maye.

For this exercise, we will just assume North Carolina is that much better than Pitt and that the quarterback issues are probably a lot more dire than even the oddsmakers realize. So how can Pitt actually win this game? Here are my three keys:

Pitt needs to establish the running game *with* Rodney Hammond.

I have been a proponent of Pitt running the ball more, not just because of the struggles with the passing game, but because I believe this can still be an asset. The Panthers showed a little bit of it last week on the first drive, but again, you need to be able to throw to keep defenses honest. Pitt has been in the midst of a three-man rotation at running back, and I think that needs to end. If Pitt can establish Rodney Hammond getting a lot of touches, then the offense will be more suited for success. He's their best back and they need to keep feeding him the ball.

Sack Maye like crazy

Pitt has won the past two meetings with North Carolina at Acrisure Stadium with overtime victories in 2019 and 2021. Those two results ended a long stretch of Pitt losing to North Carolina in heartbreaking fashion in almost every year since the Panthers joined the league. In both of those games, Pitt leaned heavily on Kenny Pickett to get the win and obviously he isn't around anymore, but the other area where they got to UNC was with defensive pressure. They sacked Sam Howell five times in 2019 and five more times in 2021. It might be harder to pull off tomorrow with Maye’s mobility, but Pitt’s pass rush has had success against UNC offensive lines in recent history, which has helped tip a few wins in their favor.

Force turnovers
I know, real novel concept here, but Pitt has only generated three turnovers this season. The defense has not surrendered a ton of points or yards through three games, but they need to have more game-changing plays in light of how their offense has played. Pitt simply needs for a big play to fall into its lap whether it’s a defensive touchdown, blocked kick, kickoff return — anything like that. Pitt’s offense is not good enough to stand toe to toe with North Carolina’s for four quarters, but a couple of splash plays can make all the difference. Pitt’s neighbors, the Steelers, needed two defensive scores on Monday Night Football to get a win over the Browns. It is a hard ask, but I mean sometimes that’s the assignment.

ONE PREDICTION

More than one quarterback plays for Pitt on Saturday
This prediction can be looked at as both a good and a bad thing, I think. I have seen nothing from Phil Jurkovec that tells me he will be able to lead Pitt’s offense effectively for four quarters on Saturday. He hasn’t received bad breaks or anything on his turnovers, but rather these throws are sailing or skipping on him nearly every passing attempt.

I know Pat Narduzzi has said he isn’t quick to pull a quarterback or he has placed blame on the entire offense for the lack of production, but at the end of the day the root of the problem is exactly what it looks like. You know the old saying, ‘If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.’

The ducks have been flying for the Pitt offense lately and I think eventually the team will have to make a change at quarterback and I expect it to be this weekend. I can’t see Pitt pulling off an upset here and by the time this game ends the season will be a third of the way completed. The clock is ticking, so to speak.

I expect if the game starts getting away from Pitt, or even if the game is within reach and the offense is sputtering, the coaches will make the change to Christian Veilleux. I think some of the comments Narduzzi made on Thursday suggest to me they are getting closer and this will be the game it happens.