The 3-2-1 Column: Previewing the 2023 Pitt football season

The 2023 college football season is right around the corner, as Pitt will be taking the field against Wofford one week from tomorrow in the opening game at Acrisure Stadium. It is starting to feel like that time, so I am devoting the entire 3-2-1 Column this week to serve as my preview for Pitt’s upcoming 2023 season.

I get into all the things to like and dislike about this team heading into the new year. Pitt has a number of breakout candidates and I give some thoughts on who that may be along with some potential freshmen who could make an impact this year.

The ACC has a familiar look with Clemson and Florida State expected to be at the top, but how far off is Pitt from those top two schools? How about the rest of the league? I also give my full season record prediction and my thoughts of the ceiling and floor of this particular Pitt team with a new season on the horizon.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

There are the reasons to be excited about 2023 Pitt football
The 2023 Pitt football team has a new feeling around it, but also at the same time not really. The program has taken on a sense of stability under Pat Narduzzi as he enters his ninth season as the head coach at Pitt. Narduzzi’s fingerprints are all over the program now, and Pitt’s brand of football is similar from year to year. With that thought in mind, I think that is an advantage they can carry into this season. In fact, should be one of the defining reasons for optimism in my opinion.

The Panthers are coming off of back-to-back top 25 finishes, with 20 overall wins the past two seasons, and an ACC Championship not too far off in the distance. While the program lost a lot of the key figures from those two teams, a lot of them are still around and helps build a pretty good foundation for this year’s squad.

Pitt boasts multiple returning starters on each side of the ball who contributed to that 2021 championship run. Jake Kradel and Matt Goncalves each have blocked for some special offensive performances in each of the past two seasons on the offensive line. Rodney Hammond and Gavin Bartholomew played vital roles as freshmen in 2021 and they will be stepping into more prominent positions as juniors.

Pitt’s defense is usually based around having a large rotation of players, making transition years a bit easier, which appears to be the case here. Even though Pitt lost four starters who went on to be NFL draft picks in April in Calijah Kancey, SirVocea Dennis, Brandon Hill, and Erick Hallett, they can still build this 2023 defense around experience.

The defensive tackle trio of Tyler Bentley, Devin Danielson, and David Green have 37 career starts between them. The linebackers return two starters off of last year’s team in Bangally Kamara and Shayne Simon. The cornerbacks are fronted by Marquis Williams with 34 career starts to his name, plus MJ Devonshire who has appeared in 26 games (9 starts) over the past two years.

Even with some significant losses to account for, this team is hardly starting from scratch on either side of the ball. It should also not be overlooked that a lot of Pitt’s seniors opted out of the Sun Bowl last season, which allowed for some underclassmen to get more significant run against a tough opponent like UCLA. Many of the players who led the team to that Sun Bowl win are the core for this year’s team, which in a way helped spark the offseason.

That’s just it, too. Pitt’s calling card has been experience and development as of late, and this year’s roster mirrors a similar blueprint.

There are some exciting newcomers that should bring optimism as well. The quarterback play left a lot to be desired last season with Kedon Slovis as the starter and the hope is that Phil Jurkovec can reset the position altogether. Jurkovec comes to Pitt with prior success under offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. and the hope is that they can pick up where they left off when they were at Boston College together for two seasons.

In addition from the coaching connections and even Jurkoevec returning to his Pittsburgh roots, somewhere in there is a pretty talented quarterback and it could be a risk/reward type of situation. Jurkovec looked sharp in a pretty successful 2020 season and had some NFL buzz, but injuries and poor offensive line play sidetracked those discussions the past two years. If his health can pair with that type of 2020 production, then Pitt’s offense could have a lot of potential upside.

The idea for this Pitt to be successful is potentially pairing an improved offense with what you tend to expect from their defense and that could possibly be enough to win a lot of football games in the ACC. Pitt has done a better job than most programs in this league since Narduzzi’s arrival.

The Panthers’ head coach can sometimes be overlooked nationally, but when the raw numbers get recited, he’s probably been the best of any coach in the conference not named Dabo Swinney. Pitt has pieced together two pretty good seasons in a row, they are sending guys to the league, and they’ve done so in a quiet manner even when they are discussed in ACC circles.

I think the optimistic approach to this 2023 Pitt team is pretty simple. Narduzzi has done a good job the past couple of seasons competing towards the top of the ACC. The defense has a pretty good reputation with multiple years of production in a row, plus now the offense has potential to be good, or at least better than last season.

I also think avoiding Clemson and getting their two toughest conference games (Florida State and North Carolina) at home also has to count for something. The 2023 Pitt team brings plenty of reasons for optimism in thinking this could be another successful season for the program.

These are the reasons to be skeptical about 2023 Pitt football
I personally believe Pitt’s offense will be better in 2023. I think the pause about this team right now, however, is wondering if that improvement will be enough to move the needle, or if it even happens at all.

Pitt’s passing game was suspect in 2022, as it finished 79th in the country with 222.3 yards per game. It is hard to not have that lasting memory either. The Panthers still managed to win nine games, and it felt like they were a quarterback away from having another big year. Last season unfolded the way it did with a transfer quarterback and the plan is to use another transfer quarterback this season is enough to give anyone flashbacks.

The play of Slovis should not correlate to what is thought of Jurkovec, because these are two totally different scenarios. There was a fair amount of buzz on Slovis last year at this time and the two share a similar profile: power-five quarterback with past success, but also needed a fresh start to resurrect their career.

Jurkovec’s backstory has a little more nuance with his ties to Pitt obviously. I think even knowing that, you still have to remind yourself he is at face level a transfer quarterback, who has dealt with injuries, and hasn’t been overly successful since 2020.

There is also the quiet reminder Pitt has to replace a 1,000-yard running back and a 1,000-yard wide receiver as well. Even with lackluster quarterback play in 2022, Pitt won nine games thanks largely in part to the play of Israel Abanikanda. He led the nation in touchdowns last year, so replacing one of the elite running backs in college football is no easy task. Pitt does feel good about the running game overall with multiple starters returning on the offensive line and Rodney Hammond set to take the lead job, but again Abanikanda was really good last season.

The receivers have been a major concern all offseason, though they are generating some solid feedback during camp. It’s still a thin unit overall and may be dependent upon some true freshmen to get through the season.

We talk about Pitt’s defense almost being a sure thing these days, but what if it’s not the case this year? Calijah Kancey type players do not come around very often. The group looks solid overall, but are they lacking impact defenders? It’s possible.

Pitt’s schedule does not look overly daunting, but with some new names taking on larger roles you wonder how they will respond to those early non-conference games under the lights against Cincinnati and West Virginia. Those teams, even though they might be down a bit overall, will still try to challenge Pitt’s new starting safeties until they prove they can stop them.

I think after laying all that out, the reasons to be concerned about Pitt are pretty simple. This could just be an ordinary team this, plain and simple. Pitt lost a lot of talent and they might need a year or two to reload. They seem to have a lot of reliable, program-type guys up and down the roster, but do they have enough ‘difference makers’ to rise out of the middle of the ACC and contend for a conference title?

Pitt has potential for several breakout seasons
I think the two things that will need to happen this season in order for Pitt to be successful is if the team gets the good, healthy version of Phil Jurkovec for starters, but I’ll stop dwelling on him for now.

The other development Pitt needs to have happen is for some of those fringe guys to take that proverbial ‘next step’ as players and become the stars the program lost after last season.

Roster turnover is a huge part of college football, so it’s not like Pitt is dealing with anything new here. Players cycle in and out all of the time, but the key is how you retool your roster is what makes you successful in college football from season to season.

Pitt does not recruit at a top-10 level, so they simply can’t lock and reload with a new four-star player the way some programs can. Pitt needs to have a good eye for talent, strong player development, and sometimes some luck to be successful. This roster features a number of players on the verge of being more than just role guys and the success of this season can de dependent on how many of them actually make that jump.

I think on offense this discussion all starts with Bub Means. He is getting all kinds of praise thrown his way during camp and if he can deliver on that, even a fraction of it, then the offense can really take a big step froward this season. Means is one of the most physically impressive players on the entire roster with a chiseled 6’2” and 215-pound frame. He can run and jump and when he eventually goes through combine drills at the end of his Pitt career, Means will test off the charts, I have no doubt about that.

It is still all about getting that production on the field, though, as he is only coming off of a 27-catch, 401-yard, and two-touchdown season in 2022. Pitt is counting on him to be that main guy for Jurkovec and he will be given every chance to seize that role.

The offense’s success will also be reliant upon Rodney Hammond taking his game from a supporting player, to full-on every-down back. I think he has displayed those type of qualities in the past with 963 career rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns. Hammond may not have that explosive element Abanaikanda possessed, but he can still be an effective back. Pitt’s offensive philosophy certainly likes to feature the run, so Hammond will likely get the touches to put up numbers.

I think Hammond and Means need to be the stars of the offense, but Pitt will likely need improved play from Konata Mumpfield and Gavin Bartholomew also. Mumpfield had 58 catches last season, but they need more yards and touchdowns out of him. Bartholomew became an unexpected surprise to the 2021 offense, but lacked production last season as a sophomore. If he can break that sophomore slump and get more involved, then it will also open up more things offensively because Bartholomew has shown he can be an asset if used properly.

Pitt’s defense also features some breakout candidates. The defensive tackle play should be steady, but Pitt’s top three edge rushers are gone off of last year’s team. Dayon Hayes is the lone player from the 2022 two-deep still around, and the Panthers need the Pittsburgh native to put it together in his fourth year with the program. Hayes has 15 career tackles for loss and eight sacks in 27 games played, so he has some experience, but Pitt’s needs him to be in the range of having around a 10-sack season and he is going to be on the field plenty.

The same way people talk about Means and his physical attributes on offense, you probably get that same sense with the way Bangally Kamara gets discussed on defense. Kamara looks like an NFL player and has all the tools to eventually be one. I think the Pitt coaches want more consistency from him, but he has done some good things on the field of play the past two seasons and he could go possibly from promising young player to an all-conference type of guy.

The secondary faces a daunting task in replacing both starting safeties. Pitt should have a built-in comfort level with its experience at cornerback, but this defense does ask a lot of its safeties and it could take some time to develop into a reliable player back there. Taking that into account, I still feel Javon McIntyre has the ability to sort of break through and be one of those steady Pitt safeties they have been fortunate to have lately.

McIntyre picked off two passes last season and even started one game. He is a little more green then the other breakout candidates, but he is also a player who has generated a fair amount of buzz in both spring ball up through the end of training camp.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Which true freshman will have the biggest impact?
Pitt did not really generate much production from its 2022 recruiting class last season, but there is a different type of energy around the 2023 signees and there is a really belief some of them may be able to see the field this season as true freshmen.

Pitt signed 19 high school recruits in its most recent recruiting class and not all of them will have the benefit of redshirting. There will be some who will be thrown into the fire this year and even a couple more who may be asked to have a significant role.

The wide receiver position is an obvious place to look for an impact freshman and the makeup of this position overall is a big reason why. Outside of Means and Mumpfield and Florida transfer Daejon Reynolds, the wide receivers are made up of six guys who have never played a snap of college football. Pitt has four true freshmen and two redshirts who make up the depth, the numbers guarantee a freshmen seeing the field.

Fortunately for the Panthers, it sounds like the four-man freshmen class is ready for the challenge. Israel Polk and Lamar Seymore both enrolled in the spring and did enough to catch the attention of the coaching staff in that setting. The interesting thing here, however, is that the two summer enrollees: Zion Fowler-El and Kenny Johnson, may be outplaying both of them in training camp.

Pitt has a good chance to hit on multiple wide receivers in this class overall, but may have also lucked into almost all of them being ready to play as true freshmen. Pitt needed a successful after some lean years at wide receiver and this class could be the answer.

The wide receivers are an obvious choice, but we’ve heard about good things from tailback Montravius Lloyd, though he may be a bit buried on the depth chart. Even BJ Williams, an offensive lineman, got a shoutout from Narduzzi earlier this week.

On defense, the three freshmen linebackers are all players who sound like they will eventually be big-time contributors, but the surprise out of the pack may be Braylan Lovelace, who is a real candidate to break into the two-deep depth chart. Lovelace was not a heralded recruit out of nearby Leechburg High School, but he impressed when he arrived early for spring ball. Cruce Brookins, another local product, did not have a high recruiting ranking but is another player who is showing he could make his way onto the field in year one as a safety. Plus the higher-ranked guys like linebacker Jordan Bass and defensive tackle Isaiah Neal look the part and could sneak onto the field.

I think if I had to pick one above the rest, I would say Kenny Johnson is going to be the highest-impact true freshmen for Pitt in 2023. Sometimes you just need to read the tea leaves about the situation and not overthink the prediction.

Narduzzi has referenced Johnson quite a bit in press conferences and even television and podcast interviews. The Pitt social media team has featured several of his highlight reel plays throughout camp as well. I don’t think it’s all a smoke screen, either. Johnson is going to play and play a lot, and they are excited about him, too.

The pedigree is just there for Johnson even without taking the talk out of camp. He was a star high school player in Pennsylvania, MVP of the Big 33 game, and when watching him play, you can see smooth route running and good hands. Johnson could be a starter by the end of the year and I don’t think it would be much of a surprise at this point.

How will the ACC shake out this season?
The perception of the ACC has long been Clemson…a gap, then Florida State, and then the rest of the league. Whether that has always been met in reality on the field of play is a different discussion, but heading into the 2023 season, the preseason polls have mirrored that line thinking.

Clemson was picked first in the media poll with 103 first place votes, followed by Florida State with 67 votes, then the rest of the league followed with a total of six first place votes. Observing other season previews throughout the summer, it has generally been those two programs at the top and a different order among the remaining 12 teams.

I can understand the love for Clemson because they have owned this league for a long time, Dabo Swinney is a great coach, and they recruit at an unbelievably high level. The Tigers are my pick to win the league as well.

I think everything else is up for interpretation.

Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Virginia Tech all seem like obvious candidates to be the bottom four teams in the league. I think Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, and Wake Forest can all be bowl eligible teams, but not sure if they will be much more than that.

I think the league really comes down to Clemson at the top and five teams who will be chasing to be them all season long trying to get into the first ACC Championship game without a two-division format.

Pitt is in that group of teams who can contend for a league title. I believe they will be joined by Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, and Duke as a sleeper. I can’t really see anyone outside of these six programs winning the league this year.

Florida State deserves to have some preseason love with a quarterback like Jordan Travis, coming off a 10-win season, and a top ten finish. That all makes sense, but I still think the Seminoles have a lot to prove because Mike Norvell was 8-13 in his first two seasons and while there is a proud history with the program, they have been rather ordinary since Jimbo Fisher left.

North Carolina recruits like crazy and they have the best player in the conference in quarterback Drake Maye. I wonder if he has the supporting cast he had last year, but when you have a first round pick playing quarterback you’re going to be in the race.

NC State can be thought of a lot like Pitt. They’ve had a fair talent pass through the program lately with a veteran head coach, but Dave Doeren just hasn’t had the breakthrough season like Pitt had in 2021. Duke seems too trendy of a pick and probably not really a contender to actually win the league, but I do think Riley Leonard is actually a fun quarterback and they’ll be a threat to some top teams if nothing else.

Then there’s Pitt.

The Panthers are the only program to win the ACC outside of Clemson in the past eight years. Pitt was picked to finish sixth in the league at media day, but nearly every year under Narduzzi they have outplayed their projected finish, which is something to keep in mind.

Here are my initial ACC power rankings before the season starts:

1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. Pitt
5. NC State
6. Duke
7. Miami
8. Louisville
9. Syracuse
10. Wake Forest
11. Georgia Tech
12. Virginia Tech
13. Boston College
14. Virginia

One Prediction

Pitt goes 9-3 this season
The Pitt football program has been predictably unpredictable through the years. The Panthers have also played the last ten seasons as a member of the ACC Coastal, a division known for its parity and chaos.

It has not always been easy to pick how the Panthers will finish, but through the years I have had some luck in doing just that. I had Pitt’s record down to the exact win/loss results in 2019, I believe, so I’ll give it another shot.

I will admit, I am buying into the notion Pitt’s defense will have staying power for another season. They kind of do what they do and even with the losses to Kancey, Dennis, and company, I think that unit will continue to give Pitt a chance to be in mostly every game with the way they can get after the quarterback and force turnovers.

I am skeptical of the offense, but might be buying into the hype to a degree. The passing game really has no excuse not to be better this season and it should play out that way. Pitt has quarterback with knowledge of the scheme and is healthy. They must have enough playmakers around him for the noise coming out of camp, too.

I think Pitt’s floor this season is probably a 7-5 type of team that finishes in the middle of the ACC. Narduzzi has done enough during his tenure to at least expect that as the floor. In his first seven non-COVID seasons with Pitt, the Panthers have been better than 7-5 in the regular season four times, tied that mark twice, and fell below it only once.

The ceiling is potentially higher. If a few things kick Pitt’s way, there is a scenario where they could be playing Clemson in the ACC title game in the first weekend of December. Pitt has the tools to be a top-four team in this league. The Panthers have experience, recent success, and a somewhat favorable schedule.

Here is my Pitt season prediction:

Wofford - Win
Cincinnati - Win
@West Virginia - Win
North Carolina - Loss
@Virginia Tech - Win
Louisville - Win
@Wake Forest - Win
@Notre Dame - Win
Florida State - Loss
Syracuse (NYC) - Win
Boston College - Win
@Duke - Loss

I think the bold prediction here is the 4-0 non-conference finish, something which has never happened for this program. The South Bend trip in October could loom large, but I think that could be Pitt’s big win this year.

I do think Pitt is a better team than Duke, I had to pick a third loss because I don’t quite see this as a 10-2 football team.