The 3-2-1 Column: Previewing Cincinnati, Jurkovec thoughts, and more

Pitt opened the 2023 football season with a comfortable 45-7 win over Wofford last weekend. The Panthers opened the first play of the game with a sack of the Terriers’ quarterback and from that moment on you could tell the game was never going to be close.

That win over Wofford was all well and good, but hardly unexpected either. The schedule will pick up for Pat Narduzzi’s team and it does almost immediately. Pitt is set to host Cincinnati on Saturday for a 6:30 kickoff at Acrisure Stadium. Cincinnati is a program in transition as they start play in a new league with a new coach, but the Bearcats also made the College Football Playoffs two seasons ago, so this weekend’s game is certainly a step up from what Pitt faced against Wofford.

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we put a wrap on the season opener for Pitt and look ahead to tomorrow's showdown against Cincinnati.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Pitt dominated Wofford, like we expected
The game against Wofford went about how most expected it to go last weekend. It was hard to envision Pat Narduzzi having his team take a bunch of deep shots to try to win 84-0, but a workmanlike 45-7 victory where his team controlled the line of scrimmage?

Yea, that’s more of his style.

Pitt flexed its muscles throughout the game to be sure, but there was still some areas of the team that were held back and others where the opponent did not really test them how you would like to see. I think that’s the two-edged sword with opening the season against an opponent like Wofford. Sure this type of game gives you the ability to work out some kinks and all of that, but at the same time these type of games do not tell you much about your own team at all because of the significant talent gap. For instance, were Pitt’s two new starting safeties even thrown at on Saturday? I’m not sure they were genuinely tested at all, so that question about this team persists for another week.

I still thought there were some good things to take from the game, however. Pitt was able to get a lot of players involved as two quarterbacks played, eight players got to carry the ball, 13 more made receptions, and 20 players recorded a tackle. The game against Wofford allowed for Pitt to give some younger guys valuable game experience if nothing else.

Phil Jurkovec’s day started a little slow before he got things rolling. I thought it was encouraging to see that he will be able to spread the ball around to different receivers. Bub Means and Gavin Bartholomew, in limited opportunities, both looked like players who will be assets in the passing game, and the Pitt ground attack went over 200 yards.

Defensively, the offseason hype around Deandre Jules seemed warranted after he started the game with two plays in the Wofford backfield. Dayon Hayes and Bangally Kamara, two players Pitt is really counting on this season, both recorded sacks and made some other plays as well.

Those were all encouraging things to see.

Conversely, it was hard to come away with that game with any obvious negative perceptions, because Pitt won by 38 points and out-gained the opponent 491-126. I will say that the game did not answer every question about the team. The offensive line, already down a starter, will be tested more this week. The secondary will feel that same pressure with those young safeties.

I get why Pitt plays these FCS games and it’s simple: because everyone else does, too. Once Alabama stops playing Chattanooga and Ohio State takes Youngstown State off the schedule, than Pitt should do the same, but until then we’re going to see these type of games for the Panthers.

There is not much excitement to the games against FCS teams, but some football is better than no football, right?

Cincinnati presents a much more difficult challenge
The Cincinnati Bearcats, also fresh off a lopsided win over an outmatched FCS opponent, enter this game with a 1-0 record. Cincinnati had become a very consistent program under Luke Fickell, but he accepted the job at Wisconsin and it was just one of many changes this offseason for the program.

Cincinnati is now a member of the Big 12 conference, and if I have this right, I believe it goes: Conference USA to Big East to AAC to Big 12 all in a twenty year period. This is a program used to change.

Cincinnati’s new head coach is Scott Satterfield and if that name sounds familiar, it’s because he just wrapped up a four-year stint as Louisville’s head coach. Satterfield’s tenure with the Cardinals netted a 25-24 overall record and admittedly it was kind of a surprising move when Cincinnati hired him, but he was once a hot commodity in the coaching ranks. Satterfield won the Sun Belt three years in a row with Appalachian State from 2016-2018 before heading to Louisville, so the hope he can return to that level of success with the Bearcats.

Pitt played Louisville last year and lost 24-10, thanks largely to a four-turnover game by the Panthers. Pitt out-gained Louisville in that game, but faltered in the red zone multiple times. Because of that, Pitt should feel some level of confidence going up against a Satterfield-led offense and that has been part of the discussion this week. Pat Narduzzi and linebackers coach Ryan Manalac, along with some Pitt players, all cited seeing similarities in what Cincinnati did in week one and what they saw from Louisville a season ago.

Cincinnati has had a lot of success in recent years, but this year's offense is made up almost entirely of new starters and transfers. The most notable name is quarterback Emory Jones, who was once a starter at Florida and played last season for Arizona State before arriving in Cincinnati. Jones accounted for seven touchdowns last week and he has drawn some comparisons to former Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham, who Pitt faced twice in the past three seasons. Pitt split those Louisville games with Satterfield and Cunningham, but the Panthers' defense made life hard on the ex-Louisville quarterback sacking him eight times, intercepting him four times, and he averaged just 115 yards of passing in those two meetings.

Jones has had an up and down career going from a backup for three years before winning the starting job in 2021 with the Gators. He threw for 2,734 yards and 19 touchdowns and had some success on the ground, but also mixed in 13 interceptions that season, which likely played a role in a transfer to Arizona State. Jones did not hold the starting job for a full season with the Sun Devils and now after five years, he finds himself at Cincinnati for one last shot.

Corey Kiner, an LSU transfer, looks to be the team’s top running back while Xzavier Henderson, another transfer from Florida, is the team’s top weapon at receiver. Henderson caught seven passes for 149 yards and a touchdown in his Cincinnati debut last week.

The defense still has Fickell’s fingerprints all over it, which will make for a tough challenge. It starts with one of the best defensive lines Pitt will see all year. The headliner of the group is Donate Corleone, the team’s nose tackle, who was an All-American last year. He is a force to be reckoned with in the middle, and the 6-2 and 318-pound sophomore is appropriately nicknamed ‘The Godfather.’

The Bearcats are just two years removed from a 13-1 season in which they made a run to the College Football Playoffs, but now with a new coach, conference, and personnel, it's hard to get a read where this program really is after only one game.

Jurkovec played well, but needs to keep growing
The talk all offseason about the 2023 Pitt football team was centered around quarterback Phil Jurkovec. It is the most natural place to start for any football team given the importance of the position, but especially for this program after the way the past two years played out on the field.

The play of Kenny Pickett in 2021 will cast a shadow over Pitt football for a long time because it was easily one of the best individual seasons in program history. The follow up to that campaign in 2022 was certainly a let down on many levels. Kedon Slovis was brought it to be a replacement to keep things rolling, but his play on the field left a lot to be desired. Pitt still managed nine wins and achieve a top 25 finish, but there was a feeling the program left some winnable games on the table due to its lack of a passing game.

The addition of Jurkovec is interesting, because while he was once a top recruit from right in Pitt’s backyard, his play over the last two seasons at Boston College was marred by injuries and inconsistency. Much like his Saturday counterpart Emory Jones, Jurkovec himself is a reclamation project.

He seems like a fit playing for Frank Cignetti Jr’s offense, but there has been a guarded approach to the expectations for the Panthers’ new quarterback, even if he was teaming up with a coach who led him to success back in 2020.

Jurkovec went out in week one and led his team to a 38-point win. He spread the ball around to nine different receivers, guided the team on six consecutive scoring drives, and even flashed his mobility with a nice 23-yard touchdown run. Jurkovec’s performance was solid, but maybe nothing overwhelming and of course it has even been met with some skepticism.

Pitt’s opening drive was a little shaky, Jurkovec skipped on some throws throughout the game, and overall he just looked rusty. His last live game action was in October of last year, and it showed. However, as the game wore on, it looked to me like he was playing with more confidence.

I think there are plenty of reasons to look at that week one performance with some encouragement. He played well after that that opening drive, hit on some nice throws across the middle, and extended plays with his legs. Also in fairness to Jurkovec, the game plan itself looked pretty bland. Pitt’s best playmakers this season are likely going to be Rodney Hammond, Bub Means, Konata Mumpfield, and Gavin Bartholomew, who combined for 13 touches overall, which will likely be the lowest number for that quartet all season long.

Once Pitt starts to open up the offense more and lets the playmakers be playmakers, it should only benefit Jurkovec and Pitt’s offensive production as a whole. There was probably a sense they didn’t need to show everything against Wofford, and my assumption is that they did not.

I still think it is fair to wonder about Jurkovec’s ceiling and how he will hold up throughout this campaign after not playing a full season in two years. It will be a game by game approach in evaluating him and Saturday will present some challenges. Cincinnati's defensive front will be a much bigger test and Pitt's success will largely depend on how the quarterback handles the pressure.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What did we learn about the ACC after one week?
The talk around the ACC lately has been more about conference expansion (or potential departures…), but over the weekend football was finally played, and put those discussions on the back burner for now.

So what did we learn about the ACC as a whole?

I thought the league equated itself very well, even if the national media has largely ignored it. The ACC had prime-time windows on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and those games did teach us a few things and made a statement for the league in the process.

Two of the teams expected to be near the top of the league, North Carolina and Florida State, both scored non-conference victories over SEC opponents on national TV in neutral site games. North Carolina looked impressive in a win over South Carolina with Drake Maye and a revamped defense leading the charge, then Florida State smacked No. 5 LSU by three touchdowns a day later.

It would be hard to say that those two teams aren’t the favorites right now, especially after what transpired Monday in Durham, North Carolina. The Clemson dynasty has felt slightly off the past two seasons, and the ninth-ranked Tigers didn’t really dispel that notion with a 28-7 loss to Duke. I think that score was misleading in some regards because Clemson’s defense played alright, but the offense was atrocious in the red zone. The Tigers won’t go away quietly, but the preseason top-10 distinction was certainly overrating them. On the other hand, Duke certainly is a team that was expected to be tough and quarterback Riley Leonard did enough to show why people felt that way. The Blue Devils will be a tough out all season long, too.

I think the general feeling was that Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Virginia would be towards the bottom and they all lived up to that with a loss in week one. Does that mean it’s Florida State and North Carolina at the top, those three at the bottom, and everyone else in between? For now, I think so.

There is not enough evidence to suggest otherwise, but this weekend should provide even more clarity.

The three ACC games worth watching this weekend are Texas A&M at Miami, Notre Dame at NC State, and of course Cincinnati at Pitt. I also at least have my eye on what Wake Forest does with Vanderbilt and maybe even Virginia Tech hosting Purdue as well.

As it stands today, the league has four ranked teams, with two of those programs both holding impressive non-conference victories in week one, which strengthens the perception of the league. It’s a long season and a lot of football still needs to be played, but with the way the ACC has been for the past decade, when Clemson off starts the year with a 21-point loss, it certainly feels more wide open than it has been.

Who needs to step up on Saturday?
There are certain areas in every football game that will be deciding factors and Pitt's game with Cincinnati has a few that stick out to me on the surface. I think Pitt will beat Cincinnati on Saturday if they can slow down the Bearcats in two separate areas, which will call for certain players in particular to step up on Saturday, perhaps more than what they were called to do in week one against Wofford.

The big thing that jumps out to me for the Pitt defense is limiting explosive plays. Cincinnati had nine plays travel 25 yards or more in its opener against Eastern Kentucky, with four of those splash plays resulting in touchdowns. Pitt’s defense is generally geared towards stopping the run, so it kind of goes without saying the front seven will need to lock down the run and also keep Emory Jones contained, but the passing plays could be a different story.

We have talked all offseason about how important the safety play will be for Pitt this season after the team lost its two starters off of last year’s team. Javon McIntyre and PJ O’Brien both got to start in week one, but were largely untested by Wofford’s lack of a passing game.

The pair has played meaningful snaps before, and McIntyre even started a game last season, but this should be their first test where they are collectively on their own without someone like Erick Hallett keeping tabs on them. It remains to be seen how explosive Cincinnati really is as a team because the first game could be misleading, but I am guessing Satterfield and Jones will at least try to test these guys when they can. Pitt has veteran cornerbacks, they should be able to rush the passer, but the key to this game for me will ultimately come down to how these two perform when the lights are on Saturday night.

On the other side of the ball, it really comes down to the offensive line. Jurkovec playing well is obviously a huge key, but that kind of goes without saying at this point. The line will be tested because if there is one obvious strength Cincinnati has, it is their defensive front.

Corleone was PFF’s highest-graded defensive player in the country last season, for however much stock you want to put into those metrics, but he is quite good by traditional measures as well and he has a professional future. He is flanked by Jowon Briggs, a former four-star recruit and All-AAC performer last year and Eric Phillips a 12-game starter from last season.

The three-man front Cincinnati employs is also going to throw a wrench into the mix. It is less common at the college level and it forces the offensive to prepare and scheme differently for this game than they might for the rest of the season. It's not quite like defending the triple-option, but it's probably the closest equivalent for offensive linemen.

Pitt is also already down a starting linemen with Ryan Jacoby out for the year, and because of that I think you can expect Cincinnati to try to scheme up some stunts and blitzes to attack first-year starter Jason Collier.

Pitt has the edge in a lot of areas in this particular matchup with Cincinnati, but there are some obvious areas where the Bearcats can try to exploit Pitt, and how well Narduzzi and his staff adjusts to those will be a big factor in the outcome.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt moves to 2-0 on Saturday
The first week of college football usually leads to overreactions and bold proclamations, but what we thought going into the season should not have been affected all that much by what happened last weekend. I always felt like Pitt would beat Cincinnati, and I have no reason to change that pick now.

Cincinnati certainly looked the part against Eastern Kentucky, there's no denying that. The Bearcats currently rank top five nationally in nearly all major offensive categories, but isn’t that what they were expected to do? Nothing about the Bearcats’ week one performance makes me think they have been severely underrated this offseason. They still have a first-year head coach, an offense filled with transfers, and they are still a team that was picked at the bottom of the Big 12.

It works both ways, I get that. The Panthers handled business against an overmatched FCS team, but they still have question marks that were not exactly answered against Wofford. The 38-point victory did not make me think Pitt is going to be any better or worse than what I thought of them a week ago at this time. In many respects, tomorrow is actually the first game of the season.

The line opened on Sunday with Pitt being 7-point favorites. I like Pitt to cover that and I'll say Pitt wins 31-21. Pitt has the better team on paper. They have the established coach, a roster with far more continuity, and the game is being played in Pittsburgh.

I know in college football rivalry games, everything can be thrown out the window, but this is not a rivalry. It's just a mere non-conference game between two teams that happened to play in the same league a decade ago.

RIP Paddlewheel Trophy.