In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about what it takes to "win" the portal, the latest from the offensive coordinator search and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The three elements of the portal
There are three pieces of the puzzle when it comes to the transfer portal and how coaches navigate it:
- Who you lost
- Who you didn’t lose
- Who you added
I probably don’t need to elaborate on those, but I’m going to anyway.
The first part is the part that stings, although we can break that into a couple sub-groups (or subdivisions, if you’re either the NCAA or a big Rush fan). Because not every player who leaves is a loss, necessarily. A lot of players, maybe the majority, go into the portal looking for more playing time or a better opportunity or a level that fits their ability.
This covers quite a few and maybe even most of the players who have left Pitt for the portal this month. Guys like Aydin Henningham and Addison Copeland and Stephon Hall all wanted to play more than they were at Pitt, so they moved on to find a better chance (which will probably be at a lower level, which is fine; players should be able to do that if they think they’ll play more there).
Then there are players who enter the portal despite their team really hoping they would return. These are the guys we’re really talking about when we talk about portal losses. Jordan Addison fell into that category two years ago, of course. I’m not sure anybody really did last year. But so far this year, there are two obvious ones: DeAndre Jules and Samuel Okunlola. Both players would have been starters and primary contributors on the defensive line, where the depth would have been thin even with Jules and Okunlola back, and it’s even more so now that they’re gone.
So there are two types of players you lose, and we’ve seen Pitt on both sides of it. The next piece of the portal puzzle is retention - or, put another way, the players you don’t lose. And we’ve seen a bunch of them with Pitt, too. Guys like Gavin Bartholomew, Rodney Hammond, Dayon Hayes, Branson Taylor, Ryan Baer and Solomon DeShields have all announced that they’re returning.
To me, you don’t announce the status quo unless there was a chance the status quo would change. Which tells me that those guys were considering the portal.
The fact that they didn’t go into the portal was a win for Pitt.
And then there’s acquisitions. That’s the part everybody focuses on the most, and while it’s just as important to keep your good players (retention) as it is to bring in new players (acquisition), getting those extra pieces to fill out the roster is certainly a highlight of the portal.
Really, what the portal does for a coaching staff is allow them to add some key guys in key spots. For all the talk of free agency and players jumping from school to school, what we’re really talking about is a unique opportunity to address a specific deficiency.
Got a hole in the lineup caused by a confluence of misses in recruiting and unexpected early departures? Go get a guy who can fill in for a year or two. Need an upgrade at a spot? Go get a guy.
Plus, you can bring in younger transfers who serve another useful purpose: since they’ve already transferred, they can’t transfer again without sitting out, so you’ve actually kind of got them on the roster for a few years. You won’t be able to build an entire roster of those kinds of transfers, but you can get a decent number each year to build some roster stability.
Those are the three areas that are affected by the portal, and I think it’s important to lay those out so we’re all on the same page.
Evaluating the portal
We need to understand all three of those areas so we can do this next thing:
Evaluate the portal.
More to the point, evaluate how Pitt handles the portal. Because it really does take all three areas - losses, retention and acquisition - to put a complete grade on what a team does in the portal each year.
It’s not just about who you add. It’s also about who you lose - and who you don’t lose. All three are relevant to the team’s immediate future, and they’re all part of the dance each team dances with the portal.
For example, Pitt lost 12 scholarship players to the portal last offseason:
Kedon Slovis, Vincent Davis, Jaden Bradley, Jaylon Barden, Gavin Thomson, Myles Alston, Kyi Wright, John Morgan, Sam Williams, Khalil Anderson, Judson Tallandier and Sam Vander Haar
Conversely, the Panthers added six players from the portal:
Phil Jurkovec, Christian Veilleux, Daejon Reynolds, Derrick Davis, Donovan McMillon and Malcolm Epps
Okay, there are some not-so-good additions in there - guys who either contributed nothing or played poorly - but there are some good ones, too. Daejon Reynolds was a solid receiver for Pitt, and Donovan McMillon was the Panthers’ leading tackler - the first Pitt player to post 100+ tackles since 2015. That’s pretty good.
And when you stack it against the players Pitt lost, it seems like the Panthers came out on the winning end. Kedon Slovis looked like a loss at one point this season, but that might have only been due to the really, really poor play Pitt was getting out of its quarterbacks. Vincent Davis had a good season in 2023, but the Panthers’ running backs were fine. The four receivers who left didn’t do anything, and Kyi Wright was a rotational piece on offense for James Madison.
John Morgan probably could have helped Pitt’s defensive ends; he didn’t produce much this season - or during his five years at Pitt - but the Panthers’ ends were really unproductive, so every little bit would have helped.
Khalil Anderson has a bright future at East Tennessee, but it’s debatable whether he would have cracked the rotation this year.
Either way, I think Pitt ended up a net +2 with the portal this past season, at least in terms of departures and additions (maybe +1 if you want to put Morgan as a big loss). And in terms of retention, I think the Panthers kept a good group.
That last part - the retention - has been tougher to evaluate, because you never really know who was close to leaving, or at least considering it. This year, we’ve got a little more insight, because those guys we mentioned earlier have announced that they’re returning, so we can count six starters who were apparently looking at the portal as an option.
By contrast, so far I think Pitt has two big losses to the portal: defensive end Samuel Okunlola and defensive tackle DeAndre Jules.
At this point, then, we’re looking at a 6-2 advantage in retention vs. attrition, or a net +4. That’s pretty good, and I would say Pitt has come out ahead in the early stages of this offseason’s portal activity.
So far, I think the staff has done a solid job, but my real point here is this:
You can’t really judge a staff’s performance with the portal until you have all three pieces to consider.
The biggest needs
So, if there are three big areas that you need to consider in order to evaluate a staff’s work in the portal, let’s talk about the third one.
The acquisitions.
More specifically, let’s talk about what positions Pitt needs to address in the portal this offseason, because to me, there are a few big ones.
Chief among those is the defensive line. The whole thing, from one end to the other and everywhere in between.
Okay, fine. Dayon Hayes is coming back; that covers one defensive end position. But you need depth, too, so even that spot isn’t totally settled and the point remains:
Pitt needs defensive line help in a big way.
At end, the Panthers have Hayes returning. Beyond him, they have Bam Brima, Nahki Johnson, Jimmy Scott, Antonio Camon and Maverick Gracio, as well as a couple of freshmen. Hayes had a lot of pressures in 2023 but didn’t finish for many sacks; the rest of the group didn’t produce much at all. Even if the coaches are optimistic about Scott - and he looked promising this season - they still need quite a bit more.
And they need even more than that at defensive tackle. We know that Devin Danielson, Tyler Bentley and David Green are gone, and even if those guys didn’t produce a whole lot, they were still experienced players, and their departures leave some big holes. Throw in the transfer of DeAndre Jules, and the numbers are now perilously low.
Like, they have three guys left. Elliot Donald, Sean FitzSimmons and Isaiah Neal. That’s it. That’s all the scholarship players who are still on the roster at defensive tackle.
Fortunately, two of Pitt’s four-star recruits in the 2024 class are tackles - Francis Brewu and Jahsear Whittington - but if Neal couldn’t get on the field for more than one snap this past season, I’m not sure we should sit here and count on Brewu and Whittington.
That means transfers. And probably several of them.
Cornerback is another spot we’ve talked about a lot as needing some help from the portal. Pitt has some numbers there - Rashad Battle, Jahvante Royal, Tamarion Crumpley, Noah Biglow, Ryland Gandy and Shadarian Harrison - but not a lot in the way of experience. I suppose the coaches could roll with the guys they have; after all, they’ve built a reputation for recruiting defensive backs, so maybe they just fully commit to those guys and build a rotation from there.
I’m guessing they’ll try to get at least one corner from the portal, and possibly more.
To me, those are the three priorities: defensive tackle, defensive end and cornerback. That’s where I think the Pitt coaches need to focus their efforts with the portal.
Of course, we’ve seen offers to other positions. Close to 10 transfer receivers have claimed offers, and I think somewhere around a half-dozen offensive linemen have, too. Even a couple linebackers, which I think is a position where Pitt is pretty solid.
I think all of those offers - receiver, offensive line, etc. - are kind of luxury targets. You might feel pretty good about your roster at those positions, but you can always upgrade and get better, so if you see a guy that you think can help, either as a starter or for depth, then you take a shot.
But there’s one other position I think the staff will prioritize, and it may or may not come as a surprise.
Quarterback.
The question has been asked a lot (by me on the Morning Pitt at least a few times), and I think the answer is yes, Pitt will look to add a quarterback from the portal.
Don’t let the past failures with portal quarterbacks sour you on the whole process. There’s a way to get it right, and just because it hasn’t worked in the past doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try again.
I think Pat Narduzzi and his staff intend to try again. Christian Veilleux obviously had his struggles, and while Nate Yarnell looked pretty solid in his two starts at the end of the 2023 season, I can’t fault the coaches for wanting to upgrade.
I think they’ll look to do so.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Is the OC search taking too long?
We could dive headlong into a discussion of the offensive coordinator search by asking who Pat Narduzzi should hire or who Pat Narduzzi will hire or if Pat Narduzzi will ever hire someone, but instead, we’ll talk timeline.
Most of the stuff about candidates is on the message board anyway, so you should go check that out to get the latest on that front. In this space, we’ll talk timeline.
Because it looks like the timeline is still extending.
Look, from the start, I said I thought this hire needed to be quicker than Narduzzi’s previous offensive coordinator hires, which have often extended into January.
By that standard, the hire will be quicker. Pitt’s not preparing for a bowl game, after all, so we’ll see a hire made before January. We’ll even see it made before Signing Day on Dec. 20. I’m pretty confident of that. That means Narduzzi is ahead of the game, right?
Eh, getting a hire done before Dec. 20 doesn’t necessarily mean the process has happened on a shorter timeline.
Narduzzi fired Frank Cignetti on Nov. 26, the day after the season-ending loss to Duke. There was no hesitation there, and Narduzzi jumped right into it.
But Nov. 26 was like 13 days ago. 13 days doesn’t sound like a long time, but when you place it in context of where we are in the bigger calendar, it does seem to be a bit extended. Because now, as it looks like this search will head into its third week, things are starting to feel a bit dragged out.
To some extent, there’s no rush. Pitt already has a quarterback in the 2024 recruiting class and the offensive skill guys in the class seem to be pretty solid; you probably aren’t in danger of losing them due to a delay with hiring a coordinator.
Similarly, I think the staff is prepared to move on a transfer quarterback, even without an offensive coordinator, so that’s not creating a delay.
(On that topic, I know a lot of Pitt fans believe that the new coordinator should get to pick a transfer quarterback, or at least have input on who they target, but I would counter by pointing out that the last coordinator went 10-5 with quarterbacks he didn’t pick and 2-8 with quarterbacks he did select, so maybe it’s not all that important.)
Either way, I don’t think the delay in hiring a coordinator is creating a lot of delay on either the recruiting front or the transfer front, so there aren’t any issues there.
At the same time, though, I can’t help but think there might be some players on the current team who are waiting to see what the new offense looks like before deciding if they will return to Pitt or look for a new opportunity in the portal. This delay is not helping with that process, and even if it’s only a few guys who fall into that category, there’s still no reason to risk that if you can help it.
Ultimately, I get it: this is the most important hire of Narduzzi’s career. He absolutely has to get it right. So if it takes a little extra time to get it right, then so be it.
But the decision to fire Cignetti didn’t just dawn on Narduzzi on the plane ride home from Durham. He had to have known that he was going to make that move. We previously said in this column and elsewhere that if Narduzzi knew at midseason that he was going to do it, then he might as well have just gone ahead and did it. Midseason firings are not entirely uncommon, and if they give you a leg up on the search, then it’s worth it.
Overall, I’m not too worried about the timeline here. I don’t think Narduzzi is missing out on top targets by taking his time. And I understand that there’s more going on than just the coordinator search; Narduzzi has been on the road a lot recruiting. Plus, like I said before, this hire is crucial, so if Narduzzi feels like he needs this time to get it right, then so be it.
But I did think it would happen a little bit quicker than it has.
Can you do that every night?
“That’s who we are.”
That was the quote Jim chose for the headline of Jeff Capel’s postgame press conference after Pitt beat West Virginia on Wednesday night in Morgantown, and it seems to sum it up pretty good:
That’s who the Panthers are. They’re a team that will fire as many three-point shots and long two-point jumpers as possible, and if they’re cooking, it’s going to be a fun night.
They know it and we know it.
On Wednesday night, we saw that approach at its best. Blake Hinson was unconscious in his shooting. Bub Carrington had his best game possibly since the first four games of the season. Guillermo Diaz Graham was lights-out.
Whether it was spot-up three’s, pull-up jumpers or turnaround fades, Pitt was willing to let it fly from all over the place.
Are shots like that pretty sick? For sure. Fun to watch? Absolutely. Sustainable? That’s a different question, and I’m not sure the answer is quite as promising for the future.
I just don’t know if you can make a living like that. Pitt scored 80 points against West Virginia. Six of those came from the free throw line. Of the other 74, 48 were scored from outside the arc.
Of the 26 points Pitt got from two-point shots, 20 were scored in the paint.
I just don’t know if getting 75% of your points outside the paint is sustainable on a night-to-night basis.
Those are low-percentage shots on most nights, and while the nights when those shots are falling can be really exciting, the nights when they’re not end up with a lot of empty possessions.
And empty possessions against teams with a bit more offensive firepower than West Virginia end up as losses.
I still really want to see Carrington be more aggressive in going to the hoop. He is hovering around 11 or 12% of his field goal attempts coming at the rim; I think he’s explosive enough to get to the basket the way Ishmael Leggett did in the second half on Wednesday night. Maybe Pitt just needs to run more plays to get Carrington those kinds of lanes and looks, but I just don’t know if the Panthers can rely on him making all of those fadeaway jumpers every night. He missed a lot of them in the three games Pitt lost this season, and it seems like less than a 50/50 proposition on most nights.
So can it be sustained? Can they win firing away like they did against West Virginia? I don’t know. Even in that game, the real separation started to come with a series of drives to the basket, and it feels like maybe the staff made a pointed move in that direction.
Which would be a good thing, because they’ll likely need to keep working that way.
And if this team can develop a penetration game to go with the shooting from outside, then they just might have something here.
ONE PREDICTION
The super seniors
Dayon Hayes announced this week that he’s coming back to Pitt for one more year, so that got me to thinking about the super seniors - or potential super seniors - on the roster.
The Panthers had 13 players on the 2023 roster who can come back for an extra year as so-called super seniors. Those are the guys who were on the roster during the Covid year of 2020 and got an extra year of eligibility from the NCAA as a result of it.
Here are those 13:
Bam Brima
Daniel Carter
Jason Collier
M.J. Devonshire
Brandon George
Matt Goncalves
Dayon Hayes
Ryan Jacoby
Karter Johnson
DeAndre Jules
Bangally Kamara|
Bub Means
Nate Temple
Of those 13, Johnson, Collier and Hayes have already said they’re returning, while Means and Goncalves declared for the NFL Draft and Temple, Jules, George and Kamara have announced that they’ll enter the transfer portal.
That leaves four guys: Carter, Jacoby, Brima and Devonshire.
If I had to guess - since this is the prediction section of the column - I think Carter, Jacoby and Brima come back and Devonshire goes to the NFL. It’s interesting to me that Devonshire hasn’t announced that move yet; I suppose everybody moves on their own timeline, and we’ll see what ends up happening there.
If that’s how it plays out, Pitt will have six super seniors on the roster in 2024 (although that number could go with some transfers coming in). This past season, the Panthers had nine, which included a pair of new transfers in Phil Jurkovec and Malcolm Epps.
That trend of diminishing numbers of super seniors will likely continue. If everybody currently on the roster stays on the roster - again, barring any transfer additions - there will be six players who will have the option to return as super seniors in 2025.
And after that, the trend will be over. The extra year of eligibility applies to players who were on a roster in 2020; that means anybody who came in after the 2020 recruiting class isn’t eligible for it. So once the last remnants of the 2020 class cycle off the roster - guys like Solomon DeShields and Branson Taylor and Ben Sauls - we’ll be fully past the era of super seniors.
There were ups and downs to that extra year of eligibility, to be sure, but on the whole, I think coaches are ready to move on and get back to “regular” eligibility standards.
