The Pitt football team stopped a four-game losing streak with an impressive 38-21 victory over an undefeated Louisville team last week. The win improved Pitt’s record to 2-4 at the halfway point of the 2023 campaign, a fry cry where the season was expected to be at this point. Pitt can’t change the past now, and the team has six more games to attempt the finish the season strong.

The upset win over Louisville was sparked in part by a quarterback change, a strong defensive performance, and above all else, showing some pride as a beaten down football team. In this week’s 3-2-1 column, we break down everything we can from that Louisville game and what it means for the team heading into tomorrow’s game with Wake Forest.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Christian Veilleux makes the rest of the season intriguing

Christian Veilleux made his long-awaited starting debut in a Pitt uniform last Saturday against Louisville. The sophomore had modest production: 12-of-26 for 200 yards and two touchdowns. It was nothing to write home about on a individual level, but it was good enough to win the game for Pitt. He provided something that the team was missing, whatever that was.

All along many suspected if this Pitt team had received just average quarterback play in some of its prior losses, than it may have been enough to swing some results. Former starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec struggled so much to the point Pitt only scored four offensive touchdowns over its past three games. Veilleux led four scoring drives on Saturday alone.

It was far from a perfect performance for the sophomore. The offense still struggled with only 288 yards, 13 first downs, and a 3-of-14 clip on third downs. Pitt did not turn the ball over, however, and Veilleux executed enough to make it work.

Despite the poor stat line, I think there was a lot of encouraging signs from his performance. After starting 0-5 on Saturday, he came through with one of his best throws on a 46-yard bomb to Bub Means. Veilleux stood in the pocket, let the play develop, and delivered a good throws while taking a hit. You could kind of tell in his body language, once he made that play there was a little more confidence in his game.

I thought there were some other good throws, too. He stepped up and hit Bartholomew in the second quarter for a 24-yard gain. There was a back shoulder to Kenny Johnson down the sideline for 34 yards as well, and perhaps his best throw of the day was his last, a 31-yard touchdown to Konata Mumpfield on a perfectly placed ball, to make it 38-21.

Ultimately, I may take the stat line with a grain of salt because in those 12 completions, he showed some promise. Veilleux did just enough for Pitt to win the game, but in that performance he also showed why there could be some optimism around his future. He made some big time throws and showed he has a pretty good arm and you would hope some of those errant throws were chalked up to first game jitters and he could take steps forward with more playing time.

Veilleux had 19 power-five offers when he was a high school recruit, and obviously things did not work out for him at Penn State, but I think he is a quarterback with some talent and pedigree and he showed some of it on Saturday. The rest of Pitt’s season is all about how much more potential Veilleux shows over these next six games, but for his first outing grades out well in my eyes. He makes the rest of the season more intriguing because I think he gives Pitt a chance to win a few more games and could prove himself to be the answer at quarterback for next season.

Pitt took a stand

The Pitt football program was battered following a four game losing streak to start the 2023 season. The Panthers had high hopes for this year, but a run of consecutive losses to Cincinnati, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech spoiled any chance for another big season for the program.

The outside expectations were not overly high for this Pitt team heading into the season, but internally they felt they had enough experience returning from the 2021 and 2022 squads to keep things rolling and contend for an ACC title once again.

Pitt was hit with a hard dose of reality almost instantly. There was something off with quarterback Phil Jurkovec and it did not take long for it to show in the team's second game against Cincinnati. His struggles persisted throughout the opening month, but Pitt stood with him as the starter as the season quickly faded from relevance.

The Louisville game represented a fresh start for this team in this particular season, and while the win was largely about willing to adapt to change at the most important position, it was also about showing some pride of what Pitt has been under Narduzzi.

Pitt is not going to be mistaken with college football’s elite as a program, but within ACC circles, the Panthers have been as consistent as anyone not named Clemson since Narduzzi’s arrival in 2015. A 1-4 start was certainly an outlier and not the norm and it was a black eye for a program that has prided itself on being known for development and consistency.

Pitt’s win over Louisville will be known as an upset since the Cardinals were undefeated and ranked when they entered the game. Given Pitt’s struggles and the way Louisville handled Notre Dame, it was definitely not a game many expected Pitt to win.

It still should also be noted Pitt was picked to finish ahead of Louisville in the preseason ACC poll. The win on Saturday sort of showcased to me what this team could have been if it played to its potential from the start, or rather had it gotten some better quarterback player during the month of September.

Pitt, though, had to wear that four-game losing streak and had to accept what went wrong. The Panthers were also dragged through the mud a bit with a blue vase controversy (I’m not getting into the whole story), leading up to the game. The program needed a win for itself, to show others, and turn the page with a new quarterback.

I’ll give them credit for the response to the noise, while acknowledging it was a lot of self sabotage that got them in that predicament in the first place. In any event, a 17-point win over a top-15 team on the heels of a four-game losing streak is not something you could have expected with how things were going this season. Pitt won that game and showed some pride and we’ll see if they can carry that into something greater, or if it was just a one off occurrence.

Defense showed promise

The Pitt defense has had moment this year of looking like a capable unit, while at other times it is a group that has struggled. We saw a little of that Jekyll and Hyde act with the Panthers’ defense on Saturday.

Pitt allowed 430 yards of offense to Louisville on Saturday. The Panthers surrendered 4.7 yards per carry to a trio of Louisville running backs, as some missed tackling issues persisted. Louisville wide receiver Jamari Thrash torched the Pitt defense for 120 yards on nine catches.

Through all of those shortcomings on defense, I still think it was a solid performance for Pitt, and it was one of the main reasons that propelled the team to a win. Pitt held Louisville scoreless after halftime and for the game it generated three turnovers, four sacks, and held the Cardinals to 0-of-4 on fourth down attempts. Louisville never crossed Pitt’s 20-yard line in the second half, and the defense made enough splash plays to forge ahead late in the game.

Pitt’s pass rush received a big spark from freshman defensive end Samuel Okunlola, who recorded a second quarter strip sack and recovered the fumble himself in a very explosive play that ultimately led to a Pitt touchdown. Okunlola now has three sacks this year and is impressing a lot of people, including the coaches, with his play of late and it looks like he will have an increased role down the stretch.

Pitt’s linebackers continue to come up with splash plays. Solomon DeShields had perhaps his best game of his career with seven tackles, one sack, and a QB hurry. The Panthers continue to get young, talented freshmen like Braylan Lovelace and Jordan Bass involved as well. This is a group with experience and also some youth and the two have been working off of each other of late.

The Pitt secondary kind of hard a normal back and forth battle. They gave up some long plays, got hit with some penalties, but were battle tested when the second half rolled around and took advantage of it. MJ Devonshire stole headlines with his third career pick six, and AJ Woods also came down with an interception of his own. The safeties looked solid, a question mark coming into the season, and the trio of Javon McIntyre, Donovan McMillon, and PJ O’Brien combined for 21 tackles in the game.

I think moving forward you would like to see better team tackling, less rushing yards allowed, and fewer penalties. Pitt’s defense has been effective at times this year, even with less star power than last year, but consistency has been the downfall. Heading into the second half, I think one of the main things you want to see from Pitt's defense is just continued growth from the younger players to make some noise down the stretch, but also to form a nucleus for next season.

Should Pitt start both freshmen guards?

I will step aside from football for a minute to discuss some preseason basketball. The Pitt basketball season is fast approaching with the team hosting an exhibition game in a few weeks against Pitt-Johnstown on November 1st, before the home opener against North Carolina A&T on November 6th.

Pitt held an open practice last week to fans and media to give a first look at the 2023-24 team. The first hour and a half was a typical basketball practice, before a ‘scrimmage’ to end things. The live segment was informal and Capel noted it was just the second five on five during the preseason. Players rotated on different teams to give different lineup looks, but there was definitely a rotation that resembled a starting five.

Ishmael Leggett and Bub Carrington at guard, Zack Austin and Blake Hinson as the forwards, and Federiko Federiko at center.

Following the scrimmage, Capel had a press conference and said it was still too early to call anyone a starter besides Hinson. That’s fair, because I think there should be at least two more players considered beyond those five.

Guillermo Diaz Graham looked impressive during March and he deserves a lot of minutes. The other? Freshman guard Jaland Lowe.

Pitt is in a weird spot at guard since the departure of Dior Johnson. They really only have three starting candidates. With all due respect to recent transfer Michael Huett, he just here. It’s Carrington, Leggett, and Lowe. The conventional thought has been Leggett and one of the freshmen would start. Maybe you could talk yourself into all three starting Or…start both freshmen?

It might be worth looking into on Capel’s part and it’s not without precedent either. I’ll start by saying, Leggett, the transfer from Rhode Island, is likely going to be one of Pitt’s leading scorers this season. I think he can get 9-12 points a game whether he’s a starter or not. There will be minutes for him every game and he is going to get his shots up, that’s just Leggett’s game.

With that in mind, getting a chance to have both young, talented guards on the floor together could be an intriguing option and might be a gamble worth testing. Lowe was recently named one of the top 20 impact freshmen ahead of the college basketball season by The Athletic. I have to admit, I might be even higher on Carrington. He really looks the part and could be one of the best freshmen in the ACC this season, I really believe he has that kind of ability. I expected him to be more heavy on outside shooting, but he looks smooth with the basketball and has much more lead guard to his game than he was billed as coming out of high school.

Carrington and Lowe were both four star recruits and good recruiting wins for Pitt. They weren't top 50 players, however. They are both generating some serious buzz above what they were expected to be as recruits. It's an interesting development if this hype is real. There are plenty of different directions Pitt can go with its starting five, but handing the keys to the freshmen right away could be one of the more higher reward options.

What should Pitt expect against Wake Forest?

Pitt ended a four-game losing streak last week, while Wake Forest extended one of its own with a third consecutive loss, a 30-13 setback to Virginia Tech. The Demon Deacons, picked to finish ninth in the ACC in the preseason, are amid a free fall at the moment. Wake Forest has lost three in a row and have failed to score more than 16 points in a game during this current losing skid.

The offense has struggled, which is a surprise for a Dave Clawson-coached team. Wake Forest was the highest-scoring team in the ACC last year, but with the departure of quarterback Sam Hartman, the program has fallen fast on that side of the ball. Not only have there been struggles, now the injury bug is being introduced to the equation.

Mitch Griffis, the starting quarterback, was replaced in favor of Michael Kern last week against Virginia Tech. Clawson revealed during his press conference that Kern is now injured and will be missing the next few games. Griffis himself is also battling an injury and his status is questionable for Saturday. The next man in line may be Santino Marucci, a redshirt sophomore, who has previously played running back and linebacker in college. It could be a bit messy for this Wake Forest given the uncertainty at quarterback.

Wake Forest has had problems with its quarterback play this year and also with the offensive line protecting that spot as well. The Demon Deacons have allowed 29 sacks this season, the fifth most in the country this season. Pitt’s defense may not have the same feared pass rush as it usually does, but the Panthers still have 20 sacks through six games, tied for the seventh most nationally in that department. Pitt last played Wake Forest back in 2021, when the Panthers recorded five sacks in the ACC title game. I expect the Panthers to bring the pressure on Saturday

Wake Forest’s defense presents some challenges and in a way it can kind of mirror Pitt from a scheme standpoint, which Narduzzi noted in his press conference on Monday. They can be prone to allowing big plays, which can also be a common knock against Pitt sometimes. The Demon Deacons have 17 sacks on the year (also Pitt-like), so their pass rush could be a factor against Pitt’s young offensive line. Wake Forest did allow 462 yards last week to Virginia Tech, so the group is not coming off a strong performance by any means. Pitt can at least enter this game with a feeling like it can win. Wake Forest has struggled on both sides of the ball, but now with some uncertainty at quarterback, it feels like an opportunity for the Panthers.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt makes it two in a row

I do not think Pitt can go into any game in the back half of the schedule feeling overly confident, but some of these games appear to be more winnable than others. Pitt’s tilt with Wake Forest feels like one of those games. The Demon Deacons are reeling with three straight losses and enter the game with some question marks surrounding its quarterback situation.

Wake Forest has not been scoring many points when the schedule shifted to league play. In fact, the Demon Deacons have scored just three offensive touchdowns during this current three-game losing streak and over that same time period have committed nine turnovers.

Wake Forest has had well documented protection issues with its offensive line as well. The defense this season is better than it has been in previous years, but it has been tough to notice with the offense regressing so much.

Pitt is 0-2 in road games this season with a pair of losses coming to West Virginia and Virginia Tech in front of sold-out night game atmospheres. Wake Forest’s Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium and its 31,500 capacity should be a bit more forgiving of an environment than Pitt’s previous road games. I think all of that lays out Pitt’s opponent tomorrow pretty fairly. The Demon Deacons are struggling and they are only a one-point favorite over a 2-4 Pitt team. Pitt should have a shot here, but I think Saturday’s result will be more about how the Panthers perform than what Wake Forest does to counter them.

Pitt’s offense still needs to show more consistency. The Panthers generated four offensive scores last week, a major improvement, but still failed in racking up first downs and leaving with too many empty drives. The Pitt defense stepped up when it needed to against Louisville, but missed tackles continued to be a weak point and Wake Forest will surely do its best to feed running backs Demond Claiborne and Justice Ellison, two of the best weapons the team possesses.

In the end, I think this Pitt team can find a way to pull out a win here. The strength of Pitt’s program has been taking care of business in league play throughout the years. Prior to the start of this season, Pitt’s ACC win total was the second most in the conference since Narduzzi’s arrival in 2015.

Pitt needs to see more consistent play from Veilleux and its whole offensive production, but I think last week’s game was a good building block and it showed enough promise. I think Pitt finds a way to win on Saturday by a score of 31-21.