The 3-2-1 Column: OL strength, DB respect, interesting Austin and more
In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're looking position strengths, trending arrows, surprising stats and more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The offensive line is a strength
I’m still a little surprised about this. I really am.
I can’t remember the last time I went into a season thinking that Pitt had the offensive line as one of its team strengths.
But here we are.
That’s not to say that the offensive lines on previous Pitt teams haven’t been a strength. The line was a strength in 2016, of course. It was very effective at run-blocking in 2018. And it was really good in 2021, too. The line in 2014 wasn’t too bad, either, even if it felt like James Conner got 95% of his yards after contact (according to Pro Football Focus, it was only about 50%). And we can track all the way back to 2009, when the best line of Dave Wannstedt’s six years at Pitt produced the best offense, best team and best record of Dave Wannstedt’s six years at Pitt.
There have been good offensive lines in the past. But I’m not sure I felt as optimistic about any of those groups heading into the season as I do about this year’s line.
I really think they’re going to be really good.
Let’s look at some numbers.
Jake Kradel - super senior, 43 games played, 38 starts
Blake Zubovic - super senior, 33 games played, 15 starts
Matt Goncalves - redshirt senior, 35 games played, 18 starts
Ryan Jacoby - redshirt senior, 16 games played, 5 starts
Branson Taylor - redshirt junior, 28 games played, 4 starts
That’s the top five, and while Jacoby’s five starts last season all came as an extra blocker at tight end, there’s a fair amount of confidence from the South Side that he’s going to be a very good guard.
And if Jacoby isn’t up to snuff - or if Taylor isn’t, for that matter - there’s the wild card:
Ryan Baer
Baer is the best offensive line prospect Narduzzi has signed, a big-time four-star recruit who had the offer sheet to match that rating and the talent to exceed it. Baer played three games last season and preserved his redshirt, but it’s going to be tough for the coaches to keep him off the field in 2023. They said as much during spring camp, when Baer was impressing his coaches and teammates on a daily basis.
The result of that spring performance is that there’s a three-way battle for the two starting spots on the left side of the line.
If Taylor and Jacoby earn the jobs, then Taylor will be the left tackle and Jacoby will be the left guard. If Baer and Jacoby win the spots, Baer will play left tackle next to Jacoby. And if Taylor and Baer are the top two, Taylor can play tackle and Baer can slide inside to guard.
However it works out, Baer’s emergence gives Dave Borbely options - and a greater chance of getting the five best linemen on the field together.
I won’t go so far as to call it an embarrassment of riches, because filling out spots 7-10 will mean relying on some more unproven players. But the 1-6 of Goncalves, Zubovic, Kradel, Jacoby, Taylor and Baer - not necessarily in that order - is as good as we’ve seen in quite a few years.
I’m personally of the mind that Goncalves is going to be the next Pitt lineman to get All-ACC honors and hear his name called in the NFL Draft. I think he’s that good.
So you’ve got talent, experience and some depth. That’s a great combination to have, and after losing almost all of the returning starters to injury last season, Pitt is due for some good luck in 2023.
Keep that top six healthy, and the offensive line is going to be really good.
An amazing stat
Sometimes things get stuck in my head.
Sometimes I’ll come across a stat or a factoid or a piece of info that I just can’t get my head around and it sticks in there for days. Sometimes weeks.
Like last November, when Pitt’s running backs carried the ball 147 times and lost yardage on just two of those 147 plays. I thought about that stat a lot last year.
Or just about any tight end stat from the last eight years. They’re pretty much all bad, and several of them have probably occupied more space in my brain in than they deserved.
You could find lots of examples in the many years that I’ve done this job - many times when a stat got stuck in my head and I couldn’t get over it until I found some new unbelievable stat and forgot about the old one.
So here’s the one I can’t get past, no matter how many times I toss it around and talk about it:
In eight years of Pat Narduzzi Football, Pitt has had just one cornerback or safety receive All-ACC first-team honors from the coaches.
One.
Eight years of defensive back-heavy play, and only one guy has made the all-conference first team.
That was Paris Ford in 2019.
I get that selection. While Ford was wild in his unpredictability, he was also one of the most exciting players I’ve seen in my time covering Pitt. He recorded 97 tackles, three interceptions, 11 pass breakups and three forced fumbles that year.
He was exciting to watch and the rest of the conference (rightfully) took notice. While I have my own misgivings about Ford’s inconsistency and assignment-based unreliability, he put on a show that season. There’s no denying that.
But I think there’s also no denying the caliber of Pitt’s other defensive backs over those years. Jordan Whitehead, Damar Hamlin, Erick Hallett, Brandon Hill, Avonte Maddox, Dane Jackson, Jason Pinnock, Damarri Mathis - all NFL Draft picks, but none of them was an All-ACC first-team selection.
Not to mention M.J. Devonshire, who had three interceptions and two pick-sixes last season; the best he could manage was a second-team selection for his special teams contributions (he had a punt return touchdown).
In fact, the only time a Pitt cornerback has been recognized by the coaches as a first or second-team selection under Narduzzi came in 2019; Dane Jackson was on the second team that year.
The safeties have been a little better represented. Hallett (2022), Hill (2021), Hamlin (2020) and Whitehead (2016) were all second-team selections.
If we want to compare to other positions, Pitt has had one first-team selection at quarterback, two at running back, two at receiver, six offensive linemen, four defensive ends, three defensive tackles (three selections for two players), one linebacker and three special teams players.
The fact that Pitt has had more receivers than defensive backs on the All-ACC first team is wild to me. Simply wild.
Maybe it’s a respect issue. Maybe it’s the lack of stats, since a Pitt defensive back has never finished higher than fifth in the conference in interceptions over the last eight seasons. Maybe the ACC coaches just don’t particularly care for Pitt’s style of play in the defensive backfield.
It’s probably some combination of all of those factors.
Either way, it’s crazy to me, and I probably won’t get that one out of my head for awhile.
A trending arrow
There’s no need for an arrow to trend up on the cornerbacks and safeties this season; that group is either proven (the corners) or benefits from some well-earned confidence based on the coaching staff’s track record of recruiting, evaluation and development (the safeties).
There are other positions on the team where things haven’t been quite as strong and consistent, though, but I think the arrow is pointing up for a few of those.
Like linebacker. That hasn’t been a position of strength for Pitt since…H.B. Blades and Clint Session? Scott McKillop?
If you look at the position groups under Pat Narduzzi and order them according to things like NFL Draft picks and All-ACC recognition, linebacker is near the bottom. Not the very bottom - you know what’s down there - but pretty close. Only one Pitt linebacker who played for Narduzzi has been drafted, and that was this year when SirVocea Dennis went to Tampa Bay in the fifth round. Dennis was also the only Pitt linebacker in the last eight years and earn first or second-team All-ACC honors (he was a first-team pick this past season and a second-team selection two years ago).
That’s it. No other Pitt linebacker has earned any of those distinctions, and to be honest, I’m not sure any others really played at a level to deserve it.
But I think that trend is going to change. Or, put another way, I think a new trend is going to start.
I’ve never been shy about my expectations for Bangally Kamara. I think he’s going to be good enough this season to match what Dennis did last year:
First-team All-ACC and an NFL Draft pick.
I also think Shayne Simon and Solomon DeShields will be a great duo to go with Kamara and should both have good seasons.
There’s a bit of a gap after those guys, but I think the linebacker recruiting in the last few years points to a better tomorrow. Jordan Bass was one of the top overall recruits in the 2023 class; Braylan Lovelace was one of the standout freshmen in spring camp; Rasheem Biles is a great fit for the role Pitt projects him in. Then you have Kyle Louis from the 2022 class; the coaches have some really high expectations for him.
And I think the 2024 class has some strong prospects at linebacker. Davin Brewton is the middle linebacker of the future; Aliquippa four-star Cameron Lindsey is a really good prospect who can play inside or outside; and Jeremiah Marcelin is a really good athlete out of Florida.
You can even go further. The 2025 class locally features Dayshaun Burnett, a four-star stud at Imani Christian, and Bradley Gompers, a long athlete at Central Catholic. And the Vikings have more linebackers in the pipeline with 2026 standouts Colsen Gatten and Ashton Blatt and 2027 rising star Roman Thompson.
Pitt may or may not get all of those young linebackers in the WPIAL, but the Panthers are in early on them, and if the linebacker play keeps trending up like I expect it to, it should only help their chances with some of those local standouts.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Is Marquis Williams the most underrated player?
Going back to the defensive backs…
Is there a more underrated player on Pitt’s roster than Marquis Williams? I think Pitt fans have largely come around to respecting him, even if it took some time. But beyond the fan base, there’s not a whole lot out there.
Phil Steele didn’t put him on his preseason All-ACC team. Reigning All-ACC corner Aydan White from N.C. State and Louisville’s Jarvis Brownlee made the list for him.
Williams was also nowhere to be found on the ACC’s official all-conference team from last season. Well, that’s not entirely true: he was nowhere to be found on the ACC’s all-conference first, second or third team. He was an honorable mention, along with 11 other cornerbacks. Since there were two cornerbacks on each of the top three All-ACC teams, that put him somewhere among the 18 best cornerbacks in the league.
Somehow I feel like he deserves better than being a top-18 player at his position.
Let’s have some fun with numbers.
According to Pro Football Focus, there were 53 defensive backs in the ACC last season who recorded at least 300 coverage snaps. Among those 53, Williams ranked No. 6 in PFF’s coverage rating.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit that PFF’s ratings are fairly subjective, so let’s set that aside for a moment and try to find some more tangible stats.
Like targets.
According to PFF, Williams was targeted just 28 times last season. That’s fewer targets than any other cornerback in the conference who played 300+ coverage snaps and less than 12 of the 22 safeties who hit that minimum.
Teams just didn’t throw at him. And while Williams’ 313 coverage snaps were on the low end of ACC cornerbacks, that still means he only saw a target on 8.9% of his coverage snaps. First-team All-ACC corner Anthony Johnson from Virginia was targeted on 15.7% of his coverage snaps. Fellow first-team All-ACC corner Aydan White was targeted on 17% of his coverage snaps.
Second-team selections Fentrell Cypress and Storm Duck and third-team selections Kei’Trel Clark and Tyrique Stevenson were all targeted on a higher percentage of their coverage snaps than Williams.
So yes, White, Duck and Stevenson had more interceptions than Williams (Anthony Johnson had two, like Williams did, while Clark had one and Cypress didn’t record a single pick), but all of them were targeted at a higher percentage than Williams was.
You know what that indicates to me?
Respect.
Respect from opposing quarterbacks.
Now, not all of the stats favor Williams. He did allow 17 receptions on those 28 targets for a 60.7% reception rate that was higher than Cypress (45.7%), Duck (59.5%), Johnson (51.7%), White (50%) and Stevenson (42.5%). Of the six corners who made the All-ACC first, second and third teams, only Kei’Trel Clark, who made the third team from Louisville, had a higher reception rate at 61.8%.
Clark is a useful example: higher reception rate, high target percentage and fewer interceptions, and he even took more penalties.
But he got the ACC honors and Williams didn’t.
Ultimately, I think we all have an appreciation for how Williams plays and his impact on the defense, and it really doesn’t matter what the outside world thinks. But it would be nice to see somebody who has worked like Williams has get some recognition.
I know he’d appreciate it.
Is Zack Austin the most interesting man?
If you didn’t see the interview we did with Zack Austin last week, I highly recommend that you check it out.
In a summer of football position rankings and football recruiting updates and football football football, sitting down for a chat with one of Pitt’s incoming hoops transfers was a nice change of pace.
I think that was even more so because of Zack Austin himself, who just might be the most interesting man on Pitt’s roster this season.
Okay, there are certainly some characters on the team. Blake Hinson has got a way with words (and he’s very direct, so if you miss his joke the first time, don’t expect him to repeat it; call him Blake One-Time). The Diaz Graham twins bubble over with personality; if Pitt has a successful season, you can count on the local news networks following them around Oakland (the commentary will be gold, I’m sure of it).
Maybe some other players will emerge, but I think Austin is going to stand alone.
And I think he’s going to prove himself to be really interesting on the court.
If you listened to that interview, there was a lot to dig into. But the one thing that really stood out to me was when Austin was describing his game.
Basically, he does a little bit of everything.
Shooting? Driving? Dunking? Rebounding? Defending?
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
He can probably pass, too, since he had nearly 90 assists over the last two seasons. But let’s not get greedy. Those other five skills are pretty good.
Austin genuinely believes he can do them all.
I’m not entirely convinced that he can’t.
He was a 33% three-point shooter in two seasons at High Point. He shot 53.5% inside the arc and converted 64.5% at the rim, according to Hoop-Math (for reference, Federiko Federiko was the only Pitt player last season to convert a higher percentage at the rim).
As for rebounds, he averaged 6.7 boards per game over the last two seasons, including an even 8.0 as a redshirt freshman in 2021-22.
On the defensive end, he ranked first in the Big South in defensive win shares and 10th in defensive rating two years ago. But I think his words tell the story there: according to Austin, his job in every game is to guard the other team’s best player.
I like that ambition.
Put it all together, and you have a 6’7” wing who can jump out of the gym, who averaged two blocks per game, who was one of the best defenders in his conference, who can shoot better than 30% from three, who can finish at the rim and who wants to defend the other team’s best player.
There’s not another guy like him on Pitt’s roster this season.
Quite frankly, I don’t think there was another guy like him on Pitt’s roster last season. The closest comparison - and I can’t take credit for doing up with this - is Nike Sibande.
Except Nike wasn’t 6’7”.
So Austin can possibly be a taller version of Nike.
Which is pretty damn interesting.
ONE PREDICTION
Prediction: Pitt gets a first-team DB
One more thought on the defensive backs, because we might as well bring it all full-circle here.
I’ve written today about how Pitt’s cornerbacks have been ignored on the All-ACC teams.
And I’ve written about how Marquis Williams is underrated and disrespected.
So it only makes sense to conclude this week’s column by predicting that this year’s All-ACC first team will feature (pause for dramatic effect)…
M.J. Devonshire
Okay, I went the other way on that - Devonshire instead of Williams - but I think the former Quip is the guy who will emerge as the No. 1 on this year’s team.
Really, Devonshire wasn’t too far off from being the top corner in the ACC last year. He was tied for second among conference cornerbacks in interceptions with three. He was tied for the second-most pick-sixes in the nation (one of the players he was tied with was Williams, incidentally). He allowed 33 receptions on 62 targets, according to PFF; that’s a 53.2% reception rate that was better than the numbers put up by Storm Duck, Jarvis Brownlee and Kei’Trel Clark.
Devonshire was also top-10 among ACC corners in pass breakups and forced incompletions, according to PFF, and as he enters his third season in Pitt’s defense, I think he’ll only be even better.
There were never any questions about Devonshire’s speed and athletic ability; he did more than enough in high school to prove that he is a plus-athlete. But what he has really developed in the last two years at Pitt is technique.
That’s the big difference for all the corners who come through Narduzzi’s defense, and there are more stories than I can count of talented athletes becoming talented cornerbacks and safeties after a few years of learning the system and working with these coaches.
Devonshire figures to be the next big success story.
Actually, he already is a success story. My prediction here is that his next success will be first-team all-conference honors.
And after that, the NFL Draft.
I might even go so far as to predict that Devonshire will end up being viewed as one of the top corners of the Narduzzi era. Top two or three. Maybe top one.
That’s a lofty expectation to set for the young man, so let’s set the bar (kind of) low at first-team All-ACC.
And then we’ll go from there.