MORE HEADLINES - PODCAST: What did we see in the spring game? | Could Abanikanda be the answer for Pitt's running game? | Slideshow: Photos from the Blue-Gold Game | Film review: Five good things from the Blue-Gold Game | Drexel embracing new role as starter | Who are the best prospects in western Pa. for the class of 2022?
In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about the Blue-Gold Game, standout skill players and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Momentum from the spring game
There has been something funny happening this offseason. I’ve noticed it, and I wonder if you have, too.
Amidst all the apparent chaos and perceived despair of the basketball program, with players leaving and, as of this writing, not enough coming in, the football program kind of quietly became a source of confidence for the Pitt fan base.
I’m not entirely sure how that happened. Pat Narduzzi’s group went 6-5 last season, suffered two monumental blowout losses and had two more defeats that were very much in the Shoulda-Been-A-Win category.
The offense struggled (again). The defense got beat by talented opponents (again). And there were head-scratchers sprinkled throughout the season (again).
And yet, the football program ascended to the role of Program of Promise in the Pitt Athletic Department (at least among the prominent programs). I think part of that is how the football program looked by comparison to the hoops program, but I don’t think that’s all of it.
Kenny Pickett coming back: that was a big part. I think if Pitt was looking to break in a new starting quarterback this season, there would be a good deal more apprehension among the fans. But his return answered one big question, and that helped the optimism.
The 2021 recruiting class went pretty well for Pitt, too. The Panthers signed Narduzzi’s highest-rated class last December, fighting off some tough competition for some pretty good recruits. That doesn’t necessarily impact the upcoming season, but it adds some good vibes.
The transfer market helped as well, and M.J. Devonshire and Marcus Minor will both make an impact this season (Melquise Stovall potentially could, too).
Again, good vibes.
And then came Saturday.
I wrote in last week’s column and said on last week’s podcast and repeated on last week’s radio show that we should not expect much in the way of fireworks at the Blue-Gold Game on Saturday. Narduzzi’s spring extravaganzas have been anything but extravagant, epitomized best by 2018’s slog of a game - you remember that one, right? A 10-3 final with the only touchdown coming on a pick-six at the very end.
Boy, that had the fans fired up.
Look, I know we all talk about defense winning championships. We’re in Pittsburgh, after all; that kind of mindset is in the water. But let’s be real: it’s pretty fun to watch offense. When a team makes big plays on offense, people get excited. And nobody was getting too much excitement out of Pitt’s previous spring games.
This year was different, though. We got four - four! - offensive touchdowns, with some really nice plays on that side of the ball from both teams. We saw running backs, receivers and tight ends make plays, and with Pickett watching from the sideline, we saw some backup quarterbacks get some solid work done.
It was a good show. The kind of performance that can make fans think you just might have some playmakers out there.
And we all know this team needs playmakers.
So the offseason will continue, presumably with the good vibes that have surrounded the program since that win in Atlanta to end the 2020 season. I’m guessing the staff will pull in some commitments in June, and that will help the momentum even more. And then, barring anything headline-grabbing like a surprise transfer out or a season-ending injury, Narduzzi will lead his troops into the 2021 season with as much optimism in the fan base as he has had at Pitt.
After that comes the real test. But we’ll deal with that when it’s time.
A big weapon
Lucas Krull was all the rage last offseason.
The 6’7” tight end transferred to Pitt from Florida, and anyone you talked to at Pitt said the same thing: he’s a matchup nightmare who runs like a deer and has really good receiver skills.
That sounded like just what the doctor ordered after years of inconsistent, ineffective and sometimes downright bad play at tight end.
It’s safe to say that Krull’s on-field results didn’t live up to the hype.
He missed the season opener against Austin Peay due to injury. In the second game of the season, he played 53 snaps, saw five targets and caught one of them for six yards. That one reception gained a first down, so that was good, but he also dropped two passes and one of his incomplete targets was intercepted.
Even worse, Krull limped off after a tackle that afternoon and didn’t appear in any of the final nine games. So that was his season line: 5 targets, 1 reception, 6 yards.
Not exactly what Pitt fans were hoping for.
Fast-forward a year, and Krull is all the rage again. We’re told he is healthy and we’re told he was one of the standouts in spring camp. He certainly showed something in the Blue-Gold Game, catching two passes for 44 yards and a touchdown, and the scoring playing saw him show off a few skills. He ran a really nice route against John Petrishen, working toward a post route before breaking it off to the corner of the end zone with enough separation that Nick Patti was able to step up and find him for six.
Both of Krull’s receptions were good plays (he had to go low for his other catch), and if he can take some of the things he showed in the spring game and carry them into the season, he’s going to be Pitt’s most dangerous weapon at tight end since Scott Orndoff - plus, he’s got the physical tools to be even better than Orndoff.
I don’t think you can really overstate what it would mean if Krull could emerge as a playmaker. Having a tight end with his size and running ability can be a game-changer; it really can, especially when you’ve got guys like Jordan Addison at receiver and maybe even an impact player at running back. With a strong collection of skill players to draw the attention of the defense, a big matchup advantage at tight end can be an absolute killer.
I am not going to crown Krull just yet, but boy, he sure did look the part last Saturday.
Eventually, the transfer portal comes for us all
After getting through the offseason - to this point - with only walk-ons and medically-disqualified scholarship players going into the portal, Pitt finally lost a contributor this week when Carson Van Lynn decided to seek other opportunities.
Van Lynn played in 36 games over the last three seasons, lining up as a jumbo tight end when he was a redshirt freshman in 2018 and then moving back to offensive tackle for the last two years. He made eight starts in his career - five at tight end and three this year at right tackle - and was generally a solid lineman for the Panthers.
But when spring camp ended, Van Lynn seemingly looked at the situation with Pitt’s tackles and decided he might have a better chance elsewhere.
I personally think Van Lynn will end up at another Power Five school and could find himself in a starting lineup for the next couple seasons; I really do believe he’s a talented lineman, capable of playing at a high level.
And that’s the real upside of this news, in my view: Pitt just lost a capable fifth-year tackle to the transfer portal because - wait for it - the Panthers have talent and depth at offensive tackle.
Let that one sink in for a second, because it’s been a long time since you’ve been able to say that with a straight face.
The top three names that were discussed at tackle this spring were Carter Warren, Gabe Houy and Matt Goncalves. Warren and Houy came to Pitt in the 2017 recruiting class with Van Lynn; Warren has started 21 games at left tackle in the last two seasons and Houy has made 15 starts since 2018, with his playing time coming at right tackle and right guard.
Meanwhile, Goncalves, who replaced Warren in the starting lineup for a few games last season, is one of the team’s most talented offensive linemen.
That’s three quality, talented linemen, two of which have significant playing time. And I think you can add Branson Taylor to that list; the sophomore tackle played in a handful of games last season, and there have been some rave reviews about his performance this spring.
The result of all of that is a pretty good lineman decided to transfer, and I think that says an awful lot about the caliber of the tackles on this year’s roster.
We’ve all talked a lot this offseason about the offensive line and the need for improvement there. In some ways, I think Carson Van Lynn’s decision to transfer is one indication of what Pitt has on the line - and that’s a good thing.
The line will have to prove it, of course; we’ve heard rave reviews about linemen in the spring before, and those haven’t always carried over to effective play in the fall. But this year’s unit is looking like the best and deepest line Pitt has had in a long time.
Like I said, that’s a good thing.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Are you the one?
Well, if anything, I know people walked out of Heinz Field on Saturday feeling good about Israel Abanikanda.
Why wouldn’t you? The sophomore from New York City was one of the stars of the show - maybe the star of the show - in the Blue-Gold Game, rushing for 77 yards on a tidy six carries, including a 42-yard run on second-and-very-long that was arguably the best play of the day.
All the things we talked about with Abanikanda over the last year or 18 months were on display: his size, his speed, his vision and his knack for being a playmaker.
I’ll admit to having been on the bandwagon for Abanikanda since he committed way back in 2019, and I’ll also admit to having had at least a whisper of a voice in the back of my head that reminded of players from the state of New York whose highlight film made them look like Heisman candidates, but when they got to college, they made minimal impact.
(I should say, by way of full disclosure, that the middle years of Qadree Ollison’s career seemed to back up this concern about recruits who were in an Empire State of Mind, but he finished his time at Pitt on a high note.)
Still, even when Abanikanda’s freshman year saw him get less than 30 carries, I think I was able to keep my optimism about his future by chalking his lack of playing time up to ineffective pass-blocking. He seemed to be substandard in that area, and the coaches kept him off the field as a result.
If he could improve his pass protection, though, the sky seemed to be the limit. That’s what I believed.
And I believe that’s what he showed on Saturday.
Now, the question that Pitt fans have been asking for a long time, the question that hasn’t had an answer since at least 2018 and maybe longer, just might be answered.
The question is: Does this team have a true No. 1 running back?
The Panthers kind of had one in 2018 when they actually had two. Before that, you have to go back to 2016, when Pitt’s run of McCoy->Lewis->Graham->Conner (with a 1,000-yard year for Qadree Ollison in between) came to an end.
I’m not saying Abanikanda is going to return balance to Pitt’s offense, but the Panthers certainly need some of that. They seem to have what could be their best offensive line since 2016; now they just need somebody to carry the ball.
After Saturday, I know we’ll all spend this offseason thinking we know who that running back is.
What are the question marks?
A question about questions. How meta.
Okay, we’ve issued enough praise so far in this column, and we’re about to go way overboard in the final section of the column, so let’s dial it back a bit and talk about uncertainty. Let’s talk about the positions that gave us pause in the spring game. Let’s talk about the parts of Pitt’s roster that either have a lot to prove, or have already proven to be vulnerabilities.
In the category of proven vulnerabilities, there is the offensive line. It hasn’t been a great all-around unit in years, and while I do think there’s a whole lot of potential in that group, I will be the first to admit that they have to actually go out and do it. I think they’ll be better this year, but that remains to be seen.
Ditto for just about everyone on the offense, really. I can sit here and heap praise on Krull and Abanikanda and the rest of these guys based on what they’ve done this spring, but we all know that spring doesn’t count; they need to follow their strong spring performances with on-field results in the season.
I have my expectations for those players, but only time will tell if they meet those expectations.
On defense, the first set of questions is up front at defensive end. I have a fair amount of confidence in Habakkuk Baldonado and John Morgan and Deslin Alexandre; we’ve seen those guys on the field and they have all, at various points, looked pretty solid. But the guys they’re replacing - Patrick Jones and Rashad Weaver - were better than solid. Those two were Pitt’s best bookends since Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard, and their production exceeded what Romeus and Sheard did more than a decade ago.
My mantra with the defensive ends this offseason has been that they can be pretty good and, at the same time, show a falloff from last year, just because Weaver and Jones were that good. The question is how much of a falloff there is and how - or if - the rest of the defense picks up the slack.
I don’t have many questions about the linebackers, and I think there should be some good continuity at cornerback, where everybody is back other than Jason Pinnock, and Pitt’s got Damarri Mathis returning to replace Pinnock.
Safety is probably the biggest question mark on defense. Damar Hamlin and Paris Ford were pretty outstanding players, and we haven’t seen any of the potential replacements play at that level thus far in their career.
That’s not to say Erick Hallett and Brandon Hill and Judson Tallandier are bad players; just that we haven’t seen them at that level. MJ Devonshire should help here, either as a field safety or the extra defensive back in nickel packages (or both). But this is a pretty big question mark on the back end of the defense.
And then there’s special teams, which was probably the biggest concern anyone might have been thinking about when they walked out of Heinz Field last Saturday. Ben Sauls was the only available kicker, and the redshirt freshman was 1-of-2 on field goals, connecting from 35 yards and missing from 49. But he also missed one of his four extra point attempts, which is obviously not good.
I will say that Sauls’ 49-yard attempt appeared to have plenty of distance and five of his seven kickoffs went for touchbacks, so he’s got a strong-enough leg. But if Pitt finds itself in a lot of close games again, the kicking game could be put into high-pressure situations, and Sauls will have to prove himself.
Let’s use that as a closing statement on the topic of concerns: for the most part, I think that Pitt’s question marks are more a matter of unknowns, guys who haven’t proven themselves yet, than they are drawn from areas where talent is lacking. This team should have enough talent; it’s just a matter of players in certain areas stepping up.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt will do something - for the second time
Okay, full confession: I’m about to seriously overreact to a spring scrimmage.
Are you ready?
In 2021, Pitt will have a 3,000-yard passer and a 1,000-yard rusher in the same season for the second time in school history.
How’s that for an overreaction?
Alright, before you keep this one filed away for receipts, let me just say that I am putting this in the prediction section because I want to talk about the topic but it didn’t fit in the Three Things We Know or the Two Questions We Have. I do this sometimes: I have a topic I want to discuss but it doesn’t fit earlier in the column, so I drop it here under the guise of a “prediction.” And considering that my actual predictions are generally pretty bad, I feel like there’s little harm in putting a semi-prediction here.
Anyway, did you know that there has only been one instance in Pitt history of the Panthers having a 3,000-yard passer and a 1,000-yard rusher in the same season? Do you know when that was and who did it? I’ll let you ruminate on that one while we talk about 2021.
I think the 3,000-yard passing target should be pretty well in reach. Kenny Pickett threw for 3,098 yards in 12 games in 2019, and last year he had 2,408 yards in nine games; that’s an average of 267.6 yards per game, and if you put that over a 13-game season, the total approaches 3,500 yards.
I think we all know that the volume passing attack Pitt has employed under Mark Whipple is going to pile up yards. The question is whether or not the other half of this proposal can come through: Can Pitt get a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2018?
Obviously, I’m pretty high on Israel Abanikanda; you know that already. I think his skill set can make him an every-down back with the potential for big plays. I also have a fair amount of confidence in the offensive line; I kind of made that clear earlier, too. I think the combination of talent and experience should make that unit pretty strong.
If those things come together, if Abanikanda really is that guy and the line really is built for success, then the pieces would seem to be in place for a 1,000-yard rusher.
And if that happens, then we very well could have the first 3,000/1,000 combo since…
Not yet. I have one more thing to say before I give that trivia answer.
I do have a hangup for a 3,000/1,000 performance. Pickett’s 3,000-yard season in 2019 and on-pace-for-3,000 in 2020 were built largely off a high volume of passes. Among all Power Five quarterbacks in 2020, Pickett ranked No. 12 in attempts, despite playing in just nine games. The story was the same in 2019: Pickett ranked No. 5 among Power Five quarterbacks in attempts (in 12 games) .
It’s a volume passing game, due at least in some part to the lack of a running game. I can’t help but wonder how an improved running game would impact those numbers. If Pitt can run the ball better, it will take away the need for the sheer volume of passes, which could cut down on Pickett’s production.
Now, there’s a case to be made that an improved running game will also help set up play-action, which could result in some bigger gains through the air and balance out this whole equation. That’s probably the best-case scenario. But it’s tough to count on that until we see it.
So I’ll say it this way: I think the pieces are in place for Pitt get a 3,000/1,000 season.
The last time that happened:
2012, when Tino Sunseri threw for 3,288 yards and Ray Graham rushed for 1,042.
Nine years later, can the Panthers do it again?
