In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Jeff Capel's next moves with Pitt's roster, the keys to getting back to winning and whether things really are that bad.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Finding ways to lose

I guess if you find three different ways to lose three different games, you’re at least…creative?

When Pitt lost at Duke last Tuesday, it was a case of being outclassed, out-talented and outplayed in virtually every way. Never mind that the Panthers had the Blue Devils in striking distance with eight minutes left in the game; Cooper Flagg and company pulled a Vin Diesel - “You almost had me? You never had me.” - and blew Pitt out of the water for a dominant win.

So there was that.

Fast-forward four days and Pitt hosted Louisville at the Petersen Events Center. Free of the significant talent disparity, the Panthers found a new way to lose.

This time it was on the glass. I mean, Pitt got crushed on the glass by Duke - the Blue Devils were +15 in rebounds - but the loss to the Cardinals was a bit different. This time, Louisville owned the offensive boards, collecting 17 and turning them into 22 second-chance points.

Then came Wednesday’s loss at Florida State. There was no talent gulf like the Duke game and Pitt only gave up eight offensive rebounds. This time the biggest problem - and there were a few to choose from - was that the Panthers were absolutely abysmal in the first half, with six made field goals, just one offensive rebound and 14 turnovers.

Quite frankly, Pitt was fortunate to only be down by five at halftime, which is a testament to how poorly Florida State played.

Of course, the Panthers are no strangers to slow starts; they’ve seemingly made a habit of it. But the general variety of issues is a major concern for a team still planning on playing in March.

Because it means there’s no one simple solution for the problems.

Change the lineup, adjust the rotation, maybe try different sets and defenses; there’s ultimately one main thing this team has to do to get back on track:

Play better.

Some of that is personnel. Some of that is talent. Some of that is effort. But they simply have to play better. Cut down the turnovers. Shoot better. Get tougher with rebounding.

Personally, I’m of the opinion that this team still has a lot of talent, that what they showed in the first 14 games of the season (minus, you know, the Mississippi State game) is still indicative of who they are and who they can be.

But they’ve lost their way a bit. They’ve lost sight of those things I just said - who they are and who they can be - and while it doesn’t happen 100% of the time, it happens often enough to put them in jeopardy against just about anybody in the ACC.

They don’t have to lose those games, though. This team’s bread and butter is - or should be - based on the abilities of the guards to drive; whether it results in made baskets, foul shots or kick-outs to shooters, that’s what this team is doing when it is playing its best. And when they lose sight of that, when they’re unable to execute those basic principles, they end up stagnant, sloppy and disorganized.

So while there were different reasons for each of the last three losses, the biggest connective tissue is a simple question:

Who do they think they are? And who do they want to be?

Common threads in the losses

While the last three losses have come in different ways, I think there are a few common themes that emerged.

The first is three-point shooting. I talked about this on the Morning Pitt and on the message boards this week, and I’ll keep talking about it until they improve in this regard (and even then, I’ll probably talk about it as a positive development).

The improvement that has to happen, though, isn’t exactly what you would typically think of when you talk about improving three-point shooting.

Pitt doesn’t necessarily need to shoot better from beyond the arc. Pitt needs to shoot more from beyond the arc.

I mean, yes, you can always shoot better. But this year’s team is actually slightly better from three than last year’s was (36.3% vs. 35.7%). The big difference is in volume. Last year’s team averaged three more attempts and one more make from three per game than this year’s squad.

This year’s team isn’t necessarily a bad three-point shooting team; they just don’t shoot enough. And I think we’ve seen that on display in the last three games. At Duke, Pitt attempted just six three-pointers in the first half. Against Louisville, the Panthers attempted eight. Ditto for the Florida State game.

This Pitt team just isn’t going to survive with that kind of low volume of three’s. They corrected the issues in the second halves of each of those games, attempting 14, 13 and 13, respectively, and that’s more in line with where they need to be on a game-to-game basis.

The 2023-24 Pitt team averaged almost 27 attempts per game, and there’s no reason this year’s team should be too far off from that mark. They have good-enough shooters to justify the volume, and a consistent attack from outside will help the guards attack inside (and maybe even create some space for the centers to make an impact in the paint).

So that’s one thing: they’re not shooting enough three’s.

The next is obvious: they’re not rebounding well enough. In Pitt’s 11 games against high-major competition, the Panthers’ results have directly followed the rebounding:

When they got out-rebounded, they lost. When they won (or tied) in rebounding, they won the game.

It’s not as simple as that, of course. But then again, maybe it is.

The numbers are pretty stark, too. Pitt is +33 on the glass in the six games the Panthers have won against high-major teams. In the five losses, they are -60, with particularly ignominious outcomes like “minus-22 at Mississippi State” or “minus-15 at Duke” (as well as the aforementioned Louisville game).

But whereas the three-point shooting can be addressed and, seemingly, corrected by simply shooting more, I’m not sure there’s an equally obvious solution for rebounds. There are probably personnel moves Jeff Capel could make, but even with those, I’m not sure where this team’s ceiling is on the glass.

And part of that is due to the third issue:

Toughness.

I won’t sit here and say this Pitt team is soft. But I can’t say that I thought they were the tougher team in any of the last three games. Duke bullied them. Louisville owned the glass. And Florida State initiated the fight in a way that the Panthers couldn’t or wouldn’t respond to - until after the final horn, that is, and at that point, showing some heart transitions from being the sign of a tough team to the sign of a sore loser.

A year or two ago, the Pitt coaches made a big deal about trying to embody the spirit of the old Pitt teams. “Drag the other team down to the mud” - that was the stated goal, and with guys like Jamarcus Burton leading the charge, the team seemed to buy in.

This year’s team needs some of that.

I don’t know if you can manufacture that, though, just like I don’t know how much one team can improve its rebounding when they are 17 games into a season.

So for now, can they just shoot more three’s? That seems like a good place to start.

Play Jorge

Speaking of which…

Jeff Capel needs to be open to all options right now when it comes to personnel, and that includes - maybe starts with - Jorge Diaz Graham.

Look, I’ll be the first to admit that I have, at times, used Diaz Graham’s name and the word “unplayable” in the same sentence. There were times when his occasional three-pointers couldn’t overcome his defensive shortcomings and his offensive lapses, times when him being on the court was a net-negative - by a long shot.

That was back then, and back then isn’t right now. Because right now, Jorge is more than playable.

For a team in Pitt’s current state, he’s borderline essential.

Jaland Lowe may have put up 20 points in the second half at Florida State on Wednesday night, but it was Jorge who truly got the Panthers in striking distance of the Seminoles. When Pitt went on a 15-4 run to cut FSU’s lead from 16 to 5, it was Jorge who scored 10 of those 15 points with three made three’s and a free throw. And he made one more three inside the final 150 seconds to cut the Seminoles’ lead at that point to six.

Pitt wouldn’t have been anywhere close to mounting a comeback without Jorge, and while the comeback ultimately fell short, it didn’t fall short because of Jorge; he put up 15 points, one block, one steal and one offensive rebound in 13 minutes in the second half.

It’s not just the production, though. There’s more to it with Jorge - and his brother Guillermo, too.

Capel has said on multiple occasions that the Diaz Graham twins were a big part of Pitt’s turnaround two years ago because of the energy they brought. Their enthusiasm and activity on the court rubbed off on everyone else, and the results were clear to see.

Recently, it has looked like Jorge can still bring some of that. Guillermo probably can, too, but for some reason he is not permitted to play in the second half anymore. Maybe that will change on Saturday.

But I digress. When this team slumps, it seems to really slump. What’s the best way to break out of a slump? There are probably a few, but I think that energy and three-pointers are a good place to start, and we all know what Jorge can bring to the table:

Energy and three-pointers.

You know who else brings energy? Papa Amadou Kante. Capel himself praised the impact Kante had in Pitt’s win at Ohio State - not just because of his play and production but because of his energy. Capel felt like Kante added something extra in that regard, and I don’t disagree.

So why not go to that well again? I think we saw sparks of it at Florida State. This team needs energy, it needs a spark to get going sometimes; to me, there are two very good options who can provide exactly that.

Jorge and Kante have proven that they can contribute production and energy. I don’t know what the ceiling is for minutes they can play; it’s probably around 15 or 20, depending on the night. But they can help. Of that much, I’m sure.

This team has a few things it seems to miss for stretches, and energy is one of them.

Those two guys can bring it.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What should happen in the lineup?

‘Hey hon, what are you having today?’

‘Give me two guards, two wings and a center. And keep ‘em coming.’

That’s what I’d like to order for Saturday, because it just might be the best lunch Pitt can cook up right now.

At least, it was against Florida State.

On Wednesday night, Jeff Capel used a lot of different personnel groupings. 13 unique lineups in all, with only three repeated and none used for more than two rotations. There was the starting lineup, which was a change from previous weeks with Damian Dunn replacing Guillermo Diaz Graham and joining Jaland Lowe, Ishmael Leggett, Zack Austin and Cameron Corhen. That group played the first 5:29 of the game and the first 4:14 of the second half, and it didn’t go well.

Pitt got outscored 22-12 with that lineup on the floor. Not great.

Ditto for pretty much all of the times Capel used three-guard lineups on Wednesday night; there were 12 stretches with three guards on the court, and Pitt was a combined minus-13 in those situations. That doesn’t count when they went with four guards in the first half; the Panthers were outscored 1-0 in that 1:10 of play.

More relevant than the struggles of the three-guard lineups, though, is the success Pitt found when it went with two guards and two wings (two forwards, really, but calling Zack Austin and Jorge Diaz Graham wings seems a little more accurate, to me).

With Austin and Jorge playing alongside two guards and a center for the final 9:27 of the game, Pitt outscored Florida State 29-27. Not a huge scoring advantage, but a scoring advantage all the same.

To some extent, Capel was limited in how often he could use a lineup like that in the past because he probably didn’t feel like he had a great option to use next to Austin. Guillermo Diaz Graham kind of did it when he was starting at the 4, but he was more of a 4/5 than a 3/4, which is what Austin has been doing.

And what Jorge did on Wednesday.

We’re coming back to the whole point about playing Jorge more, because if Capel felt like he didn’t have the wings to play with just two guards, well, now he does. He can use Austin and Jorge together. He can sprinkle in Guillermo in that role while also rotating him - and Kante - with Cam Corhen at center. And he can mix and match the guards, occasionally opting for three guards but not being forced to do so because of a lack of options at the 3 and 4 spots.

I don’t know if Capel feels like these are desperate times calling for desperate measures. After all, there was a point 12 months ago almost to the day when Pitt was 10-7 overall and 1-5 in the ACC, having lost four out of its previous five games and seemingly in a pretty desperate spot.

Capel didn’t do anything drastic at that point other than returning Federiko Federiko to the starting lineup, which was notable but hardly earth-shattering.

I would contend that situation was more desperate then the current one, so perhaps Capel won’t be inclined to make any major changes. But I also don’t really recall thinking that last year’s team had quite as many obvious changes that could and maybe even should be made.

From using more two-guard lineups to getting more minutes for Jorge to getting a more even split of minutes at center, there are plenty of things Capel can do right now, and they don’t even have to be considered reversing course; they would simply be a response to the developments of a season, a product of 17 games worth of information.

Is it really all bad?

Because it feels all bad.

Pitt football finished its season losing six games in a row.

Pitt basketball has lost three in a row.

Pitt volleyball lost its best incoming recruit at a position of need after just a couple days on campus.

Beyond Oakland, the Steelers lost five in a row, the Penguins are playing goaltender musical chairs and the Pirates are the Pirates.

Did I miss anything? Did Keith Gavin spill paint all over the wrestling mats? Did somebody deflate all the soccer balls in Pitt’s equipment shed?

Yeah, it kind of feels like everything is bad right now. So let’s try to find some good things.

Start with football. The Panthers didn’t finish on anything approaching a high note, but they do return two All-Americans and a five-time ACC Rookie of the Week, not to mention some really promising young defensive tackles, a stat-stuffing linebacker who has a chance to be one of the best players at his position in the ACC next year and a bunch of young guys who got a lot of valuable experience in 2024.

And that six-game losing streak? It’s not a giant intellectual leap to convince yourself that Pitt would have won most of those games if Eli Holstein stayed healthy. September and early October were a really long time ago, so it’s easy to forget how good he was. But he was really good, and his return for 2025 is a huge piece of the puzzle.

Oh, and that little trip to Detroit the day after Christmas may have created more heartbreak than hopefulness, but the emergence of Julian Dugger as a viable option was pretty big.

So I think there are things to like on that front, if you’re willing to look for them.

On the hoops side, the natural reaction to a losing streak is to kind of feel like it might never end. But we know the losing streak will end. Most of the things we believed about this team - largely centered around outstanding guard play - are still true enough to believe that the losing streak will be snapped at some point.

More relevantly, this team has hardly played itself out of its postseason ambitions. Pitt is in better position right now to make the NCAA Tournament than the Panthers were last year at this point.

Also, I remain convinced that Pitt’s issues in recent games - other than Duke - are largely correctable with this roster. Jeff Capel has a few options for tinkering that should allow him to fine-tune this operation over the next six weeks.

It’s tough to be optimistic in the middle of a losing streak, but I think there’s still enough to like about this team to find some hope.

As for Pitt volleyball, I think Dan Fisher has earned enough goodwill to not freak out too much about Samara Coleman’s departure, but it does leave a hole at outside hitter. We’ll see how the Coach of the Year fills that one.

And the pro sports…well, I don’t have a lot to say there. I’ll leave that to the professionals.

Right now Pitt - on a lot of fronts - is in a dip, but I think it’s a dip the Panthers can pull out of.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt will make the Tournament

I think there are two ways to look at Pitt’s three consecutive losses.

You can view them as being indicative of the Panthers’ shortcomings, three instances where the weaknesses and the ways in which those weaknesses will sink the season were on full display.

Or you can see them as learning opportunities, situations where the Pitt staff and the Pitt players were exposed to the things they need to work on the most, areas where they need to improve the most.

I’m choosing a little bit of both, but I’ll be honest:

I’m still pretty confident about this team’s postseason chances. And I say that for a few reasons.

For starters, there’s the resume. Despite the the last three losses, the Panthers are still at No. 31 in the NET rankings. Those rankings can and do move every day, and sometimes one team’s movement isn’t even related to something that team did, since other team’s accomplishments and failures can have an effect.

But even though the NET is somewhat volatile, Pitt is in a much better position right now than it was a year ago at this point, largely due to the non-conference. After all, the non-conference schedule was probably the single biggest factor that kept the Panthers out of the Tournament last year. That won’t be the case this year, since playing Ohio State and Mississippi State on the road have bolstered Pitt’s non-conference strength of schedule well beyond what it could have ever reached last season.

So the team is starting out ahead of where it was last year, and that’s big.

The other reason I’m confident is because I still think this team is pretty good. They’ve hit some rough patches, but they still have two really good guards, a veteran third guard, good three-point shooting wings and a center position that has shown some weaknesses but can be improved with a few tweaks.

And while that roster has lost three in a row, I’m also encouraged by the fact that the Panthers were beaten purely on the merit of talent in just one of those games. I’m not saying that Pitt has more talent than Louisville or Florida State (there’s a debate to be had), but the Duke game was the only one of the three where the Panthers were just simply not good enough on a roster-to-roster basis.

The Louisville and Florida State games were winnable opportunities that Pitt failed to capitalize upon; that can come back to bite you, but it’s not quite as discouraging as it would be if the Panthers looked like they were a class below both of those teams.

They’re not. They’re still a top-six-or-better team in the ACC, in my opinion, and with some fine-tuning, they can play like it (again).

The remaining schedule also provides a lot of opportunities. Eight of the final 14 games are currently Quad 1 or Quad 2, which is good for the resume. But like I said, the non-conference schedule helped build the resume; now Pitt just needs take care of business against half or more of the Q1/Q2 opponents and not have any slip-ups against anybody from the bottom two quadrants.

I think that’s doable for this team. Especially if they make a few adjustments.