In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the quiet June, some perspective on recruiting, a wild card to watch and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

A quiet June
A funny thing happened last week:

I went on vacation and Pitt didn’t get any commitments.

Weird, right?

Actually, it’s not that strange. I know the running joke is that Pitt news usually breaks when I go on vacation, and there’s some history of that, but things have been kind of quiet the last few times I went out of town. Really, I have to go back to June 2015 to find the last time there was a lot of action during a vacation.

That year I was in the Outer Banks from June 20-27 and Pitt got four commitments in that stretch. My wife was not pleased that my laptop was out so often, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

Anyway, last week was not like that. Pitt didn’t get any commitments; instead, the recruits were nice enough to wait a week before making news, which happened on Wednesday when Florida linebacker Derrveron Maxwell-Black committed to Pitt.

Actually, the news came on Thursday when Maxwell-Black announced his commitment; either way, it happened this week and not last week, which is the important part because it kept me out of the doghouse on vacation.

With Maxwell-Black on board, Pitt has 17 commitments in the class of 2021 but just three in June, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s all Pitt gets this month.

Which would be crazy, right? June is the month. The big month when all the commitments happen. Pitt got 14 commitments in June each of the last two years - not 14 combined; 14 in each year. That was spurred by the addition of spring official visits, but even before the NCAA changed that rule, June was a big month. Pitt got seven commitments in June 2017 and seven in June 2016, five in June 2015, seven in June 2014, 11 in June 2013, seven in June 2012, five in June 2011, five in June 2010, eight in June 2009 and five in June 2008.

You get the picture.

2007 was the last time Pitt had a June that was as “small” as this one is shaping up to be. Pitt only got three commitments in June that year, and this year is shaping up to be right around the same area.

Of course, we all know the caveat here: with the COVID-19 pandemic and quarantine and extended dead period cancelling all recruiting visits, this spring has been unlike any other. The result was 11 commitments in April and May - much more than I’ve ever seen Pitt get in those months.

So that’s the balancing act of 2020 (for the class of 2021): an overflow of spring commitments slowing to an atypical trickle in June. Years from now, we’ll all look back on this period and remember the different ways everything was thrown into upheaval, and while I doubt that recruiting will be high on that list, it will still be there, standing as yet another element of life that was turned upside down.

The value of patience
“Patience” probably isn’t the right word, but it’s good enough for a headline on this section.

Hopefully you saw our countdown of Pitt’s recruiting classes from 2003-17, which culminated this week with the top five classes. As I was putting that series of articles together, I was struck by a lot of things. Some of them will be covered in this column and others will have to wait for a future podcast or message board post or conversation over beers.

One thing that stood out was the class of 2017 and how good it has ended up looking three years later. The class included Paris Ford, Jaylen Twyman, Damarri Mathis, Jason Pinnock, Kenny Pickett, Cam Bright, Carter Warren, Deslin Alexandre, A.J. Davis and Kirk Christodoulou - all guys who were starters last season or will be this year (plus Gabe Houy and Carson Van Lynn; I expect at least one of those two to be in the starting lineup in 2020).

That’s quite a haul, and the class hasn’t experienced all that much attrition. Out of 24 recruits who signed in 2017, only seven have left the program so far and two of those - Albert Tucker and Jerry Drake - did so for medical reasons.

Overall, that class looks pretty good right now and has a chance to look really good after this season. I would guess that you if you put that list of players in front of most Pitt fans, they would endorse it.

But it wasn’t always that way. In February 2017, despite a couple Signing Day announcements that went Pitt’s way, there wasn’t a lot of enthusiasm for the class. Sure, Pitt got Paris Ford, the best player in the WPIAL that year, but the Panthers also missed on a lot of locals.

Lamont Wade, CJ Thorpe, Donovan Jeter, Kurt Hinish, David Adams, Joshua Lugg and Kenny Robinson. That’s seven guys who had offers from Pitt and all seven went somewhere other than Pitt.

2017 was also the year of the great (and failed) defensive end pursuit. Pitt hosted seven defensive end prospects for official visits in December and January but only signed one of them. That one - Deslin Alexandre - looks pretty good, but fans at the time couldn’t get past the whiffs on Victor Dimukeje, TyJuan Garbutt, Nathan Proctor, Kofi Wardlow, Guy Thomas and Zion Debose.

With misses on seven WPIAL targets and six primary defensive ends, the 2017 class felt like one big strikeout. But three years later, with the benefit of the passing of time, I was comfortable ranking that class at No. 4 on the countdown of all Pitt recruiting classes from 2003-17.

I guess what I’m saying is that it’s important to always keep some perspective on recruiting. Recruiting is vital to the success of the program, of course, and it absolutely merits attention from fans. But at the same time, it seems like a wise move to follow recruiting passionately while also keeping in mind that the final book on a class is not written for a few years.

Would Pitt’s class have been better with Wade and some of the others? Sure. No question about it (although the defensive end depth has recovered nicely and the safeties on the current roster look pretty, pretty good). But those misses weren’t the whole story of the class - a story that is still being written by Ford, Twyman, Pickett and the rest.

Sometimes the instant reaction is right
While keeping in mind that perspective is important, there have definitely been times when the Signing Day vibe is accurate, even with the benefit of the passing of time.

One class that comes to mind is the class of 2014. That class wasn’t a great class but it wasn’t terrible. Brian O’Neill was in that class, as were Avonte Maddox, Qadree Ollison, Alex Bookser and a host of guys who became solid starters and contributors.

But as with the 2017 class, there were some misses that really riled people up at the time. The worst misses are local misses, and the 2014 class had a trio of them:

Aliquippa cornerback Dravon Henry, Gateway safety Montae Nicholson and Washington running back Shai McKenzie.

Malik Hooker was in that class, too, but a lot of attention was focused on Henry, Nicholson and McKenzie because they took their recruitments into December and January, whereas Hooker was long gone to Ohio State by then.

Now, we’re only talking about a few guys here. It’s not like the 2017 class where Pitt missed on 13 recruits between WPIAL targets and defensive end prospects; this is a trio we’re discussing. But their commitments - Henry to West Virginia, Nicholson to Michigan State and McKenzie to Virginia Tech - stung Pitt and Pitt fans pretty badly.

And the passing of time didn’t do much to soothe that sting. McKenzie never did much at Virginia Tech and then left Blacksburg under a cloud of legal issues. But in 2016, when Pitt’s historically-good offense was counterbalanced by the Panthers’ historically-bad defense, it wasn’t hard to think about how Henry and Nicholson might have fit in.

Pitt was thin in the secondary in 2016. So thin, in fact, that Damar Hamlin wasted a redshirt (which he eventually got back) to step in at corner and even Maurice Ffrench took reps on defense in a few games after injuries decimated the depth.

Having Henry and Nicholson on the team as third-year players would have made a considerable difference that season. Both played as freshmen at their schools and earned all-conference honors over the course of their careers. Henry did miss the 2016 season due to injury, but that’s unpredictable; what’s easier to project is that those two players - Henry at cornerback, Nicholson at safety - would have helped the secondary that season.

Instead of getting Henry and Nicholson, Pitt’s defensive backs in the 2014 class were Maddox, Jalen Williams, Patrick Amara, Dennis Briggs and Phillipie Motley. Maddox was a good cornerback for Pitt. The others didn’t do much with the Panthers.

So that class of 2014 was one instance where the disappointment on Signing Day was probably deserved.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who is the wild card for the 2017 class?
Going back to the 2017 class for a minute…

In our ranking of the 15 Pitt classes from 2003-17, the class of 2017 came in at No. 4. That’s the highest ranking for a Pat Narduzzi class in the countdown and one that’s particularly interesting since the bulk of the class still has eligibility remaining, which means the group could look even better a year or two from now.

In fact, if we were to re-rank the classes next summer, the 2017 class would probably have a solid chance of moving up. But to do that, it would have to pass the No. 3 class on the list - the class of 2013.

That’s the group that was led by Tyler Boyd, James Conner and Dorian Johnson and featured a slew of contributors beyond those star players. That’s a tough group to get past; there are some very good players in the 2013 class and they had a lot to do with the success Pitt had in 2016 - particularly the wins over Penn State and Clemson.

But I don’t think it’s out of reach for the 2017 class. That group already has Paris Ford and Jaylen Twyman looking like they could be headed for All-America seasons and potential early NFL Draft selections. It also has Jason Pinnock and Damarri Mathis and Deslin Alexandre and Cam Bright and Carter Warren and Kirk Christodoulou and AJ Davis and a few more guys who could see their stock elevate this season.

If those guys continue to develop, the 2017 class will have a good case to make for being deeper than the 2013 class. But there’s one player I didn’t mention, and I left him out because he is the wild card, the single piece that could put the 2017 class over the top.

Kenny Pickett.

If Kenny Pickett’s senior season, his third year as Pitt’s starting quarterback, goes well, he could elevate the 2017 class from its current position as a pretty good class into one of the Panthers’ best of the century. The other classes around the 2017 class in our countdown, from 2016 at No. 5 to 2013 at No. 3, 2006 at No. 2 and 2007 at No. 1 - they’re all lacking in one key department:

Quarterback.

Not one of those classes produced a consistent starting quarterback. Sure, Kevan Smith in the 2006 class and Pat Bostick in 2007 made some starts and Bostick was the starter for some big wins, but it’s tough to say that quarterback was a strength of those classes.

If Pickett can really take his game up a level and become one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC - I’m talking top three or so - then Pitt should have a shot at one of its best seasons of the century. If that happens, the class of 2017 is going to be seen as one of the Panthers’ best this century, and a lot of it will be on Pickett.

What are the classes of classes?
The 2017 class was Narduzzi’s second full recruiting class at Pitt, and that got me thinking about the different “classes” of classes.

Like the transition class. I’ve talked about this a lot over the years. The transition class is the class that a new coach inherits from the guy he is replacing, and more often than not, the results are…less than good.

Pat Narduzzi inherited the 2015 class from Paul Chryst and quickly found himself without a quarterback, a tight end or a defensive tackle (those were the main departures in the coaching change). Narduzzi filled in the class, held onto Jordan Whitehead and got a quality grad transfer quarterback, but overall, a whole bunch of the guys in that group washed out.

It was even worse when Chryst inherited the 2012 class from Todd Graham. Chryst had to thin that particular herd considerably, either due to issues of talent or otherwise. A few good players emerged from the group that remained, but on the whole, that class was lost.

It wasn’t as bad as the class before it, though. Graham inherited the 2011 class from Michael Haywood, briefly, who got it from Dave Wannstedt. The class Wannstedt was building was a good one, but by the time Graham arrived, it had completely fallen apart, leaving Graham to cobble something together in roughly two weeks. That’s a recipe for failure, and that’s largely what that class turned out to be.

Wannstedt took over the 2005 class after Walt Harris left for Stanford, and that class actually worked out okay. But it was the exception (and it still had a ton of attrition).

On the opposite end of the spectrum is a coach's first full class. That’s the class after the transition class (for coaches who make it that far - ahem, Todd Graham). The first full class is built largely through the offseason before a new coach’s first games, and it’s often full of hype and momentum. Think of Wannstedt in the spring and summer of 2005, before he had to face the inconvenience of actually playing games: the excitement was as high as it has ever been, and that staff got a lot of players to buy in.

I don’t know if Chryst had the same level of hype or excitement in 2012 as he was building the 2013 class, but he managed to get Boyd, Conner, Johnson and the rest on board for what turned out to be his best class at Pitt. And Narduzzi’s 2016 class, which was led by Damar Hamlin, might have been surpassed by the class that followed it (2017), but it’s still pretty darn strong and played a big part in the Coastal Division title in 2018.

Finally, there’s a third segment of classes. I’ve been talking about transition classes and first full classes under those titles for a long time, but while Iv'e spent some time in the past discussing this third group of classes, I don’t know if I have a name for it yet.

Let’s call it the “post-success class.”

That’s probably too precise, because it’s not just about success; it’s about the results of a season more than whether those results are good or bad. Basically, there’s an old theory in recruiting that a season’s results will have the most impact on the next year’s recruiting class.

So when Pitt went 10-3 in 2009, it wasn’t the class of 2010 that got a boost; it was the next class, the class of 2011, that was built on the success of the 10-win season and was looking like Dave Wannstedt’s best group until he resigned and…you know the rest of that story.

I can give you a more recent example: the class of 2020. That one was built on the strength of the 2018 season, and while plenty of us sit back and scoff at a 7-7 record with some bad losses, the Pitt coaches were able to sell the Coastal Division title and resulting appearance in the ACC Championship Game. It helped to add Chris Beatty to the staff, but recruits bought into what the coaches were selling.

And that brings us to this season, a year that has as much potential to be on the 2009 level of success as any season we have seen in quite some time. If this Pitt team can go out and have a big year and keep this staff - which is a very strong recruiting staff - in place, then the next year’s class, the class of 2022, could really benefit from it.

ONE PREDICTION

2020 will be a top class
All this talk about ranking recruiting classes got me thinking about what a similar countdown could look like, say, five years from now.

Most of the classes on that list wouldn’t change; only two of the 15 we ranked have players with eligibility remaining, and while I have already said that I think the 2017 class could climb up a bit, I’m guessing the 2016 group is good where it is (we ranked it No. 5).

Of course, as you move down the line a few years, more of the recent classes can be added. And when that happens, say when we get to 2023 or 2024 or so, one recent class that I think will find itself comfortably near the top of the rankings is the class from 2020.

Those are the guys who just arrived on campus as freshmen, and while it’s way, way, way too early to state anything definitively about their careers since they haven’t, you know, actually played a game yet, I’m really bullish on the class.

You can almost take your pick of positions, and the chances are good that I think Pitt got a really good player.

Running back? Israel Abanikanda was named to the National Football Foundation’s 2020 Team of Distinction this week.

Wide receiver? Jordan Addison and Jaylon Barden both have a great chance of contributing this season.

Defensive line? Dayon Hayes is a stud from the City League.

Linebacker? On paper, Solomon DeShields, AJ Roberts and Bangally Kamara look like they might be Pitt’s best class of linebackers since the Panthers signed H.B. Blades and Clint Session in the 2003 class.

Those seven guys stand out the most to me, but there’s really good potential in the depth behind them. We’ll have to see how the defensive backs shake out - which ones play cornerback and which play safety - but that’s look like a good group. The offensive linemen are small in numbers but not in physical size. And the defensive ends beyond Hayes have good measureables.

Really, the only things missing are a quarterback (which was rectified with the transfer of Joey Yellen), a high school tight end (which is nothing new) and a defensive tackle.

I try to keep these things in check because I learned a long time ago to move cautiously when hyping up recruits. But I really think this bunch can be special.