It's all about the Blue-Gold Game in this week's 3-2-1 Column. Who are the players to watch? Who were the most notable draft picks? Which side will win? And what happens next?

All that and more in the 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The most notable selection
Spring camp is all but wrapped up, with just tomorrow’s Blue-Gold Game remaining as the final of 15 practices for Pitt.

Before the game happens, though, the rosters for the Blue and Gold teams had to be set. And to do that, Pat Narduzzi went back to something he has done before:

He held a draft.

You probably know the format by now, so we’ll cover it quickly: Narduzzi names head coaches (Jacob Bronowski for the Blue, Archie Collins for the Gold); those coaches draft the rest of the assistants; the resulting coaching staffs draft the seniors; the seniors draft the rest of the rosters.

That last part is the most interesting part, of course. It’s players picking players, the most veteran guys choosing who they want on their teams for the Blue-Gold Game.

You already know we’re going to read into that, and there was one selection that stood out to me the most.

The draft works by positions, so each “round” is actually a position and the round lasts until all players at that position are selected. So when Blue started the seventh round by taking Nate Yarnell, Gold was on the clock for its own quarterback selection. And who did the Gold captains - Gavin Bartholomew, Daniel Carter, Donovan McMillon and Rashad Battle - select?

They went with Eli Holstein over Christian Veilleux, and it’s pretty tough to not read a lot into that. We’ve talked throughout spring about Holstein pushing Veilleux for the No. 2 quarterback spot, and the battle for that job behind Yarnell has been one of the most interesting in camp, for a number of reasons.

After all, Veilleux was the No. 2 last season and started five games, including the upset win over Louisville that stands as the highlight - literally the only one - of the season.

But just as that was the lone highlight of the 2023 season for the team, it was also the lone highlight for Veilleux. He played well enough to win the next week at Wake Forest, save for a questionable slide call, but in his final three starts - losses to Notre Dame, Florida State and Syracuse - he completed 48.8% of his passes for 532 yards, two touchdowns and six interceptions.

Veilleux was pretty bad in those games, ultimately yielding the starting job to Yarnell.

Subsequently, Yarnell entered the spring as the No. 1 quarterback, and the addition of Holstein as a transfer from Alabama set up what looked to be an interesting competition behind him.

Now it seems like that competition is favoring Holstein. Offensive coordinator Kade Bell implied as much midway through camp, but we didn’t need any such implication from the players.

Bartholomew, Carter, McMillon and Battle said everything we needed to hear with their selection of Holstein.

We’ll all see how Holstein and Veilleux look tomorrow, and that will undoubtedly affect our perception of those guys for the rest of the summer. But it sure seems like Holstein impressed his teammates and coaches this spring.

Some notable names missing
Spring is a time for promise and hope, but it’s also a time for extreme caution with injuries.

Coaches simply aren’t going to put players at risk during the spring. If a guy is a little banged up, coaches will usually err on the side of caution, because while most coaches like to trumpet tough-guy mantras, they also know that there’s nothing gained by turning a small injury into a big one because you wanted to see how tough a guy is during sprig camp.

It’s a rite of spring for the list of walking wounded to grow quite long, and this year is no exception.

For whatever reason, though, the list of guys who won’t be participating tomorrow seems particularly disappointing. Maybe it’s because that list includes some players who are of particular interest.

Like Cruce Brookins. The redshirt freshman safety from Steel Valley has probably been talked about more than any other single player this spring, and from the looks of his helmet, which is overrun with stickers commemorating takeaways he has recorded in spring camp, he’s been making a lot of plays.

Hype and excitement were growing for Brookins, but we found out on Wednesday that he won’t be participating in the Blue-Gold Game (I still think he’s got to be the odds-on favorite for the Ed Conway Award as the most improved player on defense, though; more on that in a minute).

Three linebackers will be out, too, and I would say all three are of high interest: Solomon DeShields because he’s potentially one of the best overall players on the team; Jordan Bass because he’s a really promising young player; and Keye Thompson because he came to Pitt after a very productive career at Ohio and he should be in the Panthers’ two-deep.

Thompson isn’t the only transfer who will be missing the the Blue-Gold Game. Receivers Raphael Williams and Censere Lee and cornerback Tamon Lynum are also out, taking four likely two-deep options out of the mix.

Lee and Williams, in particular, will be missed; I don’t know how their transitions from FCS to the ACC will go this season, but with their speed and explosiveness, both guys probably would have had a chance to make plays in the Blue-Gold Game.

And then the offensive line is going to be down a few players, with Terrence Moore and Branson Taylor - the projected starters at center and left tackle, respectively - among those who won’t be participating (Ryan Jacoby, too, but he hasn’t practiced all spring).

I count 19 total players who are listed as “OUT” for the spring game, five more who are “PROBABLE” and one who is “QUESTIONABLE.” That’s a lot of guys with injury designations, and while some of the five probable players - Derrick Davis, Sean FitzSimmons, Francis Brewu, Nahki Johnson and Israel Polk - will probably play, not all of them will, which is too bad, since I would say all five of them are intriguing.

But this is the way it goes in the spring. Erring on the side of caution means intriguing players not getting any action in the Blue-Gold Game.

At least all the quarterbacks are available.

The Gold Team is -6.5
That’s the official Panther-Lair.com betting line for tomorrow’s Blue-Gold Game.

Gold -6.5

That’s what I came up with after looking at the rosters since the draft on Wednesday. I think there are a few things that really favor the Gold and, as always, it starts up front.

The Gold Team just has a major advantage in the offensive line. With Jackson Brown at left tackle, Jason Collier at left guard, Lyndon Cooper at center, BJ Williams at right guard and Ryan Baer at right tackle, Gold has three guys who started multiple games for Pitt last season and one guy who started games at N.C. State plus a redshirt freshman who transferred in from Cal.

The Blue team, by contrast, has a combined total of one career start: Terrence Enos started at right tackle in the blowout loss at Notre Dame. Among the Blue team’s starters - Enos, Tai Ray, Matt Altsman, Ryan Carretta and Isaiah Montgomery - only Enos, Altsman and Montgomery have appeared in any games, and that includes Altsman getting in against New Hampshire in 2021 for his lone career appearance.

That’s a major advantage to the Gold team, and I think the Gold defensive line, highlighted by ends Dayon Hayes and Sincere Edwards and tackles Sean FitzSimmons and Elliot Donald, will feast on the Blue offensive line.

Sorry, Nate Yarnell.

What’s more, I like the Gold team’s weapons, too. Quarterback Eli Holstein will be throwing to tight end Gavin Bartholomew and No. 1 pick Kenny Johnson, as well as Daejon Reynolds and Israel Polk. And the Gold running backs, Daniel Carter, Caleb Williams and Juelz Goff, very much feel like the kind of guys who can get a few touchdowns in a spring game.

Defensively, I think the back sevens are pretty evenly matched between Blue and Gold, I think. Each team’s safeties look strong - Jesse Anderson and Donovan McMillon for Gold; P.J. O’Brien and Javon McIntyre for Blue - and both teams have potential starters/rotational players at two of the three linebacker spots.

It really just comes down to the offensive lines, and Gold has a big advantage there. My first instinct was to set the line at Gold -8.5, but then Jim reminded me that El Barto will likely play limited snaps, so I shaved two points off the number.

Gold -6.5. Book it.

Bonus bet: The over/under on the total is 22.5. You know how these spring games go.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who was the most improved player on defense?
Every year Pitt presents the Ed Conway Award to the most improved players on each side of the ball. Sometimes that means something (John Petrishen had a good season after winning it in 2019; so did Paris Ford in 2019) and sometimes it doesn’t (Nahki Johnson won it last year, and in my personal favorite, Pat Bostick won it in 2009 and proceeded to redshirt).

The Conway winners will be announced tomorrow, and while we’ll be sure to not make too big a deal out of them, they’re still worth noting.

On defense, I think there are a bunch of options. Cruce Brookins is probably the most obvious; he went from taking a redshirt last season to being one of the most talked-about players this spring, with coaches and teammates bringing him up a lot.

By all accounts, he was all over the place throughout camp, making plays and really working hard on the field and in the film room. I’m not sure any single player made a bigger jump from last season to this spring, so he would be a pretty clear option.

I also can’t rule out Nahki Johnson repeating. He wouldn’t be the first player to get multiple Conway awards; T.J. Clemmings went back-to-back in 2013 and 2014, Tyrone Ezell got it in 2011 and 2013, Mike McGlynn went back-to-back in 2004 and 2005 and Clint Session was recognized in 2004 and 2006.

So that’s possible, and Johnson would make sense as a repeat winner after moving from defensive end to defensive tackle this offseason. By all accounts, that move has been a success and maybe will spark a breakthrough for the former four-star prospect who hasn’t done a whole lot in his first three seasons.

Redshirt freshman safety Jesse Anderson, true freshman defensive end Sincere Edwards, a whole bevy of young linebackers and even a veteran like Dayon Hayes or Brandon George could be candidates as well - there’s a lot of options on defense, and I think there’s a reason for that:

I think a lot of defensive players have stepped up this spring. Pitt came into the spring with seven open starting jobs on defense, and I think that put a little extra bolt of energy into the players.

Guys who spent the last few seasons stuck behind veterans at positions like defensive tackle or cornerback finally saw their opportunity in real time, and I think that brought out some higher levels of play.

So there are a bunch of options for the Conway award on defense, but I think Brookins will get the call.

Who are the standout players on offense?
If Pitt’s defense has a plethora of options, it feels like the offense is the opposite.

What’s the opposite of plethora? Deficiency, insufficiency, inadequacy, paucity, scarcity - all of those will do. I think I’ll go with paucity.

It feels like there’s a paucity of options on offense. Not necessarily because no one has improved; I’m sure guys have gotten better this spring. Rather, it feels like there’s a paucity of options on offense because it doesn’t seem like there have been many standout players at all on that side of the ball this spring.

I know the players and coaches are high on Kenny Johnson. The sophomore receiver was the first overall pick in the Blue-Gold draft on Wednesday, partially due to the depth at his X receiver position - there’s not much there - but mostly due to the fact that he’s pretty good and will be one of Pitt’s top receivers this season.

But at the same time, I can’t say there was a lot of talk about Johnson making big plays in practice.

Some of the transfers seemed to make a splash, but it wasn’t the kind of consistent practice-to-practice playmaking that came from defensive guys like Brookins.

Running backs? Tight ends? Every now and then you would hear that somebody made a play, but again, it wasn’t nearly consistent enough. And I can’t say I really heard much - good or bad - about the offensive line beyond the group having a solid starting five and questionable depth, so I’m not sure there’s an option there.

Maybe Nate Yarnell could get the nod as the most improved player. He entered spring camp as the No. 1 quarterback and held onto that position, which doesn’t necessarily prove improvement. But adapting to a new offense and apparently doing fairly well with it is a positive sign for him.

I really don’t know who the coaches will select for the Conway award on offense, and I think that’s part of the bigger problem on offense:

Nobody seems to be standing out at all.

Forget the most improved player on offense; how about determining who the standout players are?

This ties into my biggest concern for this offense. I just don’t know if they have the playmakers. I think they have a lot of guys who are fine, solid players. And I know the offensive scheme is designed to get players open and use tempo to keep defenses off-balance; if they can execute it, they should find some success.

But at some point, you need the players. You need guys to make plays. And I just don’t know about this group.

ONE PREDICTION

The next exodus
The next-odus? Has anyone used that before, in any setting? Probably not, since it’s not very good. I’ll keep workshopping it.

Anyway, spring camp officially ends tomorrow with the spring game. So what happens after that?

For the players, there is one more week of classes and then finals. For the coaches, it’s time to hit the road for recruiting evaluations.

But the bigger question is not necessarily how the players and coaches will spend their time over the next two weeks (for the players) or the next six weeks (for the coaches). It’s about who will be on the roster the next time we see this team together in one place.

Because it’s transfer portal season again.

The portal reopens on Tuesday, and while I don’t think we’ll see Pitt be all that active in terms of adding transfers, it’s a guarantee that the Panthers will lose some guys to the portal. By our count, the team is projected to be somewhere around seven scholarships over the 85-man limit if all freshmen arrive and all returning players return.

Pat Narduzzi said Thursday that Pitt might not be that many over the limit - “I don’t know if we’re five over, but we’re certainly a couple over and we’ll see how it goes” - but there’s no doubt that some attrition is coming.

It’s probably not tough to make a few educated guesses on where some of that attrition might come from. For most of the players who transfer, it will be a matter of coming to the conclusion that they’re just not going to get an opportunity at Pitt. Some veterans may have looked at spring camp as their last chance to crack the two-deep and, failing to do so, they turn their eyes to a different school.

If a player looks at the depth chart - even if it’s just their perception of how players have lined up in practice - and sees a lot of names ahead of his, he will probably choose to look elsewhere.

Honestly, I think Pitt’s going to see a bunch of guys take off, maybe even so many that the Panthers end up not just reaching the 85-scholarship limit but falling under it.

If that happens, I don’t know whether the coaches will give the extra scholarships to walk-ons or pursue transfer options; I suspect they won’t force the issue with transfers but will take a good option if they can find it.

We’ll see what happens with the numbers, but that’s the next big period on the college football calendar.

It goes from spring camp -> spring portal window -> June official visits.

So yeah, things aren’t slowing down.