In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Pitt hoops, quarterback transfers, running backs and more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Four down, 18 to go
Well, how about that Pitt men’s basketball team?

No, no, not the one that blew a 22-6 lead against Wake Forest at home. Not that Pitt men’s basketball team.

I mean the one that went to Chapel Hill on Wednesday night and beat North Carolina on the road. That Pitt men’s basketball team. How about that one?

Okay, let’s hit all the disclaimers: The ACC is down. UNC is down. It was one game among 30. It doesn’t overshadow the Wake Forest loss. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Now that we have that out of the way, can we all agree that was a heck of a game? Pitt trailed by 14 in the first half and nine at halftime before outscoring UNC 45-28 in the second half. I don’t care who you’re playing: if you beat somebody by 17 in a half, that’s a 20-minute blowout. And I don’t care what kind of injuries UNC is dealing with: if you blow out the Tar Heels in the Dean Dome, even for a half, that’s impressive.

Bigger than the win itself, though, was what we saw from Pitt in that second half, because it was a remarkable change from the first half - which itself had been a continuation from the second half against Wake Forest.

After building the 16-point lead against the Deacons, a switch flipped for Pitt, and it flipped in the wrong direction. They started slipping a bit. They weren’t working hard enough, they weren’t playing hard enough and they let Wake Forest back into the game. On my podcast this week, I talked about how this Pitt team, with the way it is currently constructed, simply can’t afford to do that. They have to work hard - very hard - every possession. They need to treat every trip down the court like the game is riding on it, and that goes for offense and defense.

Especially defense.

Say what you want about Jamie Dixon, and I know Pitt fans had plenty to say when he was here, but the greatest trick he ever pulled was convincing guys to want to play defense. That’s what he did for the better part of 13 years (with a few exceptions), and it led to a whole lot of success.

This team is still figuring that out, despite Jeff Capel’s best efforts to convey the message. Statistically, there are encouraging signs, like the fact that the Panthers are No. 2 in the ACC in points allowed per game. But that overall success doesn’t reflect the team’s inconsistency. Far too often, they have had lapses, stretches where they are not completely focused on defending; in the case of the Wake Forest game, that cost them.

We know this team has offensive limitations, but the Panthers can either compensate for those limitations or at least offset them a bit by playing hard on defense every trip down the court. They simply have to do it. And in the second half against UNC, they did it and made life very difficult on the home team.

Next comes the other part of the equation: making shots, which is much easier when you let the game come to you, as Capel said after the win on Wednesday night. Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens have been a mixed bag this season, but when they get a good feel for what is happening in the moment, some impressive things can happen.

I don’t think it’s necessarily accurate to talk about being selfish or some of those things, because I don’t think Johnson and McGowens are only looking out for No. 1 (or No. 2, as the case may be). I think sometimes they try to do too much because, in their view, that’s what’s best for the team. I believe their intentions are in the right place. I also believe they need to keep working to see how “what’s best for the team” could involve a number of actions - like finding teammates who are open for shots.

That gets a lot easier when Justin Champagnie is knocking down shots like he was in the second half on Wednesday night. Get something close to that from him every game, and Pitt is going to put itself firmly in the top half of the ACC, if not the top third. The Panthers are currently tied for sixth with N.C. State and Virginia Tech; given the state of the conference this season, they really should stay around that area - the middle third - all season. And I think they’ll have a chance to establish themselves as a top-half squad if they keep the focus on how what's important:

Working really, really hard on every defensive possession and committing to getting the best shot on offense.

Pickett is good enough
There’s a headline if I ever saw one.

I think if you’ve read these columns before, heard me on my podcast or radio show or simply interacted on the message boards, you know that I’m not as down on Kenny Pickett as others are or have been. I think he’s just fine. He wasn’t perfect this season, but he was far from the biggest issue on offense.

He was, as I said, good enough.

I wrote an article this week with some numbers from Pro Football Focus, and those numbers were eye-opening for me. I started with Pickett’s completion percentage, which was just okay at 61.6%. But then I looked at some of the stats PFF keeps, like adjusted completion percentage. That’s a good stat, and it’s one that is particularly relevant for Pitt’s 2019 season since it adjusts the completion percentage stat to account for dropped passes, among other things.

Pickett’s adjusted completion percentage was 75.2%, a significant jump from his ‘raw’ completion percentage of 61.6. And that adjusted completion percentage ranked No. 16 nationally among FBS quarterbacks with at least 370 drop-backs.

Names you might know that had similar adjusted completion percentages to Pickett: Ohio State’s Justin Fields (75.9%), Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence (76.1%), North Carolina’s Sam Howell (74.6%) and Virginia’s Bryce Perkins (71.2%).

I don’t think many people would have Pickett in the same conversation as Fields and Lawrence, and maybe they still shouldn’t, but the numbers aren’t too far off when you standardize their completion percentages to remove the penalty of dropped passes.

And yeah, dropped passes were a big issue this season. You already knew this. You watched the games and you saw multiple drops every game. According to PFF, Pickett was hurt by 36 drops this season, the second-most among FBS quarterbacks with at least 370 drop-backs. Percentage-wise, Pickett’s 7.7% drop rate ranked No. 7 nationally.

So yes, your suspicions were correct: Pitt’s pass-catchers dropped way too many passes this season. Most Pitt fans have conceded this.

But I think you have to take it a step further. I think that if you are going to accept that drops were a big problem and you are going to put a lot of blame on the pass-catchers, then you have to give something close to an equal amount of credit to Pickett, because those passes should have been caught.

Had they been caught, he would have finished with more than 3,098 yards and 13 touchdowns. That’s hypothetical, of course, but not exactly far-fetched given how many passes were dropped.

All of this is to say that if you think Kenny Pickett was the biggest issue with Pitt’s offense, or even if you put him among the top three, I disagree with you. Like I said, he wasn’t perfect, but he was good enough that if a few more of his passes had been caught, the outcomes of a few games this season could have been different.

I’m kind of bullish on the receiving corps for 2020; if that group does improve and the offensive line can take a couple steps forward, I don’t see any reason Pickett can’t have a pretty good senior season.

The backs might be good enough, too
I was reminded this week of a comment Pat Narduzzi made during the season, and it got me to thinking.

Narduzzi was talking at one point about Pitt’s running backs; paraphrasing, he said ‘I’d like to see what these guys would have done with some of the holes Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall were running through last year.’

Now, there are a few things we can read into that, but I’ll focus on the surface-level question:

What could the 2019 backs have done with the run-blocking that helped Ollison and Hall run for 1,000 yards each?

That’s an interesting hypothetical question to me, since the idea is not just a reflection on the offensive line but also on the running backs Pitt will be using in 2020. It’s tough to gauge, though; even PFF doesn’t have great stats readily available. I would need a “yards before contact" stat, and that’s not something I’ve been able to find.

But we can look at other comparisons. Avoided tackles; that’s an interesting stat to compare, because if A.J. Davis, Vincent Davis, V’Lique Carter and Todd Sibley had similar numbers in that stat category, then we can determine that the blocking was a significant difference in the effectiveness of the rushing attack - more so than the running backs themselves.

So let’s compare.

Now, obviously there’s a sample size issue to consider, and we’ll talk about that in a minute. But the numbers are pretty interesting, I think, because this year’s group wasn’t that much worse - and in some cases was better - than Ollison and Hall were in avoiding tackles.

So what’s the difference then? I would say it’s the blocking. If this year’s backs avoided tackles at similar rates as last year’s did, then we can loosely extrapolate that the 2019 group’s success in the open field was similar to the 2018 group.

And if we draw that conclusion, then what’s the other element? It’s the blocking.

I mean, it’s the volume, too. Ollison and Hall had more carries between the two of them in 2018 (347) than Davis, Davis, Carter and Sibley had in 2019 (301). That’s going to make an impact, and the matter of Pitt’s commitment to the running game has been discussed at length.

But I’ll be honest: looking at some of those numbers and thinking about the comparison of the two offensive lines (2018 and 2019) has me feeling a little more optimistic about the 2020 running backs. I think Vincent Davis finished the season on a high note with a really good showing in the Quick Lane Bowl. I think Todd Sibley can provide something if he comes back healthy. I think A.J. Davis can be a serviceable back, although maybe not a No. 1 option. And while I’m not sure what V’Lique Carter will be doing in 2020, I think he can have a role on offense.

Two questions remain unanswered, though: Will the offensive line get any better at run-blocking? And will Mark Whipple try a little more to establish the run?

Because for whatever amount of optimism I may have about the backs, if those two things don’t improve, then the individual players won’t matter.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Which four from the past?
Twitter does a lot of awful things. I mean, not the website itself - well, sometimes the website itself - but rather the things that direct and anonymous contact brings out of people.

That’s another topic for another day, but there are also some valuable things that happen on Twitter. Like this question from a Boston College blog:

The question itself is interesting, but as with a lot of the positive things on Twitter, it’s the ensuing discussion that is really the draw, because once that tweet got onto the timelines of Pitt fans, a pretty good conversation followed.

And since I am nothing if not a shameless thief, I wanted to bring the discussion to the 3-2-1 Column (after also using it on this week’s podcast; look, there’s only so much content to go around). I think it’s a really interesting question, because it does a couple things.

One, it gives you a chance to reflect on Pitt history and pick those guys you think can really, really help the most. There are plenty to choose from, so it gets pretty interesting.

Two, it makes you take a closer look at the current roster and decide who would really be the biggest addition, who would make the biggest impact on the 2020 roster.

Really, you have to start with the second part first, I think. Before you can pick from Pitt’s many all-time greats - and there are a lot of them - you have to decide where you need the most help. And I don’t think I’m going out on a ledge by saying that the most help is needed on offense.

Right off the bat, then, we’re dropping some serious all-time names. Hugh Green and Aaron Donald and Darrelle Revis would make an immediate impact on any time they join, and I’m going to say that the 2020 roster wouldn’t be better with them on it, but the truth is, this team has a very good defense coming back while also needing serious help on offense. So, as crazy as it is to say, I’m not taking any of those three guys.

Instead, I’m looking at offense, and the first name that comes to mind is Larry Fitzgerald. To me, he is a top-three player in Pitt history (Green, Tony Dorsett and Bill Fralic are the other candidates for top-three-designation, but I don’t know which one I would cut).

Fitzgerald is the greatest receiver in Pitt history and one of the best to ever play college or pro football, so he instantly upgrades the Panthers’ receiver room and creates a big-time legitimate threat in the passing game.

To go with him, I’m adding a running back. In my initial response to the question, I said LeSean McCoy, and while I don’t think you can go wrong with the second-best running back in school history, there’s an obvious better selection: the best running back in school history. Of course you take Dorsett, even though McCoy would also be a huge upgrade to a room that needs playmakers.

So I’ve got two skill guys, but now I need somebody to block for them. Fralic is an obvious choice; he’s the best lineman in school history. And then you can add one more. I first said Mark May, but Jimbo Covert would work as well. Take either one; just give me the linemen.

Now, I got a little blowback on that quartet when I tweeted it. The obvious concern was that I named McCoy instead of Dorsett. But equally loud were the calls for Dan Marino, to which I say: if Kenny Pickett has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, Tony Dorsett to hand off to and Bill Fralic and Mark May blocking for them, I think he’ll be just fine.

I already said that I think Pickett is good enough, and while Marino is Marino, if I’m looking at what would really take this team to another level, I think I would prioritize the receiver, the running back and the linemen.

That’s my four. That’s who I’m taking and I think I would do pretty well with that group. I’m sure you all think that’s brilliant and we won’t have any disagreements at all.

Will Pitt get another transfer quarterback?
No. Of course not. Getting two transfer quarterbacks in one season is pretty unlikely, if not out and out preposterous. But let’s talk about it anyway.

The news came out this week on Wednesday that Notre Dame quarterback Phil Jurkovec is leaving the Irish after two seasons. Let’s pretend you’ve been living under a rock for the last four years and remind you why that’s of note:

Jurkovec was a four-star prospect in the class of 2018 at Pine-Richland who chose the Irish over offers from just about everybody, including Pitt. He committed to Notre Dame while Matt Canada was still offensive coordinator, so you can’t blame that recruiting loss on Shawn Watson; the truth is, he was always going to Notre Dame.

Now, after playing in eight games over the last two seasons, he’s leaving Notre Dame. And because a former four-star prospect from the WPIAL who enters the transfer portal is always going to be of interest to Pitt fans, the news got people talking:

Could Pitt bring Jurkovec home?

I won’t claim to have the answer, but let’s be honest, the answer is ‘probably not.’ And I say that for a few reasons.

For starters, Pitt just brought in a transfer quarterback. Joey Yellen, who is joining the Panthers after spending one year at Arizona State, got to campus and started classes this week. He may or may not have to sit out a season - the NCAA will decide on that - but he’s here and ready to compete for the starting job in 2021, at the very least.

So that’s a deterrent for any other potential transfer quarterback looking to find a new home.

Here’s the other one: What is Jurkovec looking for? He already picked Notre Dame, a school with a fair amount of national prestige and, they tell us, yearly expectations of reaching the College Football Playoffs. If he’s still thinking the same things on those matters, then you’d have to think he’s still looking somewhere other than the hometown school.

Maybe somewhere like Michigan, where Shea Patterson (himself a transfer) is out of eligibility, leaving an open competition. That seems like the kind of situation Jurkovec could be looking for. Or Oklahoma, where Jalen Hurts (hey look: another transfer) is out of eligibility, leaving an open competition.

My biggest takeaway from the Jurkvoec transfer news, though, is that it’s just another confirmation of something we’ve talked about in this column a lot over the last six months (or more): when quarterbacks don’t see a clear path to starting, they transfer. It’s not an indictment on those guys or saying they are scared of competition - it’s just reality.

If you’re a young quarterback and you don’t think the opportunity is there, then you bounce. And because it has gone from being a phenomenon to a trend to seemingly the standard operating procedure, the transfer quarterback market will continue to grow as a viable supply line at the most important position on the field.

The game has changed when it comes to recruiting quarterbacks. Under Pat Narduzzi, Pitt brought in three transfer quarterbacks prior to this season (granted, that includes Jeff George Jr., but three is more impressive than two, so I’m including him). Add in Yellen, and you can see the Pitt staff actively working to continue tapping into that pipeline.

So I would imagine they’ll have a conversation with Jurkovec - they’d be silly not to - but I have a hard time seeing him end up at Pitt. He’s a free agent now, a recruit for the second time, and he should have plenty of good opportunities. Fortunately for the Panthers, they’ve got some good young quarterbacks on the roster and a transfer with a lot of potential.

ONE PREDICTION

Capel will hit double digits
…in years

You know, if you’re going to give a coach a contract extension, you should try to do it on the day he takes his team on the road and knocks off a blue blood.

That’s what happened on Wednesday, of course, when Pitt started the day by announcing that Jeff Capel had received a two-year contract extension to keep him with the Panthers through the 2026-27 season, and Capel’s team made the deal worth it that night with a win over North Carolina in the Dean Dome.

We already talked about that game, but we haven’t discussed the contract extension, and since it’s a big deal, let’s address it here.

I say Capel plays out the extent of the deal.

Is this a hot take? Maybe, mostly because it seems like a rarity for a coach to finish a contract. When the extension was announced, there were plenty of responses that pointed out the obvious: contracts don’t mean a ton in college sports. Coaches leave for other jobs and schools fire coaches, and the contracts have very little impact on those things one way or the other. Granted, maybe an administrator has a little pause about firing a coach if the buyout is huge, or maybe that number becomes a sticking point for a new school to hire a coach, but if a coach wants to leave or the school wants to fire him, it’s going to happen. They’ll find a way (see also: Stallings, Kevin).

We all know that. We all understand it. We are all adults and we have all watched college sports enough to know that contract extensions are far from guarantees.

We get it. I’m just going to choose to ignore it. I’m going to say that I believe Capel wants to build something at Pitt. Not necessarily because I have any real insight on Capel’s thought process or his family or his life in Pittsburgh or his relationships with Pitt administration - I don’t know anything, really, about any of those topics, all of which are quite relevant in the discussion.

I also don’t know if, given the opportunity, he would return to Duke in the event of Mike Krzyezewski’s retirement. My guess is that he would go if he could, because when you have an alma mater like Duke and the opportunity presents itself, you take it. There’s also the question of whether Duke would pursue him, but I’d think that if Capel is successful enough to make everyone want him to spend 10+ years at Pitt, then he’d be attractive to the Blue Devils.

That’s always going to be the wild card, just like those other elements I mentioned that we really don’t have insight on.

But I’m going to ignore all of it, because what good comes from worrying about those things? What good comes from having the instant reaction of, “Yeah well contracts don’t mean anything”? What’s the benefit of that? Does it give you some kind of “realist” cred? Or is it just cynicism? Whatever it is, I don’t see the upside of it.

On the other hand, I think it’s perfectly fine and reasonable and even more enjoyable to sit back, look at the extension, consider the notion that Pitt proposed it and Capel accepted it and say, “This is a good thing.” Because it is a good thing. Capel was a great hire for Pitt two years ago and he continues to be a great coach for the program. In many ways, he was exactly what the Panthers needed when they hired him, and he has more or less delivered.

Now, it’s much easier to write that in the aftermath of the win at North Carolina Wednesday night. I will say, in my defense, that I had already planned out this section of the column prior to that game, but let’s be honest: if I was writing this with Pitt on a two-game losing streak, it would be a tougher sell.

That’s beside the point. The point is, Capel’s got a contract to keep him at Pitt for 10 seasons. We can set the cynicism aside for just a moment and call it what it is:

A good thing.