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In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the latest Pitt hoops departures, where Jeff Capel goes from here, spring camp roster moves and more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The attrition continues
There was some attrition from the Pitt hoops roster this week, and while it’s difficult to call it unexpected - really, there would only be two or three names who would really qualify as surprises - it’s still worth discussing.
The first was Kham Davis, who leaves the team after spending two seasons in Pittsburgh. He started 23 games as a freshman two years ago but saw his playing time decrease considerably with the arrival of the Panthers’ two stud freshman guards, Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens. Throw in a grad transfer whose specialty - defensive play - overlapped directly with what Davis did best, and you end up with 26 games played, zero starts and an average of 13 minutes per game.
Davis also dealt with a concussion late in the season that kept him on the bench for the final three regular-season games and the two ACC Tournament games, but the writing was clearly on the wall:
Even if Sidy N’Dir doesn’t return for a sixth year, Davis probably wouldn’t have much of a role going forward - possibly seeing even less playing time than he did this season.
Departure No. 2 came on Wednesday in the person of Malik Ellison. This one was a little less expected, but still not exactly a shocker. He also fell behind a trio of players at the spots where he could have helped and eventually found himself playing a mix of forward spots, which wasn’t really in his wheelhouse.
By the end of the season, he had put in some nice performances, mostly distinguishing himself as someone who actually wanted to rebound. But he only topped 21 minutes six times in ACC play and just once in the final eight games (he played 32 minutes in the ACC Tournament loss to Syracuse, making 2-of-5 field goals and grabbing seven rebounds in that one).
Simply put, Davis and Ellison weren’t expected to be significant contributors in the upcoming season. The players Jeff Capel has already brought to Pitt and the players he will bring in the next few months will get the minutes and the opportunities to lead the team.
We all knew this was going to happen. We knew there would be considerable attrition this offseason; it’s pretty standard, quite frankly, for the offseason between a new coach’s first and second years as players come to terms with where they fit on the roster. I doubt that Capel sat down and told Davis or Ellison to leave; rather, those players probably came to their conclusions themselves.
They’re not dumb. If you and I can watch from the stands and tell that a guy isn’t going to play, then the players who are actually in the locker room and in practices can certainly tell what the realities are.
In his own image
From the past to the future…
With those two players gone, the current projected scholarship roster for the 2019-20 season stands as follows:
Kene Chukwuka
Samson George
Terrell Brown
Xavier Johnson
Trey McGowens
Au’Diese Toney
Justin Champagnie
Karim Coulibaly
Gerald Drumgoole
That’s nine players, with the probability of at least one more departure set at “high.” There seems to still be some possibility of N’Dir returning, but whether it’s eight or nine, the bigger point remains:
Capel has a lot of spots to fill for next season’s roster.
There’s no requirement to have a full scholarship roster, of course. Pitt played with less than 13 last year, even before Shamiel Stevenson and Peace Illegomah decided to leave midseason. So Capel doesn’t have to add four or five more players.
But you’d have to think he will. Or at least he’ll try to get close.
Let’s say N’Dir doesn’t come back for a sixth year and someone else decides to leave. That would put eight players on the scholarship roster. And, for the sake of argument, we’ll say the additional attrition comes from a player who was brought to the roster by Kevin Stallings.
Of the eight remaining scholarship players, six would be Capel additions. And if he brought in, say, four more players, it would be 10 out of 12 (or 11 out of 13 if he shoots the moon and uses all of the available spots).
That’s a huge percentage of Capel players. Like I said, you usually see attrition and turnover between Year 1 and Year 2 with a new coach, but to get to this point so quickly is pretty remarkable.
I can’t say all of it is Capel’s intention. He is probably anxious to bring in his preferred players - he commented on the overall talent of the team multiple times during the season - but as I said before, I don’t think he pushed anyone out the door.
Regardless of how it has happened, there’s room to fill out the roster and the matter of what to do with those spots. I think most agree that the top priorities are a center, a point guard and a shooter. Karim Coulibaly is a big man and Gerald Drumgoole is a nice shooter, but you’d have to think Capel would like to find experienced players who have those skill sets and an experienced point guard.
That probably means grad transfers or, at the very least, junior-college players, and we’ll talk in a second about that. But overall, my guess is Capel looks for a balance in those remaining spots: add one more high school prospect to build for the future and then two or three grad transfers or JUCO’s to help right now.
Really, get the right duo or trio of graduate transfers, and you could push this team to the level of being respectable in the ACC. That’s easier said than done, of course, but it’s not out of the range of possibility. Having talent like Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens creates a foundation, and a couple key pieces can make a significant difference.
Get a big man. Get a shooter. And get a point guard to back up Johnson. If Capel can pull that off, he’s going to have a team that will win more ACC games than the last three combined.
The greatest trick Capel ever pulled
Of those three spots - big man, shooter and point guard - I think the first one is going to be the toughest.
It’s not that Pitt can’t offer playing time to a center. Terrell Brown and Kene Chukwuka are slated to return to the roster, but neither had a death grip on the job last year, given the fact that the coaches were still swapping starters even late in the season.
There’s an opportunity, to be sure, particularly if more attrition happens. And even if it doesn’t, Capel and company have to be telling prospective targets that a chance to shine in the ACC is waiting to be had at Pitt.
But here’s the problem, as I see it: Pitt’s not the only school that can offer playing time at center. In fact, if a legitimate center comes on the market as a grad transfer, he’ll likely have multiple suitors from multiple conferences, including the ACC. And if there are multiple opportunities, then something other than playing time becomes a factor.
Something like, I don’t know, chances at an NCAA Tournament bid.
If a player like Nate Sestina from Bucknell or Derrik Smits from Valparaiso wants to experience March Madness with a chance to play beyond the first weekend - heck, the first day - then there are going to be options available. That’s probably why Sestina chose to go to Kentucky despite having some contact with and interest in Pitt.
At Pitt, that opportunity is not exactly a lock, not yet at least. Maybe with the right pieces, Pitt can get back to the Tournament this season, but chances are, those travel plans will have to wait another year. And while Capel can sell a player on being the “right piece” to get the Panthers back into the postseason. But if a priority target has the option between a 95% chance of making the Tournament and being “the right piece” to turn a 25% chance into a 65% chance, I’m guessing he would opt for the former. Like Sestina did.
Now, Capel did get N’Dir to take a chance on Pitt. He came as a grad transfer from New Mexico State and chose the Panthers when their chances of making the Tournament were even less than they will be this season. But convincing a lightly-recruited defensive guard to get exposure in the ACC is different from pulling a top center target away from teams that have a higher probability of playing beyond the conference tournament.
So if Capel can find a big-time grad transfer big man and convince him to come to Pitt, that would probably have to rank among his greatest accomplishments, maybe rivaling last year’s grab of Johnson, McGowens and Toney.
I don’t know if Capel can do it. But if he can…
TWO QUESTIONS
Is spring the time for mixing and matching?
Switching to football, one topic of conversation on Thursday was the linebackers, and I think there’s something to discuss there.
It started with Saleem Brightwell. Brief recap: Brightwell came to Pitt to play outside linebacker and learned the “Money” linebacker, which is the position that plays to the short side of the field. That’s where he was until 2017, when Quintin Wirginis’ suspension and then injury led the coaches to move Brightwell to the middle; he started all 12 games there.
Last season, he moved back to the Money and rotated with Elijah Zeise throughout the season. Entering spring camp, we all assumed he would be the starting Money linebacker since Zeise has now graduated. But on Thursday, Brightwell was getting reps at middle linebacker, and after practice, Pat Narduzzi said that’s a more “natural” position for the redshirt senior from New Jersey.
Now Brightwell, who was a Money linebacker, is working in the middle and competing with Elias Reynolds, who took over for Wirginis last season when he got hurt.
Okay. But what does that do to the outside spots? Brightwell was battling redshirt junior Chase Pine at Money; who’s his competition now? Narduzzi said that Phil Campbell, who moved this offseason from safety to the “Star” linebacker - that’s the one on the wide side of the field - is now getting work at Money as well.
Does that leave redshirt sophomore Cam Bright as the favorite at Star? Narduzzi says no; Campbell is still working there as well.
So you’ve got Brightwell going Money->middle->Money->middle, Pine going Money->middle (he played there last year and started the Sun Bowl)->Money and Campbell going safety->Star->Money/Star. Reynolds is pretty set in the middle and Bright is pretty set at Star, but the competition sounds to be considerable enough that neither is set at the top of the depth chart.
Mixing and matching, moving and shaking - it’s like a game of Yahtzee: the coaches are putting the five linebackers into a can and tossing them out to see who lands where. But that’s what spring camp is for: there’s no game for roughly five months, so try different things, get different looks and see how they shake out.
If you consider Bright at the Star, Reynolds in the middle, Pine at Money, Brightwell at middle or Money and Campbell at Star or Money, you’ve got nine potential configurations, by my count. But really, the goal is to find the three best players and figure out the positions from there. You’d think either Reynolds or Brightwell will be in there, since they’re the middle linebackers, but other than that, it could be any combination of Bright, Campbell and Pine at the outside spots (and Brightwell, too, if you want him at the Money).
By the time you get to August, you would like to have a pretty clear idea of who is going to play where. You’d like to spend less time mixing and matching and more time getting locked in. So if spring camp seems like a jumbled mess from time to time, rest assured: that’s the intention.
I would add this: I do think it should be a pretty athletic group of linebackers this season. There has been a lot of talk about speed, and as long as these linebackers know what they’re doing, they should be able to play as fast as, if not faster than, previous groups we’ve seen at Pitt.
How careful is too careful?
Or, put another way, how paranoid is too paranoid?
Bit of a popular topic this week: is Pitt too paranoid when it comes to letting NFL scouts into practice?
The topic came up when an anonymous scout identified Pitt as one of the more difficult schools to deal with when it comes to visiting practice and evaluating potential prospects. That got some attention and then Pat Narduzzi was asked about it this week. His answer was, in unique Narduzzi fashion, illuminating and, well, not.
“I did read that, and from what it sounds like it’s one guy’s assessment and whatever. I think there’s a lot of scouts who are awful happy when they come in here and get a lot of work and they make no mistakes on our guys and they get plenty of time to look at what we have, but I’ll tell you this from the other side of the story I’ve seen things come out and they can say they’re all good - I’ve had reporters tell me before the game…say ‘Hey Coach, watch out for this today’ and I’m like, ‘Woah.’ So there’s things happening and you guys know that - loose lips sink ships and paranoia is real and who do you trust? It comes down to that, maybe that guy is not trusted very much, obviously he won’t put his name on it, so he’s probably not trusted very much.”
There’s a lot in there. Or rather, there are some important nuggets buried in there that shed some light. Let’s start with the original question: is Pitt tough for NFL scouts to deal with? I can’t say that I’ve asked any NFL scouts myself, although I’ve seen plenty at practice in August. I can say this, though: Pitt is very particular about who comes in to watch practice. They make sure that they people who visit practice are relatively free of potential, um, conflicts of interest.
Pitt also wants you to know, very specifically, that the things you see at practice are expected to stay at practice. That’s part of the deal when it comes to watching practice. And I’m not talking about media here; I’m talking about the people - players’ families, high school coaches, NFL scouts, etc. - who watch the entirety of practice.
But there’s another part in that quote that I think is worth mentioning. Narduzzi, loosely and vaguely, references hearing from a reporter about something to “watch out for” in the upcoming game. That reminded me of a story I heard from a coach once. The coach said he was talking to an NFL scout who was attending the team’s practice and, in the course of conversation, the scout happened to mention something injury-related that he had seen at another college practice that week.
The coach was shocked. Not because he wouldn’t like to have that info, but rather because he couldn’t help but thinking, “If you’re telling me this, what are you going to say about my team at your next stop?”
I think it only takes one experience like that to make a coach quite paranoid. And while neither the NFL scout in that story or the “reporter” in Narduzzi’s story likely revealed any info out of malice or an attempt to give a competitive advantage, the “loose lips” made an impression.
Ultimately, these coaches want to control everything they can, not necessarily because they’re control freaks - although that’s part of it - but because they believe that no threads can be left hanging.
So does Pitt have a reputation of being tough on NFL scouts? Like I said, I don’t know. But I know that, in Narduzzi’s view, his team’s best chance of winning football games includes, at least in part, limiting and controlling those who watch his team practice.
JUST ONE MORE THING
You can finally talk about uniforms
You hear it all the time:
"All Pitt fans want to talk about is uniforms and on-campus stadiums!"
Just yesterday I had someone offer their authoritative opinion on, according to them, the most popular topics on the message boards (born, no doubt, of spending too much time on the message boards) and sure enough, uniforms and on-campus stadiums were right there at the top of the list.
You take guff for this constantly, Pitt fans. It comes from Pitt fans and non-Pitt fans alike. They all tell you that you worry too much about uniforms and on-campus stadiums, that fashion and an impossible dream of an Oakland venue matter more to you than winning football games does.
Well, guess what? This weekend and for the next week, you get a reprieve on the criticism about uniforms, at least. You get to talk about them because it's finally happening: Pitt's finally making a big move with the branding of the school's athletic programs and uniform talk will deservedly be a primary topic.
Now, I can't say I know what the new uniforms - all of Pitt's sports teams are getting new 'fits - but I'm pretty confident fans will like them. I say that knowing full well that you're never going to please everyone, and there will certainly be fans who take issue with this element or that element of the new look.
But I went into the last uniform unveiling in the spring of 2016 with a pretty clear idea of what the new look was going to be, and I knew fans weren't going to be happy. I knew that the changes were going to be relatively minor compared to what a majority of fans wanted, because I knew that a majority of fans wanted something like we have seen in the "retro" uniforms and that wasn't what they were going to get.
On Sunday, they'll get it. I can say that with confidence. I don't have any idea what these new uniforms are going to look like, but I know they're going to get the colors right - assuming your idea of the "right" colors looks something like that picture above.
Beyond that, I'm really interested in what they come up with for secondary "marks." There has to be a new Panther logo incorporated somewhere so the Dinocat can finally be put out to pasture. And as someone else pointed out, an official script version of the word "Panthers" would be a nice addition.
There are some very interesting possibilities for what Pitt can do with this branding opportunity.
Whatever it turns out to be, we'll all pore over photos and graphics and images after the unveiling on Sunday, and here on the site, we'll have plenty of coverage from the unveiling. The uniforms will be legitimate news; there will be no shame in talking about them.