In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the fun of winning, how Pitt is getting it done on both sides of the ball, the key to Saturday's game against Cal and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The fun thing about winning

I don’t know what the crowd will be at Acrisure Stadium this Saturday. I know that it should be around 55,000. I also know that it probably will come in around 48,000 announced. And the actual butts-in-seats will likely be less.

I’m not sure what Pitt fans would be waiting on or why they might be reluctant to attend this game. The Panthers are a ranked 5-0 team with a top-10 offense, a cadre of exciting skill players and a defense with a flair for the dramatic, and they’re facing a team who hasn’t played in Pittsburgh since October 1965.

So I think there’s a whole lot in favor of going to this game. But this isn’t a pitch to sell tickets (although Pitt is always welcome to buy some ad space here on the old website. Call me).

No, this isn’t about selling tickets. It’s about the overall Vibe. Which is pretty damn exciting right now.

Think about this past Sunday afternoon, when more than a few eyes were waiting for the Associated Press poll to come out. When was the last time you paid Pitt-centric attention to that? Not since early in the 2022 season, at the latest.

Or think about how natural it has become to see Pitt players show up on the ACC’s weekly honor roll. It’s now a running joke that the ACC Rookie of the Week award should be renamed after Eli Holstein, and this past week provided a new one when Desmond Reid - running back Desmond Reid - was named ACC Receiver of the Week.

Or simply think about how Saturday’s game Matters. How there are only 12 undefeated teams in the country, which means Pitt is one of the final dozen teams with a 0 in the loss column. How Pitt is ranked No. 22, which means there are quite a few teams who will be watching to see the Panthers’ outcome because of its impact on the poll.

How a win on Saturday could get Pitt to 6-0 with a possible jump into the top 20 ahead of a week off.

How a win on Saturday could get Pitt to the halfway point of the season with a perfect record, and how that’s the kind of thing that gets people to sit up and take notice.

Pitt’s game against Cal on Saturday matters. It really does. And that’s pretty cool.

Because it wasn’t all that long ago that Pitt was playing games that didn’t matter. The Panthers started 1-4 last season, and it probably didn’t even take that long to put them firmly in the column of not mattering.

It didn’t matter that Pitt beat Louisville, at least not in terms of the perspective of the Panthers. And it didn’t matter when Pitt blew it at Wake Forest or came up just short against Florida State or got demolished in South Bend and embarrassed in the Bronx.

It didn’t matter that the Panthers beat Boston College and lost to Duke. None of it mattered. None of it was relevant. Every one of those was just another game in the great mass of college football inventory, 2023 edition.

Games were played. Final scores were logged. And no one really paid much attention.

This year, attention is being paid. That’s what happens when you’re 5-0. And if you keep winning, the games will keep meaning more. They’ll matter more.

And while winning can bring increased pressure, which often leads to increased feelings of dread for some fans, that’s part of it, too:

The games mean more because there’s more riding on them. Yes, that means there’s more to lose in the event of, well, a loss.

But I think that’s a lot better than the games not mattering at all.

Getting it done on offense

If you have read this site or listened to any of our podcasts or anything like that for basically the last 20 years, you probably know that sometimes I get stuck on a stat.

This usually happens early in the week. I’ll be researching things and come across a stat that I just can’t get out of my head. So it ends up bleeding over to the podcasts and, eventually, Friday’s 3-2-1 Column.

So here we are, talking about the red zone again.

I really like digging into red zone stats. I like it because the NCAA does a lousy job with them. Well, the NCAA does a fine job tracking red zone stats - they just do a lousy job of figuring out what to do with those stats. According to the NCAA, a touchdown and a field goal are equal outcomes of a red zone possession.

But we all know they’re not equal. They’re quite different, with one being worth at least twice as much as the other. If your offense drives into the red zone but only gets a field goal, was it as successful as if the offense had scored a touchdown?

Of course not. I would even contend that a field goal is a failure of an offensive red zone possession, because once you get inside the 20, you should score a touchdown.

And if we look at red zone success by that standard, Pitt is pretty good.

Really good, in fact.

The Panthers have gone into the red zone 24 times this season, and they have scored touchdowns 18 times. Only 11 teams in the country have more red zone touchdowns, and Pitt ranks No. 20 nationally in its percentage of red zone drives that end in touchdowns. We can get into the how and why Pitt scored those touchdowns - 13 have been passes, five have been runs, Desmond Reid has scored three and all three were passing plays, etc. - but the important part is this:

Pitt’s offense has been getting it done. When the Panthers get inside the 20, they’ve been taking care of business.

And that’s the thing I keep coming back to with this offense:

They find a way to get it done. Down 21 late in the third quarter with 10 yards of offense in the first 10 minutes of the second half? Pitt comes out and scores not one, not two, but three consecutive touchdowns and then adds a field goal to ice a road win at Cincinnati.

Trailing by 10 with five minutes left in the game and only four net yards of offense in the second half? Pitt puts up 152 yards and two touchdowns on 11 plays in a little over three minutes to come back and beat West Virginia.

Dealing with a pesky North Carolina team that is looking to rebound from back-to-back brutal losses? Pitt answers literally every UNC offensive score with a touchdown on the very next possession to take a 10-point win in a place the Panthers have literally never won before.

Every single time, Pitt’s offense has gotten it done. Eli Holstein has been the catalyst, of course, but he is making the most of his assembled cast of characters (seven players in total have caught touchdown passes this season). And it doesn’t hurt that he has done some heavy lifting himself (Holstein is in the top 15 in the ACC in rushing and top 10 in rushing touchdowns).

Eventually, the magic will probably run out. There will come a time when they won’t be able to come up with that extra play. Reid or Konata Mumpfield or two-time hero Daejon Reynolds will be just short of making the big catch. Maybe Holstein will slip or make a mistake or just miss a throw. It will happen. This offense won’t be perfect.

And to be honest, they haven’t been perfect thus far. There were plenty of moments of imperfection in Chapel Hill on Saturday. But what this offense has been able to do - most recently against UNC - is overcome the imperfections with big plays when they were needed most.

That’s how Pitt has gotten to 5-0, and while it might not happen every week, I think this offense will keep finding ways to get it done more often than not over the next seven games.

Getting it done on defense

This goes for the defense, too.

Look, the Panthers’ defense isn’t quite as lauded as the team’s offense. Whereas the Pitt offense ranks No. 4 nationally in total offense and No. 6 nationally in scoring offense and No. 6 nationally in passing offense and No. 50 nationally in rushing offense (that’s yards per game; Pitt is No. 11 nationally in yards per attempt), the defense doesn’t quite have those numbers.

Pitt’s defense ranks No. 69 in total defense, No. 44 in rush defense, no. 95 in pass defense and No. 78 in scoring defense.

Not great numbers.

And yet, there’s something about this defense. Just like the offense seems to have a knack for finding ways to get it done, so too has Pitt’s defense been quite opportunistic this season. Not quite in terms of turnovers - they have eight this season - but more in terms of rising to the occasion, finding those moments when a play absolutely needs to be made and then making that play.

Remember the red zone stats? Pitt’s defense is right up there with the offense in having success inside the 20. The Panthers have allowed opponents to score seven touchdowns on 16 red zone drives; that’s a 43.8% red zone touchdown success rate that ranks No. 21 nationally. And Pitt’s 3.6 points allowed per red zone possession ranks inside the top 20 in the nation.

That’s really good. That’s opportunistic - and in a way, it’s anti-opportunistic, since Pitt’s defense prevented the opponent from taking advantage of an opportunity that presented itself.

This was a big deal on Saturday at North Carolina. Twice the Tar Heels drove not just into the red zone but inside the 10, and twice Pitt turned them away with zero points.

There’s a separate conversation to be had about why UNC coach Mack Brown went for it on fourth down inside the 10 twice (I think he believed field goals would not beat Pitt, and I think he was right about that). But Brown decided to do it on fourth-and-2 and fourth-and-1, and both times, the Panthers stepped up.

They have made a habit of doing that. And not just in the red zone.

So far this season, Pitt’s defense has allowed opponents to score 13 offensive touchdowns in five games. That’s pretty good, I think, and it’s even more impressive when you break it down by half:

The Panthers have only allowed six second-half offensive touchdowns this season. West Virginia was the only team to score multiple second-half touchdowns against Pitt, and the Mountaineers are also the only team to score an offensive touchdown on the Panthers in the fourth quarter. In fact, West Virginia is the only team to score a point on Pitt in the fourth quarter this season.

Kent State, Cincinnati, Youngstown State and North Carolina all went scoreless in the final 15 minutes.

So on one hand, you’ve got all these yards allowed and the other stats that don’t look great for Pitt’s defense; on the other hand, you’ve got 10 fourth-quarter points allowed (WVU also scored a field goal) through five games.

Now, I’ll add that every team Pitt has faced this season has scored a third-quarter touchdown, so it’s not all perfect after halftime. But if your defense can pitch a shutout in the fourth quarter in four out of five games, then you’re going to have a real chance at winning just about every time you take the field.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What can sink this team?

Can you always rely on “getting it done?” Even Larry the Cable Guy realized there’s an expiration date on that (I hope).

Look, I think the question is probably lingering in the back of the minds of more than a few Pitt fans. Every win brings excitement and hype, but it also increases the potential for disappointment.

Put another way, the cliff that Pitt can fall from gets higher every time the Panthers win.

It’s the growing sense of dread I mentioned earlier, and while we won’t dwell on that, it’s probably useful to discuss some of the areas that could potentially sink Pitt in an upcoming game or, in a more positive sense, the areas where Pitt needs to get better in order to keep the winning going.

Offensively, Eli Holstein has to protect the ball. He has only had three passes intercepted, but there have been at least that many passes that could have been intercepted, and while the distinction of “not being intercepted” is an important one, it’s also worth emphasizing that he can’t put the ball in jeopardy (although I think some of the gunslinger mentality that led to those almost-interceptions also led to some pretty big plays in Pitt’s favor).

There’s the running game, too. Pitt ranks No. 50 in rushing yards per game; that’s offset a bit by volume - the Panthers are in the bottom 25 nationally in rushing attempts - and it’s worth noting that Pitt is No. 11 in the nation in yards per attempt. But I think they could still get something a little more consistently effective on the ground. It feels like the run game is largely carried by big plays; I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, but consistently getting positive gains on the ground can make this offense even more dangerous.

The third thing that comes to mind with the offense is third down, but we’ll put that temporarily on hold since the team bounced back from subpar performances against Cincinnati and West Virginia with an outstanding showing at North Carolina (8-of-10 on third down in the second half). So we’ll table that one.

We can’t table the offensive line, though. Ryan Baer has allowed more pressures than any other offensive lineman in the ACC, according to Pro Football Focus, and BJ Williams is in the top five of that category, too, with Jason Collier and Branson Taylor showing up in the top 30.

That’s not a stat where you want a lot of your linemen to be represented. Holstein’s ability as a runner has kept him out of a few sacks this season, but there again, that’s not exactly something you want to rely on.

Defensively, the pass rush still needs to take some steps forward. My guess is that will be a work-in-progress, at best, all season. The linebackers have done a pretty impressive job in just about every respect so far, and that includes rushing the passer. But the defensive line just isn’t getting a lot done up front.

I do think there was a noticeable improvement with the return/debut of Sean FitzSimmons, who had three official quarterback hurries at North Carolina. Plus, the freshmen - end Sincere Edwards and tackle Francis Brewu - keep getting better, and I don’t see that stopping.

So there might be a light at the end of that particular tunnel, although it’s anyone’s guess how quickly Pitt will arrive there. It might take all season.

On the back end of the defense, the concerns are the same as they’ve been for the last 10 years:

From time to time, they’re going to give up big plays. Good quarterbacks can beat this defense if you don’t force them to rush their throws (bringing it back to the pass rush). That has always been the case, and while a season like 2016 was an outlier, there’s still a basic truth that sometimes they’re going to get beat.

We should mention the run defense, too. Like I said, Pitt is outside the top 40 nationally in stopping the run, which is not where we usually see this defense. I think they’ve probably been a bit better than most fans give them credit for, particularly given the caliber of backs they faced in the games against Cincinnati, West Virginia and North Carolina. But they could be better in that regard.

On the whole, Pitt is doing a lot of things well on both sides of the ball. But there are a few vulnerabilities that we’ll have to keep an eye on.

Who will make a play this week?

We spent one section of the column talking about things that could go wrong; now we’ll bounce back the other way, because I think there are certain elements of this team that make it almost recession-proof. Or maybe regression-proof is a better way to put it, because there are a couple things we’ve seen through five games that make me think this team can keep up its success.

In particular, I’m looking at the offense. The defense feels like it will have its ebbs and flows; sometimes an opponent will be able to neutralize Pitt’s developing pass rush or consistently create running lanes, and there’s not going to be a lot the Panthers can do about it.

But the offense…it just feels like the offense has answers. Lots of answers.

It starts with the scheme. I’ve said it a bunch of times: through five games, Kade Bell gets an A grade from me. Not every call is a perfect one, but a whole hell of a lot of them have been, and you can see it by the frequency of open receivers and plays that seem to manipulate the defense just exactly the way you want to manipulate a defense in order to create big plays.

The players have been really good, of course, and a great play call becomes something considerably less great when it’s not executed properly, so we’ll never overlook the players themselves (and we’ll talk about them in a second). But Bell has done a pretty outstanding job through the first five games of the season.

As for the players, the thing that stands out the most to me, and perhaps what makes it feel like this offense might be regression-proof, is how they just keep coming.

Konata Mumpfield is entering the territory of being virtually un-guardable; his route-running is so sharp that he’s able to get himself open even in crunch-time drives like those at the end of the Cincinnati and West Virginia games, but he’s also showing a heck of an ability for making contested catches.

Consider the 43-yard pass he caught from Holstein on the first drive at UNC. Mumpfield wasn’t really open, per se, on that throw. And yet Holstein trusted him and gave him a chance to make a play - which he did.

Mumpfield is playing really well, but let’s say you, as an opposing defense, lock him down. You find a way to commit your coverage to stopping No. 9. Cool.

Check out Kenny Johnson. He’s being targeted, on average, about 15 yards downfield, the same as Mumpfield, and according to Pro Football Focus, Johnson is a perfect 4-for-4 on contested catch opportunities.

So now you might have stopped Mumpfield, but can you stop Mumpfield and Johnson? That’s a tougher ask. But let’s say you find a way to do it. Let’s say you’re rolling coverage and dropping linebackers and you’ve got 2 and 9 locked up. They’re not going to beat you because you’ve committed to stopping them.

Well guess what? Mumpfield and Johnson aren’t even the leading scorers among Pitt’s receivers this season. That would be Raphael Williams; he’s got four touchdown catches, having scored in three of the Panthers’ five games this season. He knows Bell’s offense well. He knows how to run the routes that win in this scheme. And he knows how to execute his assignments to get open in the defense.

You’ve committed to stopping Mumpfield and Johnson; can you get to Williams, too? I’m not sure you can.

But let’s say you can. Let’s say you’ve got a coverage that can take all three of those guys out of it.

Now you can say hello to Censere Lee - the guy who has caught 76% of his targets and leads Pitt’s receivers in making plays after the catch. You might see him on film using a double move to get open for an 82-yard touchdown catch against Youngstown State. Or slipping into the end zone for a too-easy-but-perfectly-designed score last week at UNC.

Yeah, you have to watch him, too.

But we’ll push the hypothetical further - and you know where this is going, don’t you? - we’ll say that you get the clamps on Mumpfield, Johnson, Williams and Lee. They’re not getting open on you. They’re not going to beat you. No way, no how.

Again, you know what name I’m dropping next, right?

ACC receiver of the week Desmond Reid.

The running back who caught 11 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown at North Carolina.

If you stop those other four, you’re not stopping him, too. You might not stop him even if you don’t commit to stopping the four receivers.

And this doesn’t even get into Daejon Reynolds (he’s 2-for-2 on huge plays this season) or Gavin Bartholomew (that breakout game is coming) or Rodney Hammond (he’s going to be called upon to carry a game at some point).

Pitt has a lot of weapons, an offensive coordinator who excels at getting them open and a quarterback who can get them the ball.

That’s a heck of a combination. Maybe there will be a game where none of it works. My guess is that won’t happen very often.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt will win if…

Eli Holstein throws one or zero interceptions.

That sounds like one of the basic football analysis points:

The team with fewer turnovers will win. And to some extent, yeah, I guess it is. But it’s not just about that, because Pitt didn’t win the turnover battle against Kent State (2-2) or Cincinnati (1-1), and the Panthers actually lost the turnover battle at North Carolina (1-0).

So this prediction isn’t about that stat comparison. It’s not about a stat comparison at all. It’s about Eli Holstein not throwing more than one interception. I think that’s the magic number.

And I also kind of think that’s what will happen. Cal comes into this game with 11 interceptions - that’s more than any team in the country. The Bears have a defensive head coach in Justin Wilcox (side note: how often do you see two defensive head coaches like this game will feature? I don’t think it happens very often) and I imagine they’ll have a good plan to mess with Holstein and the Pitt offense.

Specifically, I think they’ll mess with what Holstein sees. I think they’ll disguise coverages and do things they haven’t done in the first five games and trick Holstein into some bad decisions. It’s not like Holstein is immune to those kinds of decisions; Pro Football Focus says he has made nine “turnover-worthy plays” this season, but they only count one from the North Carolina game, and I can think of two off the top of my head, so I’d say the actual number is in double digits.

Holstein is a gunslinger, and that has led to a lot of points for Pitt this season. But it also means he puts the ball in jeopardy from time to time, and I’m guessing the combination of his grip-it-and-rip-it mentality plus Cal’s coverage scheme is probably going to lead to an interception.

In fact, I might go so far as to specifically predict that I think Holstein will throw an interception in the first quarter on Saturday, much like he did at North Carolina last week.

And, also like he did at UNC, I predict that Holstein will bounce back with a pair of touchdown passes in the second quarter.

I really do feel like it’s going to play out like that. The only support I have for that scenario is that Cal gets a lot of picks and Holstein takes chances sometimes.

But along with those chances, he also makes a lot of big plays.

So my prediction on how tomorrow’s game will play out goes like this:

Holstein throws a pick in the first quarter but two touchdown passes in the second. Pitt scores another 24 points in the second half (Holstein throws a third and runs for one, as does Reid, while Ben Sauls stays perfect on his kicks) and wins 38-27.

Place your bets accordingly, because that’s how it’s going to go.

As long as Holstein only throws one interception. If he throws a second pick, I don’t think I see Pitt winning.