The 3-2-1 Column: Getting set for Western Michigan

MORE HEADLINES - The Morning Pitt: The biggest questions heading into the first road trip | Narduzzi on preparing for WMU and more | Video: Narduzzi's final talk before WMU | Pitt's defense Is taking a personal approach against WMU | PODCAST: Getting ready for the first road game of 2022 | Inside the numbers: Pitt's offense after two games | An in-depth look at Pitt's recruiting efforts in Florida | Film review: The good and the bad on offense in Pitt's loss to Tennessee | Film review: Big plays made - and allowed - by Pitt's defense

It is Friday and we are getting you set for Pitt’s game with Western Michigan slated for a 7:30 kickoff on Saturday night. The Panthers are coming off a disappointing overtime loss to Tennessee last week, and on the other side of that game there are also numerous injuries surrounding the team just two games into the season. Pitt has had some positive performances and moments this season, but also plenty of question marks.

As always, there are tons of storylines to discuss in this week’s 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The injuries are mounting
Pitt knew it would have a difficult start the 2022 season from a competitive standpoint, and in the aftermath of those two games the team is now feeling it physically. Opening the season with a heated rivalry like the Backyard Brawl and then a game against a ranked team from the SEC gave Pitt two highly contested and entertaining games, but ones that produced plenty of injuries and the results have created some concerns for the team heading into week three and beyond.

Pitt starting quarterback Kedon Slovis did not play in the second half against Tennessee. His replacement, Nick Patti, was also visibly injured during the game. The Panthers lost running back Rodney Hammond at the end of the West Virginia game. Starting linemen Owen Drexel went down against Tennessee, while Gabe Houy has yet to play in a game this season.

Defensively, Deslin Alexandre missed last week’s game entirely and Devin Danielson left with an injury. Not to mention with numerous bumps and bruises that caused some players to miss plays throughout the game like Tyler Bentley and SirVocea Dennis.

There is a lot to digest on the injury report just two weeks into the 2022 season. In the coming games, Pitt will have to lean on its depth even more than it already has been doing, and in some cases hope that certain players do not have to miss any additional time…

Of course I am specifically talking about the quarterback position. Pitt can not really afford to be entering a game with its third-stringer, whoever that may be at this point. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi has been mum on the status of Slovis and Patti throughout the week, and also non-committal about the pair of quarterbacks behind them: Nate Yarnell and Derek Kyler. He said it will be a 'game time decision' for the game Saturday, but included that Slovis is part of the equation. Slovis was having a nice game prior to his injury against the Volunteers, but the USC transfer took far too many hits in the first half, the final of which, a sack just before halftime, ended his game on Saturday.

I do think Slovis will try and suit up and play on Saturday, but things can look a lot different for this team if he does not. Yarnell has never taken a college snap and Kyler has never played at this high of a level, despite having distinguished career at Dartmouth in the Ivy League.

Aside from the quarterback spot, both the offensive and defensive lines could be without two senior starters on Saturday night. Houy has not been playing, but Drexel may be added to the list. There is still plenty of experience up front, but from what I’ve gathered through two games is that the team misses the play of Houy on the right side, and ushering in a new starting center in a road night game is less than ideal.

The defensive line missed the presence of Alexandre off the edge on Saturday. Now you can potentially throw Danielson into the mix. In both cases, Pitt has talent at these two spots, but how deep does it go? I think Pitt’s defensive line, relative to their own high expectations, has been just OK to this point. They need to get more pressure in the backfield, and now losing two experienced players does not exactly help matters.

As we know, Narduzzi and this program does not disclose specific injuries to the media all that much. So in some cases, a few of the aforementioned injured players may see the field on Saturday, but I think it’s also safe to assume Pitt will be without a few of them.

Western Michigan will be confident
Pitt lost to Western Michigan 44-41 last year in stunning fashion. After an impressive win over Tennessee in the week prior, the Panthers came out flat and almost looked surprised when they took on Western Michigan. The Broncos seemingly had the Panthers sized up on defense from the start and their spread offense hit them in the soft spots for big play after big play.

Western Michigan coach Tim Lester came up with a strong game plan, and his team executed. He even came out and said that he watched Pitt’s film from the 2015 season, and had the defense figured. Pitt did not really have answer for quarterback Kaleb Eleby or star receiver Skyy Moore and the game became a pretty big blemish for the Panthers in what was otherwise a successful season.

Eleby and Moore have since moved on, and that certainly changes the makeup of Western Michigan in the 2022 season. Despite losing their two star players, the Broncos have plenty of reason to feel confident when Pitt comes to town on Saturday night.

The Broncos posted six offensive touchdowns in last year’s game with Pitt. Running backs Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson accounted for two apiece, while wide receiver Corey Crooms posted a touchdown on 8 catches for 161 yards. Those three players are back and they comprise the Western Michigan nucleus on offense. Crooms is coming off a 100-yard game last week, and Tyler and Jefferson have five combined touchdowns through two games. Having players that believe they can make plays against a power five team is always important for a group of five school looking to pull an upset. In Western Michigan’s case, they have players that have done it already.

I also think there could be a few players playing with a chip on their shoulders on the Western Michigan side. Former Pitt defensive back Bricen Garner is a starter for the Broncos on defense. He left Pitt to find more playing time, and he will likely looking to prove something this weekend against his old team. The same could be said for Jack Solpek, the starting quarterback for Western Michigan.

The jury is still out on the young quarterback with only two career starts under his belt, but on a personal level he may be playing with some added motivation. Salopek is from Norwin High School, just outside of Pittsburgh. He was recruited by Pitt for a time, but that interest waned during his recruitment and he landed in Kalamazoo. There is always a factor in players looking to show the school that passed on them what they are missing. In last year’s case, Skyy Moore did just that. We’ll see if Salopek can replicate that performance, but it’s safe to assume that’s his goal.

There is also the home field advantage to consider for Western Michigan. This will be a ranked ACC team coming to town for a primetime ESPNU game. It is a unique opportunity for the Broncos, as power-five teams don’t play at MAC schools too often, so there will be a buzz in the air at Waldo Stadium, a venue that holds just over 30,000 fans.

In review, Western Michigan has a coaching staff and some key players that all contributed in last year’s upset win over Pitt. There are some players with some extra motivation, and of course there will be a raucous stadium with a rare chance to host a ranked team from a power-five league. Pitt has a better team on paper, and should win the game, but Western Michigan also has plenty of reasons to feel confident.

The offensive line isn’t playing up to par
There were plenty of reasons to be bullish on the Pitt football team heading into the season, and perhaps the biggest was the return of all five starting offensive linemen. Pitt produced one of the best offenses in school history in 2021, and all five starters, plus the top two reserve offensive linemen came back for this season. It should have been a strength of the team, but right now it feels like a question mark after two games.

Pitt has allowed nine sacks through two games, which ranks 13th out of 14 teams in the ACC. Also, Pitt is averaging 108.5 rushing yards a game, and that is also good 13th in the conference. It has been a less than ideal start for this Pitt offense trying to pick up where it left off in 2021. After a slow start in week one, the running game did get back on track against Tennessee thanks to some big runs by Israel Abanikanda, but the sacks are something that have persisted in both games. It goes beyond the sacks, too. Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis is taking far too many hits early on this season.

I am not sure all of those struggles fall squarely on the offensive line, as the running backs and tight ends need to block better too, but there is no denying play of the offensive line has been lackluster to this point. Pitt has been without starting right tackle Gabe Houy for both games this season and while his replacement Matthew Goncalves is experienced, but he has struggled enough to share duties with redshirt sophomore Branson Taylor, even being replaced by Taylor during Pitt’s game-tying touchdown drive against West Virginia. There is no official word on center Owen Drexel's status, but his injury on Saturday looked like something that will keep him out for at least a game, if not much more, which will likely shuffle the lineup a bit on Saturday.

Pitt’s offensive line showed up better in week two in run blocking. The offensive play calling also allowed for them to be more successful on the ground, with going mostly out of shotgun when Slovis was in the game. Pitt was able to utilize more RPO action, and that proved to be beneficial as that was the type of play Abanikanda broke off his 76-yard touchdown run.

Pitt can’t continue to allow 4+ sacks a game. It is putting them behind the chains and creating longer third down conversions for the team.

There is a sense that this offensive line actually struggled last year, and that Kenny Pickett simply masked their problems all season long. While I do think the former Pitt quarterback was able to extend plays and run out of sacks, he is not Superman, either.

Pitt had a top-10 offense nationally last season. You can’t have that successful of an offense without an effective offensive line paving the way, no matter who your quarterback is. All of these players: Drexel, Goncalves, Carter Warren, Marcus Minor, Blake Zubovic, and Jake Krael, played a big part in Pitt’s ACC Championship team last season. They are working in a new offensive scheme, and that does take time, but there is no excuse the quarterback should be on the ground as much as he has been through two games. Pitt has a bunch of offensive linemen that have played at a high level last season, and it is time they start doing it again this year.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How meaningful was the loss to Tennessee?
A dubious streak continued for Pitt football over the weekend with the loss to Tennessee. The Panthers have never made it through non-conference play undefeated (Sorry, 1-0 against Austin Peay in 2020 doesn’t count). Pitt joined the Big East ahead of the 1991 season, and since then the program has never had a season where it has won all of its non-conference games. It’s a remarkable streak, but many felt this could have been the year for Pitt to do it.

Pitt’s loss to Tennessee was a frustrating one on many levels. The Panthers jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, but that almost felt more like a disappointment than an advantage. The team had opportunities to capitalize early on in the game and up through overtime, but they left numerous plays and points on the field.

Now what?

Pitt is 1-1, but still finds itself ranked inside the Top-25 in both major polls. There are some unfortunate outcomes from losing to Tennessee, but there are also plenty of opportunities for this team ahead to still have a successful season.

Losing to Tennessee is not a season killer, far from it actually. The Volunteers are a non-conference opponent, so Pitt’s bid to win the ACC for the second straight season is still very much on the table. Looking up and down the ACC, the conference still looks winnable yet again for the Panthers. Pitt did not really play its best game on Saturday and dealt with some serious injuries, and still almost knocked off a ranked team. I think that bodes well for conference play, because there are some vulnerable teams in the ACC.

If your dream is still the College Football Playoffs for Pitt, well we all know in college football that it is better to lose in September than November. Losing in the second week of the season allows Pitt to slowly climb the rankings if the team keeps on winning. Remember, Pitt did not crack the top-25 until October last season. Pitt is already ahead of where it was last year. I am not ready to anoint this Pitt team as one that can run the table and make a run at the top-four, but last year’s team had an outside chance of doing that by mid-October, and this squad is very much capable of replicating that if it takes care of business in the next 4-5 games.

The Tennessee loss was unfortunate because of the ‘What ifs’ that came with the game. What if Pitt won? Well, you are looking at a team in the top-15 instead of No. 23 with that same exact manageable schedule ahead. There were also some top-notch recruits in the building, and you never want to lose a game with some of your top prospects on-hand, so the loss stings a bit there as well.

Basically, the loss to Tennessee in terms of what Pitt can do this season wasn’t a back-breaker, but it was less than ideal given the added perks that would have came with the win. The Panthers would have been thrust into the national conversation much earlier, and from that point of view the Tennessee loss does feel like a missed opportunity. I still think there is a lot on the table that this team can accomplish, and while the loss to Tennessee wasn’t ideal, all of the goals for this team are still there for the taking.

Who is that ‘other’ playmaker?
Through two games this season, it is clear Pitt has three reliable offensive weapons. I think in order for Pitt’s offense to take an important next step, another player or two has to emerge.

Israel Abanikanda dazzled in week two with 175 yards of offense and a 76-yard touchdown against Tennessee. The junior tailback struggled in week one with only 15 rushing yards. It was a nice bounce back game for Abanikanda, and he has now displayed twice this season that his speed is a game changer, with the long run on Saturday and also the game-tying touchdown catch in the West Virginia game.

Gavin Bartholomew was able to show off some gamebreakinig potential on Saturday as well with 57-yard touchdown that saw the sophomore tight end hurdle a defender. He was not targeted much in week one, but had a much better showing on Saturday with five catches.

The third and final known playmaker on this offense right now is Jared Wayne. Everyone sort of knew what Wayne would provide this season, and he has probably exceeded those expectations anyway. Wayne hauled in a do-or-die game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter on fourth down. He leads Pitt with 10 catches for 171 yards. Wayne has been the consistent, steadying presence in the offense.

But...you can never have enough playmakers, and I think this offense needs one more reliable option to flourish. Rodney Hammond is likely that fourth playmaker, but he missed last game with an injured ankle and I don’t expect him to play Saturday either.

The most natural candidate here is Konata Mumpfield. The Akron transfer has nine catches on the year, and made some nice plays in the Backyard Brawl, but had some drops in week two that were costly. I think Mumpfield has the potential to be a difference maker for the offense, but he needs to show more consistency.

Another potential player to watch is Bub Means. The Louisiana Tech transfer has not performed well through two games, but there was a reason the coaches were gushing about him in training camp. He is a big, athletic playmaker. Means needs to focus on catching the ball, of course, but there is untapped potential here and he could be a real game changer if he puts it together.

Could guys like Jaylon Barden or Jaden Bradley contribute more? Will another tight end like Karter Johnson or Kyi Wright emerge? Can Vincent Davis or Daniel Carter add more to the offense?

It doesn’t really matter who it is, but this offense simply needs another reliable weapon.

Pitt will continue to lean on Abanikanda, Bartholomew, and Wayne, and the team will continue to anxiously await the return of Hammond. But until then, this offense really needs someone else to emerge. I think Mumpfield has the best chance of becoming that other option.

ONE PREDICTION

Izzy Abanikanda sets a new career high on Saturday
Israel Abanikanda set three career-high marks for his performance against Tennessee. He posted 191 all-purpose yards, 154 rushing yards, and broke off a career-best 76-yard touchdown run. Unsurprisingly he was named the ACC Running Back of the Week for that kind of stat line.

My prediction for the week is that Abanikanda breaks one of those career-high marks just one week later.

Whether that’s more than 191 all-purpose yards, or 155 rushing yards, and even a touchdown run that is longer than 76 yards. I think given the circumstances of the team right now with all of the injuries, especially at the quarterback position, I believe the offense will be leaning on Abanikanda for the second week in a row. My call is that the junior tailback delivers another personal record-setting game in as many weeks.