The 3-2-1 Column: Getting set for the 2024 season

The 2024 college football season is upon us. The Pitt football team will break training camp today, and next week, they will begin preparations for the opening game against Kent State set for Saturday August 31st at Acrisure Stadium.

Now that camp is in the rear view, all focus is on the season ahead. So what can we expect from this team? In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we break down the biggest storylines around this team with the season right around the corner.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

No starting quarterback…yet

Eight days until the opening game, and there has still yet to be an announcement made on who Pitt’s starting quarterback will be for the 2024 season. I can’t say I am totally surprised by that given Pat Narduzzi’s noncommittal tone throughout training camp, but it’s also getting to the 11th hour here as well.

When the team returns to the practice field on Sunday, they will be engaged with all things Kent State. There is no more training camp battles, but rather the 2024 team will be preparing for its first game. Remember, this is really the only level of football that does not get a dress rehearsal before the first game. High schools get scrimmages to iron things out, the NFL has the preseason, but the first time you line up against an opponent in college football, the game is live.

With that in mind, at this juncture, you would think the quarterback battle would have been settled, and maybe it has been and it is not just public yet. It’s very possible the news could come out at any time about the winner, or we keep this guessing game going for a few more days.

I am advocate for having a starter settled and having one voice leading the huddle for the first team offense one week prior to the game. I think it’s good for the team’s consistency to kind of have that mindset of knowing who the guy is.

Perhaps neither one has created the necessary separation yet, however.

If that’s the case, the planned two-quarterback approach for the opener is still on the table, one would think. I did not think Pitt would go that route, just based on past history. This is not the first quarterback battle under Narduzzi, but it does feel like the first one that’s a true, even competition in a long time.

You would have to go back to 2015, Narduzzi’s first season, the last time Pitt did not have a defined No. 1 quarterback coming out of training camp. Chad Voytik was technically the starter, but Nate Peterman had some scheduled series in the first two games. Peterman slowly took away the job for good by the third game, and never really looked back from there.

I do not know if that is the way this thing is going, but with each passing day, it remains a possibility. It’s hard to give good analysis about a quarterback competition I was mostly shielded from, but I do have some opinions on each of the competitors.

Nate Yarnell feels like a safe, smart play if he were to be named the starting quarterback. This offense is about making quick, smart decisions and distributing the football. The playmakers can make the offense hum along, while the quarterback just has to spread it around. In that sense, Yarnell sort of fits that calling card. He can make quick one-read throws and get the ball out and not commit turnovers. It’s been a small sample size, but that’s what he’s done in his auditions the past two seasons. I think there is a lower ceiling of sorts with Yarnell, but I believe he can run this offense effectively.

Eli Holstein is probably the higher upside pick. He is a former four star, and we’ve heard throughout training camp that his pedigree can absolutely shine through at times. There was a reason he was recruited by Alabama after all. He is also been described as the more mobile of the two options. While I don’t necessarily think this offense needs a running quarterback, it’s another factor the defense has to respect.

In the end, we’re still kind of stuck on this question until there is clarity brought to the situation. Maybe that will come sooner rather than later.

The defense will bounce back this season

Pitt’s defensive philosophy is kind of a perfectly imperfect approach to playing the game of football. When this defense is clicking, it is still susceptible to allowing big plays, but in modern college football, that’s kind of understood. Very few teams have straight up, dominant defense these days. What makes a defense effective in college football is generating splash plays like sacks, TFLs, and turnovers, and also playing relatively clean football on third downs.

If you can do those things well, then you give your team a chance to win. I think that’s been the calling card of Pitt’s defense: play behind the line of scrimmage and make enough plays on third down.

Bend but don’t break, if you want to use the cliché.

From 2019-2022, that’s exactly how this team played. The Panthers built up one of the most fearsome pass rushes in college football and got off the field when it put teams in third down situations. That was it, but more often than not, it was just enough.

The 2023 team lost its way in both categories. The Pitt pass rush was not terrible in 2023, but hardly played at the elite level it did from 2019-2022. In those four seasons, Pitt was a top four team nationally in sacks every season, and was top-25 in opponent third-down percentage. Last season, Pitt fell to 42nd nationally in sacks, and 50th in third-down defense.

Those were not dramatic declines overall, but I think there were some reasons for them. Pitt’s offense cost the team plenty of games by not scoring, but I think it also hampered the defense by putting a lot more pressure on that side of the ball. In four of Pitt’s nine losses last year, the Panthers had 12 or fewer first downs. The team simply could not move the ball, which in turn, kept the defense on the field for longer stretches.

The other reason the defense wasn’t as effective last year was the talent loss on the roster. Pitt saw its best defensive linemen, middle linebacker, and both starting safeties get drafted off the 2022 team, which was a lot of talent at key positions to leave the program all at once.

So last year’s step back sort of makes sense. It was the perfect storm of losing major contributors coupled with an offense that made it hard to perform at a high level. Can Pitt’s defense regain its footing in 2024? I’m starting to think it can.

Pitt has been very good at developing talent on that side of the ball. Over the past five years, Pitt has had 18 players drafted to the NFL, with 12 of them being defensive players. This coaching staff has simply been good at getting the most out of what they have, and I think this year, there is plenty to work with talent-wise.

This defense should have strong safety play with Donovan McMillon anchoring the group. I’ve been pretty bullish on what I think the linebackers can be all offseason, with a guy like Kyle Louis primed for a big year. The potential of the defensive line has even grown on me since the start of camp, simply because I think there’s talent among that group, they are just facing inexperience more than anything. I could see them finding a few standouts in that collection of players.

There are good parts here, certainly enough to have a bounce back campaign. Pitt’s defense is not always perfect, but they are usually very good in their own specific way. I think we start to see some of those splash defensive play numbers increase, and this unit resembles what it was prior to last season.

Buying in on the Western Carolina transfers

When Pitt landed Western Carolina stars Desmond Reid and Censere Lee initially out of the transfer portal, I was skeptical, but also understood the moves. Kade Bell was set to introduce his new offense and overhaul the whole scheme, and bringing his two best playmakers with him made sense. But then Pitt added Raphael ‘Poppi’ Williams as well, and I started to wonder if it was overkill to bring in that many guys from his old program.

Expecting one guy to make the move successfully from the FCS to the ACC seemed like a big enough ask, let along three. But then spring camp started, and we began to hear positive notes on these guys. They were making explosive plays, and their size did not seem to be an issue.

Summer happened, same thing. Narduzzi would talk up guys like Reid and kept that attention on them. And from the start of camp through today, nothing has really changed. The expectation is that these guys not only will help this team, but they could also have some of the biggest roles for this offense.

Seeing will help with believing, but the reports about these three newcomers are pretty strong. Reid very well could be the top back, or at least in a committee at the top. Williams and Lee both figure to be in the main five-man rotation at receiver. These three have seemingly also been instrumental in making the offensive install easier for their teammates, but have also been making their own mark on the program.

“They're explosive and they're leaders because they've been in the offense for a couple years,” sophomore right tackle Ryan Baer said of the Western Carolina transfers. “They know what they're doing. They've helped out a lot with the guys that are here and other new guys that came in. So I'm really excited to see what they can do.

There is something to be said for coming in with a chip on your shoulder, and oftentimes undersized and under recruited guys fit that bill. Gavin Bartholomew, one of the mainstays on the Pitt offense, brushed off their size when asked about them earlier in camp.

“It doesn’t matter what size you are,” said the veteran tight end. “To me, if you’re a baller, you’re a baller and they prove it every day on the field. You turn the tape on and they’re making plays just like everyone else, despite their size. They definitely make it up in speed, that’s for sure.”

With one week until the opener. there is a lot of anticipation about this offense and team as a whole. The quarterback is the big story, how the scheme fits this team is not far behind, but seeing these three guys actually perform at a power-level is another thing to watch. But now that camp is over, I’m starting to sense these guys can make a really big impact.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who will benefit most from this new offense?

After talking up some of the new parts of the offense, I do wonder who stands the most to gain among the returning players. If this offensive attack is set to be more wide open than last year, then I think a few guys should be able to produce at a higher level.

There were many failures that led to Pitt’s 3-9 season in 2023, but a lot of it seemed to fall on bad quarterback play more than anything else. When the quarterback struggles, so does everyone else. The opportunities to make plays were so few and far between in some games, so it felt like a good chunk of this roster was underutilized in a way.

Can this new offense fix that? That’s the idea, of course, but who should have an improved season because of this scheme specifically? I have three guys in mind.

When watching some old Western Carolina highlights recently, one thing that struck me, the tight end is always sort of there as a safety valve. For a guy like Gavin Bartholomew, who hasn’t seen a ton of touches the last two seasons, I think that’s an easy solution for him getting the ball. There have been questions about his play as a tight end, because his most effective season came when he played in an H-Back style role. I don’t necessarily think the tight end in this offense is an H-Back, but the depth of reception is probably more in line with getting him the ball and letting him pick up steam going downhill, reminiscent of his freshman year.

Kenny Johnson should also stand to benefit from this new attack, but basically that’s true of all the receivers. Johnson has speed and playmaking ability, but Pitt struggled to find uses for him as a freshman. While he needs to grow as a player on his own, having an offense with a friendlier passing game should help get him there.

Pitt also had an anemic rushing attack in 2023, something that was not necessarily expected given who was calling the plays. Again, going back to old Western Carolina clips, this offense is very conducive to running the football. Plus, with tempo, there will be opportunities to do it quite often.

When this offense gets on a roll and the running backs start to pick up chunks of yards, Bell will continue to call running plays until the defense can stop it. There were instances where a Western Carolina back would get five, six, seven carries in a single drive last season, all because they had the defense on their heels.

While I think there will be a running back rotation at the top, Rodney Hammond should still get more opportunities to make plays than a year ago, provided the offense is clicking.

Hammond has always found himself as the No. 2 option or in a race for playing time in his first three seasons, and while that rotation may continue, there are going to be more chances for him this year.

Those three stood out, but nearly every offensive player who was around last season should be more eager to play in this system. We’re still waiting around to see if it works, but it’ll be hard to have an offense as bad as last year’s.

Are there any real concerns with Kent State?

OK, I think we’re through the preseason camp stuff…for now. Like the Pitt football team, I’m going to shift gears towards Kent State week. Is this a game that should cause any concern?

Vegas does not seem to think so.

Pitt is currently a 24-point favorite according to DraftKings. Kent State was picked to finish 12th in the Mid-American Conference, out of 12 teams. The Golden Flashes made significant strides as a program making the MAC title game in 2021 under head coach Sean Lewis, but he moved on, and now they are coming off of a 1-11 campaign this past season, and obviously the expectations aren’t much higher for this year.

It’s been well documented how bad Pitt’s offense was in 2023, but Kent State actually had them beat. The Panthers were ranked 116th in points per game out of 133 teams in college football. Someone had to be No. 133, and it was none other than Kent State, as the Golden Flashes produced just 19 touchdowns for the entire 2023 season.

Either way, there is going to be some tense feelings about this game from parts of the Pitt fanbase, I know, because I’ve seen it. When a team is coming off a three-win season, it does not exactly inspire confidence. When there are questions about how an inexperienced offensive coordinator is taking the reins, there is a nervous energy. As I said before, there aren’t preseason games in college football. Any issues this team may have will need to be ironed out right away.

So that adds a little pressure, right?

Ehhh

Pitt is 33-5 all-time against teams currently in the MAC, with an unblemished 7-0 mark against the Golden Flashes. While there have been some nightmarish losses for this program through the years: 2003 Toledo, 2004 Ohio, 2008 Bowling Green, and 2012 Youngstown State all coming to mind, I don’t think that will be the case next weekend.

Kent State is meant to be and ultimately will be a confidence builder for this team before taking on Cincinnati and West Virginia in consecutive weeks.

ONE PREDICTION

Doubling down on some over/unders

In case you missed this week’s Panther-Lair.com live Wednesday night podcast, Chris Peak decided to give me a bunch of over/unders regarding this year’s Pitt team. It’s the second year in a row we’ve done this, and it’s a fun exercise to sort of project where we think this team is after spending a month of covering training camp.

As I went back over some some of my best guesses, two stuck out to me: points per game and total touchdowns. I took the over on each. Now I’m not confidently saying this Pitt offense will blow these numbers out of the water or have some great air raid attack. But I have to believe in some form or fashion that this offense is going to be better than last year.

It would almost be impossible not to be.

The projected total I was given on points per game was set at 27.5. For reference, Pitt averaged 20.2 in the 2023 season. The total for offensive touchdowns was set at 35.5, and again, I felt the over was the smart play.

An extra touchdown a game would be an upgrade for this team, and really, I think that’s all it will take to sort of get back on track as a program. Pitt played in a lot of close games last season, even in a downtrodden 3-9 campaign. The difference in winning and losing in college football can sometimes be a fine line, and by averaging an extra touchdown a game, you could tip the scales towards the winning side more often than not.

At the end of the day, 27.6 points per game, the bare minimum of crossing the over/under line, would have put the team at 62nd in the nation in scoring according to last year’s stats.

It’s still not necessarily great offense, but it’s better, and that’s kind of the goal for the first year under Bell. Obviously, the long term goals for his scheme are much higher, but in year one, that kind of step forward, while generating some excitement, would go a long way in putting 2023 behind them.