The No.18 Pitt Panthers are 7-0 and have their biggest game of the season to date tomorrow, when they take on No. 20 SMU on the road for a primetime 8:00 p.m. showdown in Dallas.
Oh yeah, Pitt basketball begins the 2024-25 season on Monday, so we can’t forget about them either. Needless to say, those will be the driving topics in this week’s 3-2-1 Column.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
A chance to bounce back
The Pitt offense drove the bus for the team’s first five wins of the season, but that unit has been spinning in circles a bit over the past two games. The Panthers only produced 277 yards of offense in a 17-15 win over Cal, and just 217 yards in the team’s most recent victory, a 41-13 decision over Syracuse last Thursday night.
In the Cal game, Pitt was plagued by a pair of interceptions by Eli Holstein, and simply had to grind out the game against a good Cal defense. The Syracuse game was a bit different. The Panthers’ offense was stuck on the sidelines most of the game, mainly due to the fact the defense kept scoring off of pick-sixes thrown by Kyle McCord.
It’s not that they had a bad performance last week, but more of an incomplete one. Whatever you want to call, it’s been two games where this high-powered offense hasn’t done much, and tomorrow represents an opportunity to get back on track.
This Pitt offense has shown its explosiveness throughout the season, and going into the biggest game of the year, it would be a welcomed time to get this group clicking once again for this team. If Pitt is going to get back to moving the ball and scoring quickly, it has to start with Eli Holstein.
Pitt’s redshirt freshman quarterback struggled against Cal, and didn’t get much of a chance to work through those mistakes in the Syracuse game. Not to mention he left with an injury in the fourth quarter which posted a little doubt about his status for tomorrow, although Narduzzi said he was cleared to play earlier this week.
Holstein was brilliant for five games, and I think that fact may have been buried a bit for the past few weeks. With a bad showing against Cal, a bye week, and a muted performance in the Syracuse game, it has felt like a long time since we’ve seen Holstein at his best.
Just to provide a quick refresher, in his two road starts this season, he is 2-0 with wins over Cincinnati and North Carolina. The Panthers’ quarterback posted 683 passing yards, 112 rushing yards, and accounted for seven touchdowns in those two contests. I don’t think the environment or the moment will be too overwhelming for him, but it comes down to simply playing better.
Holstein may need to rely on simple throws, maybe get back to running more, trusting the play calling, and also just giving the ball to Desmond Reid a bunch. The Panthers’ junior tailback had a quiet game against Syracuse, but again, he was also incredible in every game prior to that and is always a threat to take any play the distance.
Pitt has a good offense, and it was proven in the first month of the season. Kade Bell puts guys in favorable spots. They have talented players. I don’t think two low offensive outputs in a row should make us forget all of that. At any point, another 500-yard game could erupt with this group, and maybe this could be the bounce-back game they need. SMU is very stout against the run, but there seems to be holes to hit in the passing game, and the Panthers have enough talent to be a threat no matter what the are Mustangs doing tomorrow.
A chance to keep it going
While the Pitt offense is searching for a get-back game, the Pitt defense is looking to maintain its elite level for another week. Pitt has allowed a total of six touchdowns in three ACC games. If the Panthers are only allowing two touchdowns a game in conference play, then more often than not, good results will follow.
Pitt started to scratch the surface in the North Carolina game, then followed it up with a six-sack showing against Cal. Then of course, took it a step further with a monster outburst with three defensive touchdowns in the win over Syracuse.
The Panthers are swarming right now, and you can see the confidence being built each week. The thing is, it looks sustainable. Going into the season it always felt like there was talent on this defense, though it was mostly untapped, but over time it would develop.
Narduzzi switched things up with his offense in a big way, but kept the band together on defense and that is certainly looking like a wise move. Randy Bates, Archie Collins, Cory Sanders, and Ryan Manalac have been with the program for years, and their strength is identifying talent and developing it, and there have been a bunch of those cases this year.
Kyle Louis and Rasheem Biles were two ordinary three-star recruits with limited offers, but are playing like All-Americans. Rashad Battle and Ryland Gandy looks like another good set of Pitt cornerbacks. The safeties are playing at the high level they were expected to perform at this season. The defensive line is starting to come together as well.
None of this should be surprising, because this is what they have done for a long time.
Over the last five years, Pitt has had 18 players drafted and 12 of those have been on defense. The Panthers; 3-9 season didn’t force changes schematically, but rather with the personnel. I thought it was interesting in a piece by Yahoo’s Ross Dellenger earlier this week that Narduzzi admitted as much publicly in the article.
“They wanted more money. It made us better. We didn’t need those guys.”
I think we can assume who 'those guys' are at this point. Pitt had multiple starters who hit the transfer portal, largely with financial motivations seemingly in mind like Solomon DeShields, Dayon Hayes, DeAndre Jules Samuel Okunlola.
While that was a lot of talent to lose off of one defense, the Panthers appear hungrier this season, and if that’s being fueled by a bunch of first-year starters rather than some guys who got complacent, than so be it. Hunger works just fine as a motivating factor, and it appears what this defense has channeled through seven games to date.
The SMU offense can pose some challenges, and we’ll get into that in a little bit, but the biggest thing for Pitt is just kind of keep doing what they have been doing. Narduzzi’s scheme hasn’t changed much in 20+ years. They are what they are, but when you have players performing at a high level, than this defense can really lift off into new heights. We’ve seen just that in the past two weeks with a chance to keep that streak rolling behind hunger, confidence, and a coaching staff that knows how to coach defense.
Sizing up the Mustangs
I can’t even begin to count the dominoes it took over the past decade for SMU and Pitt to be in the same conference here in the year of 2024. Because of that, I think this week’s opponent needs a bit of an introduction.
The SMU Mustangs are first-year members in the ACC, and to say it’s been a long road back to major college football is a bit of an understatement. Southern Methodist University reeled off a 41-5 record from 1981-1984 with four top-12 finishes in the AP Poll. The program was then infamously hit with the ‘Death Penalty’ for repeated violations against NCAA rules for the improper compensation of players.
As a result, those sanctions virtually wiped out the former Southwest Conference program for a long time. SMU had conference affiliations in the WAC, Conference USA, and the American Athletic Conference from 1996-2023. The Mustangs were not all that successful in those purgatory years, with only one conference title during that stretch.
But that conference title came last year with an 11-3 record under rising star head coach Rhett Lashlee. SMU joined the ACC unexpectedly, but also with some momentum. Ironic as it is that paying players is legal now during SMU’s rebirth as a program, the same offense that nearly killed it four decades ago.
Water under the bridge, as the 6-1 Mustangs enter this game ranked 20th in the nation and winners of five straight. SMU’s lone loss was an 18-15 decision to now No. 9 and undefeated BYU. Lashlee’s club is one of the four teams without a loss in ACC play, along with Clemson, Miami, and Pitt.
This team avoided disaster last week with a 28-27 overtime win over Duke, in a game where they committed six turnovers. SMU has kind of been cruising otherwise this season, especially when the keys were handed over to sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings.
He started the week questionable, but all signs point to him playing tomorrow night. Jennings is a true dual threat and has accounted for 10 passing and three rushing touchdowns this season.
His top playmaker is Brashard Smith, a transfer from Miami, who has 745 rushing yards and nine scores this season. There is some Miami influence on the roster, which also brings a bit of familiarity, of course. Lashlee was the offensive coordinator for the Hurricanes and Pitt saw him in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, with Miami winning both contests.
SMU’s defensive strength in stopping the run. The Mustangs rank fifth nationally, surrendering only 88.3 yards per game rushing. SMU also has three players with at least two interceptions this year, highlighted by Isaiah Nwokobia, the reigning ACC DB of the Week.
One advantage to consider for SMU will be the crowd. The student section reportedly sold out in less than 20 minutes and a nighttime atmosphere always increases the noise level in a stadium. Tomorrow won’t be an easy environment for Pitt, although the team is 2-0 in road contests this year.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
What are the three things to watch for in Pitt’s season opener?
This is my last 3-2-1 Column before the start of college basketball, so you’ll have to excuse me while I sneak in some final preseason thoughts before that season gets going.
We’ll have plenty of season-long preview stuff to run on Monday as a site here at Panther-Lair.com, but specifically analyzing the first game, I think there are certain checkmarks everyone will be looking to see. Here is what I’ll be looking for in the season opener against Radford on Monday, set for a 7:00 p.m. tip at the Petersen Events Center.
The first thing I will have my eye on is how well Cam Corhen blends into this team. Pitt won a lot of games the past two seasons with Federiko Federiko manning the center spot. No disrespect intended, but it felt like the one obvious area where the Panthers needed to upgrade was here. Corhen looks to be more skilled offensive player than Federiko. In the exhibition win over Point Park, he scored 14 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, but now we’ll see if that translates to the regular season.
The second thing I will be monitoring is simply the play of Jaland Lowe. I do not think I could be higher on him as a player going into this season and I almost expect him to perform at an all-conference level. Fair or not, I am completely bought in on him and I think he is poised for a very big season as a sophomore.
Lowe was Pitt’s best guard at times last season, even in Bub Carrington’s shadow, so I don’t think he’ll have a problem on that end. The big thing this year is that he is the guy for this team. Going from a complimentary role to being the best player is a significant jump for anyone, so seeing how he handles that will go a long way in determining the type of season Pitt will have this year.
Lastly, I just want to see what the rotation looks like. Jeff Capel will speak to the media later today, and we’ll get an update to see if Amsal Delalic will be available Monday. If not, I think the Panthers have a core group of seven guys who will eat the bulk of the minutes, but with a potential blowout, then more guys should see the action.
Pitt can play big with Corhen and Guillermo Diaz Graham on the floor. They can go small with Zack Austin playing the four. And of course, Pitt also has four guards who are all worthy of minutes. Assuming the game is a blowout, how will those minutes be distributed in the first half when it’s still a game? That’s the big question. Pitt has three games against lesser competition before West Virginia comes to town on November 15th, so Monday is just the first opportunity to see what the rotation will look like with time to adjust.
Is this the biggest game of the Pat Narduzzi era?
I think the short answer here is…yes. And I think it simply goes into the optics of where things are for this program right now. No matter what time the game kicks off, or which channel you have to turn to, nothing can take away from the importance of this game to this current Pitt team and its head coach.
Pitt has never made it through non-conference play without a loss until this season. The team has not been undefeated through seven games since 1982. There have been hurdles cleared seemingly every week for this particular group, but the 2024 Pitt Panthers are ranked 18th and are 7-0. That’s the story.
Should they be ranked higher? Probably.
Does it matter? No, because winning will take care of it.
In his tenth season, Narduzzi is enjoying the best start to a season he has ever had as Pitt’s head coach. Narduzzi has never had a big ranked-on-ranked regular season matchup in his tenure like the one in store for Saturday when his 18th ranked Panthers go down to Dallas to take on No. 20 SMU.
The last time Narduzzi coached Pitt as a ranked team against another ranked team was in week two against Tennessee. While that was a key early season showdown, one that did not go in Pitt’s favor, it did not have the same meaningful implications of what tomorrow has for this year’s team. This particular game with SMU can most certainly be a catalyst for things to come for the Panthers.
I think we can start in acknowledging that Pitt has already shattered most reasonable expectations anyone had for them to this point. Despite the hot start, I still don’t know if this thing actually gets to 12-0, and that’s fine. Call me a cynic, a hater, but I don’t think this regular season going to end with an undefeated record. Pitt is very clearly a good team, a strong contender to win the ACC, but 12-0 is not easy is all I am really saying.
BUT…if it were to happen, and the dream season gets to continue on for this program, then this game on Saturday seems like one of the biggest hurdles left in the way. It’s not because I think SMU is some unbeatable force or anything, but they are a good team. The Mustangs will have that added crowd advantage for a night game, and they have just as much to play for as a team in the hunt for an ACC title and a College Football Playoff berth.
The stakes are high, Texas-sized if you will, but part of starting 7-0 is having a big game every week, especially when the calendar shifts to November. Meaningful football in the final month of the regular season is a cool thing, and Pitt gets to play some of that tomorrow night.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt gets to 8-0
I keep checking the line for the game tomorrow. It is still hanging at Pitt +7.5, and I am still not exactly sure why that is. At first, I figured maybe there was more to meet the eye with Holstein’s injury, but even with his status being confirmed, the betting line never really changed.
Maybe I am missing something here, but I don’t know why the betting line is so big for this game. SMU is on a great run as a program, 18-4 over the past two seasons, and is playing at home with presumably an enthusiastic crowd to boot. But, the Mustangs also barely survived a game against Duke, has a sophomore quarterback who struggled quite a bit and also came up injured in that contest, right?
I think these teams are a bit more evenly matched than the line would say. SMU has good players and a great young coach in Lashlee, but I don’t think we have to pretend Pitt is some feel good story either. They have all-conference caliber players up and down the roster and haven’t lost a game yet either.
I don’t know. Pitt just seems like a better football team than SMU to me and they've won twice on the road already.
With that said, I think Pitt is going to win tomorrow.
That’s it.
That's the prediction for this week’s 3-2-1 column, Pitt moves to 8-0.
