The 3-2-1 Column: Forgetting PSU, beating GT and more

Look, I like a home game as much as anyone. Sleep at home the night before the game, drive less than 20 minutes back home after the game. Everything is comfortable and familiar (you don’t know the professional panic of trying to worm your way through hundreds of people and then winding your way through the bowels of the Carrier Dome to find that one door you need to go through for the postgame press conference, where you crowd around a random podium for the head coach’s press conference).

Home is better. Home is home.

But this weekend…I don’t know. I kind of think it might be better for Pitt to go on the road this weekend.

In the aftermath of last Saturday’s embarrassment at the hands of Penn State (and quite a few Pitt hands contributed to that one, too), there is a lot of unrest among the Panther faithful. Pitt just took its worst home loss in 50 years and it came from the archrival Nittany Lions; embarrassing actually doesn’t seem to do the situation justice.

And while Pitt’s players and coaches no doubt feel much more shame than the fans, they have an obligation and strong desire to be at this Saturday’s game, the Panthers’ ACC opener. Pitt fans have no such obligation and likely even less desire, and we’re guessing that translates the way it often does with this particular fanbase:

Empty seats, and lots of them.

Consider last season, when Pitt opened with Youngstown State in front of 40,000 and then went to Penn State in Week Two. The Panthers lost that game, and when they resurfaced at Heinz Field a week later to host Oklahoma State, just 38,952 showed up. That loss was even more brutal, as we know, and the following week’s loss at Georgia Tech was almost as bad, so Rice in Week Five drew 33,051.

The low-water mark came a month later. Three days before Halloween, Pitt was 2-5 and hosting Virginia, the announced crowd was 30,889. That was the sixth-smallest crowd in Heinz Field history and the lowest number Pitt had drawn in 10 years.

I’m fearful of what the number will be on Saturday.

There is something to be said for the fact that tickets are sold. Pitt fans bought season tickets this year, largely in anticipation of the Penn State game, so if nothing else, the tickets are in the hands of Pitt fans; you’d think people would go to the game rather than just waste the ticket. That was somewhat the case in 2016, when Marshall drew 45,246 and Georgia Tech saw 47,425 come to Heinz Field.

But last week’s game created some real frustration, some real disgust and, in the worst case scenario, some real apathy.

Plus, you and I both know that the first incomplete pass this Saturday, the first failed drive, the first short-of-the-sticks pass or draw handoff on third down is going to be met with a chorus of boos. The offense is the target of much derision right now, and unless Pitt scores on its first possession, the fans are probably going to let those players and coaches hear it.

So maybe it would be better to get away this weekend. Play on the road and (hopefully) get some things sorted out. But that’s not the schedule, and if Pitt is going to fix things, they’re going to have to do it in front of a home crowd that might be a bit demanding.

You beat Georgia Tech with offense
It’s funny: when you think of Georgia Tech (or Navy, for that matter), the question is always about defense:

How does the defense stop that option system?

That’s always the big question, but I think the reality is, the other side of the ball is probably the one that will decide the outcome of the game.

Consider that, in 2013, Georgia Tech rushed for 276 yards and 21 points; that’s about 20 yards and 14 points under the season averages for the Jackets in 2013. Plus, that was one of Aaron Donald’s most dominant games, when he had 11 tackles - all solo - 6 tackles for loss, 1 sack and 2 forced fumbles. Defense was fine in that game.

But Pitt’s offense gave up five sacks and the running backs had 19 net yards of rushing. The offense was the issue.

In 2014…do I need to rehash that one? Here’s a hint: Pitt’s first five offensive possessions all ended the same way.

Things turned around in 2015. Pitt ran the ball for 200 yards, beat Georgia Tech in time of possession and won on a last-minute field goal. The Jackets still had 376 yards on the ground, but an effective offense gave the Panthers the advantage.

In 2016 at Heinz Field, Pitt won again on a Chris Blewitt field goal. But the Panthers put up 215 rushing yards and matched Georgia Tech in time of possession. Pitt also held GT to 241 rushing yards, which helped, but as was the case in 2015, the Panthers topped 30 points and managed to outscore the Jackets.

Last year in Atlanta was a pretty egregious example in the other direction. Pitt’s offense was terrible after its first drive, despite being gifted four possessions via Georgia Tech fumbles. The Panthers converted just one third down, rushed for 37 yards as a team (Jordan Whitehead, Quadree Henderson and the running backs ran for 57) and lost time of possession by 10 minutes.

I’m not big on time of possession as an indicator stat in every game; some teams nowadays aren’t built to win that way. But against Georgia Tech, I think it’s a crucial number, and the last five games have played to that stat: whichever team won time of possession in the Pitt-Georgia Tech games also won the game.

Because that’s the key: you have to keep the Jackets’ offense on the sidelines. Their offense is built to pile up rushing yards and you’re never going to fully stop it if they’re on the field. The only way to hold back the yards - and, by extension, the points - is to keep them off the field by keeping your own offense on the field.

If Pitt wins on Saturday, it will most likely be a victory propelled by the likes of Kenny Pickett, Qadree Ollison and the Panthers’ offense. If that group hasn’t figured out some of the issues that plagued the Penn State game, then it will be a long afternoon.

There’s still the option to deal with - and that’s not a bad thing
It’s not the worst thing in the world to face this Georgia Tech offense this week.

Granted, nobody wants to play against the option. Nobody wants to see the triple option and deal with it because, honesty, it’s a major pain in the butt. But working on defending that scheme does provide something helpful: it gives you an opportunity to take your mind off what happened Saturday night.

Facing this offense is a chance to put everything from Penn State behind you. You have to have extreme focus on learning responsibilities and assignments and keys or else this offense is going to blow your doors off. If you spend the week feeling sorry for yourself about what happened against PSU, you’re going to get smoked on Saturday.

So after the requisite film breakdown and grade assignment and all of that in the aftermath of the Penn State game, the Pitt players and coaches were able to - they had to - put it all behind them quite quickly and move on to the next task at hand.

And I don’t think this just applies to the defense. Even on offense, there’s something different to get ready for since Georgia Tech is now running a 3-4 scheme; that’s atypical from GT teams in the past and it’s atypical in that you usually don’t face odd-man fronts.

So both sides of the ball have something different to get ready for, and it should be different enough to provide a thorough distraction from what happened on Saturday night. Fans won’t forget 51-6 anytime soon, but the players have to, and the Yellow Jackets could be exactly what they need.

Now they just have to figure out how to stop the option and score on the 3-4.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Is that who you are?
I’m always hesitant to make broad generalizations based on specific and acute events. One game is usually just one game, just like one recruit is just one recruit.

But Saturday was such a thing to behold, such a monstrosity of failure in so many ways, that it’s tough not to draw some conclusions out of it. And while I don’t know if I agree with all of the conclusions that have been drawn since Saturday night, I do think there’s something extra riding on this week’s game.

Quite simply, it’s a chance for Pitt to answer the question that led this section of the column:

Is that Penn State game really who you are?

Are you the punt-fumbling, snap-bumbling, back-blocking, facemasking, false-starting mess trying to run up the gut on fourth-and-3 with the head coach costing 15 yards? Are you the type of team that gets blown out at home by 45 points and lets it torpedo the season? Or are you the type of team that responds, that says, ‘No, that’s not us,’ and comes back with a solid win to start 1-0 in the ACC for the first time in three years?

That’s the question in front of Pitt this week. The Georgia Tech game won’t make or break the season. I mean, it probably won’t, because a season is a collection of 12 games and each game is an individual statement about who you are as players, coaches, a team and a program.

But there comes a point in each season where you find out exactly who you are, a point that goes a long way in defining exactly what your season will be.

I don’t think the Penn State game was that point; how Pitt responds to the Penn State game, hosting a Coastal foe in a winnable game at home - that will be one of those points. Last year, I think there were two sort of defining games. It wasn’t Penn State or Oklahoma State or even Miami (that was, ideally, more a definition of who Pitt will be in the future than it was a definition of who Pitt was in 2017).

No, the defining games of 2017, to me, were Syracuse and Duke. In the former, Pitt was just not good enough offensively to overcome an opponent who was beatable. And in the latter, Pitt was just good enough on both sides of the ball to be a little better than a comparable foe. I think you can look at those two games and get a pretty clear picture of who Pitt was in 2017.

A year from now, I think we’ll look back at a few games to get a pretty clear picture of who Pitt was in 2018, and I imagine this week’s game against Georgia Tech will be one of them.

Where is Paris?
I hate to get into this topic because it seems like low-hanging fruit and, to be honest, cornerback was among the least of Pitt’s worries in the Penn State game. But I can’t help asking the same question everyone else is asking:

Where is Paris Ford?

The redshirt freshman didn’t play a single snap on Saturday night. The “red hat” - the guy in all red who signals when the commercials are ending - was on the field more than Ford was. Pat Narduzzi spent more time on the field drawing a penalty than Ford spent playing football. Strength coach Dave Andrews was on the field more than Ford just trying to bring Narduzzi back to the sidelines.

And it just doesn’t make sense. Sure, the cornerbacks played fine against Penn State. Dane Jackson and Phillipie Motley didn’t give up much, and their backups - Damarri Mathis, who played 38 snaps against PSU, and Jason Pinnock, who played eight - did fine in their own spots.

But there were no snaps for Ford, a player the coaches raved about this offseason and who, by all accounts, was one of the team’s playmakers in spring camp and training camp? No handful of snaps at corner? No snaps on special teams? Not even a snap or two on offense, since that side of the ball looked like it needed some help?

I just don’t get it. And if the case being made is that Pitt actually has playable depth at cornerback, that’s fine; why not move Ford back to safety? Narduzzi said last week that he sees Ford moving back to safety down the road; if that’s true, and he’s not going to get reps at corner - where he was moved, ostensibly, to get more reps - then you might as well move him back now and let him start learning that job again so he can be ready to go later this season or next season.

I’ll say it again for the people in the back: Pitt’s corners played pretty well against Penn State, and Paris Ford might not have changed the outcome of the game. But for a player as talented as him to not get on the field…

And you know what? I’ll include Therran Coleman here, too. He played 16 snaps against Albany in a reserve role at corner and I thought, ‘Maybe he’s going to get some opportunities.’

Nope. Not only did Coleman not play against Penn State, he was running the scout team this week as Pitt gets ready for Georgia Tech.

To be fair, Coleman has done that job before and, by all accounts, he has done it well. And truthfully, this week’s game probably isn’t the kind of game where Pitt will be using a ton of cornerbacks, so maybe he can serve the team best by giving the defense a look at a playmaking option quarterback.

But one more time: there wasn’t a spot for Coleman against Penn State? Remember, last season he made his debut playing as a nickel against Syracuse; while Penn State’s run game was a threat that Pitt had to respect, it seems like a nickel defense with three corners could have had a place.

(Of course, Pitt didn’t use any defensive sub-package against PSU aside from a half-dozen or so snaps in the “Delta” package with three safeties, but that’s another debate.)

In the end, maybe we’re debating the alignment of deck chairs on the Titanic that was the Penn State game. Ford or Coleman weren’t going to keep Patrick Jones from committing two crucial penalties on third down, and they probably wouldn’t have helped Kirk Christodoulou hold onto the punt snap that ended up leading to a game-changing touchdown (in my view, that TD at the end of the first half was the real turning point). But like I said, they’re talented players; doesn’t there have to be a place for them on the field somewhere?

Even if, you know, it’s on offense…

ONE PREDICTION WE’LL MAKE

Pickett will be better
If nothing else, Pitt has to hope this prediction comes true.

Look, Pitt had a lot of issues on Saturday night. They have been well-documented and, at this point, they’ve probably been talked about enough. But one that shouldn’t be completely ignored was the play at quarterback.

And that play has to get better this week.

Kenny Pickett’s first “big” start of 2018 didn’t go well. He struggled against Penn State, feeling the heat from the pass rush, tucking and running too quickly and not making enough of the time he did have in the pocket. He didn’t have a ton of time, but he had more time than he used. And while his receivers didn’t always get open, they were open enough to catch passes.

But Pickett seemed uncomfortable, darting out of the pocket a second or so before he needed to and seeming to scramble as much as he attempted passes. That’s probably not entirely accurate, but it seemed that way and resembled the performance of a player making his third career start.

Which is what Pickett is.

We also have been told that Pickett’s two biggest strengths are his poise and his work ethic in studying the game; starting this week and going forward, Pitt will need him to draw on the former so he can maximize the latter. He has to keep calm in the pocket, feeling pressure but not seeing it, as they say, and understanding how long he can hang in there before the ball has to come out.

If he can better manage that, then he’ll be able to draw on all the film study he puts in, all the time he spends with offensive coordinator Shawn Watson learning the plays and the calls and the checks and what he will see out of the defense. With poise, he’ll be able to read the defense, read the pressure and know where the ball needs to go.

Then his natural physical tools can take over. He’s a sharp, accurate passer who can make plays through the air. And, of course, he’s also got his feet as additional weapons, and he can use that, too. He should use that, in fact, just like Blake Barnett did last week for USF when he ran for 91 yards and two touchdowns against Georgia Tech.

But Pickett has to be a passer, first and foremost. Getting that part of his game going at a high level is what can jumpstart this offense, and it’s the one part that hasn’t really come to fruition yet. I’m saying it happens this week. Barnett, like I mentioned earlier, ran for 91 yards and two scores against GT, and he also went 21-of-31 for 202 yards and two more touchdowns.

I don’t know if Pickett has four touchdowns in him, but I think he’ll be good for at least two. And if those two come through the air, it should mean good things for the passing game - which should mean good things for Pitt in this game.