The 3-2-1 Column: Depth, super seniors, RB predictions and more
MORE HEADLINES - What stood out in Pitt's practice on Thursday? | Narduzzi on Mumpfield, the OL depth and more | Slideshow: Photos from Pitt's practices this week | What Is the Steel City NIL Club? | PODCAST: Week Two of camp, NIL clubs and more | Versatility and athleticism define Pitt's LB corps
In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the depth of the offensive line, breakout players, super seniors and a wild prediction on Pitt's running backs.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Week Two (almost) in the books
Week Two of training camp 2022 is coming to a close, and so far, things are pretty much what we expected them to be.
The quarterback competition is officially unsettled, but the expectation continues to be that Kedon Slovis will be the starter. Nothing has changed there.
The running backs and offensive line are all expected to flourish in a new, more balanced, offense. Nothing has changed there.
Gavin Bartholomew is expected to build on his impressive freshman season. Nothing has changed there.
The receivers are expected to come out of Jordan Addison’s shadow with explosiveness and playmaking ability. Nothing has changed there.
The defensive line is expected to be a handful for opposing offenses. Nothing has changed there.
The linebackers are expected to be led by SirVocea Dennis while a strong foundation of depth emerges around him. Nothing has changed there.
And the secondary is expected to be exactly what it looks like: a bunch of returning experience and upperclassmen. Nothing has changed there.
What we thought would be the main storylines, talking points and narratives two weeks ago has mostly held serve through the first fortnight of training camp. Does that make for a somewhat boring camp? Maybe, a little. But the other thing that’s been happening “as expected” is the approach of the team.
This is a group that is very focused on its goals, and it also has a strong understanding of how its goals changed after last season’s success. They entered 2021 with a goal of winning the Coastal, getting to the ACC Championship Game and getting another shot at winning the league.
Now that the players experienced that level of success, they want more. It’s not enough to win the Coastal, and it’s not enough to win the ACC again. I mean, accomplishing that - winning back-to-back conference titles - would certainly be considered a success. But these players are looking for more.
Solomon DeShields said this week that being ranked No. 16 in the coaches poll was disrespectful; he thinks Pitt should be No. 1. John Morgan doubled down on his offseason prediction of a national championship.
These aren’t empty words. This team believes it has what it takes to get to the next level - the highest level of the sport.
Will Pitt win a national championship? Probably not. The odds don’t favor that outcome. But these players believe, and rightfully so, that they should be in the conversation. They know they’ll have the opportunity to play themselves into the conversation, and they believe they will do it.
Their expectation for 2022 is success at the highest level.
After two weeks of camp, nothing has changed there.
That’s deep
I talked about this topic a bit this week, but I figured I would bring it up again in today’s column.
Putting it succinctly, this is probably the deepest offensive line I’ve seen in my years covering Pitt. And I don’t think it’s all that close.
You start with the guys at the top of the list, the veteran players who decided to come back for one more year. I’m talking about the sixth-year seniors: Carter Warren, Marcus Minor, Owen Drexel and Gabe Houy.
That’s a talented, experienced group full of returning starters who could not have been on Pitt’s roster in 2022 if not for the extra year of eligibility all players got for being on a roster during the Covid year of 2020.
Thanks to the Covid year exemption, Pitt has 105 career starts coming back this season from Warren, Minor, Drexel and Houy. Add in Jake Kradel and his 25 career starts, and you’ve got a potential starting line with four sixth-year seniors, one fifth-year senior and 130 combined career starts.
Holy moly.
But we all know about those guys, and I said from the start that this section of the column is about the offensive line’s depth - not just the returning experience. So let’s talk depth.
How about top reserve tackle Matt Goncalves? In the last two seasons he has played in 22 games, started eight and logged 762 offensive snaps.
How about top reserve guard Blake Zubovic? In the last two seasons, he has appeared in 20 games, started six and played 653 snaps. And he can also play center, so between Zubovic and Goncalves, you’ve got a quality reserve available for any of the five positions.
But there’s even more depth beyond those guys. Branson Taylor played about 50 snaps last season but was right behind Goncalves as a top reserve at tackle. Ryan Jacoby only played in one game last season, but that’s pretty impressive for a lineman who transferred to Pitt in August, and the coaching staff is very confident about both of those guys.
Now you’re at four reserves who all look like they can step in and play at a high level. That’s two tackles and two guards, but one of the tackles has played a lot of guard and one of the guards has played a lot of center, so you’re pretty much covered at every spot, and I genuinely believe that Dave Borbely believes he can win with just about any combination of those four reserves and the five starters.
In fact, there’s probably a decent chance we see Goncalves at right tackle to start the season since Houy has been limited this summer, and I don’t think Borbely is too concerned about it.
It really is a wealth of depth along the line, and the only thing better than having a good offensive line is having a good offensive line with quality players behind them.
Pitt’s got a good offensive line and quality players behind them. That’s huge for this season, and it doesn’t hurt as the Panthers take a peek at 2023.
Recruiting your own team
There was one other angle to the storyline of Warren, Minor, Drexel and Houy coming back for 2022, and I don’t think we’ve talked about it too much but we should, because Borbely deserves some credit.
But I’m not talking about giving Borbely credit for getting those four sixth-year players to come back; rather, I’m talking about giving him credit for getting the other guys around those sixth-year players to come back.
Think about it: say you’re Matt Goncalves. You’ve been at Pitt since 2019. You redshirted as a freshman that year and then got your chance in 2020 when Covid wrecked the roster prior to the Virginia Tech game. You did your part, though, stepping in and playing 86 snaps at left tackle to help lead a huge win over the Hokies. You got the start a week later in a much tougher challenge against Clemson, but even though the team got blown out, you played well, allowing just one pressure on 55 pass-rush snaps.
You knew a lot of upperclassmen were coming back in 2021, but you were a good soldier and kept working away, hoping for an opportunity that ultimately came when some injuries hit the offensive line at midseason. You end up playing 520 snaps for the ACC champs, all the while knowing that 2022 would be the year when you would finally get your chance.
Until Warren and Minor and Drexel and Houy announce they were coming back for one more year.
That’s one more year of experienced linemen, which should be a boost for the team. But it’s also one more year of sitting behind those guys if you’re Goncalves. Now you’re a redshirt junior entering your fourth year and wondering if you’re going to get more than one year to be a starter.
That’s tough. Meanwhile, the transfer portal is sitting there, with plenty of options for an experienced Power Five tackle. Carson Van Lynn, who likely would have been behind Goncalves if he had stayed at Pitt, left the Panthers and ended up at Duke; surely Goncalves would have had some good Power Five options.
But he stayed.
I have to imagine the thought of transferring crossed his mind. Why wouldn’t it? All over the country, guys in better situations than him left for another opportunity.
But Goncalves stayed.
I think Borbely probably deserves a lot of credit for that, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a few other offensive linemen he had conversations with this offseason. A guy like Branson Taylor, for example, could have a better shot at starting somewhere else than he’ll have at Pitt this season. But he’s still here, and I’m going to give Borbely credit for that.
This is college football right now. Pitt lost nearly 20 players to the transfer portal this offseason (and added nine), and we have all seen the volume of movement across the country. Lots of players transfer, but the Panthers managed to hold on to a bunch of guys who were not guaranteed starting jobs, even if they’re probably good enough to merit those jobs.
Running back was another position I thought of. Getting Israel Abanikanda, Rodney Hammond and Vincent Davis to come back - not to mention Daniel Carter, or the addition of C’Bo Flemister - is a testament to Pat Narduzzi and Andre Powell, because those guys probably had to do some work to keep that group together.
They had to recruit their own team this offseason, and that’s the reality of college football in 2022.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Who else can be a super senior?
A brief digression here, but the topic of those offensive linemen coming back for their sixth years got me to thinking about the roster - what it is this season and what it will be for next couple years.
How many more super seniors could Pitt potentially have in the coming seasons?
For those who came in late, “super senior” is the unofficial title that has been given to players who have expired their “regular” eligibility but are playing one more year thanks to the NCAA’s Covid exemption.
Guys like Carter Warren and Marcus Minor and Owen Drexel and Gabe Houy have already finished their normal five years of eligibility; they were redshirt seniors last season. But now they’re in that extra year, so we’ve taken to calling them super seniors.
Pitt has seven super seniors on the roster this year: the four offensive linemen, Dartmouth quarterback transfer Derek Kyler, defensive end Deslin Alexandre and Missouri State linebacker transfer Tylar Wiltz.
Those guys are all sixth-year players, super seniors who will finally be done with their eligibility after this season.
But what does the situation look like for 2023 and beyond?
Pitt’s other 20 scholarship seniors and redshirt seniors all have the option to come back for 2023. That’s quarterbacks Nick Patti and Kedon Slovis, running backs Vincent Davis and C’Bo Flemister, receiver Jared Wayne, offensive linemen Jake Kradel and Blake Zubovic, defensive ends Habakkuk Baldonado, Chris Maloney and John Morgan, defensive tackles Tyler Bentley, Devin Danielson and David Green, linebackers SirVocea Dennis, Brandon George and Shayne Simon, cornerbacks Marquis Williams and A.J. Woods and safeties Erick Hallett and Judson Tallandier.
That’s a lot of guys who could come back - guys whose scholarship spots would otherwise go to recruits in the current class of 2023.
For 2024, all of the current juniors and redshirt juniors (there are 20 of them in total) can come back as super seniors. And in 2025, the current redshirt sophomores (there are only six of them) can come back.
After that, the super senior phenomena will be over at Pitt.
I don’t think you need me to tell you that not all 46 of those current redshirt seniors/seniors/redshirt juniors/juniors/redshirt sophomores will opt to return for an extra year of eligibility. You can probably go through that list of 20 current seniors and redshirt seniors and make a pretty good guess of which players are more likely to return and which aren’t.
Ultimately, there will be five classes of players who will have the option to exercise the super senior option. Kenny Pickett was part of the first group; the current redshirt sophomores - players who were recruits in the class of 2020 - will be the last one.
I expect the numbers to dwindle each year, but it’s hard not to notice the impact the NCAA’s Covid year has had for Pitt. That rule allowed Kenny Pickett to come back for 2021 and it has given the Panthers a bevy of returning experience on the offensive line in 2022.
Will there be any breakout players?
This is a question that occurred to me this week, probably while I was standing at practice or working on a camp report or something along those lines - after all, that’s how I spent most of the week.
But as I looked at the team on the field, with all of the returning starters and the top contributors and the depth and all of that, something occurred to me. A question, as a matter of fact, that seemed like it might make for a nice 3-2-1 Column topic:
Who are the candidates to be breakout players at Pitt this season? And will there be any at all?
I’m really not sure. Let’s go through the lineup.
At quarterback, I’m not going to count a former all-conference player as a breakout player. The same goes for the running backs and offensive line, where everybody is back. I suppose there could be a breakout performance from the second tight end, but Gavin Bartholomew is still going to command the attention there. And while Konata Mumpfield and Bub Means are new faces in the receiver room, I think at this point anything less than a great season from Mumpfield will be a disappointment and we’ve hyped Means to the point where I’m not sure he can really “break out,” at least in the sense of being a surprise.
On defense, there’s so much proven returning talent that it’s tough to project a breakout. The two most likely candidates, in my mind, are Dayon Hayes and Bangally Kamara. I’ve written about both of these guys a bunch: I think Hayes will be the fourth defensive end but will out-produce one or two of the guys ahead of him, and I think Kamara is going to blow up as an athletic playmaker at outside linebacker.
I guess Kamara would be my pick for breakout player this year. Sure, he was named the most improved defensive player in spring camp, which means he’s very much on the radar for a good season. But as a guy who hasn’t played all that much in his career, I think Kamara is in line for a huge uptick in snaps and a commensurate surge in production.
But that’s it. I don’t see a lot of other candidates, and that’s not because there aren’t worthy reserves. It’s more a reflection of the talent ahead of them. This team brings back a lot of guys from a roster that went 11-3 and won the ACC championship last season.
If anybody truly has a breakout season, they’re going to have to earn it.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt will have the ACC’s leading rusher two years in a row
Is this officially the point where we go overboard?
Maybe. And on multiple fronts.
The point where I go overboard with expectations for Pitt’s running game in 2022. The point where I go overboard with expectations for Israel Abanikanda this season. The point where I go overboard with expectations for Rodney Hammond in 2023.
Yes, I suppose this is that point. I’ve come up to the precipice of getting really ridiculous, and baby, I’m diving right in.
Pitt is going to have the ACC’s leading rusher - two years in a row. 2022 and 2023.
(The beauty of this is, we have to wait like 16 months to find out if this prediction comes true, and I know I’ll say a lot of ridiculous stuff between now and then so this will probably/hopefully be forgotten.)
Look, anyone who reads these columns or watches the live stream or talks to me about Pitt football knows what I think about Israel Abanikanda. I think he’s got NFL size, NFL speed, NFL moves and NFL hands. I think he gets drafted in the first three rounds. I think he is the total package and as complete of a back as we have seen at Pitt in quite some time.
The big if, of course, is whether or not he can stay healthy. But if he does, then I think he performs in a big way this season. A huge way. A lead-the-conference way.
And then, after Abanikanda gets picked in the NFL Draft next spring, Pitt reloads with Rodney Hammond.
I think a lot of Pitt fans recognize that Hammond had some flashes last year, but with only 101 carries, he didn’t have a lot of opportunities to show it. Still, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry, good for ninth among ACC backs with at least 100 attempts. He ran for 31 first downs - an average of one first down gained on every 3.26 carries, which was the fourth-best first down rate among the 100-carry backs in the conference. 12.9% of his carries gained at least 10 yards; that was a better percentage than Virginia Tech’s Raheem Blackshear, Boston College’s Patrick Garwo, Clemson’s Will Shipley, Duke’s Mataeo Durant, Louisville’s Jalen Mitchell, Florida State’s Jashaun Corbin, Miami’s Jaylan Knighton or any of Wake Forest’s trio of Christian Beal-Smith, Christian Turner and Justice Ellison.
What I’m saying is, pound-for-pound, Hammond was one of the most productive backs in the ACC last season. I think he’ll be even better this year, and when Abanikanda is gone in 2023, I think he’ll shine. I think he’ll lead the ACC in rushing.
What will it take for Abanikanda or Hammond to pace the conference rushing totals? Last season, Syracuse’s Sean Tucker was the ACC’s top rusher with 1,515 yards, followed by Durant (1,249 yards), North Carolina’s Ty Chandler (1,097 yards) and Garwo (1,048 yards). Nobody else topped 1,000. So let’s start there: Abanikanda and Hammond will have to get at least 1,000 yards to have a shot at the top spot in the conference, and they probably need to set the target somewhere north of 1,200.
That means they’ll need volume: three of those 1,000-yard rushers last season had at least 200 carries, and Abanikanda (this year) and Hammond (next year) will probably need to get that many attempts on the books, too. Pitt hasn’t had a running back get 200 carries since James Conner in 2016, although Qadree Ollison had 194 in 2018, so that’s pretty close.
In the last three years, no Pitt back has had more than 143 carries. But we all know why those numbers were so low, and that brings me to my final point of confidence with Abanikanda and Hammond:
Aside from their natural talents (which are considerable), those guys will have Frank Cignetti as their offensive coordinator. Last season, with Cignetti calling the plays, Garwo rushed 207 times in 12 games at Boston College.
It’s in Cignetti’s DNA to rely on a lead back, and Pat Narduzzi said this week that he wants a top dog, too.
I’m here to say that it will be Abanikanda this year and Hammond next year. Barring injury, those two will lead the ACC.