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The future, the present, the defense and what Jeff Capel does for an encore - all that and more in this week’s 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Get ahead of yourself if you want
You don’t need my permission, but I’m going to give it anyway:

Go ahead. Look down the road. Look ahead to the remaining games on Pitt’s schedule and let your wildest dreams take flight. Look at Delaware this weekend and a seven-game stretch of ACC games against opponents who are very much beatable. Every opponent on the schedule has at least one loss; four of them have two losses.

Six out of the seven ACC teams are ranked below Pitt in ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings, and the one team that’s ranked ahead is Miami, whose stellar 2-2 resume thus far is highlighted by wins over Bethune-Cookman and Central Michigan (and is lowlighted by a loss at North Carolina; I mean, who loses to North Carolina? Oh wait).

So go ahead and do it. Think big about where this Pitt team can go this season.

I know the apprehension you’re probably feeling. You probably think you’ve been here so many times before and Pitt has pulled the football out just as you’re about to kick it, right? You’re probably thinking back on all those times Pitt has been in this position and then laid an egg. I mean, there haven’t really been that many times that it has happened, but you probably feel like there are a lot of them and you can’t shake the feeling that if you get your hopes too high, Pitt will just let you down.

Or maybe you’ve watched too many press conferences and you think that you as a fan need to focus on one game at a time and not look ahead, because when you look ahead or take an opponent for granted, that’s when you get caught. That’s when you slip.

Okay, fine. Let’s start with that notion, and I’ll let you in on a little secret:

Nothing you do, say or think matters right now.

You can look ahead all you want. You can buy a plane ticket to Charlotte. Hell, you can buy a plane ticket to Jacksonville or Orlando (or find some midpoint in between). Go for it. It’s not going to have one iota of impact on what the team does.

The players and the coaches are the ones who need to stay focused. They’re the ones who can’t overlook Delaware. They’re the ones who need to take it one week at a time. They’re the ones who need to <insert cliché here about avoiding trap games>. Because they’re the ones who are actually going to be on the field winning and losing games.

But let’s go back to the apprehension, the anxiety some Pitt fans are feeling as they sit here staring at what seems to be a situation rife with optimism. I mean, these Panthers have a lot going for them right now: They’ve got a defense that is deep and playing at a very high level. They’ve got an offense that is still firing and misfiring but trending toward the former more than the latter. And they’ve got a schedule that sets up about as favorably as any in the country.

Yes, they’re in an 0-1 hole after losing the opener to Virginia. But there isn’t an unwinnable game left on the schedule (and the last time they were on the field for an unwinnable game, they won).

Don’t look now, but Pitt might actually be a good team with a schedule that is set up for success. It’s a pretty good spot to be in, and they should hit the ACC slate with a full head of steam. Will there be another loss somewhere in the final eight games? Probably. The odds point to that, and the Panthers certainly aren’t a perfect or complete team.

But I think there’s enough reason for optimism that fans can sit back right now and enjoy it.

There’s depth, part I
“Depth” sure has been a key word around Pitt’s defense this year. Prior to the season, there was something of a mantra that “Pitt’s defense may or may not be the best one Pat Narduzzi has had, but it’s the deepest.” Even if both ends of that statement are now looking to be true - more on that in a second - the latter portion has definitely held up.

I can’t get over this number: 25. That’s how many players Pitt used on defense against UCF Saturday. Not every one of those guys played 50 snaps; the bulk of the work still went to the likes of Dane Jackson and Damar Hamlin and Patrick Jones. But 25 guys saw playing time, and even if it was one snap for freshman Brandon Hill, it’s not far-fetched to say that every snap in that game was meaningful, given how close the end result was.

But there are a couple things that, to me, are pretty remarkable about how Pitt’s defense played and the depth it showed on Saturday. For starters, there was the willingness of the coaches to roll with the backups for longer stretches. UCF’s tempo makes it tough for defenses to substitute as much as they might like to, and while Pitt’s coaches and players actually did a really good job at making substitutions, it was also pretty clear that Pat Narduzzi and the defensive staff trusted the backups to stay on the field.

Like in the Delta package; that’s Pitt’s go-to personnel grouping on third down and it features three linemen, three linebackers and five defensive backs. In most games against opponents who run “regular” tempo, Pitt will make sure to get the top Delta package on the field - specifically the linemen, which usually consists of Jones, Deslin Alexandre and Jaylen Twyman.

On Saturday, though, the coaches let the backup linemen - ends John Morgan and Habakkuk Baldonado along with David Green or Tyler Bentley at tackle - stay on the field with the Delta rather than run the risk of too much substitution. By my count, the Panthers ran 10 snaps out of the Delta and used the top unit on six of them.

Was there a drop-off on the other four snaps? Not that I could see, since UCF only converted one third down against the Delta, and that came with the first unit on the field. The Knights were 0/4 against the “backup” Delta personnel.

There’s a lot that goes into that stat, like the way the coaches called the defense on third down and how they were able to keep Dillon Gabriel from really getting going (at least on third downs). But you can’t deny the results, and they were favorable for the defensive linemen - starters and backups.

There’s depth, part II
The other thing that stood out to me about Pitt’s defensive depth in Saturday’s game was where it came from. Yes, seven of the 11 starters on defense were recruited in the classes of 2015 and 2016, including grad transfer Kylan Johnson, who fits the narrative here as a veteran player. And the other four starters were in the class of 2017.

The backups, though, those other 14 players who saw snaps on defense Saturday, were overwhelmingly on the younger end of the spectrum. In fact, more than half of the defensive reserves who got into the game were recruited in the class of 2018.

Look at the snap counts: Habakkuk Baldonado (36), Erick Hallett (35), Devin Danielson (28), John Morgan (15), Marquis Williams (14), David Green (9), Tyler Bentley (8) and Wendell Davis (8) - all from the 2018 class.

Obviously there’s a range of snaps, with Baldonado and Hallett, who both have increased roles in the Delta package, seeing more snaps than the guys on the low end. But Green and Bentley both played in the Delta as well (they rotated on the second unit). Morgan had two tackles on his 15 snaps and both were tackles for loss. Davis didn’t have a tackle in his nine snaps but he did recover the blocked punt and score a touchdown on it.

Pitt got quality contributions out of all of those guys, regardless of snaps, and they did it against a top-10 offense. All as second-year players.

That’s really impressive. More than saying something like, “Wow, they’re outplaying their recruiting rankings,” it’s impressive because they’re making valuable contributions to the defense right now. And when you watch some of these guys play, especially the ends but really all of them, it’s not hard to imagine the linkage that should be created in Pitt’s defense.

From the primary starters on this year’s defense, Pitt will lose Amir Watts, Saleem Brightwell, Kylan Johnson, Dane Jackson and Damar Hamlin. That’s it. I mean, those are some good players, but when stacked up against the sheer volume of players coming back, it’s hard to feel like the defense is going to drop too far in their absence.

All of the defensive ends are back. All of the tackles other than Watts are back. And a whole bunch of linebackers and defensive backs return. Those guys will come into 2020 with a bunch of experience and, quite possibly, a track record of making positive impacts.

Oh, and in case you forgot, they’ll be getting Rashad Weaver and Keyshon Camp back next year.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What needs to improve?
Okay, there’s a lot of optimism around this team right now. Optimism that is, in my view, generally well-earned. But let’s take a critical view and look at the other side:

What are the biggest concerns for Pitt as the team enters the final eight games of the regular season?

The first one is easy: it’s Alex Kessman. Pitt’s redshirt junior kicker has missed three consecutive kicks, whiffing on both field goal attempts against UCF and, of course, that fateful 19-yard attempt from the goal line at Penn State. On the season, he has hit three of his eight attempts, making just one kick beyond 27 yards (a 41-yard field goal against Ohio). He has missed from 50, 45, 41, 35 and 19. That’s a problem.

Give Pat Narduzzi credit. He says that, after the second missed field goal against UCF, he told Kessman that Pitt would need him to make the game-winning kick, and that was true: Kessman nailed the extra point after the “Pitt Special” play, which turned out to be the game-winning point in a 35-34 victory. Narduzzi has a knack for keeping his kickers’ heads up - remember him giving Chris Blewitt a kiss on the cheek at Clemson three years ago? - but even he has to be a little concerned, despite his proclamation this week that Pitt will (probably) not miss another field goal the rest of the season.

Then again, Narduzzi started doing that thing where he gets cagey in talking about something when he alluded multiple times to some mysterious issue with Kessman and how that issue will be corrected. So maybe he knows something we don’t know and everything will be fine. We’ll see. One way or another, they need to get those issues resolved.

Offensively, it’s just a continued work in progress. Whether that’s Kenny Pickett or the offensive line or the run game or the pass-catchers, the whole unit just needs to keep getting more comfortable in executing the offense. The passing game looked really good at Penn State and pretty solid against UCF; the run game was nonexistent at Penn State but showed serious signs of life against UCF. So take the best of both and build on that.

But they have to keep building. The offense isn’t out of the woods yet, and I think there will be a few more stumbles.

And then there’s the defense. Front to back, this unit is playing really well right now. They’re talented and deep and, perhaps most importantly, they’re fast. The back seven is as fast as I’ve seen in covering Pitt for the last 14 years. And that’s not hyperbole. I would take this group as a whole in a foot race against any group since 2005, and I only pick that cutoff date because that was when I started covering the team.

So even when they get beat on a play, like that long run the UCF running back, they can still save it with speed, like when Damar Hamlin used speed I didn’t think he had to run the guy down.

The defense has to stay healthy, of course. And they have to keep cleaning up details so you don’t get slot receivers running right at the safeties full-speed. But there’s a lot to like with this defense right now, and not too many nits to pick, so to speak.

What’s next for Capel?
Jeff Capel and the Pitt hoops program got a nice start to the 2020 class this week with the commitment of Noah Collier. He’s a forward prospect who can play in the post or slip out to the wing and make plays out there. Cal and Clemson were his other top schools, and he also had offers from UConn, Penn State, Virginia and more.

Rivals.com college basketball recruiting analyst Corey Evans thinks Collier can fill the box score in a variety of categories and can defend multiple positions - all of which sounds like a player who can fit in well with the Pitt roster.

So Collier is a nice start, but he might be just that - a start - because Capel appears to be on the verge of a run. Four-star point guard R.J. Davis was on campus for an official visit last weekend and four-star center John Hugley will be here this weekend; those two are probably Capel’s top two targets.

Actually, there’s no “probably” about it; they are the top two targets, and for good reason. Hugley fills a need under the basket and Davis is the No. 14 point guard prospect in the nation, the kind of athlete who can get on the court right away. Pitt could use a point guard to do that since all signs point to Capel and company proceeding as if they do not expect Xavier Johnson to be on the team next season.

Davis and Hugley seem to be 1 and 1a, and while I think Davis is the No. 1 there, you can make a case either way. And if Capel can land both guys, which seems not just likely but perhaps looming, they and Collier will make one heck of a 2020 class.

If Johnson does leave, that will give Capel four scholarship spots to use on the class, and getting Collier, Davis and Hugley to fill three of those four would be huge. For the fourth spot, there are a lot of options, from wings like five-star Earl Timberlake and western Pa. standout DJ Gordon to forwards like Ebe Dowuona, who is also taking an official visit this weekend, and Cliff Omoruyi, who was on campus for an unofficial visit a few weeks ago.

Any one of those players joining a class of Davis, Hugley and Collier would set Pitt up with a nice foundation for the next few years.

The Pitt football program is generating some on-field momentum right now, and it looks like the hoops program could be on the verge of generating some off-court action as well.

ONE PREDICTION

It’s prediction time and I don’t know where I’m going with this one.

Last week, I predicted that Pitt would keep its streak alive and hold UCF under its season averages for yards and points. That happened, so kudos to me. I mean, kudos to the Pitt defense for actually doing it, but kudos to me for predicting it.

So what do I do for an encore to that prediction?

It’s lame to predict a win this week; Pitt should most certainly beat Delaware and win the game handily. The last time I looked, the Panthers were 28-point favorites, and while that seems like a lot, it’s probably a fair number given how Pitt’s defense is playing and the overall improvements to the offense.

So what should our prediction be?

I could go ultra-vanilla and say something like, “Taysir Mack will score his first touchdown of the season” or “Pitt will have at least 200 rushing yards.” I kind of expect those two things to happen in this week’s game against Delaware.

I could go ultra-bold and say something like, “Habakkuk Baldonado will have an interception.” That’s my go-to bold prediction every week in the pregame press box prediction-making. And it almost paid off last week; UCF ran a screen pass with Baldonado in the quarterback’s face. He’s going to grab one of those. Just you wait and see.

But I’m not really sure where to go with a prediction this week, and I’ll be honest: when I started writing this section of the 3-2-1 Column, I didn’t really have a clear plan for what my prediction would be. Still don’t, to be honest. So let’s go in the middle of vanilla and bold:

I’ll say Paris Ford gets his first career turnover this week.

That’s a little vanilla because Ford has been really close on two occasions through four games and I think he’s due. But it’s also a little bold because 1. Turnovers are hard to predict, and 2. That boundary safety position doesn’t always produce a lot of turnovers.

But I’m going to bet on Ford making a play this week. I mean, he has made a lot of plays so far and he is Pitt’s leading tackler at this point in the season. I’m just going to bet on him making an even bigger play and getting a turnover - maybe even one that leads to the end zone.

Then again, Ford has a flair for the dramatic, so perhaps he’ll save his turnover for one of the conference games. But I’ll predict he gets it this week.