The 3-2-1 Column: Deja vu, big plays and more
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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re looking back at the Syracuse game, ahead to the Louisville game, offering a mea culpa and thinking about one big thing Pitt needs to do on offense.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Too many memories
There were a lot of things to say about Pitt’s 21-10 win over Syracuse last Saturday, and Pat Narduzzi said most of them in the aftermath of the victory that improved the Panthers’ record to 2-0.
But to Narduzzi’s credit, there was one thing he didn’t say. He didn’t say “A win is a win.”
He has said it in the past when Pitt has emerged victorious after a less-than-stellar performance. But he didn’t say it on Saturday, when his team got an important conference win despite a lackluster showing from the offense, too many penalties and some serious issues on special teams.
Sure, he opened his postgame press conference by saying that the team was 1-0 in the ACC and that was their goal, but almost immediately, he started talking about how the game “was a lot uglier than I would like it to be.”
That wasn’t lip service. Narduzzi used the word “disappointed” four times in less than 11 minutes as he talked about some of the problems he saw on the field - problems that kept his team from closing the door on any hopes Syracuse had for a rally and made the game closer than it needed to be.
That’s encouraging to me. After five years of watching Narduzzi seem to accept any performance as long as the outcome was a win, it was good to see him not pleased with how his team played. It was good to see him make public statements about the big picture, that his team cannot play like it did against Syracuse and make the mistakes it made against Syracuse and expect to win every week.
That’s what the Panthers did last year, and it’s why their record was 8-5 instead of something considerably more impressive, something more representative of the talent on the team.
I know that I was thinking about the 2019 season as I watched Saturday’s game. I was thinking about dropped passes, procedure penalties, fumbles and interceptions because, just like I saw way too many of those things last year, I saw way too many of them again in the 2020 ACC opener.
This is my “correctable mistakes” spiel, and if you’ve read this column before or listened to the Panther-Lair Show podcast, you have heard it more than once. Last season, I tracked those four categories - dropped passes, offensive procedure penalties, fumbles (lost or recovered) and interceptions - and over the course of 13 games, Pitt had 104. That’s eight per game. The Panthers shot themselves in the foot for no good reason, on average, eight times per game.
That’s way too many mistakes for any team, and it was a big part of the reason Pitt’s offense sputtered like it did.
So on Saturday, when the Panthers were rolling out their 2020 offense against Power Five competition for the first time, it was less than encouraging to see those issues again.
There were three illegal formation penalties called on the Panthers’ offense (although two were declined). There were three fumbles (Pitt recovered two of them). There was one interception. And Pro Football Focus dinged Pitt’s pass-catchers with four drops.
3+3+1+4=11
11 correctable mistakes, obvious stuff that was simply a matter of focus.
We used that word a lot last season - focus - and here we are again, talking after the first game against real competition about how Pitt’s offense is making those same lack-of-focus mistakes.
If 2020 is going to be better than 2019, then the improvement has to come in identifiable and tangible areas. Cutting out those offensive mistakes is the clear first step - and possibly the most important step.
Cornerback depth getting tested
We knew all offseason that Pitt’s cornerback depth was likely to get tested in 2020, and sure enough, that has come to pass.
The first blow came when Damarri Mathis suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in August. That took one of the Panthers’ two returning players with significant experience out of the mix, and an already-thin situation got even thinner.
In the season opener, senior Jason Pinnock was in his expected role as the starter, but on the other side of the field was sophomore A.J. Woods, whose first snap against Austin Peay was the first snap he took at cornerback in a game during his college career; when he played as a freshman in 2019, it was only on special teams.
Redshirt sophomore Marquis Williams rotated with Woods, and since it was Austin Peay, the coaches also got some extended playing time for freshman Rashad Battle, who lined up on defense for 25 snaps. I suspect freshmen Jahvante Royal and Hunter Sellers would have gotten some reps, too, but neither was present at Heinz Field for that game.
This past Saturday, the rotation shortened up a bit - either by choice or perhaps by something else. Pinnock still started, but this time it was Williams lining up across from him in the other starting job. And Woods, who played 33 snaps against Austin Peay - the most of any player on Pitt’s defense - was nowhere to be seen.
Actually, in the age of COVID, I shouldn’t say that he was “nowhere to be seen,” since that carries a certain implication. Woods was present on the sideline and in uniform; he even logged a handful of snaps on special teams. But he didn’t play at all on defense.
Maybe that was a reflection on his level of play, but I don’t know if that’s the answer. To go from a starting assignment and 30+ snaps to not one appearance at all - to me, that sounds like a guy who was banged up during the week and was limited on game day as a result.
Either way, it reinforced the underlying premise:
Pitt’s cornerback room is thin right now.
With Woods seemingly out on Saturday, Pinnock played every snap on defense and Williams played all but two snaps. When Williams needed to tap out for a couple plays in the first quarter, he was replaced by safety Erick Hallett. And when Pitt went to a 4-2-5 nickel personnel grouping with three corners, Hallett was the third corner.
Then Hallett got hurt, and the coaches used Battle as the third corner in the nickel for a few snaps. If Battle, Pinnock or Williams had been unavailable after that, the coaches probably would have had to turn to Royal, who was back on the sideline.
That’s the depth situation right now: one (apparent) injury put a safety into the cornerback rotation, and one more injury had a freshman on the field. That’s going to lead to one of two things: either an inexperienced player getting significant snaps or the upperclassmen playing a ton of reps.
This is going to be relevant this week, for sure. Louisville will make Pitt’s corners run, run and run some more. Pinnock is a good corner and Williams has looked solid this season, but if those guys have to play 70+ snaps like some of Miami’s defensive backs did last Saturday against the Cardinals, it has the potential to be a long day.
This addition merited a bit more enthusiasm
Three weeks ago in this column, I wrote the following about the addition of Maryland grad transfer receiver D.J. Turner.
I just don’t think bringing in a grad transfer receiver filled an area of great need. Cornerback? Yes, that’s an area with a need. Safety? Yes, Pitt could use one of those, if only in a backup role. The same goes for linebacker. And you can never have enough talented and experienced offensive linemen.
But receiver? I just don’t see the need. Most of that is probably due to my own high opinion of the receivers who are already on the roster: I’ll get into this more in a minute, but I really like this group and I think they fill a lot of roles with the guys they have.
That said, I don’t hate bringing in Turner. It’s a one-year investment, and there’s certainly something to be said for the thought that if you have an open spot and a talented player is available, you get him.
I do think Turner is talented. Speed seems to be his primary skill, and there’s always room for speed. He has been mentioned as a potential weapon in the return game, and I could see that. He only had four returns in his career at Maryland - a kickoff and three punts, one of which went for a touchdown - but I’ve always been of the opinion that the best way to get something out of the return game is by taking a sound scheme and populating it with 10 guys who can execute it and one really fast guy who can turn an opening into a score (or at least really good field position).
So perhaps that’s the role he can fill. And again, as a one-year investment, there’s not much risk. If they get good field position or even a score in the return game from Turner, then it will have been worth it.
I don’t think I was damning Turner, but there was certainly some faint praise in there. And I haven’t forgotten that I wrote that, nor will I pretend like I didn’t say those things on the Panther-Lair Show podcast or the Panthers Insider Show on 93.7 The Fan.
And I’ll now offer a follow-up comment:
I got that one wrong.
I never said Turner was a bad addition. I just didn’t get it. I didn’t think there was a need for a grad transfer receiver and I didn’t think he would add very much to a receiver group that I was pretty high on.
Now, after two games, I’ll still pretty high on this group of receivers. But I’m also here to say that Turner has been one hell of an addition.
He’s currently No. 2 on the team in receptions and No. 1 in receiving yards, and according to Pro Football Focus, he has caught every single pass thrown to him. Seven targets, seven receptions, and for a team that entered the season needing simple reliability from its pass-catchers, Turner has offered exactly that.
And he has made an impact, too. He caught a long touchdown pass in the Austin Peay game and then made a really nice catch on the sideline for a 20-yard gain to end the first quarter against Syracuse. I think he is one of the guys on this offense who can really use his speed to get downfield and create some big plays, which they desperately need.
I still like these receivers a lot. I think Jordan Addison is a star already; I think Jaylon Barden can be one, too; I think Shocky Jacques-Louis will make something happen more often than not when you get him the ball; I think Jared Wayne is a really nice complement to those guys as a bigger target on the field; and I’m interested to see what Taysir Mack adds when he returns.
But as a one-year addition - and hey, maybe he’ll play two seasons since this is a free year - Turner has been pretty good for Pitt through two games. Really good. Much better than I expected.
So I’ll take back my less-than-enthusiastic reaction.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Will a running back emerge?
I think some players have emerged at receiver, but what about that other skill position on offense:
Will anybody emerge at running back?
When you talk about question marks this offseason, the running backs were pretty high on the list, and I don’t think many answers have been offered yet. Vincent Davis has been the No. 1 back so far this season in terms of carries, yards and snaps, but it’s tough to say he has really separated himself.
On Saturday, the apparent backup to Davis was redshirt freshman Daniel Carter. He came out to start Pitt’s third drive and looked impressive, rattling off runs of nine and six yards on his first two snaps. But he left the field after that second carry and didn’t return, a victim of an apparent injury.
Senior A.J. Davis, who started the Austin Peay game, moved into the No. 2 role - if that’s what Carter was occupying - and looked more or less like he has for the last four seasons. Todd Sibley got a couple carries in the Wildcat formation and freshman Israel Abanikanda played three snaps on one drive but never touched the ball.
So…who stands out from that group? Anybody? Hello? Bueller?
I’m having a hard time finding optimism or an arrow pointing up on the running backs right now. Carter has become probably the most intriguing running back on the roster, I would say. He has a pretty short resume, but he looks like he’s got a lot of potential as a bigger back with some burst. I would certainly like to see more of him, provided he is healthy.
I think everyone would like to see Abanikanda get some more work, too. He opened a lot of eyes in spring camp and training camp, and I imagine the coaches would probably say he has the highest ceiling of any back on the roster.
But Abanikanda’s lack of usage against Syracuse is pretty notable, and it makes me think that, for all of his potential, he wasn’t quite ready for a full workload. That’s not just about what he does with the ball in his hands, of course; he also has to be able to execute assignments, particularly as a blocker when Kenny Pickett drops back to pass.
If a running back can’t block, then he can’t play in passing situations. And if a running back is one-dimensional like that, then the coaches are going to be hesitant to use him, lest they give the defense a heads-up on what the play call is.
I’m not saying that’s necessarily the case with Abanikanda, but it seems like a logical conclusion when he played so little against Syracuse. Ideally, he’ll see his role increase over the course of the season.
So maybe Carter or Abanikanda can be The Guy. Vincent Davis has some things he can do very well, but there will always be questions about how much of a workload he can take. A.J. Davis seems like he’ll probably settle into a backup role if Carter and Vincent Davis are healthy. And the coaches don’t seem to view Sibley as a “regular offense” running back; he operates well out of the Wildcat, but that might be it for him.
I just don’t know what to expect from this group right now. Maybe a player will emerge, but none has yet.
Can Pitt score enough?
That’s the question of every football game, of course:
Which team can score enough to win?
But I’m not shrinking back into uber-obvious pseudo-analysis like “The key for Pitt is to score more points than Louisville.” It’s slightly more layered than that. Because Pitt, as we all know, is coming into Saturday’s game with a very good defense. One of the best in the ACC.
Actually, the Panthers’ defense is the best in the ACC, whether you’re judging it on total defense (yards allowed) or scoring defense (points allowed). Right now, Pitt’s averages of 154 yards and five points per game are better than anyone else in the conference.
The Panthers are also tied with Clemson in sacks (they both have 10) and they’re tied with a few teams in turnovers gained (they have five). And Pitt is No. 1 in the ACC in passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed.
So yeah, it’s not a stretch to say that the Panthers have the best defense in the conference after two games. That’s where we expected them to be prior to the season, and they have lived up to expectations.
They are very good. And I emphasize this point because the truth is, on Saturday, they will give up some points.
Louisville is the best offense Pitt has faced this season and probably the best the Panthers have seen since the game against North Carolina last fall.
Remember that game? I’ve been thinking about it a lot this week. UNC came into Heinz Field with a hot shot quarterback and some really good skill players. And while Pitt’s defense did a solid job against Sam Howell and company - 10 points allowed through three quarters - the Tar Heels eventually did what good offenses do:
They scored.
With Howell leading the charge and showing why everybody was excited about him, UNC drove 74 yards for one touchdown in the fourth quarter, 57 yards for another one and then 60 yards for a field goal to send the game to overtime.
It was a furious comeback, and while the game ended with a Pitt victory, it was a pretty good study in how even a good defense can give up plays, yards and points to a good offense. And it wasn’t like the Panthers played poorly on defense that day; they had five sacks, 11 tackles for loss, an interception and seven pass breakups.
They did all of that, but Howell still threw for 322 yards and UNC still ran for 166 (if you take out the lost yardage on sacks).
Because, again, a good defense can get beat by a good offense, even when that defense is having a good day overall.
Which brings me back to this week’s game. Pitt’s defense will probably play pretty well, but that doesn’t mean Louisville is going to be held to 10 or 14 or even 21 points. I think the Panthers are going to need to score a fair amount in this one, probably 30+ at a minimum and north of 35 to be safe.
So can they do it? Pitt topped 30 points just four times last season and got to 35 only once. The other end of the spectrum was far more common: the Panthers were held to 20 or less eight times, including four of the team’s eight ACC games.
This season, you’ve got a 55-point outburst against an FCS opponent and a 21-point game last weekend against Syracuse. Can the Panthers get close to doubling what they did against the Orange? Louisville’s defense this season, like UNC’s last season, is suspect, so the opportunities should be there.
But can they do it?
That remains to be seen. I think they’re going to need to put up a relatively high number of points to win this one - even with a strong defensive performance.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt will hit more big plays
This is something I think is really important for Pitt’s offense this week:
I think the Panthers have to hit some big plays to beat Louisville, and there are a few reasons that I think that (beyond the obvious answer that big plays are good).
For starters, the Cardinals are vulnerable to big plays. Last week, Miami hit six plays of 20 yards or more, including touchdowns of 75, 75 and 47. There were different reasons for each of those plays; some were great individual efforts by Miami players but a few were also complete and utter busts by Louisville. Like Jaylan Knighton’s 75-yard touchdown catch, when it looked like the Cardinals only had six guys on the field, or Brevin Jordan getting behind the Cardinals’ secondary for a pretty smooth 47-yard score.
That’s what I’m talking about: Louisville is susceptible to those kinds of plays. I’m sure the Cardinals coaching staff will put some extra focus on getting more of those details in line, and I’m guessing we won’t see anyone quite as wide open as Knighton was.
But the Louisville defense isn’t going to be fixed overnight (or over six nights), and I think there are plays to be made. Which brings me to the second point:
Pitt has the players to make those plays.
This year, the Panthers have the horses to really attack vertically. Jordan Addison, D.J. Turner, Shocky Jacques-Louis and Jaylon Barden have the speed to go downfield and get there in a hurry. That can be a strength of this offense in 2020 if the coaches choose to deploy it, but against Syracuse, they chose not to.
There are multiple reasons for this, but according to Pro Football Focus, Kenny Pickett threw just three passes at least 20 yards downfield. Two of those three were caught (one was Addison’s touchdown; the other was Turner’s 20-yard catch on the sideline), and that high reception rate only seems to reinforce that the Panthers didn’t utilize that element of the offense enough.
Conversely, Pickett threw nine passes at least 20 yards downfield against Austin Peay. There’s certainly a different level of competition between Austin Peay and Syracuse, and the Orange defensive scheme, with its odd-man front and five-man athletic secondary, might have been less ideal for such a passing attack, but I will stand by the notion that those downfield shots were a notable absence in last Saturday’s game.
That has to change this week. Like I said, Pitt’s offense is going to have to put up some points to beat Louisville, even if the Panthers’ defense plays well, and taking shots downfield seems like a good way to attack the Cardinals.
I believe Pitt has the personnel to deploy more of a vertical passing attack than it had last season, when the Panthers averaged a little more than four plays of 20-plus yards per game. I think the receivers are capable of getting downfield and I think Pickett is capable of making the throws.
They just have to do it.