The landscape of college athletics changed over the past week in a major way due to another round of conference realignment and there are future ripple effects that could affect the University of Pittsburgh down the line.

The Pitt Panthers football team is wrapping up its second week of training camp today, as they get closer to starting the 2023 regular season. There are plenty of storylines with Pat Narduzzi’s team as we inch towards Pitt's opening game against Wofford on September 2nd.

Jeff Capel and the Pitt basketball team are currently across the Atlantic Ocean and on Wednesday we got our first ‘semi’ look at how the team is shaping up for this season with their first exhibition game during their foreign tour.

There are storylines aplenty this week, so let’s get right to it in this week’s 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

College football changed…again
It was a whirlwind 24 hours last week in the new saga of NCAA conference realignment. The University of Oregon and University of Washington seemed all but set to join the Big Ten last Thursday evening. Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah looked poised to join the Big 12 and the Pac-12 seemed doomed.

Friday morning brought on some different and surprising headlines. The league was working like crazy to keep itself together and there was actual momentum making it seem like it could happen, but of course, then the inevitable other shoe dropped. Oregon and Washington made their move to the Big Ten, the four-corner schools followed suit to the Big 12 and the Pac-12 was left in rubble. For the casual sports fans out there, I almost felt bad for them. How could anyone keep up with, or much less even care about any of this?

In the end, it pretty much surmised this entire era of college athletics: You can’t believe anyone’s word and almost everything is always a possibility until it is not.

Now that the dust has settled (for now) where do things stand? Well, the Big Ten is going to be an 18-team mega-conference stretching from Piscataway, New Jersey all the way to Seattle, Washington. The Big 12, which seemed to be in big trouble a year ago at this time, bolstered its numbers and will move forward with 16 teams. The SEC made its big move last summer with Texas and Oklahoma and will have a 16-team league beginning next year.

That accounts for three of the ‘power five’ conferences, but what about the other two leagues? The Pac-12, now down to four members, is well…you know what.

That leaves the ACC, the home of Pitt athletics since the start of the 2013 school year. The conference has not done anything to match the recent arms race and the league lineup has remained unchanged since Louisville joined in 2015. There are also currently no future plans to expand the league, either.

The current 14 (+Notre Dame) school alignment is undoubtedly the best home for Pitt for the foreseeable future, but the problem is that we have no idea if the league can even stay together long term. I am not a lawyer, so I can’t speak to exactly what the grant of rights bill has over the ACC member institutions, but all I know is that it is pretty iron clad legal document. Simply put, none of the 14 teams in the ACC are leaving in the immediate future unless they want to basically turn over all of their revenue money until about 2036.

I think most of the league is happy with its current alignment, but the dollar figures have fallen considerably behind the two 'big' leagues. For schools like Clemson and Florida State, who liken themselves to the Alabamas, Ohio States, Georgias of the world, they obviously feel that the gap in television revenue will impair their ability to compete for national championships.

Again, there is still that issue of grant of rights/television contract thing all these schools have in place for the time being. If schools like Clemson and Florida State could leave, they probably would, but they just haven’t figured out how to do it without breaking the bank. If nothing else, it is buying the league time to figure out some resolution, whatever that may be.

I would say it is tepid future at best for the ACC. I would like to give the conference's leadership some credit and believe they had some forward thinking here and realized there was another seismic shift about to happen, because after all the ACC started this whole thing by adding Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College back in 2004. Even if they knew the Pac-12 implosion was coming, the league has done very little to get out ahead of it.

Looking back to last summer, there was probably an opportunity to poach a few Big 12 schools last year before it revived itself with its own expansion. Grabbing schools like West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and TCU might not have set the world on fire, but it was a move that could have been made when the Big 12 was down on its luck. I’m not sure the new Big 12 lineup is going to be some great conference, but the idea of strength in numbers is real. Those schools at least know what their home is going to be and piece of mind is valuable.

Another what if for the ACC is that the Big 10 did not always seem 100% sold on Oregon and Washington. They simply could have invited those two schools when they poached UCLA and USC. Perhaps the ACC could have reached out to them first and made their own splash, but even after that happened, why weren’t they the first ones to call the remaining Pac 12 members instead of the Big 12?

In the past year, the ACC had options, albeit not perfect ones, but the league chose to sit back and watch. Now the options are growing more scarce.

The talk now is the ACC rummaging through what is left of the Pac-12 and potentially bringing in Cal and Stanford. Both are great academic institutions, Stanford has a powerhouse athletic department from top to bottom, and it would give the league a footprint in the San Francisco Bay market and also give the conference access to some late-night television windows on ESPN.

The two California schools reportedly would also come in at a reduced share of the television revenue. The league is also considering SMU, a program desperate to get back into a big conference after its death penalty in the 1980s. The small, Dallas-based private school would be willing to not take a share at all in the first 5-7 years if offered membership, because their deep-pocketed donors would be willing to fund the athletic department for the time being. Not to mention, SMU sits in the fourth biggest television market in the country, so there is so intrigue there.

All of that seems good, right? I think you can try and talk yourself into it for a little while but eventually logic comes into the equation. Any added revenue, which it doesn’t sound like a ton, would probably be offset for the current ACC members by having to send all of their sports teams across the country regularly. Stanford and Cal line up nicely with the league in some regards, but at the end of the day, that’s a long flight for everyone on this side of the country.

The talks between the league and the three expansion candidates have subsided some and national reporters like Pete Thamel of ESPN and Ross Dellenger of Yahoo have said it is looking less likely.

Where does that leave the ACC? It leaves them with the same 14 schools, plus a forced marriage with Notre Dame, and some unhappy member institutions who will jump the first realistic chance they get, even if it is not for a couple of years.

Not too reassuring.

Can the league somehow get a better deal out of ESPN? Doubtful, because the world wide leader has no reason to renegotiate at the present time, even if the ACC is reasonably valuable property of theirs.

Could the league go after some different programs, perhaps within their own footprint? Sure, but it’s pretty picked over at this point.

What it looks like right now, to me at least, is the league is just going to sit still, much like the Pac-12 did this whole time and we saw how that worked out for them. The TV deal and grant of rights buys the ACC some time, but at this point, for what? When Florida State figures out how to leave, even if they have to wait for 2036, they are going to do just that.

The scenarios for Pitt in the future are unclear at best.

I think academically, institutionally, and geographically Pitt is a fit in the Big Ten, but that invite is probably never going to come. The SEC might make sense in that the league has no presence in the Northeast, but again, that still seems like a long shot.

That really leaves pressing on with what is left of the ACC if they can’t get a TV deal to entice Clemson and Florida State, and maybe some other to stay. The league could rebrand itself and make some moves to stay afloat. Perhaps Pitt could join the Big 12 down the line and team up with Cincinnati and West Virginia once again.

The last, and most grim scenario is the unknown. For a lot of reasons, Pitt is better positioned and more attractive than the likes of Oregon State and Washington State, but they got left out in the cold after over 100 years in the same conference. Seeing that play out to those athletic departments at least puts it in the back of your mind.

I could ramble on about this for a few more paragraphs, but I think you catch my drift on the matter. There has been a lot that has happened with conference realignment this week. There will eventually be more shuffling and that next round will undeniably have more of a direct impact on Pitt and it is anybody’s guess as to what will unfold.

Pitt is making moves on the NIL front
Conference realignment is just one part of how college sports has been evolving and of course there is still that whole NIL business lingering as well. Earlier this week, Pitt’s NIL collective known as Alliance 412 had an interesting announcement.

The collective rolled out something called, ‘Oakland Originals’ which more less will serve as a marketing agency within Alliance 412. It offers Pitt athletes the resources to build their own individual brand and educate themselves on handling any funds they receive. It's definitely a cool concept.

Alliance 412 held a secret media event of sorts to roll out the Oakland Originals plan and billed it is a ‘recruiting difference’ but while it’s unique and innovative, I don’t know if fans really thought that announcement warranted the secret hype.

On Thursday afternoon, however, there was a much bigger announcement and it was met with more fanfare. Alliance 412 announced all 85 scholarship players on Pitt’s football roster will be receiving an NIL deal through Alliance 412. Reportedly there will at least be a five-figure minimum per player. Essentially the football team will be paid to play for Pitt. Of course those guys will have to meet some requirements through the collective like public appearance and what not, but you catch the drift.

The main story is that Pitt’s entire team is going to have money in their pockets. That’s a bold move, and a big one at that. Everything about college sports is about staying in the arms race and this is the type of thing Pitt is ahead of the curve against some of its peers.

Thursday’s announcement is the ‘recruiting difference’ in my opinion, now what was unveiled on Tuesday. But combining the two things, it shows Pitt has a serious approach to the NIL game.

Pitt’s linebackers could potentially lead the defense
Pitt has developed a pretty strong identity of being one of the most disruptive and successful defenses in the country over the last five seasons. Under Pat Narduzzi Pitt can do a few things very well. The Panthers always stop the run, they sack the quarterback, and lately they have been putting guys in the NFL.

The defensive line under Charlie Partridge is probably the most recognizable unit for Pitt. The Panthers have posted multiple All-Americans in recent years, have led the country in sacks over the past four years, and recently Calijah Kancey became a first round pick under Partridge’s watch.

The Pitt secondary may not garner as much attention at the collegiate level, but it’s not far behind the defensive line. The Panthers have had six defensive backs drafted in the past four years. At that rate you are almost talking about your entire starting secondary over multiple seasons going to the NFL. It’s been a solid run there.

But linebacker? That has taken a little longer to get it where the Pitt coaches want it, but I’m starting to think this could be the big breakthrough season here. I would not even be shocked if its the best unit on the defensive side of the ball, or even the whole team by the time the season ends. I’m bullish about what this unit can become and there’s tangible evidence here to see it through.

Bangally Kamara is probably the most physically put together linebacker Pitt has had since Pat Narduzzi took over the program in 2015. He has the size and speed to be a very good player this season with a future to play in the NFL. Kamara showed flashes last season after starting 11 of the team’s 13 games. He’s a freak athletically and cover a lot of ground against the run and athletic enough to have a presence downfield. Kamara can be an All-ACC linebacker this season because he has every tool to be one.

Shayne Simon looked a little slow to process Pitt’s defense in the early stages of the 2022 season as a transfer out of Notre Dame, but started to really settle into his role and looked more comfortable down the stretch. Simon was hesitant at first, but Pitt’s defense is pretty simple and it allows players to come downhill and be aggressive, and he showed more of that in the second half of the season, which is when Pitt was playing some of its best football.

The third and final starter is Solomon DeShields, who can a real wild card. If Kamara is the most athletic looking linebacker Pitt has had in a while, DeShields is not far behind. He never had a regular role last season, but with SirVocea Dennis off to the NFL, he seems to be that next man up to grab a starting job. Narduzzi was asked about him on Thursday ahead of practice.

“He’s right there at the top. He’s a guy competing. He can play both to the field and the boundary and he’s been running with the one’s and people are trying to unseat him there.”

There are ongoing position battles and competition on the defensive line and at safety, but linebacker seems pretty well settled as it stands in the second week of training camp.

There is depth as well, with the reliable veteran Brandon George in the mix. Plus there are some promising young players headlined by Jordan Bass, arguably the most talented true freshman on the roster.

The Panthers have had up and down linebacker play through the years. At the beginning of Narduzzi’s tenure, Pitt was starting converted receivers and former walk-ons, but this position group looks a lot different today. Since Randy Bates arrived in 2018 and also Ryan Manalac in 2021, the linebacker play has gotten better. The group as a whole got off the schneid when Dennis was drafted this past year, the first Pitt linebacker to achieve that since Scott McKillop in 2009. I think that is really only the start for where this unit can go this season and beyond. Pitt’s defensive success has always been about the D-Line or the DBs, but I sense a change coming this season.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Will Pitt actually throw the ball more this season?
The thing with fall training camp is that there is not a whole lot to work off of when forming an opinion about the upcoming team. You can base things off what you have seen from the previous season, the small practice viewing windows, and maybe talking to a few people around the program.

There is also what is actually said on the record by Pat Narduzzi and the players during their interview sessions and one of the topics around the team this year is that they can and will throw the ball more. It does not matter who you talk to on Pitt’s offense, but the common theme they are stressing is that the offense can throw the ball this season.

I think we heard that last year too, but it did not necessarily play out that way. Pitt’s passing offense finished 79th in the country last season. Criticisms around offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. naturally started to pop up, and deservedly so in some cases, but I just don’t believe Pitt had the personnel to be all that effective in the passing game.

No disrespect to 2022 starting quarterback Kedon Slovis, but after his injury in week two, he just looked like himself. He was effectively a one-read quarterback and if Jared Wayne was not open, that was kind of the end of the play. Plus Pitt had arguably the most explosive running back in the country in Israel Abanikanda in 2022. If you are a play caller, giving the ball to your best player a lot is never a bad idea. Sometimes when you have a back that can make plays and a struggling quarterback, the play calling becomes kind of simple.

I think Pitt is obviously banking on Phil Jurkoevec being more comfortable running Pitt’s pro-style, West Coast offense. He has prior experience playing for Cignetti and a solid 2020 season as evidence. Jurkoevec is used to having different personnel sets on the field and will probably take advantage of all of his options at his disposal and has the athleticism to extend plays on his own. So when Pitt calls a passing play this season, at least in theory, there is a higher probability of more good things happening than what transpired last year.

Pitt was about 52-48 in terms of run vs. pass last season and in an ideal world for Pat Narduzzi, he’s going to hover around that 50/50 split more often than not, no matter who his coordinator is. I think maybe that 52% and 48% can be reversed this season, but I doubt there will be a significant shift.

I believe Pitt could throw the ball more this season, but I think for the passing offense to be more effective this season is going to be more about efficiency than volume. Pitt is not going to be some air-raid type of team, but I do take the players word on being able to throw the ball better this season, but maybe not more.

What are the takeaways from the first game in Spain?
The Pitt basketball team is currently in Spain as part of a foreign tour. Every four years college teams are permitted to travel internationally for a summer session. The teams get to travel and play a few exhibition games and get some additional practice before the season starts. The exhibition games are kind of questionable at times, but the additional practice time and the team building on these trips are valuable assets.

Through the years we have seen the Pitt basketball program head to places like Ireland, The Bahamas, and most recently a trip to Italy in 2019, so this is nothing new by any stretch.

There is not a full-game replay to watch or even official stats, but Pitt basketball did its best to have some numbers to go with the first game and some video clips to at least show how it all went down on Wednesday. The Panthers beat the Tenerife All-Stars 86-80 in a game played on the Canary Islands.

Pitt has 12 scholarship players on the roster for this season, but keep in mind Federiko Federiko is with the Swedish national team and Jorge Diaz Graham is currently out with an injury, so the roster is a bit condensed. The Panthers started Ishmael Leggett and Carlton Carrington at the two guard spots, Blake Hinson and Zack Austin on the wing, with Guillermo Diaz Graham earning the start inside. The bench included Dior Johnson, Jaland Lowe, Will Jeffress, Marlon Barnes, and Papa Amadou Kante.

Pitt was led in scoring by Hinson, which should come as no surprise as he is one of the top returning scorers in the ACC. He finished with 24. Austin followed closely behind with 18, including a pair of eye-popping dunks that drew some attention on social media. Leggett and Diaz Graham each scored 13 apiece.

The main takeaway for me was who started. I figured Hinson, Austin, and Leggett to be in the lineup. Federiko is the returning starter, but with him away and Guillermo’s play in March, there’s no surprise there. Carrington, however, was not my anticipation and that’s something to watch heading into the season itself.

The way Pitt’s roster shakes out, the Panthers were bound to start a freshman guard this season. Many figured it to be the ultra-talented Dior Johnson, or even Lowe, but Carrington was not who I had in mind. It’s not because the talent isn’t there, he was a four-star recruit, but to me he profiled more as a shooting guard, or combo-guard. He’s a physically impressive player, and again we don’t know how good the Tenerife All-Stars actually are, but he posted nine assists, seven rebounds, and three steals on Wednesday.

The other big takeaway from the first exhibition game was Austin’s play. We’ve heard how he can affect the game in multiple ways and how athletic he is and he pertained displayed that quality at least, but again short snippets posted on Twitter don’t tell the full story, but it’s still encouraging to see. I don’t know if Pitt has a true ‘power forward’ who will start this season, but I think the best case scenario is that Hinson and Austin can coexist and combining for 42 points is a good start on that front.

Pitt’s stay in Spain will last a few more days. They will play a second exhibition in Barcelona later day, which should gives us a little bit more to talk about for this upcoming 2023-24 season.

ONE PREDICTION

A freshman WR will be top three on the team in catches
If we are getting closer to the season, then it’s time to start making these prediction a little more bold. Here is a bold one for you, I think one of the freshmen receivers will be third on the team in catches.

Bub Means and Konata Mumpfield are the team’s top returning receivers and I expect they will be at the top of the sheet in 2023. They should also see increased production with perhaps a bigger emphasis on throwing this season, a new quarterback, the departure of Jared Wayne, and just a second year in the system.

The third spot is kind of up for grabs and there are probably two more likely candidates than a freshman. I think Florida transfer Daejon Reynolds is going to be a factor this year and could have a productive season. I believe Gavin Bartholomew’s usage will go up from last season, mainly because he is playing with a quarterback who is used to having a tight end.

I want the prediction to be bold, though, so I am going with one of the true freshmen. Pitt has four to pick from and we’ve heard a lot of praise for each of them so far during training camp. Kenny Johnson and Lamar Seymore have been on record making some above average catches. Israel Polk was one of the surprise newcomers during spring ball, and even Zion Fowler-El has had his name mentioned.

I do not know which of these four players will be the guy, but my call is one of them rises above the pack and becomes a vital piece to Pitt’s offensive puzzle this upcoming season. We should get a better sense of which freshmen will be able to contribute as camp heads into week three.