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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about too many close games, Pitt’s biggest issues and why we’ll focus on the small picture (for now).

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Setting aside the big picture for a bit
I’ve been around sports and sports fans for a long time.

We all have, right? We’re all sports fans, so we all know what sports fans are like. And one thing sports fans love to do is make everything a referendum.

Some of this comes from the advent of all-day sports talk radio, which has only been exacerbated by the “always on” nature of social media, but every game seems to carry all-or-nothing weight. It’s especially true in football, where a game takes around four hours and then we spend the other 164 hours in the week talking about it. Inevitably, that conversation hits the big picture and we start talking about whether or not a particular coach is the right person to lead the team.

I get worn out by that. It’s just too much to put all that weight on every individual game. I understand that Pitt is in a particular situation where Pat Narduzzi is coaching his sixth year and the desire to see genuine progress and real results is strong.

I understand that. I just can’t go down the same path every week, asking after every game - and oftentimes during every game - whether or not Narduzzi is the right coach for Pitt or if he has reached his ceiling or any of the other big-picture questions we seem to be discussing with more and more frequency.

This isn’t even just about negativity. Even when things are going well, I hesitate to say “See, the coaches have it figured out;” I’m far more inclined to take a long look at things when the schedule is over, and in the meantime, I prefer to spend the week-to-week of the season looking on a smaller scale.

To that end, then, let’s talk about a couple small-scale issues right now - topics that will have a direct impact on what Pitt does this week at Miami, next week against Notre Dame and beyond. We’ll just touch on these briefly here, since I’m going to dig into a couple of these topics later in the column.

But there’s the running game. That’s a big issue and it has been since the end of the 2018 season. For the last 18 games, Pitt’s rushing attack hasn’t been much of an attack at all and it continues to hold the offense back this year.

There’s also the matter of dropped passes. According to Pro Football Focus, Kenny Pickett leads the nation in passes dropped with 16 through five games. That was a big issue last year, too, and it really hasn’t gotten any better. If anything, it has gotten worse because last year it was the tight ends dropping passes but this year the receivers have become increasingly unreliable.

And maybe the biggest question right now for Pitt’s offense is Kenny Pickett’s status. He hurt his ankle at Boston College, but despite finishing that game, there are real questions about whether or not he’ll be available this week. If he’s not, it’s going to be very interesting to see which backup - Davis Beville or Joey Yellen - gets the start and how they perform.

Defensively, it’s really about the pass rush and how that element of the team has to be better and more consistent than it has been in the last two weeks. And there are also some depth issues showing on the back end, as three of the four starters in the secondary played every snap at Boston College, and the fourth starter - Marquis Williams - played all but one snap. That’s a lot of playing time, and there needs to be more of a rotation among the defensive backs.

So there are plenty of small-picture, in-the-now topics to discuss. There will be lots of time to tackle those big-picture issues in the future. For now, I’m more interested in what Pitt needs to do at Miami on Saturday.

It’s not just a missed extra point
Before we get to Saturday, though…

I imagine more than a few conversations over the last few days went like this:

“Man, how did Pitt lose that game on Saturday?”

“They missed an extra point. That’s how.”

And in the most basic, empirical sense, that’s true. Pitt lost because Alex Kessman missed an extra point in overtime, a gaffe that overshadowed Kessman’s record-breaking 58-yard field goal that sent the Panthers to overtime in the first place.

(Of course, that 58-yard kick itself overshadowed Kessman’s two missed field goals earlier in the game, so there was a lot of overshadowing going on with Kessman that night.)

But yes, Kessman missed the extra point and that miss ended the game. Period. If he had made the PAT, the game would have continued. Maybe Pitt would have won, maybe Pitt would have lost, but the game would have continued. Instead, he missed and the game ended.

So it’s that easy. The missed extra point is why the Panthers lost the game.

Except it’s not that easy. It wasn’t just that extra point. That was the final note in the loss, but it wasn’t the whole thing. Because when a game ends like that, there is a whole symphony of miscues, mistakes and missed opportunities that actually led to the loss.

Let’s look at that game. Pitt drove into Boston College territory on its first possession in the first quarter but stalled when a third-down pass was dropped. That’s one wasted opportunity. Another one came in the second quarter when Boston College handed Pitt 15 yards on a late hit out of bounds, but the Panthers offset the penalty with an unsportsmanlike conduct flag of their own for retaliating to the hit. Instead of having first down at the BC 42, Pitt was facing third-and-7 from its own 43 (the Panthers didn’t convert).

It continued in the second half. The Panthers had another dropped pass on third down, threw an interception inside their own 20, got called for a false start to blow up a fourth-and-2 attempt near midfield and took a 15-yard sack from the BC 26 on their last drive of regulation.

And that’s just on offense. The defense had its fair share of issues, too, and in between all of that, Kessman also missed two field goals.

Each of those mistakes killed drives that could have given Pitt enough points to avoid overtime or even avoid having to attempt a 58-yard field goal just to stay alive. So while we can talk until we’re blue in the face about the missed PAT and what may or may not have happened on that snap, the truth is, Pitt shouldn’t have been in that position to start with.

Cut out one or two of those other mistakes, and you avoid overtime altogether. You avoid letting a missed extra point sink your game.

But that’s the real lesson that should be learned here:

If you fail to put teams away, if you struggle to score enough to close games out, then you leave yourself vulnerable to something like a missed PAT leading to a loss. An extra point doesn’t matter if you have more than a one-score lead, but because this team continues to play close games and never really pulls away, then the prospect of something like that happening will always be lurking, ready to jump up and clutch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The backs are alright
When we talk about specific issues on this team, I don’t know if any loom larger than the running game.

More specifically, the lack of a running game.

We’ve talked about that a ton, but here’s this week’s edition in “Things You Would Have Guessed But Didn’t Know For Sure About The State of Pitt’s Running Game:”

There are 23 FBS teams this season that have rushed for more yards than Pitt despite playing fewer games. Eight of those 23 teams have only played three games and have out-rushed the Panthers.

Feel free to share that one at your next socially-distanced tailgate.

I don’t think anyone has any misconceptions about the state of Pitt’s running game. It’s a non-factor, despite running backs accounting for two of the Panthers’ four touchdowns at Boston College on Saturday. There’s simply no threat of an effective rushing attack, and that makes Pitt one-dimensional, which of course makes it much more difficult for the Panthers to do the thing they’re actually somewhat good at (you know, passing).

But where the conversation has gotten a little more interesting is on the matter of who to blame for the poor rushing attack. There’s always Mark Whipple; he’s the offensive coordinator, after all. There’s the offensive line; that group simply isn’t opening many holes for the backs. There’s Dave Borbely; he’s the offensive line coach, so he bears some responsibility for the state of the line. And there are the running backs themselves; they have to make plays when the opportunities present themselves.

More and more, I’ve come around to the line of thinking that the last group I mentioned - the running backs - is probably at the bottom of the list when it comes to placing blame.

The one thing that really opened my eyes was this stat from Pro Football Focus: Pitt sophomore running back Vincent Davis leads the nation with 25 avoided tackles this season.

Yes, that’s a volume-based stat and not everyone has played as many games as Pitt has, but still, that’s impressive. PFF also has an “elusive rating” - a formula for quantifying a running back’s impact independent of the blocking - and in that stat, Davis ranks No. 10 nationally.

Vincent Davis is good enough. Israel Abanikanda is, too (although is pass protection needs to improve). But they have gotten such little help from the guys in front of them that it’s tough to tell sometimes. Maybe that’s a schematic issue, maybe it’s technique, maybe it’s talent; whatever it is, I don’t think the issue is the running backs.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Is there a youth movement at running back?
In terms of things we read into that we probably shouldn’t, Pitt’s weekly depth charts rank pretty high.

On most weeks, the best you can hope for is that the official two-deep more or less reflects what happened in the previous week’s game. For example, Player A gets hurt. Player A stays on the depth chart. Player A doesn’t play that week. Then Player A comes off the depth chart.

It’s a reflection of what has happened rather than an indicator of what will happen. So keep that in mind as we discuss the implications of Pitt’s latest two-deep.

The biggest thing that stood out on this week’s release was at running back. Vincent Davis has been listed as the starter for a few weeks now; that’s not new. But in previous editions of the depth chart, Davis was backed up by a series of OR’s:

A.J. Davis or Todd Sibley or Daniel Carter or Israel Abanikanda

That’s a lot of OR’s.

But they weren’t there this week. On Pitt’s official release in advance of Saturday’s game at No. 13 Miami, the coaches changed things. Vincent Davis is still the starter, but now his OR-less backup is Abanikanda, followed by Daniel Carter and then Sibley and A.J. Davis.

The only “OR” on the chart is between the two fourth-year players at the end of the list.

Now, maybe A.J. Davis is still banged up. He missed the N.C. State game and played just one snap at Boston College, so there could be a lingering injury issue. But I’m not so sure. It has been pretty clear that Vincent Davis and Israel Abanikanda (and possibly Daniel Carter) have the highest ceilings among the running backs, despite the seniority of A.J. Davis and Todd Sibley.

The coaches committed to that pecking order on Saturday, with Vincent Davis and Abanikanda in an every-two-series rotation throughout the first half at Boston College. Davis worked almost the entire second half by himself, but that rotation in the first half was notable.

Really, this week’s two-deep looks like it reflects that rotation, but I don’t think that’s the same thing as the depth chart reflections I talked about earlier. I think that’s the path forward for this offense and this group of running backs: Davis and Abanikanda leading the way, and if Carter gets healthy, he’ll probably be in the mix, too.

Quite frankly, I think that’s a good approach. Like I said earlier, I think those backs are good enough, provided they get some help up front. I’m really intrigued by Abanikanda. His mix of size, speed and explosiveness seems like it could really lead to some big plays; it might just take a little time for him come into his own, but his ceiling seems to be as high as anyone else on the roster.

Coaches often take some criticism from fans about relying too much on veteran players, but in the case of the running backs, it sure seems like the Pitt staff is comfortable moving forward with the youth.

Is there an issue with the defense?
Last week in this column, I predicted that Pitt’s defense would bounce back against Boston College after showing some cracks in the loss to N.C. State.

I was half-right about that.

Not the first half, though. Phil Jurkovec was really good in the first half last Saturday, completing 10-of-15 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown before halftime. There were coverage issues, to be sure, but a big part of the problem was the pressure - or lack thereof.

Jurkovec was sacked just once in the first half on Saturday. That followed the previous week’s game when N.C. State quarterback Devin Leary took just two sacks, and while Pitt’s defense found more success in the second half at Boston College to finish with six sacks, the lack of pressure on Jurkvoec in the first 30 minutes allowed the Eagles to get some necessary scores in what turned out to be a one-point game.

So, after consecutive games with 30 points allowed, are we concerned about the defense?

Yes, I think there are some things to be concerned about.

Pitt’s pass rush did round into form at Boston College, but it took too long and it was too inconsistent. This defensive scheme is built on the front four (and sometimes the linebackers) getting pressure to make the quarterback uncomfortable and disrupt his timing. That combines with the secondary (and sometimes the linebackers) being physical with the receivers to further disrupt the timing of the passing game.

The idea is to not let a quarterback get into a rhythm and have time to find a receiver. Because if the pass rush doesn’t get there, then a good quarterback will have options downfield due to the structure of the pass coverage.

It all starts up front, and if the defensive line isn’t impacting the quarterback, it’s going to be a long day for the defense.

In the last two games, Devin Leary and Phil Jurkovec have dropped back a combined total of 90 times, and Pitt’s pass rush put pressure on them just 39 times, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s 43.3% of the time, and it’s simply not enough with this style of defense, because here are the results:

When they weren’t under pressure, Leary completed 18-of-27 for 237 yards and two touchdowns and Jurkovec went 23-of-24 for 246 and two scores. Add that up and it’s a combined completion rate of 80.4% and 9.5 yards per attempt. Those are astronomical numbers, and it’s the kind of fire Pitt is playing with if the pass rush doesn’t get home.

Now, I am still of the mind that this particular ship can be righted. I think Patrick Jones is playing at a really high level, but he can’t do it alone. Rashad Weaver needs to keep producing a high level and doing it consistently, and I think the continued emergence of Calijah Kancey is going to increase the impact of the unit overall. Some of the issues in the secondary aren’t going to go away, but if the linemen can make life difficult for the opposing quarterback, it will make life easier for the Panthers’ defensive backs.

ONE PREDICTION

One thing that has to happen
There aren’t many times when I’m speechless, but I have to say, I can’t predict much right now. Miami always looked like a tough matchup, even before the season when we weren’t sure what the Hurricanes would be. Now - last week’s beat-down at the hands of Clemson notwithstanding - Miami looks pretty legit.

So you’ve got a Pitt team coming off consecutive one-point losses facing the toughest team on its schedule to date, a team that has been a lot for the Panthers to handle even in its down years. Throw in the aforementioned uncertainty about Kenny Pickett’s status, and…well, it’s very tough to predict anything right now.

I can’t sit here and honestly predict a win, and it would be boring to predict a loss. I could make a semi-prediction about this game being another one-score affair or a blowout, but that would only be filled with half-baked ideas about how Pitt could keep it close or why the Panthers won’t be in the same area code.

I could always go the gimmicky route of predicting some less-obvious play like a pick-six or a kick return for a touchdown or something that hasn’t happened often, but it’s tough to fill the space for this section of the column on something like that.

So I’ll just say this:

Pitt’s defense is going to need to play at a really, really high level for the Panthers to have a chance on Saturday.

I know, I’m not going too far out on a limb to predict that, but it’s the best I’ve got. Pitt’s offense has struggled against Miami for the last few years, and there’s no reason to think that this season’s version of the Panthers will have any more luck against this season’s version of the Hurricanes.

There’s no real evidence that the running game will improve, and if Kenny Pickett is limited or can’t go at all, then the team’s best source of offense - the passing game - is going to be held back considerably. That means the challenge of scoring points will be even greater, and that puts even more pressure on the defense to play at a high level.

That’s probably the touch of grey to any silver lining here: even a standout performance by the defense, a near-perfect showing where Miami struggles to get anything going all game, still might not be enough. Because that was the case last year, where Pitt’s defense gave up just 16 points and still lost.

You should never lose a game if you hold the opponent to 16 points. Never. You should have a 99% chance of winning, or at least somewhere in the 90’s. The only way you lose a game like that is if your offense just can’t do anything at all.

And last year against Miami (among other games), Pitt’s offense couldn’t do anything at all.

I fear that may the case on Saturday; we’ll see. But while there’s a ton of uncertainty about what the Panthers’ offense will do, I’m fairly confident about one thing: Pitt’s defense has to play at a really high level if Pat Narduzzi and company are going to avoid a three-game losing streak and a 3-3 record.