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The 3-2-1 Column: Cignetti, WRs, transfers, hoops and more

In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Frank Cignetti, Pitt's receivers, the transfer portal, the hoops team and more.

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Welcome back
Jim wrote the 3-2-1 Column last week, so I haven’t had a chance to really comment on Frank Cignetti’s hiring as Pitt’s new offensive coordinator.

Well, I should say that I haven’t had a chance to write a column on the Cignetti hire. But I think if you listened to the reaction podcast or the Saturday radio show or read anything I’ve written on the boards, you know my opinion.

I like this hire. A good amount.

No, it’s not quite as flashy as some of the names we allowed ourselves to consider on the boards in the last month. But let’s be honest: most of those names were never happening.

Nor did Pitt need a flashy hire. The program has its own appeal right now built on success and returning personnel. A flashy coordinator hire wasn’t needed to energize the fan base - the fan base is already fairly energized.

What Pitt needed, and what Pat Narduzzi went looking for, was a coordinator who could maximize the returning personnel and develop the quarterback.

I think that’s what Narduzzi got in Cignetti.

I think there are three strong bullet points to consider:

1. A resume with a bunch of stops at Power Five programs.
2. A good feel for tailoring an offense to a quarterback’s strengths.
3. A knack for identifying and maximizing playmakers.

Admittedly, I’m basing some of this on what Cignetti did at Pitt the first time he was here. But I don’t think you can overlook the impact he had on Bill Stull.

Remember, if you can or will, your opinion of Stull coming out of the 2008 season. 57% completion, nine touchdowns, 10 interceptions and one of the worst performances by a quarterback in modern Pitt history in the Sun Bowl (7-of-24, 52 yards, 1 interception).

Fast-forward one season with Cignetti on the scene, and Stull completes 65% for 21 touchdowns and eight picks plus 280 yards more on nine fewer attempts.

It was a remarkable improvement, and the biggest factor, the biggest change, was Cignetti joining the staff.

In the years since 2009, I’ve talked with various people about Cignetti’s impact and just what exactly he did with Stull that season; it really came down to understanding how Stull saw the field and how he processed information and then building an offense - particularly the play design and the reads - around Stull’s strengths.

It wasn’t just tailoring the offense to Stull’s physical tools; it was tailoring the offense to Stull’s thought process. Cignetti built the offense to fit the way Stull approached the game.

And he did it by getting the ball to the playmakers. Dion Lewis, Dorin Dickerson and Jonathan Baldwin each had career years that season, and that wasn’t an accident. Cignetti quickly identified those three as the guys who could score a lot of points, so he made sure to get them the ball a lot of times. Those three combined for 457 offensive touches that season, and those touches turned into 36 touchdowns.

I would say the plan worked out pretty well, and considering what Pitt’s offense brings back for 2022, it seems like that should dovetail quite nicely with the Panthers’ needs in this upcoming season.

There’s always one
The funniest thing about Pitt’s offense might be the receivers. And I say “funny” because every time I consider the offense for 2022 and I go position-by-position, I inevitably forget one of the receivers.

Usually it’s Konata Mumpfield, who is a stud transfer coming in from Akron. Sometimes it’s Jared Wayne, who has more than proven himself to be a reliable and sneaky option in the passing game. Or it will be one of the J.B.’s - Jaylon Barden and Jaden Bradley - who have each done things to get the fans cheering. That’s a group of five really good receivers, and it doesn’t even include Myles Alston or the incoming freshmen.

It’s kind of remarkable to consider the group as a whole. It wasn’t that long ago that Pitt’s receiving corps was far less impressive. Just look at the leading receivers in recent seasons.

Addison led the charge in 2020, catching 60 passes for 666 yards and four touchdowns. The year before, Maurice Ffrench set the Pitt record for receptions in a season with 96, but he only turned that into 850 yards and four scores.

Rafael Araujo-Lopes was Pitt’s leading receiver in 2017 and 2018 with a combined total of 80 receptions. Jester Weah set the pace in 2016 with 36 catches (although he turned those into 870 yards and 10 scores).

The stretch from 2009-15, with Jonathan Baldwin, Devin Street and Tyler Boyd leading the way, was pretty strong. But between Larry Fitzgerald in 2003 and Baldwin in 2009, Pitt was led by Greg Lee, Derek Kinder and T.J. Porter.

And those were just the leading receivers. The backups in most of those seasons were even less impressive than the top guys. Really, the duo of Boyd and Street in 2013 was probably the best one-two punch Pitt had at receiver dating back to 2000 or so.

This year, with Addison and Mumpfield and Wayne, Pitt’s got a top trio that trumps anything we’ve seen at Pitt in a long, long time. And the depth behind them with Barden and Bradley is pretty strong, too.

I’m really not sure what’s missing from the group. There’s speed (Addison, Barden) and there’s size (Wayne, Bradley) and if there’s not a big downfield threat like Taysir Mack, I’ll take my chances with the speed getting vertical for big plays like Addison did this year and like Barden has done.

On top of that, I’m really looking forward to seeing what Mumpfield does. He was a star at Akron and instantly became one of the top receivers in the transfer portal this offseason. He seems like a really sharp route-runner, and I think he’s going to get open a lot, both by virtue of his own talent as well as the attention that will get paid to Addison.

It’s a talented group that should be really good this season. They’ll be fun to watch.

The movement will slow - for now
By our count, Pitt is still three or so scholarships over the 85-man limit. That’s a projection, of course, and the numbers don’t need to get right for a little while, so there’s time to figure out the necessary comings and goings.

At this point, I’m expecting Pitt’s offseason transactions to slow down and maybe even stop, at least for a bit. The spring semester started last Monday and add/drop ended today, so if any potential incoming transfer wanted to join the team for spring camp, they pretty much needed to do it by now.

(I think Notre Dame transfer linebacker Shayne Simon got in just under the gun, but I haven’t confirmed that yet.)

At the same time, I think Pitt’s attrition will pause for a bit. Pitt has had 10 guys go into the transfer portal, with the most recent being Naquan Brown, who made his departure last Wednesday.

Like I said, though, the spring semester has started at Pitt and most other schools, so I have to think that if another Pitt player was going to enter the transfer portal with the intention of participating in spring camp at a new school, then they would have already done it.

Otherwise, if they go into the portal between now and the start of spring camp, they’ll be taking classes at Pitt but not working with the team, and it seems less than ideal to basically take a semester off from football.

So I think the movement will stop for now. The coaches could add another transfer or two, but it won’t be anybody who can join the team for spring camp.

Then, after spring camp, the movement will start up again.

As I said, Pitt needs a few more guys to transfer, just to fit the current allotment of incoming freshmen and transfers. And if the coaches continue adding transfers - which seems like a possibility - they’re going to need even more attrition.

I have to think there’s a pretty reasonable chance at least two of the quarterbacks pursue their fortunes elsewhere after seeing how things stack up in spring camp. The Covid year has really created a lot of options for players. Nick Patti will be a redshirt senior in 2021, but he’s actually got two years to play. Davis Beville will be a redshirt junior, but he’s got three years of eligibility left. Same with Joey Yellen.

Nate Yarnell is the only player in the group that doesn’t have an option for a super senior year, but he also redshirted as a freshman, so he’s got four years left.

My point is, all of these guys have multiple years of eligibility remaining, and for some of the upperclassmen, that means an opportunity to take those years to another school with a shot at playing sooner rather than later.

So a few spots should open up there. And then I’m looking at 12 scholarship defensive ends projected for the coming season and…that seems like a lot. I’m guessing there will be a little movement there after the spring.

If Pitt loses one or two guys from the quarterbacks and the defensive ends, that should clear up the numbers issues. But like I said, I don’t think anything else will happen until the team gets through spring camp and guys see where they stand.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How can Pitt hoops win?
Switching to basketball for a bit here…

Look, there’s a clear and present pattern for how Pitt can win games. The Panthers have to play really tough on defense, attack the boards with energy and take care of the basketball.

Defense, rebounding and no turnovers; I know that sounds familiar for a lot of Pitt fans, but we’ll leave that connection to the past for another time, because what’s important for right now is what Pitt needs to do to win right now.

Those are the areas where the Panthers need to excel. The problem is, without the sum of those areas, it’s really tough for this Pitt team to win.

They’re not a great offensive team. We know that. We’ve known that. Even when we thought Nike Sibande would have two working knees, even when we thought Ithiel Horton would stay out of trouble, even when we thought Jamarius Burton would play all season, even when we thought Femi Odukale would build on the finish to his freshman season - even with all of those best-case scenarios, we still knew they weren’t going to be a great offensive team.

It’s just not who they are.

What they are - or, putting it another way, what they need to be - is a great defensive team, an effective rebounding team and a team that minimized turnovers.

That’s the recipe. And it’s one that can work, especially in a down year for the ACC. But if you don’t have all of the ingredients in place, well, that dough won’t rise.

So you get what we had here this week (which is the way that no one wants it). Pitt’s game against Virginia on Wednesday night was typical for the Panthers’ offense, but the other elements - the most important elements - weren’t there.

They didn’t defend well enough, giving up 15-of-25 from the floor in the second half. They didn’t rebound well enough, letting Virginia grab 11 offensive boards. And they turned the ball over too much, committing 15 turnovers that the Cavaliers turned into 21 points.

That’s why Pitt lost. Right there. And there’s no need to get cute about it or dig into this or that: they simply didn’t defend well enough. Jeff Capel said it a bunch of times after the game and I don’t think he was wrong.

Pitt lost because Virginia got too many easy baskets. And Virginia got too many easy baskets because Pitt didn’t defend well enough.

That’s not to take anything away from the Cavaliers, but the Panthers were lacking in their defensive effort and intensity.

And now here comes the upside.

Effort and intensity can be addressed. They can be improved. Three-point shooting is a tough thing to improve midseason, but attention to detail on defense and communication on defense - two key points Capel emphasized on Wednesday night - absolutely can be improved. And it’s not entirely an uphill battle, since Pitt has done what it needed to do in that department earlier this season.

In fact, the Panthers did it as recently as last Saturday in their win over Louisville at the Petersen Events Center. The blueprint is there; the players just need to follow it.

If they do, they’ll win more games. How many of the remaining 13? I don’t know. But they’ll win more. The ACC isn’t very good this season, which is perfect for a Pitt team that can - and I really believe they can - beat teams that don’t have a lot of high-end talent.

What does the future look like?
I’ve said a couple times in some different settings - the message board, the podcast, etc. - that I would be surprised if Jeff Capel isn’t back next season.

If that’s the case, then, what should Pitt fans expect from next season?

I know there are still 13 games left to play this year, but I think it’s a question to consider, because if we’re talking about Capel getting at least one more season with the Panthers, then we might as well talk about what that might look like.

The reality with Pitt’s roster for the 2022-23 season is that everyone other than Mo Gueye could return. They all have remaining eligibility. Jamarius Burton, Nike Sibande, Dan Oladapo and Onyebuchi Ezeakudo could come back as super seniors. Ithiel Horton and Chris Payton have two years each. Femi Odukale, John Hugley, Will Jeffress, Noah Collier, Max Amadasun and Chris Payton have three.

Now, not all 12 of those guys will come back. We know that. And the guys who do come back for next season won’t necessarily be here for the entirety of their remaining eligibility beyond 2022-23.

But the point is, they can come back, and that’s a lot of potential returning personnel.

The keys, of course, are the core guys. Hugley leads that list and Burton isn’t far behind. Odukale is pretty important, too. And the two guys who haven’t played this year - Sibande and Horton (save for one game) - are significant.

Let’s talk about them for a moment. Because when we talk about reasons to think the team might be better next season, it’s impossible to ignore Sibande and Horton. Given that Sibande won’t play at all this season and Horton’s contributions will probably be less than 10 games, if that many, putting them on the court in the fall will basically amount to adding two new players to the roster. Or, at the very least, two players who weren’t on the roster this season, because they effectively weren’t.

I think you have to be really committed to the bit to claim those guys wouldn’t have made a positive impact - possibly changing the outcome of a few games.

Put those two on the roster next season with Hugley, Burton and Odukale, and you just might have something. The power forward position will still need to be addressed, and that might have to come from the transfer portal because I don’t see a great option on the current roster. But I think there’s a decent amount to like about a lineup that features Hugley along with some combination of those guards.

I don’t know if that’s the team you would hope to have in Year Five of the Capel era, but I think it’s probably the team you’re going to get. And I think they can be competitive - probably more competitive than any team Capel has had.

ONE PREDICTION

This is what every offseason will look like
For a little while, at least…

This has been, without question, the most interesting offseason I’ve seen while covering Pitt football.

Okay. That’s not true. I have often told the tale of how I was at Ruth’s Chris Steak House downtown on New Year’s Eve 2010, and if you are good with dates, you know what happened that night. I can say that was the wildest offseason I’ve ever seen, but when you’re dealing with two coaching changes and all the resulting recruiting fallout, well, that’s just not fair for a comparison.

So let’s revise.

This has been the wildest non-coaching search offseason I’ve seen.

I don’t think I’m alone. For anyone involved in college athletics, from coaches to players to administrators to fans and media, this offseason truly doesn’t have any precedent. Of course, that’s due to two main elements:

The transfer portal and NIL (name, image and likeness) deals.

And, more pointedly, the combination thereof.

I won’t go as far down the path of college football doomsday and call it the wild west, but those who want to refer to the sport’s current state as free agency…well, I can’t entirely disagree.

While NIL deals are not formally facilitated by or organized through a school or program, the separation isn’t great. Boosters and school supporters are finding ways to work around the system and get deals for players, and while I am all for student-athletes being able to make money on their names and their images and their likenesses, something else has developed.

What we’re seeing is that players are getting back-channel overtures to transfer, with lucrative NIL deals as the lure.

This is one of those “everybody knows it’s happening” things, it’s happening all over the country and I’m not sure that it’s going to stop. We’ve seen coaches talking about how they have to recruit their roster in the offseason now, and this is what they’re talking about:

One way or another, word gets to top players about opportunities they might have at another school - opportunities on and off the field.

And this was just year one; I don’t see things slowing down, not as NIL efforts become more organized and the student-athletes get a clearer picture of what’s possible.

I’m not going to soapbox this topic. I’m not going to talk about whether it’s right or wrong. I’ll save that for the coaches. I’m just going to say that it’s happening and it will continue to happen, and most schools - including Pitt - are going to be affected by it at some point, if they haven’t already.

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