In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about the continued efforts in the transfer portal, the timeline for roster-building, Pat Narduzzi’s best stretch and more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Pitt doesn’t go West (or West doesn't go Pitt)
Another week, another not-positive news development for Pitt hoops.

Last week, it was Justin Champagnie testing the NBA Draft process (not surprisingly) and Abdoul Karim Coulibaly going into the transfer portal (surprisingly). This week, it’s more transfer news, but rather than a Pitt player leaving via the portal - I don’t think there will be any more of those - it’s a Pitt target leaving the portal and committing to another school.

This was Jarrod West, the Marshall guard who announced on Wednesday that he would spend his final year at Louisville rather than Pitt, who was his other finalist.

That one stung a bit. The Panthers looked to be in pretty strong shape with West when he announced his intention to transfer last week, and there were quite a few sources saying that Pitt would get him, even up to and through the weekend. But Chris Mack - the Louisville coach, not the 93.7 The Fan personality - managed to pull it off and land West.

West would have fit in nicely with Pitt’s roster. He would have added another veteran guard to the rotation and would have been, at worst, the Panthers’ second-best defender. That’s where West’s strengths lie and it’s where he would have helped Pitt the most, in addition to the experience and some occasional bursts of offense.

For reasons we’ll discuss momentarily, I don’t think West’s shunning of Pitt was a major death blow.

But we all know that the Panthers losing out on West didn’t happen in isolation. What it represented in and of itself is not what it represented in the bigger picture. Because the bigger picture, right now, is a zero.

Zero recruits committed. Zero transfers lined up.

Now, I’m the first to say that it’s April 2 and we could all do well to have a little bit of well-reasoned patience. In fact, I’ll say that again later in this column, with greater detail (or at least more words). But I can’t deny that it doesn’t look good to be in this position with a half-dozen openings and no one lined up to fill them.

And honestly, I would like to see Pitt start landing a few guys just so we can stop discussing the fact that Pitt hasn’t landed a few guys. I would like to start talking about how the new additions will fit into the roster, instead of rebutting the not-as-rhetorical-as-they-should-be questions about whether the Panthers will have a full roster in the coming season.

So yes, Pitt missed on a defensive guard who averaged a dozen or so points per game playing in Conference USA. That’s a bummer because the staff wanted him; obviously they thought he could help.

But ultimately, West wasn’t going to be the guy who changed the trajectory of the program. What he could have changed, at least for a day or two, is the discourse.

The tone of the talk could have taken a shift, which would have been nice, because the talk would have been replaced with results.

Instead, we’re all just left with talk for now.

The real need
I alluded to this, but one thing about Pitt’s pursuit of Jarrod West and the sting of him picking a different school is that he was probably something of a luxury target for the Panthers.

Yes, it absolutely would have been nice to add a veteran guard to the mix and go into the season with a top-four backcourt of Femi Odukale, Nike Sibande, Ithiel Horton and West (and likely not in that order). That would have made for a pretty formidable guard rotation, one that could have competed in the ACC, and while it lacked a bit in the three-point shooting department, the group would have made up for it with toughness and physicality.

West could have filled out that rotation nicely, but in the end, it wasn’t a necessity.

A center - now that’s a necessity.

Look, I know I’ve said this a bunch of times. I’ve said it here in this column and I’ve said it on the Panther-Lair Show. I probably don’t need to have said it as much as I have, but I said it before and I’ll say it again:

Pitt needs a center.

Maybe they’ll end up getting five-star center prospect Efton Reid. That would be a great addition, for a lot of reasons. But guess what? They still need a transfer center. Regardless of what happens with Reid - and the outcome of that situation changes depending on who you talk to - they still need a veteran center to come in and play this season.

Yes, I know that talented, veteran centers aren’t exactly growing on trees. And yes, I know that almost every team in the country could use a talented, veteran center. I know it will be tough to land one.

But they are out there. Around 100 of them, by my count. And somewhere in there, Pitt should be able to find one or two who can contribute in the ACC.

If Utah State can find Neemias Queta and Mount St. Mary’s can find Mezie Offurum and Loyola-Chicago can find Cameron Krutwig and Grand Canyon can find Asbjorn Midtgaard, Pitt can find somebody who can play.

It doesn’t need to be Qudus Wahab (although he would obviously be a great addition). It just needs to be somebody who can eat up space in the paint and clean things up around the rim. Give the Panthers some kind of presence in the post: that’s all anyone is asking.

And it’s far, far more important than getting another guard (but, you know, there’s a lot of spots available, so Jeff Capel should try to do that, too).

The core
I think I’ve talked about this before, too, but I want to bring it up again. Because for all the doom and gloom, for all the fear and loathing, for all the moles and trolls, I think this roster actually has some core pieces that are pretty good.

Picture, if you will, a starting five that goes with Odukale and Sibande in the back court and Will Jeffress on the wing. I think that trio can be pretty good. A fair amount of that is projection and, to be fair, some assumptions. But I am choosing to believe what Odukale and Sibande showed in those final few games of the season (and what Sibande showed during his career at Miami); I think those two can take their finishes to 2020-21 and build on them for 2021-22.

With Jeffress, I’m choosing to take those glimpses we got of what kind of player he can be, add those to the potential he showed in high school, sprinkle in a little reminder of how young he was when he got to college and stir them all together for a prediction of a breakout season. I think he can do it. I think he’s got the talent and the work ethic to take a pretty giant leap this offseason.

So yes, I’m projecting a bit with those three - to varying degrees - but I think it’s reasonable to have certain expectations for them in the coming year.

Now, if you’ll allow at least a slight flight of fancy, imagine putting Justin Champagnie in that starting lineup.

Odukale/Sibande/Jeffress/Champagnie

That’s got the makings of a competitive ACC lineup.

The center position remains a question, of course, and Champagnie’s status will be up in the air for at least a few more months. As I’ve said multiple times, those are two of the biggest questions facing the program this offseason (John Hugley is the other big question, and he could help solve a few of the problems).

But if Capel and company can answer those questions - or, in the case of Champagnie, receive a good answer to the question - then I think we’ll see a team that looks like it belongs in the ACC. It might even look that way for an entire season; I really do think it can be that good.

I’m not sure why I thought I should bring that up again. I guess it just seems like some segment of the Pitt fan base believes - or wants to believe - the cupboard is completely empty. It’s not. It’s not full, not by any stretch of the imagination, even by the relative definition of a “full cupboard” in 2021. But Pitt’s got, in my view, 3/5 of a potential starting rotation that could be pretty good.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How good can the offense be?
We’ll switch to football for a few segments here, and we’ll start with a question that will probably be asked more than a few times over the offseason.

How good can Pitt’s offense be?

Why will we keep asking that question throughout the offseason? Well, it seems to me that’s the most important question facing this team in 2021. The defense lost some key players but the coaches have recruited well enough to maintain the success of previous seasons on that side of the ball. I don’t think there should be too much of a drop-off, if any, on defense.

No, it’s all about the offense. They got Kenny Pickett back, so that’s a huge first step. And I am actually pretty bullish on the skill players.

Jordan Addison is a stud; we all know that and we saw plenty of it last season. I think Taysir Mack, Shocky Jacques-Louis and Jared Wayne are all useful receivers who probably could be used a bit more than they have been.

There’s also my breakout candidate for 2021: Jaylon Barden. I think he can be really, really good. I think he was really, really good when he got opportunities last season. And I think if he gets more opportunities, he can be even better.

And Pitt added a transfer receiver last week in Melquise Stovall, who is coming in from Hawaii. He’s an intriguing guy who will draw comparisons to DJ Turner, but let’s see if he gets some more consistent chances than Turner did.

We should also probably keep an eye on a guy like Will Gipson. He has been held back by injury, but there have been some positive reviews of him over the last year. He could contribute this season as well.

I’m a little less confident about the running backs than I am the receivers, but I think there’s talent there, too. For those guys, we all know what it will come down to:

The offensive line.

And really, that’s what all of this comes down to. It’s all reliant on the offensive linemen. If they can be more consistently effective in 2021 than they were in 2020 (or 2019), then this unit can flourish. I think Mark Whipple knows enough about football to call a good game, but there’s little that can go right if the line doesn’t block well.

So I look at this offense and I see some good pieces. If the line comes together, I think the skill positions have guys in place to make plays.

Expect to see something similar in another 3-2-1 Column in August. Probably May, June and July, too, because I’m going to keep hammering the two points here:

1. The offense is key to the season.
2. The line is the key to the offense.

What has been Pitt’s best stretch under Narduzzi?
This came to mind randomly during the week, so I thought I’d bring it up here:

What has been Pitt’s best run of games with Pat Narduzzi?

First, let’s look at history. In six seasons, Pitt has won at least two games in a row 12 times. The Panthers have six winning streaks of at least three games; and they have won four in a row three times - 2015, 2018 and 2019.

I think the answer to our question is in those four-game winning streaks, so let’s put the focus there. In 2015, Pitt beat Virginia Tech, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Syracuse in consecutive games. In 2018, the Panthers beat Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest in a row. And in 2019, the four-game winning streak included wins over UCF, Delaware, Duke and Syracuse.

It’s not surprising to see Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke and Syracuse show up twice in there; those teams are annual opponents and more or less on a similar level as Pitt, so it makes sense.

But which one of those streaks was Pitt’s best? I’ll give some credit to 2019. That win over UCF was huge, and while the Delaware game the next week was way too close for comfort, the Panthers had a thin roster that day, so kudos for the effort. Winning at Duke is nothing special, although Pitt did manage to blow a lead and then come back to win. Syracuse was kind of similar, which isn’t necessarily a good thing.

2015’s four-game winning streak was one that we probably forget, but it was significant at the time. Pitt won each of those games by a single score - to wit, the Panthers won by four, seven, three and three - and the team showed a resiliency that hadn’t really been on display in the Paul Chryst years. The Syracuse game at the end of the streak was a pretty big one, what with a fake punt to set up a game-winning field goal; the fans liked that one, for sure.

But I might lean to 2018. I probably don’t have to remind you how that season started: a 3-4 record through seven games, with such notable hits as “51-6 vs. Penn State in prime time,” “another embarrassing loss to North Carolina” and “getting run off the field by UCF.” But after a close loss at Notre Dame, the team rallied. First, they won a shootout against Duke. Then they went to Virginia on a Friday night and knocked off the ranked Cavaliers. After that, Pitt came home and absolutely obliterated Virginia Tech. And finally, the Panthers went to Wake Forest and clinched the Coastal Division with a win over the Deacons.

For my money, that’s probably the best stretch under Narduzzi. And we could roll the calendar back a bit to include the two games prior to the win over Duke. After the crushing loss at UCF, Pitt hosted a ranked Syracuse team and dropped them in overtime. Then the Panthers went to Notre Dame and gave the No. 3 Irish all they could handle. It was a loss, yes, but it was an encouraging loss, and that six-game run was probably about as good as things have been under Narduzzi.

I suppose if we’re going to include “good” losses, we could extend the 2015 winning streak to include the first three games of the season: a win over Youngstown State, a win at Akron and then a close loss on a ridiculous field goal at Iowa.

That’s a pretty impressive seven-game run, and when Narduzzi’s first season opened with a 7-1 record, people were excited about the future.

But I’ll take the 2018 stretch of games. Pitt had a chance to legitimately win something - a Coastal championship - and the Panthers, despite a rough start to the season, stepped up and got it done with some pretty strong performances.

ONE PREDICTION

You will eventually find out whether this offseason was a success
I guess that’s kind of vague, but the truth is, I don’t know. Not right now I don’t.

I don’t know if this offseason will be a success for Jeff Capel or not. I don’t know if he’ll get the pieces he needs to field a competitive roster in the ACC. I don’t know if the work being done this spring and summer will lead to a better team in the fall and winter.

I don’t know.

Neither do you.

And we won’t know until the roster is actually assembled.

I mean, nothing is a certainty, but I’m relatively confident that Pitt will actually field a full or near-full roster this season. That could mean 13 scholarship players plus Nike Sibande, or maybe 12 plus Sibande. But it will be enough to get five guys on the court at a time and have a few more to fill out an eight-man rotation.

I am reasonably confident about that, and I’m sure you are, too. So while it’s pretty much the last thing a guy should say when a significant element of his business is a message board, I can’t help but think that it would do everyone good to just be patient.

Look, Pitt may get this offseason all wrong. Capel might miss on the high school guys he is going after - even the very recent offers - and all of his top transfer targets might end up elsewhere, leaving Pitt with transfers who look a little too much like the transfers the Panthers have gotten in the past (especially at center).

Maybe that will happen. It very well might. And it very well might not.

I don’t know.

Neither do you.

But we’ll find out. A few months from now, when the roster has more or less come together, we’ll know how Capel did this offseason. I’m just like everyone else: I want to see Pitt get some players, either recruits or transfers, if for no other reason than just to calm everyone down a bit. But I think there’s value in patience.

That doesn’t mean you have to assume that Capel has it all figured out and is going to kill it this offseason. It just means that you can acknowledge that there’s a lot of time left to complete this roster, and just because it isn’t finished on April 2 doesn’t mean it won’t be finished on May 2 or June 2 or July 2.

And the current state of the roster also doesn’t have much impact on how set Pitt will be to compete in the ACC this season. There are still plenty of available players who can help this team in 2021-22 and there is still plenty of time to get them.

We’ll all find out how Capel did. We’ll all find out how good this roster will be. We’ll all get the answers. Hopefully sooner and not later, but we’ll know.

Until then, let’s just see what happens.