In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the state of the offense and defense heading into the final scrimmage of camp. Plus: the latest on the quarterback battle, the defensive end question and more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Everybody loves a quarterback controversy
Don’t they?
First off, let’s call it a quarterback competition. To me, quarterback controversies happen during the season when there’s some on-field evidence that everybody can see and compare.
Quarterback competitions happen during training camp when two or more quarterbacks are splitting reps and battling for the starting job.
And brother, Pitt has a quarterback competition going on right now.
As training camp moves toward its second and final scrimmage and its fourth and final week, the Panthers are embroiled in a full-blown quarterback competition. Nate Yarnell is the returning starter; he only started two games last year, but they were the final two games, so that makes him the returning starter.
His main competition, as you know, is Eli Holstein, the redshirt freshman who transferred from Alabama this offseason and just might have been the Panthers’ top acquisition from the transfer portal (a title he will secure if he ends up being Pitt’s starting quarterback).
In terms of experience, Yarnell has the advantage. He has thrown 76 passes over the course of six games played, three of which he started and two of which he won.
Holstein hasn’t played in any games. He has zero career snaps. He was a four-star prospect coming out of high school in Louisiana and obviously showed enough potential and promise to earn a scholarship from Nick Saban, but the only thing he has done in college is face Alabama’s defensive starters every week as the scout team quarterback for a year.
We’ve been told that he did well in that job and gave the Tide’s top defenders a challenge each week. But that’s just what we’ve been told. We don’t actually know ourselves because we don’t have anything to go on beyond high school film.
I asked Pat Narduzzi this week what Holstein does well, and he referenced the athleticism and running skills that apparently have been among Holstein’s strengths on the college football video game.
“I would say just his athletic ability, maybe what he does in the pocket might give him that advantage, okay?” Narduzzi said Thursday. “But then you look at Nate, the advantage is, he's played in ball games, and we know what he does when the lights turn on, too.”
Like I wrote in yesterday’s camp report, it's true: they do know what Yarnell does in games. The question is, do they believe Holstein can do more?
That’s ultimately what this competition will come down to. I think the baseline requirements for a quarterback are protecting the football and getting it to open receivers. That's where it has to start, and Yarnell has done a good job of that in the limited opportunities he has gotten.
But can he do more than the baseline? Can he protect the ball and also make some big plays to carry the offense? I’m not sure we’ve seen that from him.
I know we haven’t seen it from Holstein either, but I have to believe that’s what the coaches are looking for:
Someone who hits the baseline - solid, efficient play - but can also do more.
If Narduzzi and Kade Bell conclude that Yarnell has that extra something, he’ll turn his two-game run of starts into a longer streak. If they believe Holstein has the higher upside - in addition to meeting the baseline - he’ll be the guy.
It’s going to be really interesting to see what happens. I don’t know when Narduzzi will name a starter; part of me thinks it won’t be until the week of the Kent State game. But it’s going to be really interesting to see what develops in the next week or two.
In the meantime, nothing gets the juices flowing like a good, old-fashioned quarterback battle.
The defense is ahead
Pitt has one scrimmage in the books, and if that scrimmage was any indication, the old adage runs true:
Defense really does start faster than offense in camp.
I think every coach at every level of football has said that at some point, and they have all probably said it at least once per year. And they say it so often because it’s true.
Defense starts faster.
I think there are a few reasons why that happens. Defense is, by nature, reactive. Defensive coordinators, Pat Narduzzi included, like to think they can dictate what happens in a game. But the reality is, they’re mostly just reacting to what an offense does. Whether it’s by drive or by play, everything a defense does is a reaction.
So when camp starts and both sides of the ball are getting into the groove, the offense might stumble a bit trying to get its execution down, but the defense? They’re just reacting to what the offense does. Just like they always are.
As such, it wasn’t too big of a surprise to hear that Pitt’s defense emerged victorious from the Panthers’ first scrimmage of training camp last weekend.
For Narduzzi, these scrimmages typically come down to turnovers. As he often says, if the offense protects the ball, they’ll probably win the scrimmage; conversely, if the defense gets a couple takeaways, that unit will probably come out on top.
That has always been Narduzzi’s mantra, so it was a little interesting that he didn’t really emphasize turnovers when recapping last Saturday’s scrimmage. Yes, the defense forced two - interceptions by P.J. O’Brien and Cruce Brookins - but Narduzzi almost seemed to brush those off. The bigger difference between the offense and defense, he said, was the energy of the defense.
They simply outplayed the offense. They had more energy, they attacked and they played well.
The offense, by contrast, did not play well. They were not clean and didn’t execute at a high enough level to be effective. Some of this should probably be expected. Pitt’s defensive system has been in place for 10 years. The offense has been in place for about seven months. And not only is it a new offensive system, but it’s a new offensive system that is a complete 180 from what they did before, highlighted by a high-speed tempo approach that can verge on being a train wreck if it’s not executed well.
So there might be some growing pains, even two weeks into training camp after having a full spring camp and summer workouts to iron out those growing pains.
I guess what I’m saying is, it’s natural that Pitt’s offense lost the scrimmage, and I might add this:
Pitt’s came out of the scrimmage with a very clear picture of where it needs to improve. The Panthers put Kade Bell’s offensive scheme to work and got a real indication of where the warts are.
Now they know what they have to improve, and they’ve got just about two weeks to do it.
A strong developing unit
The defense may be ahead of the offense overall, but how does that group look when we compare it to itself?
Put another way, how good is the defense? How good can the defense be?
Pretty good, I think.
Look, there are always unknowns, particularly when you are essentially breaking in nine new starters on one side of the ball and most of those new starters have limited playing time in their careers.
But as I go position-by-position with the defense, I can’t help but feel pretty bullish.
Start on the back end. If you’ve read any of these columns or basically heard me speak a single word about Pitt football since the end of last season, you know what I think about the safeties. It’s a talented and deep group that returns three guys with plenty of playing time and production - Donovan McMillon, Javon McIntyre and P.J. O’Brien were all among the top eight on the team in tackles last season, combining for 231 stops - and those three are backed up by two of the most promising young players on the team in Cruce Brookins and Jesse Anderson.
At cornerback, a top-three is coming into focus with Ryland Gandy, Rashad Battle and Tamon Lynum. The coaches would like to get that number to four for a full two-deep, but this defense can survive with a three-man rotation, and all three are long, physical athletes who seem to fit the mold well.
Then there’s the linebackers, and if you thought I learned my lesson with overhyping Pitt linebackers last year, then call me Judas Priest because you’ve got another thing coming.
I just can’t get over this group. The outside linebackers, in particular, look really, really impressive. Kyle Louis, Rasheem Biles, Braylan Lovelace and Jordan Bass are all athletic players who seem to be excelling at flying around and getting to the ball. And they’re making plays, too: at last count, those four have combined for at least 10 turnovers forced in training camp. That’s more than any other position group has (even the safeties, where Brookins and O’Brien are running out of space on their helmets for “TAKEAWAY” stickers).
And the other group that’s making some noise is the defensive tackles. Like the outside linebackers, there’s a lot of youth and inexperience in that group, but it looks really promising. One of my favorite Stats of Camp is that the defensive tackles have more former four-star prospects than any other position group on the team - six of the eight scholarship tackles were four-stars - and while that doesn’t guarantee anything, I think some of that talent is going to emerge this season, and I think the tackles have a chance to be pretty good.
Really, the biggest concern is at defensive end, and we’ll talk about that in a minute. But I can’t help feeling pretty bullish about those other nine spots, and that should lead to another pretty good defense overall.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
What’s the biggest question mark?
So, about the defensive ends…
I may be overlooking something with the other nine spots on defense, but I really feel at this point that the ends are the biggest question mark.
Why is that?
Well, there are a few reasons. And, as always, it starts with recruiting.
This year’s roster could include players dating back to the 2019 recruiting class. That class brought two defensive ends to Pitt: Nate Temple and Bam Brima.
Temple is still here, although he’s recovering from an injury he suffered in the spring, and it’s up in the air as to when he’ll be able to play. Brima was removed from the team prior to camp due to some weird eligibility things.
In 2020, Pitt signed Dayon Hayes, Emmanuel Belgrave and Sam Williams.
Hayes, as you surely know, is at Colorado. Belgrave was at Tennessee-Martin last year; I’m not sure where he is now. Williams is at Murray State.
In 2021, Pitt signed Nahki Johnson and Naquan Brown. Johnson is still at Pitt, but he’s playing defensive tackle now. Brown transferred to Norfolk State, but I don’t know if he ever got on the field there (or even made the roster).
Pitt signed Samuel Okunlola and Jimmy Scott in 2022. Scott is still at Pitt, but Okunlola is with Hayes at Colorado.
Last year’s class brought Maverick Gracio and Antonio Camon to Pitt. Gracio is still here, but Camon transferred to Florida A&M this spring.
So let’s add all of that up.
11 defensive end recruits signed with Pitt over the course of five classes from 2019 through 2023. Three of them are still playing defensive end at Pitt (and that’s including Temple, so right now it’s more like two and a half).
For starters, signing roughly two ends per class simply isn’t enough. Even with the complicating factor of the Covid year and super seniors, it’s just not enough to build a healthy rotation. Throw in the wash-out of nearly three-quarters of five years’ worth of recruiting, and you’ve got a position that’s going to be really barren.
That’s why Pitt signed three transfers at defensive end this offseason. That’s why a true freshman is likely to be in the two-deep.
That’s why defensive end is the biggest question mark on the defense (and no worse than a top-three question mark, positionally, on the team).
And when you start trying to project the two-deep at defensive end, you end up with at least two transfers in the mix - Kansas State’s Nate Matlack and Nebraska’s Chief Borders - who are making the transition not just in schools but in their defensive roles, plus Scott, who has played 109 snaps in his career, and, most likely, Sincere Edwards, a four-star true freshman.
You know what? Now that I think about it, defensive end isn’t a big question mark.
It’s a bunch of big question marks.
What’s the state of the offense?
That’s not a big question or anything.
Hey, what should I write about for the fifth section of the column? Oh, I know: a full rundown of the most crucial question facing Pitt football in 2024. That should fit into 500 words.
Let’s see if I can be into the whole brevity thing.
Look, the offense is the biggest question for the team this season. I know I said the defensive ends are one of the biggest question marks on the team, but that was positionally. More broadly, in the sense of big-picture issues that will either make or break Pitt’s season, there’s the offense and there’s everything else.
And within that broad, big-picture assessment, there are a bunch of little questions.
Who will be the quarterback? Can the running backs make an impact in the passing game? Is the offensive line depth solid enough to withstand an injury or two? Will the tight ends be involved at all? Will the receivers be able to make plays if the scheme works as it should and gives them opportunities to get open?
Question marks for everyone. Everyone gets a question mark.
Do we have any answers?
Not really, but there are a few conclusions I think we can draw.
The quarterback situation should be settled soon (more on that in a minute). But I’m coming around on the skill players. I think Rodney Hammond can have a solid Rodney Hammond season, and I am buying in more and more on Desmond Reid being a big part of this offense.
I’m also coming around on the receivers - particularly the two guys who have experience in Kade Bell’s offense: Censere Lee and Raphael Williams (a far more pressing question is when I will give in and just start calling Williams “Poppi”).
We all know that Lee and Williams - and Reid, for that matter - are not the biggest guys. But they know this offense, they know how it works and they know how to succeed in it. Their individual success will depend, in large part, on the player at other positions (like quarterback), but I think those three guys can excel if they get the chance.
I also really like Konata Mumpfield and Kenny Johnson. I still don’t know if there’s a big-time WR1 in the group, but I think they should be good enough to make plays if the scheme works and the quarterbacks get the ball to them.
The tight ends…I mean, just please get the ball to Gavin Bartholomew. Please.
And the offensive line will probably come down to health, which is tough to predict.
That’s a positional look at the offense, but it doesn’t really address the biggest question:
Will this offense work? Will Bell’s system translate to the ACC? Will the offense be able to operate cleanly and execute the tempo to make plays against ACC defenses?
That’s the biggest question and the one that will ultimately determine the success of the season. And it’s the most impossible question to answer right now, because we won’t know until the games are played.
That’s what makes it so tough to predict a record for this team. I keep going with 8-5, but really, who knows until we see what the offense can do?
So we wait. We draw conclusions about individual players or position groups and try - emphasis on “try” - to extend those conclusions to the offense overall and, in the biggest of pictures, the team.
But we really don’t know. I don't even know if the coaches know.
We just have to wait and see.
ONE PREDICTION
Sunday’s scrimmage will be huge for the offense
All of these questions we’ve asked about the offense, all the concerns we’ve voiced and the issues we’ve raised - they will all come to a head on Sunday.
Pitt’s scrimmage this weekend is potentially the biggest non-game event of the offseason for the Panthers, because the answers to a lot, if not all, of these questions will be revealed.
Some of those answers might not be what the coaches are looking for. The offense might not clean up the issues that cost it last week’s scrimmage. They might still struggle with the tempo and have problems executing cleanly. They might have procedure penalties and other unforced errors. They might have misplays and miscommunications and every other kind of miss that’s possible for an offense that isn’t quite there yet.
And then again, they might put something together. They might iron out those issues. They might be a little more comfortable with the tempo against a live defense. They might be a little sharper in their assignments and executions. They might start looking like a fully-functioning unit that can move the ball assertively.
Either one could happen, and it’s just as likely that Sunday’s scrimmage produces a bit of both.
But whatever happens, Pat Narduzzi, Kade Bell and the rest of the staff will have a pretty good idea of where the offense stands by Sunday night.
For better or for worse.
I’ll go a step further and say that the coaches will have a pretty clear idea of where they stand with their quarterbacks on Sunday night. This is the real prediction of this week’s column:
Sunday’s scrimmage will determine the starting quarterback, at least for the Kent State game.
I don’t mean to overstate the importance of the scrimmage, but I really do think it means that much in terms of the quarterback competition. After the scrimmage, Pitt will have three practices next week (I believe they are off on Monday). They’ll have a walk-through before the kickoff luncheon on Friday and then it’s on to game week.
I don’t think the quarterback competition will be won or lost in those three practices next week, and I also don’t think it’s going to be won or lost during game week.
I think Sunday is the main event. I think Sunday is when Nate Yarnell and Eli Holstein will each make a statement about why they deserve the starting job.
Does that put some pressure on those guys?
Yeah, it does. And it should. Games bring pressure, and games are won by the quarterbacks who handle the pressure.
So yes, Yarnell and Holstein should feel some pressure in Sunday’s scrimmage, and how they handle that pressure should go a long way in determining which one of them should be the starter.
Narduzzi said that both quarterbacks were pressing a bit in last week’s scrimmage rather than taking what the defense gives them, so that's an element to consider as well. They have to take what’s available, but they also have to make plays.
Like we said before, which quarterback can achieve the baseline - no turnovers, efficient play - and also elevate the offense?
That’s the guy who should get the job, and if one of them shows they can do it on Sunday, I think they’ll get the job.
