The 3-2-1 Column: A new commit, the future, RBs and more
In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Pitt landing a commitment, what the future will look like, Pitt's rushing game and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Finally, a commitment
The Annie Potts gif was hitting on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night - about an hour after we wrapped up this week’s Panther-Lair Show, conveniently - Pitt got a commitment for the class of 2021. You’ve seen this news by now, but we’ll recap it briefly to set the table:
Nate Santos, a 6’7” swingman from outside Chicago who attends Loomis Chaffee School in Connecticut, picked the Panthers.
Aside from the obvious highlight there of Pitt actually getting a commitment, I imagine what stands out the most in that news is the way I described Santos: 6’7” swingman. And let’s add another key term:
Shooter.
That’s all anyone has talked about with Santos since he got his offer from Pitt two weeks ago, and for good reason. He’s a very good shooter who can play guard or forward. And he’s 6’7”.
That seems like a good combination.
Of course, there’s always a question about why Santos is still available at this stage of the process. I mean, the spring signing period starts next Wednesday; surely, some other schools could use a 6’7” shooter, right? And yet Santos really had two options - Pitt and George Washington - so what gives?
Well, there’s some backstory. He tore his ACL in Feb. 2019, which held him out of all the evaluation events in the spring and summer of 2019. He played his junior season in 2019-20 and was probably looking forward to making his name at the AAU circuit events in the spring and summer of 2020, but everybody knows what happened in the spring and summer of 2020.
Add in the fact that Loomis Chaffee didn’t play a 2020-21 season, and you can see how a guy like him could slip through the cracks.
Unfortunate for Santos, but maybe a bit of fortune for Pitt.
We’ll talk about how Santos fits with the roster in a moment, but really, I think everyone probably had the same reaction when his commitment was announced.
“Finally.”
We’ve all been waiting a long time for Pitt to get someone - anyone - to agree to join the roster for 2021-22. Transfer, high school recruit, whoever it may be, Pitt fans have wanted to see someone show some belief in the program and announce a desire to be a part of it.
Nate Santos is that guy, and I think a lot of people breathed a sigh of relief when he made his commitment. There’s a lot of building left to do and we’ll get into that shortly, but at some point, there had to be a first brick in the wall. Nate Santos decided to be it, and now we’ll be watching to see who else joins him.
The fit
So how does Nate Santos fit in with Pitt’s roster?
I’ll say right off the bat that I’m not thinking too far down the road. Yes, Pitt will need a full lineup for the 2022-23 season and 2023-24 and beyond, when Santos ostensibly should be on the team in those seasons. But I’ll be honest: I’m having a hard time projecting too far into the future.
If this offseason has shown us anything - and, more relevantly, if this offseason is any indication - it’s that you really can’t count on anyone being around for any length of time. Yes, you would like to think you’ll have Nate Santos and anybody else who joins him in Pitt’s 2021 class on the roster for the next four years. But the reality is, you can’t count on that happening.
So we’ll focus today on what Santos can do for Pitt in this coming season, because I’m pretty confident he’ll at least be on the roster then.
Simply put, we come back to the main word that we mentioned above:
Shooter.
Santos is a shooter and Pitt needs a few of those. You know that anecdotally from watching the team last season, and the numbers back it up. The Panthers were No. 11 in the ACC in three-point shooting percentage and No. 14 in three-pointers made. They were even No. 14 in three-pointers attempted: they didn’t shoot many three’s, and they didn’t make a very high percentage of the three’s they tried.
Four players on Pitt’s roster last season attempted at least 40 three-pointers: Ithiel Horton, Xavier Johnson, Justin Champagnie and Au’Diese Toney. Obviously, two of those four are already gone from the roster and a third could be leaving as well. And that’s just volume attempts; in terms of made three-pointers, Horton was the only player on the team to sink more than 25, and he did it while shooting 37.1%.
So while he returns as Pitt’s main three-point threat, it’s tough to make a living with only one real shooter on the team. Granted, Nike Sibande shot 43.6% on 39 three-point attempts last season, but that’s a full 10 percentage points higher than the 33.6% he shot in 97 games at Miami (Oh.), so I’m not sure if you can count on him.
I think you get the point: Pitt needed another shooter this offseason. That was one of the top three needs and probably not No. 3 on that list, and Santos seems like he can fill the role.
Santos has the versatility to play shooting guard or small forward, which should give Jeff Capel a few interesting options. I’m guessing Santos will primarily back up Will Jeffress at the three, where Femi Odukale and Nike Sibande could dish to him off the drive. He could also pair with Horton at a dual three-point threat; it’s pretty interesting to consider Odukale using a screen set by Santos to drive and then kick back to Santos at the top of the arc or Horton on the wing.
I think that just might work.
The next step
Okay, that’s one player in the fold.
Now what?
Pitt is set to bring back Odukale, Sibande, Horton, Jeffress, Noah Collier and Max Amadasun, with all but Sibande counting against the 13-man scholarship limit. So, really, the Panthers have five counting scholarship players coming back, plus the ever-looming possibility that Justin Champagnie could return as well.
Throw in Nate Santos, and you’ve got six and potentially seven scholarships accounted for.
That leaves a lot of openings.
I think I’ve decided that I’m going to use six as the projected number for remaining open scholarships. That would be the total number available if Champagnie comes back, but even if he decides to leave for the NBA, I’m not entirely convinced that Jeff Capel will use all 13 scholarships.
That’s partly because I could see Capel wanting to carry some space into next offseason. Pitt doesn’t currently have any seniors-to-be on scholarship, so Capel and company will have to be creative with getting open spots for the 2022-23 roster.
That’s another discussion for another day; my main point is that I think he could leave at least one scholarship open this season, which would’t necessarily mean Pitt is playing short-handed since Sibande will be a scholarship player who doesn’t count against the 13.
Anyway, let’s just set six as the target number for remaining additions. What do the Panthers need?
Well, it starts in the same place we’ve been saying it starts for the last few weeks/months:
The center position.
Pitt needs a center. Multiple centers. I think one transfer and one high school prospect would be ideal and I think Capel probably has the same notion; now it’s just a matter of getting them. Efton Reid would obviously be Pitt’s preferred option for the high school spot, but I really don’t know what’s going to happen there, and while it’s not really based on anything, I feel my confidence waning.
If that falls through, the Panthers might have to find all of their answers in the transfer portal. That could mean an upperclassman and a younger player, maybe somebody who transferred after their freshman year, and honestly, that’s not a bad approach. There’s not too much difference in getting a freshman transfer and a high school recruit; in fact, it might be even better to get a young transfer, because they’ve got some experience in college.
Either way, I think they need at least two centers. That would take up two spots out of the six we’re considering. Beyond that, I think a point guard is pretty key. Pitt’s got Odukale and…well, they have no other scholarship point guards. Onyebuchi Ezeakudo has done okay filling in when needed, but I think they need another scholarship option on the roster. Obviously a transfer would be ideal, but it might be tough to convince a transfer to come in as a backup. That’s okay, because I think a high school recruit would suffice.
That still leaves three more spots. I think a big forward of some kind would be a good use of one of those spots, especially if Champagnie doesn’t come back. That could be a transfer or a high school kid, but you know what? Why not both?
Seriously, with this many open spots, Capel has a lot of directions he can go positionally, and there are a lot of sources he can explore to fill those openings. I’m sure he’s got some specific plans in mind, but the only parameters I would put on it are these:
Center
Center
Point guard
Forward
And then whatever you can get after that.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Is next offseason going to be crazy like this one?
This is something I’m really, really curious about.
I keep saying, almost mantra-like, that this offseason is really unique and we’ve never seen anything like this and we might not ever see anything like it again.
Except…I’m not so sure about that last part.
I can’t say I predicted the 2021 offseason would look like this, with more than 1,200 players in the transfer portal and new entrants seemingly every day. I knew from seeing the increase in football transfers this year that the basketball transfer portal would be active. But I never imagined it would be like this.
Now my big question is, will it be like this again?
There’s part of me that says no. There’s part of me that says the last year was unlike anything we’ve ever experienced. Starting roughly 55 or so weeks ago, life turned upside down, and it hasn’t completely righted itself just yet.
And when things go upside down, people can gain new perspectives on their situations. Maybe the extreme nature of the last year caused a few of these players to think about where they were and whether they were happy being there, and the relative ease of entering the transfer portal and play right away at a new school created the opportunity to explore other options.
Maybe when we get to the spring of 2022, when things have - hopefully - calmed down a bit and returned to something at least approaching normal after going through a season with fans in attendance and no COVID testing or masks and all of that, maybe players won’t find themselves prone to such thoughts.
Maybe things will balance out a little bit.
Maybe.
Alternatively, maybe 2021 was just the opening of the door. Or, some could say, Pandora’s box. And it might not close again.
Maybe the players have gotten a taste of real freedom of movement - the kind of freedom that just about anyone else in any other walk of life has - and there’s no going back.
I could absolutely see that.
My guess is somewhere in the middle. I don’t think the transfer numbers will be where they are this year. I don’t think we’ll see 1,000-plus players leave their schools. But I also think that freedom of movement - I don’t think that’s getting taken away anytime soon. And I don’t think the players will choose to not exercise that freedom of movement.
They’ve seen what it’s like. They’ve seen the sheer volume of movement this offseason. Almost all of them have seen at least a few teammates go. They know that if they’re not totally satisfied with their situation, they can bolt.
I’m not sure you can come back from that without new rules restricting player movement, and we all know that’s not happening. So my expectation for next spring is that there won’t be 1,200 transfers, but there will still be a lot.
And because of that, coaches can’t expect that anybody they recruit will stick around for four years, so they’ll have to continue adjusting their approach to roster management.
The game has changed.
Who can bring balance?
Like you, when I think about Pitt football in 2021, I think about the onus being on the offense. And when I think about the onus being on the offense, I think about the running game needing to improve. And when I think about the running game needing to improve…well, that’s when I really start wondering what this season will be.
Look, we’ve said it a million times already and we’ll say it a million more times before the season starts: the key to success in 2021 is getting the offense going, and the key to getting the offense going is producing an effective running game.
Yes, dropped passes and procedure penalties and fumbles were a problem the last two seasons; I’ve documented those at length. But the running game - that’s the key. Pitt has to find a way to generate something of an effective running game.
This isn’t a dyed-in-black-and-gold pining for smash-mouth football born of watching too many Jerome Bettis highlights. This is an honest appraisal of the situation, where Pitt’s offense has been one of the worst in the nation in a lot of categories.
Scoring is one of those categories. Rushing is another. And I don’t think those two are disconnected. In fact, I think there’s a pretty direct correlation in the lack of consistent scoring being tied to the predictability of Pitt’s offense as a one-dimensional unit.
But we all know this. Ask any Pitt fan and they’ll tell you the offense needs more balance. Or they’ll tell you Mark Whipple should have been let go this offseason, which they’ll say because he didn’t have enough balance in his offense.
The big question is, who can make that balance happen? I’m talking players now: do the Panthers have a 1,000-yard rusher on their current roster?
I don’t know. We know all the names: Vincent Davis, A.J. Davis, other guys not named Davis. But we have yet to see any of them play like a 1,000-yard rusher for any consistent period of time, by which I mean we haven’t seen any of them look like a 1,000-yard rusher for more than one game.
Sure, Vincent Davis looked like he could do it in last season’s finale against Georgia Tech. A.J. Davis looked like he was up to the task in the win at Syracuse two years ago, too. But in the game before Vincent Davis went off for 247 yards against the Yellow Jackets, he had 19 yards on five carries in a loss at Clemson and he topped 50 rushing yards in a game just twice.
Similarly, A.J. Davis rushed 16 times for 103 yards in the Carrier Dome in 2019. A week later, he had just 45 yards on 15 carries in a loss to Miami.
That’s not much of a resume, which isn’t to say that those guys can’t rush for 1,000 yards; just that they haven’t done it.
Look, this isn’t exactly a new question. We’ve talked about Pitt’s running game and the need for a back to step up a bunch already this offseason and it’s only the first week of April. What I think it probably comes down to is this:
Pitt needs a 1,000-yard rusher. Having one greatly increases your chances of not having a lousy season. The numbers actually back that up.
There have been 22 seasons when the Panthers have had a player rush for 1,000 yards (that includes 2018, when two guys did it). Of those 22 seasons, Pitt had a losing record just five times: 1993, 1994, 2007, 2012 and 2014.
Now, there are a few caveats, of course. Not all of those non-losing seasons are created equal. They include 2018, for example, when Pitt went 7-7. They also include 1985, when the Panthers were 5-5-1. And there’s a bunch of seven and eight-win seasons in there, too.
It’s also a stretch to say that the 1,000-yard rusher was the sole reason behind Pitt’s records in those years. A lot went into those records, naturally, but I do think there’s something to be said for a balanced offense, and having a 1,000-yard rusher is a good way to get some balance, especially if you are a prolific passing team.
Pitt has had a prolific passing offense the last two seasons. Now it’s time to bring a little balance.
ONE PREDICTION
This rotation, it will be robust
I know I’ve talked about the linebackers in at least one previous 3-2-1 Column, and you’ve probably heard me say a few times that I’m particularly keen on that group this season. I think they have talent, experience and depth, and they should be one of the strengths of the defense - and the team - in 2021.
But I was thinking about the linebackers again this week after Pat Narduzzi threw some extra praise to the group on Tuesday. In particular, Narduzzi singled out John Petrishen, the seventh-year senior Central Catholic alum who transferred from Penn State in August 2019.
Petrishen spent most of 2019 on special teams and then spent most of 2020 transitioning from safety to linebacker (and, apparently, transitioning to a plant-based diet, but that’s a conversation for another day).
Now, entering his third season at Pitt and his second full go as a linebacker, it sounds like Petrishen is making his case for playing time.
“Knock on wood he stays healthy, but he’s had a heck of a spring so far. He’s getting better and he’s lightyears ahead of where he was last year,” Narduzzi said.
That’s pretty intriguing to me. Not because I think Petrishen will start, but if you put him on the two-deep at one of the outside linebacker positions, you’ve now got a pretty robust depth chart.
Middle linebacker: Chase Pine (super senior), Wendell Davis (redshirt junior)
Money linebacker: Phil Campbell (super senior), SirVocea Dennis (junior)
Star linebacker: Cam Bright (redshirt senior), John Petrishen (super senior)
I don’t know if that’s exactly the order they’ll be in when Pitt takes the field, but that’s not the point. The point is, that’s a whole bunch of veteran players with a lot of experience. The Panthers can legitimately go two-deep with players who have no less than three years of playing time on their resumes, and the youngest guy is Dennis, who was second on the team in tackles, tied for the team lead in tackles for loss and led the linebackers in sacks last season.
That’s pretty good. And I haven’t even mentioned guys like Bangally Kamara and Solomon DeShields, second-year players who will be pushing for playing time, or Brandon George, a junior who has worked in backup roles over the last two seasons.
I’m not entirely sure when or how it happened, but all of a sudden, Pitt is kind of stacked at linebacker.
That’s a nice change of pace. We’ve seen Pitt play through some pretty lean years at linebacker, and as Narduzzi’s staff has built up depth and talent on the defensive line and in the secondary, the linebacker position has been a questionable spot in the middle.
I don’t think it will be too questionable this season.