In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about a pretty great month for Pitt sports, where the Panthers stand in the ACC, Eli Holstein's future and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
What a time…
…to be a Pitt sports program.
Seriously, the last four weeks have been just about as good as it gets for a 28-day span in September.
If you go back exactly four weeks to Friday, August 30, and look at what has transpired since then, it’s pretty damn remarkable. And there are a bunch of ways to quantify and qualify the remarkableness of it.
Five Pitt team sports are active right now: football, women’s volleyball, men’s and women’s soccer and softball.
Since August 30, those five teams have played a combined 28 games.
Their combined record in those 28 games:
25-3
That’s a heck of a lot of winning. The only three losses were on the pitch, and even those were minor low points in a very good month. The men’s soccer team lost at Penn 1-0 on September 1 and then came back a week later with a 3-1 win over a ranked SMU team on the road before rattling off three more wins in a row heading into tonight’s match at Virginia Tech.
The women’s soccer team was in good shape until they lost 1-0 last Thursday to North Carolina, a top-ten team, and then fell at Cal last night.
But those were all of the losses, and now that they’re out of the way, we can talk about the wins.
Like the football team trailing by 21 at Cincinnati only to come back to control the final 20 minutes and land a huge win on the road. Or following that win with a comeback against West Virginia that was an instant classic and will live in the hearts and minds of Pitt fans for a long time.
Those wins filled the middle section of the team’s 4-0 start, marking the program’s first perfect non-conference record since the Panthers joined the Big East in the early 1990’s.
And then there’s the volleyball team, where perfection takes on even more meaning, since those Panthers aren’t just perfect in their record at 10-0 - they’ve also been perfect in every game, not losing a single set over the course of 10 matches.
That stretch was highlighted by a 3-0 win over Penn State at home last week, and you know how Pitt fans feel about beating PSU at anything.
It’s an incredible run of dominance that elevated Dan Fisher’s team to No. 1 in the national rankings - a position that the men’s soccer team also reached this week.
That’s right: Pitt has two teams currently ranked No. 1 in the nation.
So let’s recount:
Since August 30, Pitt’s teams have gone 25-3 overall, the football team engineered two comeback victories, the volleyball team hasn’t lost a single set and two programs are ranked at the top of their sports.
What a month.
(And if you want to really push the numbers, you could include the 5-1-1 record the soccer programs posted before August 30, giving the five program a fall season record of 30-4–1. That’s impressive, but I like 25-3 a little better).
Sheer dominance
Somehow, the word “dominance” doesn’t seem like it is adequate for what the Pitt women’s volleyball program is doing right now.
10 games played. 10 game wins. 30 sets. 30 set wins.
Talk about perfection: that’s perfection.
10-0 in games and 30-0 in sets.
I don’t know a whole lot about volleyball, but that seems good. I keep trying to come up with a parallel for this in other sports, and I can’t really find one.
Even in college football, there are four undefeated teams at the top of the polls, and they all look really good. But none of them is dominating at the level Pitt volleyball is right now (if Alabama or Georgia can get a blowout win in their game this Saturday, maybe - maybe - we’ll consider them being on the same level).
So yeah, I just don’t see a comparison for what Dan Fisher’s powerhouse is doing right now. Led by some of the best individual players in the country - bona fide superstars - this team has a certain air about it. In every sport, there are always great teams, teams that dominate.
But there’s another level above that, a level where great teams with great players aren’t just great teams with great players - they’re great teams with great players who know they’re great, who know they won’t be stopped, who know that if an opponent shows signs of life, they can put their collective foot on the other team’s collective throat and just shut them down.
Like the UMBC game this week. Not only did Pitt win every set, but the Panthers never trailed in any set, and UMBC scored consecutive points just five times the entire night.
In the game before that, Marquette gave a bit more of an effort. The Golden Eagles even took the first lead of the second set and had another lead at 9-8 - until the Panthers decided that was enough of that.
Pitt scored 10 of the next 12 points to turn Marquette’s 9-8 lead into an 18-11 deficit and then, having crushed the Golden Eagles’ hopes, coasted to a second set victory by seven. In the third set, the Panthers did it again, allowing Marquette to feel some optimism when Pitt’s lead was 9-8 only to score 10 of the next 11 points.
Whenever the Panthers needed to squash dreams of an upset, they did just that.
They even did it against Penn State last week. Every time Penn State got close, either tying or even taking a lead, Pitt responded. PSU went up 9-8? Pitt scored eight of the next 11 points. PSU cut Pitt’s lead to 18-17 in the second set? The Panthers took seven of the next nine points to win the set. And when PSU was desperate to get back in the match with a win in the third set? Pitt jumped out to a 16-6 lead right off the bat.
Penn State tried one last time with a six-point run, but the Panthers took three right back and then went blow-for-blow to win the match. Dan Fisher’s players knew they weren’t going to let Penn State win, and every time PSU scored, the Panthers had an answer.
It was the kind of performance that comes from not just being great but knowing that you’re great - knowing you’re the best, and there’s no way in hell some other team is going to walk into your building in front of your fans and knock you off.
Now, it seems pretty likely that, at some point this season, Pitt will lose. Even the greatest refuse-to-lose players take an L from time to time. But this team is a bunch of killers, talented and determined, and I think the smart bet is going to be on the Panthers pretty much every time they step on the court.
The season is just getting started, and it’s going to be a fun one.
There will be no questions about strength of schedule this year
Okay, so you just got left out of the NCAA Tournament, and the most commonly cited reason was your strength of schedule. What do you do?
What do you do?
Well, it looks like Jeff Capel has an answer, and it’s something along the lines of, ‘Play five power-conference opponents in two weeks, and do it all away from home.’
That’s what Pitt’s schedule looks like for the 2024-25 season. From the last week of November through the first week of December, the Panthers have five games on the books: every one is against a power-conference team and not one of the games will be played at the Petersen Events Center.
It starts on November 22, when Pitt will face LSU in the Greenbrier Tip-Off in West Virginia. Two days later, the Panthers will finish their run in that tournament against either UCF or Wisconsin.
The following Friday, Pitt will go to Columbus to take on Ohio State. Five days after that, the Panthers will be in Starkville to face Mississippi State as part of the SEC/ACC Challenge. And the gauntlet finishes with the now-traditional orphan ACC game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.
Five games in 17 days, and all of them will be on the road outside the 412.
That’s a schedule. Let’s see what Joe Lunardi has to say about that.
I mean, never mind the fact that it’s not really all that drastic of a change from last year, when Pitt played Florida and Oregon State in the Preseason NIT, faced Missouri in the SEC/ACC Challenge, hosted the orphan ACC game against Clemson and went to West Virginia all between November 22 and December 6 (almost the exact time frame).
That’s pretty close to this year’s schedule, albeit with a few key differences, like the SEC/ACC Challenge game and the orphan ACC game being on the road this year.
But the biggest difference is the Ohio State game. I consider that to be Capel’s “Response Game.” His “Lunardi Game.” His game to make everybody like Pitt’s non-conference schedule.
In some sense, the Ohio State game kind of replaces the WVU game as a matchup with a power-conference team on the road. But it doesn’t entirely replace it, since the Mountaineers are still on the schedule this year - the difference being that they’re coming to the Petersen Events Center.
So by the numbers, last year saw Pitt face four non-conference opponents from power conferences with two of those games at a neutral site and one in a true road game. This year, the Panthers have five non-conference opponents from power conferences: two games at a neutral site and two in true road situations plus one at home.
It’s the addition of one true road game that marks the biggest change from last year, and hey, if that’s what convinces the NCAA Tournament selection committee that a top-four team from the ACC should be in the field, then so be it.
I don’t think there’s any question that Pitt got jobbed last year. Capel and company weren’t entirely blameless - beat Missouri and they’re probably in - but just because you can share some of the blame doesn’t mean you didn’t get screwed.
Capel knows it, and he’s smart enough to know that he had to at least try to do something to address it.
So call the Ohio State game Pitt’s “Response Game,” because it sure looks like scheduling that one was Capel’s response to the SOS calls from the committee.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
What does Pitt need to do in the off week?
Pitt is off this week, allowing the fans an extra seven days to bask in the glory of the program’s first 4-0 start in 24 years.
The coaches and players can bask a bit, too, but they obviously have some more pressing matters than those of us on the outside. So what will the staff be focusing on this week? Here are a few key areas I think they need to address.
The pass rush - Pitt is No. 6 in the ACC with 11 sacks, which seems pretty solid. But almost half of those 11 came against Kent State, and while the Panthers managed three at Cincinnati and three against West Virginia, I don’t think anyone would claim that the pass rush has been up to snuff.
The issue is up front, of course. Nate Matlack has a team-high three sacks, which is good, but linebackers account for 4.5 sacks and the rest of the defensive line after Matlack makes up the other 3.5, with no lineman producing more than one sack so far. And the numbers are especially short in the middle of the line; Isaiah Neal has 0.5 sacks this season, and that’s the entirety of the sack production by the tackles. Through four games, the tackles have four total tackles for loss, and according to Pro Football Focus, they have accounted for nine pressures.
That’s just not enough. I don’t know how much of it can be fixed in one off week, but it’s not enough and it has to be a focal point.
Getting healthy - This is a big one. Pitt isn’t devastated by injuries, but a number of contributors have been limited or out, and the more the Panthers can get back, the better. Sean FitzSimmons hasn’t played this season; he could help with some of those issues at defensive tackle. Nick James left the Youngstown State game early; Pitt needs him back. Desmond Reid dressed but did not play against Youngstown State; he’s obviously a big piece of the puzzle on offense. And while his backup, Derrick Davis, might get replaced by Daniel Carter, it would be good to have him available; he left the YSU game with an injury, too.
Elsewhere, Ryan Jacoby has been in and out of the lineup this season; Jason Collier has filled in admirably at left guard, but it would probably be better to get Jacoby back. Keye Thompson has been in a sling since the Cincinnati game; his depth at middle linebacker would be good to have. And Juelz Goff has been out with an injury he suffered in training camp, but he was never ruled out for the season; having another explosive running back would help the offense.
Third down - On the season, Pitt is 19-of-43 on third down. That’s a 44% conversion rate, which looks pretty impressive. But in the Panthers’ two games against power-conference opponents, they only converted 5-of-19; that’s only 26.3%, which is decidedly worse. Pitt’s offense has found a lot of success in a lot of ways this season - and one of those has been avoiding third down altogether - but they’re going to need to convert on third down at a higher rate in order to extend drives and stay on the field. Big plays will always be the goal, but this offense has to be able to matriculate the ball down the field methodically, too.
Where is Pitt in the ACC?
After four weeks of the season (five if you count Week Zero), the ACC is coming into focus.
At least a little bit.
We’ve seen all the teams in the conference play a decent number of games and a decent number of power-conference opponents. We don’t entirely know how good everybody - or maybe anybody - is at this point, but we’re getting a sense of it.
So where does Pitt stack up in the league?
As you know, the Panthers are one of four undefeated teams along with Miami, Louisville and Duke. On that level, then, Pitt is a top-four team in the conference. And I actually do think that’s where the Panthers belong - even if I’m not sure all four of those 4-0 teams should make up the top four.
As of right now, I’m content to put Pitt at No. 3 behind Miami, the consensus No. 1 team in the league, and Clemson, a one-loss team that still has some name-recognition bias and, let’s be honest, some legit talent.
You could also make a case for Pitt at No. 2 ahead of Clemson (since they’re undefeated, after all) and you could make a case for Pitt at No. 4 if you’re inclined to slot Louisville in ahead of the Panthers. For now, I lean toward Pitt over the Cardinals due to strength of schedule.
Like everything, that can and will change in the near future.
Even if you are totally skeptical of the Panthers, I’m not sure you can put them lower than No. 5, and I suspect it would be a small minority that even would go that low on Pitt. For now, based on the undefeated record, a pair of wins over power-conference teams, a top-five quarterback and a top-two offense, the consensus is and should be that Pitt belongs in the top four.
I think one of the most interesting takes from this discussion is what we can glean about the conference as a whole when we attempt to rank the teams.
More specifically, I think it’s very interesting how much our perception of teams that have either exceeded or fell short of expectations is based on quarterback play.
Put another way, some of the most disappointing teams in the conference are disappointing because their quarterback play, which was expected to be good, has not lived up to it.
And at the same time, some of the biggest positive surprises this year are surprising because their quarterback play has been better than expected.
In the former category are Florida State and N.C. State. In the latter category are your Pitt Panthers.
I mean, really, that’s what it comes down to. There were high expectations for the quarterbacks at FSU (misguided, in my view) and N.C. State; those players have struggled, so those teams - both thought to be contenders for the ACC title - are among the biggest disappointments in the league.
Conversely, Pitt’s quarterback situation was viewed to be at the bottom of the ACC in the preseason. Instead, Eli Holstein has been one of the best players at the position so far, and the Panthers’ surprise place among the top teams in the league is directly connected to his play.
Quarterback play is almost always the most important factor in a team’s success, but with the ACC this year, the delta between preseason expectations and in-season performance is directly correlated with how the team’s quarterback situations were perceived and how they have played out.
Since Pitt’s quarterback situation has played out well above expectations, the Panthers are being perceived well above expectations.
And as long as Holstein keeps it up, they’ll keep performing above expectations.
ONE PREDICTION
Holstein will be ACC Rookie of the Year
This isn’t exactly going out on a limb, but then again, few of my predictions ever do.
But I did some research this week that involved looking through nearly a dozen years of ACC football media guides, and when I do something like that, I hate to let it go to waste, so here we are.
As you know, Eli Holstein was named ACC Rookie of the Week for the fourth time in as many weeks after his performance against Youngstown State. No surprises there: Holstein accounted for five touchdowns - three passing and two rushing - and more than 300 yards of offense while flawlessly and almost effortlessly leading Pitt to a blowout win.
Now, after four games, Holstein is certifiably among the best quarterbacks in the conference. He ranks third in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns and fifth in passing efficiency. He’s got two wins over power-conference opponents; Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos is the only other quarterback in the conference who can claim that.
And Holstein is doing all of this as a redshirt freshman.
As the season has gotten going and Holstein has been putting up impressive performances, a few people have drawn statistical comparisons to Kenny Pickett’s 2021 season. I resisted those comparisons, for a few reasons. But there was another stat comp I happened upon this week, and I’m going to throw it out there in the “Player A vs. Player B” format that kind of bugs me but I’m doing it anyway.
Player A is Holstein after four games.
Player B is Jameis Winston from the first four games of the Florida State quarterback’s redshirt freshman year in 2013.
Now, forget for a moment that Winston went on to win the Heisman Trophy and FSU won the national title that year. We’re trying to keep some perspective - at least, as much as we can - so I’ll stop short of all of that. But I will go this far:
Winston was named ACC Rookie of the Week six times in 2013. That ties for the most of any player since the conference expanded that year. The other time a player won that particular award was North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell in 2019, and not surprisingly, Winston and Howell were named ACC Rookie of the Year for their standout performances.
Ditto for Drake Maye in 2022, Tyler Van Dyke in 2021 and Trevor Lawrence in 2018, who all earned Rookie of the Week honors at least five times in a season.
As a matter of fact, of the eight players who were named ACC Rookie of the Week at least four times since 2013, seven went on to earn Rookie of the Year honors.
What I’m saying is, with four Rookie of the Week wins already for Holstein, history indicates that he’s practically a shoo-in for the yearly honor.
Set aside the fact that there aren’t really too many other rookies doing much so far this season; N.C. State quarterback C.J. Bailey, Miami running back Jordan Lyle and Louisville running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson are all contributing as true freshmen, and that’s about it.
But this is less about the level of competition and more about the fact that Holstein really is performing as one of the best players in the ACC through four games.
Not just one of the best rookies, but one of the best players overall.
In 2013, Winston was named the ACC Player of the Year (in addition to his more prominent national honors). Could Holstein get to that level? Yes, if he plays for the next eight games like he has for the first four. And he certainly seems capable of doing so.
For now, though, let’s stick with the Rookie of the Year.
We’re predicting that he gets that one.
