The 3-2-1 Column: A big one in Chapel Hill

Following a 4-0 record through non-conference play, Pitt Football is off to its best start as a program since the 2000 season. The schedule shifts to ACC play beginning with a road game against North Carolina tomorrow.

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we get you prepared for the Panthers’ first conference game, check in on Pitt’s other fall sports, and also take a heat check on the Panthers’ upcoming basketball season set to start in exactly one month, and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

All eyes on the Tar Heels

The Pitt Panthers had the benefit of a bye week to prepare for tomorrow’s ACC opener against North Carolina. The Panthers enter this game as having one of the most potent offenses in college football, and it will be put to the test against the Tar Heels, and the rest of the league over the next eight weeks.

Of course, all the focus right now is on North Carolina.

The Tar Heels are led by the winningest active coach in college football in Mack Brown, but the program appears to be at a bit of a crossroads in his sixth season since returning to Chapel Hill. North Carolina will bring a 3-2 record into this matchup, but the team is coming off a tough stretch with consecutive gutting losses.

The Tar Heels lost a head-scratcher two weeks ago when they allowed James Madison of the Sun Belt to trounce them 70-50 at home. North Carolina appeared to flush that performance and built up a 20-point lead on rival Duke on the road last week, before the Blue Devils ran off 21 unanswered points to hand the Tar Heels’ a heartbreaking 21-20 setback.

Despite North Carolina reeling a bit, this game will be far from an easy task for Pat Narduzzi’s team. Pitt has fared poorly against North Carolina through the years with a 5-12 record in the all-time series. The Panthers have been particularly bad in Chapel Hill, with an 0-7 record at Kenan Memorial Stadium.

Narduzzi, and the program for that matter, have had their fair share of tough losses at the hands of North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been a thorn in Pitt’s side for many years, with Kenan Stadium being a house of horrors for the Panthers.

Aside from the ghosts hanging over this game, there are some legitimate concerns from this North Carolina team. While they have faltered in their two most recent games, the Tar Heels have some talented players. There are certain areas where they have the edge and will use them to exploit some of Pitt’s weaknesses.

North Carolina is already on its third starting quarterback this season, with Jacolby Criswell expected to start again this weekend after the team lost starter Max Johnson to injury in the opener. Going from Sam Howell to Drake Maye has left this program spoiled with good quarterback play in recent years, and there does feel like a bit of a drop-off this season without them.

Not only with the quarterback play, but the passing game in general has regressed. The Tar Heels have had some very explosive wide receivers in recent years, but currently only one wideout has double digit catches this year, as JJ Jones has 16 receptions for 264 yards through five games. North Carolina features a talented tight end in Bryson Nesbit, but this does not feel like the same high-level passing attack from the past five years.

The area of concern for Pitt’s defense in this one will be more focused on the ground game. Omarion Hampton is the leading rusher in the ACC with 658 yards and six touchdowns. Hampton produced 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns a season ago, and is simply one of the top backs in the country.

Pitt’s effectiveness at stopping the run looks solid on paper through four games, as the Panthers are allowing only 110 yards per game on the ground. That ranking does feel a bit skewed however, with dominant performances over Kent State and Youngstown State tipping the scales, because both Cincinnati and West Virginia found running lanes against Pitt.

Defensively, the Tar Heels may not scare anyone on paper, especially only being two weeks removed from allowing 70 points. North Carolina may see a little boost tomorrow, however. Kaimon Rucker, the team’s best defensive player, has missed four straight games, but could return on Saturday. Rucker posted eight sacks and 15 TFLs last year, and is one of the better pass rushers in the conference, and looks to be a game time decision.

These two teams feel like they are trending in opposite directions. Pitt is favored to win the game according to Vegas, and right now, simply appears to be the better football team.

But history looms.

Pitt has already slayed one proverbial dragon this season, by going undefeated through non-conference play for the first time ever. It feels like notching the program’s first-ever win in Chapel Hill is the next obstacle in the way, and it’s a task very much within reach.

Another big stage for Holstein

There was a new first for Eli Holstein earlier this week. The Panthers’ star freshman woke up on Monday morning, and he was not named the ACC Rookie of the Week. It marked the first time that has happened all season, because Holstein swept the award after his first four games.

Pitt’s new quarterback is playing really well to start his career...to say the least. Not only has he been the top newcomer in the conference, Holstein flat out been one of the finest players in the entire league, and has Pitt’s offense sitting among the best in the nation.

The Panthers rank fifth nationally in scoring (48.5 ppg) and are sixth in total offense, netting 522.8 yards per game. Behind Holstein’s emergence, Pitt has had the best offensive resurgences in the country, after only averaging a paltry 20.2 points per game in 2023.

Holstein has orchestrated a good deal of the success, and he has posted the individual numbers to match it. The Pitt quarterback is completing 67% of his passes for 1,183 yards, 12 touchdowns, to just two interceptions on the year. He has already engineered two second half comebacks, and has the team undefeated through four games for the first time since 2000, four years before he was even born.

Holstein handled his first start with ease. He then delivered an improbable comeback in his first road game with a 28-27 win over Cincinnati. In the biggest game of his career to date, Holstein overcame a 10-point deficit and pushed two touchdown drives in the final four minutes to beat rival West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl.

Every game, every snap, every opponent, Eli Holstein has met the challenge brilliantly thus far in his young career, but now he has another barrier in his way. While Holstein has very little to do with Pitt’s past results against the Tar Heels, winning in Chapel Hill is something that has evaded this program for a long time. If Pitt finally snaps this streak, then Holstein will need to play a big role in making it happen.

North Carolina’s defense may not be as bad as it is being made out to be. The Tar Heels have allowed 21 points or less in four of their games, with the James Madison 70-point debacle being the outlier. North Carolina limited Duke to 97 yards in the first half last week. The Heels’ defense also posted five sacks in the season opening win over Minnesota. Plus the potential return of their star, Kaimon Rucker, can be a factor.

There are still holes, however. For as well as they played in the first half, Duke did score three touchdowns late in the game on this defense. James Madison posted over 600 yards, and those facts are hard to ignore.

The Pitt quarterback has not blinked in the face of pressure much at all this season. While North Carolina can pose some challenges, and playing on the road is always a factor, this looks to be a favorable situation for Holstein. If he can add snapping the Chapel Hill losing streak to his resume, it will only make his already brilliant freshman season that much more impressive.

Two No. 1 teams still

Another week has passed, and Pitt’s athletic department still features two No. 1 ranked teams in their respective sports. Pitt women’s volleyball has obliterated the competition thus far with a 12-0 record, and 36-set winning streak. Pitt’s men’s soccer is off to 9-1 start and is outscoring the opposition 28-6 through ten matches.

Dan Fisher’s squad started the season ranked No. 4 in the AVCA preseason poll, but quickly climbed to the top of the rankings. The Panthers do not seem too keen on giving up that top spot either. Pitt has been ranked No. 1 four weeks in a row, and there is very little doubt who the best team in the country is right now.

As it has been discussed for weeks now, Pitt has not lost a single set this season. It’s not like this 12-0 start has been cakewalk on paper, either. The Panthers have tallied wins over four teams currently ranked in this week’s AVCA poll: Penn State (No. 3), Oregon (11), Georgia Tech (19), and USC (21). In every big match, Pitt seemingly overwhelms the opponent, who happen to be teams that will absolutely make the NCAA Tournament.

Pitt’s most recent display of dominance was this weekend, with a sweep over then No. 13 Georgia Tech. The Panthers raced out to a 19-4 lead in the first set, neutralizing an energetic crowd in Atlanta almost immediately, before going on to finish off the win emphatically. Pitt has a pair of road matches this weekend with Boston College tonight, and Syracuse on Sunday morning with a very strong possibility of being 14-0 and maintaining that top spot on Monday.

The men’s soccer team has been very good under Jay Vidovich in recent years. The Panthers have played in five straight NCAA Tournaments, with a pair of College Cup (Final 4) appearances during that stretch.

It is usually not a surprise to see Pitt having success on the pitch, but the team is truly blowing all expectations out of the water. The Panthers started the season unranked, and were picked to finish ninth in the ACC. Now, Vidovich’s club is 9-1, owners of the nation’s longest winning streak at six, and has only allowed one goal over its last four matches.

The Panthers produced a big road win over the weekend, taking down No. 17 Virginia Tech 2-0 in Blacksburg. Pitt was back home this week for its only match, and the Panthers crushed Howard, 8-1. The eight goals was the highest for a Pitt team under Vidovich. Pitt leading scorer Luis Sahmkow notched his eighth goal of the season in the dominant victory of the Bison, a game in which the Panthers outshot the opponent, 34-4.

Pitt is done for the week, meaning the team will very likely maintain it’s top spot in the United Soccer Coaches Poll. The Panthers only have six regular season matches remaining, but the next three will be at home. The Panthers will be in for a tough one on Monday, when No. 6 Denver comes to Ambrose Urban Field for a non-conference showdown.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What are the vibes around Pitt basketball one month before the season?

Today is October 4th, and in exactly one month, the Pitt Panthers will begin the 2024-25 college basketball season. Pitt will be hosting Radford on November 4th at the Petersen Events Center, and given that we are one month out from the season opener, how is everyone feeling about the prospects of this Pitt team?

Now feels like a good time to provide a one-month heat check on where the expectations lie for Jeff Capel’s team. Pitt, of course, lost its top two scorers from last season’s team with the graduation of Blake Hinson, and star freshman Bub Carrington leaving early for the NBA.

Last year’s team started slow, but eventually produced 20 wins and a top five ACC finish for the second straight season. Perhaps somewhat controversially, the Panthers were left out of the NCAA Tournament, not typical of a 20-win, top 5 ACC team throughout the league’s history.

It was an unfortunate end, but Pitt played well enough down the stretch that it did not feel like a down year, and it somewhat sparked a productive offseason. Jeff Capel’s team did not see any serious attrition via transfers, saw the addition of several impact players both through high school recruiting and via the portal, and now entering this upcoming season, the vibes are pretty high around this program.

Yes, Pitt missed the NCAA Tournament last season, and even though some bad luck and flawed metrics played into that, the team was culpable in it own demise just the same. Pitt still has won 20 plus games in back-to-back seasons, and it feels like Capel has captured a bit of momentum, after a very rough start to his tenure.

Entering this upcoming campaign, Pitt has a pretty lethal backcourt, which will be the strength of the team. Sophomore point guard Jaland Lowe has been on everyone’s list to be a breakout star this year, and truthfully he broke out last year. Lowe’s insertion into the starting lineup really sparked Pitt’s turnaround last season, and at times, he was the team’s best player.

Reigning ACC Sixth Man of the Year, Ishmael Leggett, is going to join him. There is also a ton of excitement around freshman Brandin Cummings, who may be a bit better than his recruiting ranking suggested. Plus, veteran transfer Damian Dunn might be poised to return to the big-time scorer he was at Temple, before taking a secondary role at Houston last season.

This will also be the tallest team Jeff Capel has it his disposal, now in his seventh season guiding Pitt. The Panthers have five players standing 6’10” or taller. Cam Corhen, a Florida State transfer, looks like he will add a low-post scoring presence Pitt has been lacking in recent years, and Guillermo Diaz Grahm seems ready to take his 'next step' as a player.

Throw in glue guy Zack Austin, and 21-year old freshman Amstel Delalic from Bosnia, and you have perhaps one of the deepest Pitt teams has had in quite some time, and certainly the longest bench Capel has had the benefit of coaching.There is legitimate reason to believe Pitt can once again challenge for the top of the ACC again this season, and this team is capable of making the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years.

Those aren’t only reachable goals, but the expectation.

The ACC still has the big guys at the top with North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia, all expected to be very good, like usual. Pitt is 5-5 against those three programs over the past two seasons with wins in Chapel Hill, Charlottesville, and Durham during that stretch.

Capel’s teams won’t be at all intimated in those games, but as we saw, starting fast needs to be a bigger point of emphasis this year. The schedule in late November and early December looks to be a bit tougher than usual, but that is be design, so Pitt can try to stack some impressive early season wins to get out ahead of the NET rankings.

The goals of this team should not be just to win 20 games and finish in the top five of the ACC. This should be a team that should be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament when March rolls around, and not watching the Bracketology updates every morning until Selection Sunday.

We are still a month away from the start of college basketball, but if we are checking the vibes around Pitt as it stands today, there is definitely optimism about this team, but in reality, there should be pretty high expectations as well.

What impact can Rodney Hammond have on this team?

Rumors had been swirling in recent days that Pitt senior running back Rodney Hammond would be eligible to return before the end of the season. On Thursday, Pat Narduzzi confirmed that to be true, stating that the senior back has been practicing and remaining active with the team during his stint of ineligibility, and will be ready to play this Saturday against North Carolina.

Previously, Hammond had been ruled ineligible back on August 30th, just before the start of the season. In a statement, Pitt said, ‘Running back Rodney Hammond Jr. has been declared ineligible for 2024 season game competition. Hammond remains a member of the program and is permitted to practice with the team.’

There was no real reason given, and Narduzzi never seemed too interested in discussing the suspension further. It felt like that would be the end of it. Hammond was seen on the sidelines for home games, looking active and celebrating with the team, and now he can now put on a uniform and join them in action, in a rather stunning turn of events.

Hammond is a senior who has never redshirted to this point. Should he play in at least five games over Pitt’s remaining eight games, that will exhaust his eligibility, which looks to be where this thing is heading now. Hammond could preserve a redshirt and go play a full senior season elsewhere, but it seems like he is eager to join his teammates who have started the season 4-0.

The return of Hammond brings more stability to Pitt’s offense, and at least provides a nice insurance policy if nothing else. Desmond Reid has emerged as the team’s top back, and truthfully, that turn started to happen before the suspension was even announced. Reid is that explosive, and changes how this team can operate offensively, and it’s clear he needs to be on the field as much as possible.

But as we know, Reid is on the smaller side from a physical standpoint. It may be tough to keep him healthy for a full season. Pitt already erred on the side of caution by keeping him out of the Youngstown State game, and now bringing an experienced back like Hammond into the fold helps solidify the position in case injuries creep into the conversation.

Derrick Davis has just 44 yards on 16 carries with two touchdowns in his cameo as the No. 2 running back through the first four games. Daniel Carter has spent more of his time at Pitt as a fullback than a true tailback, but is coming off a career performance in the Youngstown State game, where he rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Both of those players seem like they can get the job done, but at the same time, Hammond is also a noticeable upgrade over both.

As a freshman, Hammond quickly carved out a role on Pitt’s ACC Championship team, contributing 504 rushing yards and seven total touchdowns as part of the best offense in school history. In 2022, Hammond served as support to Israel Abanikanda, but flourished with notable performances against West Virginia, Syracuse, and UCLA. While he was the team’s leading rusher in 2023 with 547 yards, that year felt like a disappointment for the Virginia native.

It is not often a college football team can pick up surprise help during the season, but that’s exactly what happened for Pitt on Thursday. Hammond has a chance at redemption now, and will have the benefit of joining one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Reid is still the team’s top back, but Hammond has always excelled in the sidekick role, and Pitt was in need of one of those.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt picks up first ever win in Chapel Hill

Streaks have to end eventually, right? I think we all figured at some point during a college football season, Pitt would go through non-conference play undefeated. I’m not sure if anyone truly expected it to be this year, but the Panthers got it done.

Now, there is another streak this Pitt team is tasked with ending.

Pitt has to win a game in Chapel Hill eventually, right? The Panthers, of course, are 0-7 all-time when playing North Carolina on the road. With respect to the Tar Heels, this is not a losing streak to Alabama or Ohio State for Pitt. This is a Carolina team that is generally on Pitt’s level, but there has been some type of untouchable barrier, with weird outcomes that have prevented Pitt from winning games at Kenan Memorial Stadium.

In Pitt’s four most recent losses in Chapel Hill: 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2022, the Panthers led all four games at halftime. In fact, the Panthers led going into the fourth quarter in 2022, before yielding three unanswered touchdowns in the final frame. Pitt has lost games in heartbreaking fashion, with weird calls, dumb mistakes, and just plain bad luck.

If Pitt was ever going to beat North Carolina on its home turf, then tomorrow seems like as good of a time as any. The Tar Heels are fading fast, it seems. There are legitimate questions about the future of Mack Brown. The team itself has plenty of holes, from a shaky defense, to an offense being led by the the third-string quarterback.

It is not going to be a cakewalk game by any stretch, but I think Pitt will find a way to get this done.