The 3-2-1 Column: Recruiting, Horton and positive thoughts
MORE HEADLINES - VIDEO: Alston, Brown and Newton on Virginia's haul | VIDEO: Pitt's three WPIAL DL recruits on the Panthers and more | Partridge hits the jackpot | VIDEO: Rankl on picking Pitt | Sanders on the safeties, recruiting and more | VIDEO: Yarnell talks Pitt, Whipple and more | Beatty breaks down the WRs and Virginia recruits | Signing Day: Narduzzi breaks down the class | 10 takeaways from Pat Narduzzi's Signing Day press conference
In this week’s 3-2-1 Column we’re thinking about some positive momentum, the importance of Ithiel Horton and the big storylines in Pitt’s recruiting class.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Positive momentum
It’s the holiday season, and even in this supremely…different…year, there’s still something about the holidays.
Maybe it’s the fact that we got a bunch of snow this week. Maybe it’s the fact that I’ve been getting my kids’ and wife’s gifts together and that’s creating a bit of holiday spirit. Maybe it’s the fact that I found a gluten-free winter ale (Auroch’s in Emsworth; they’re a gluten-free brewery and they’re great). Maybe it’s all of those things and maybe it’s none of those things, but it’s still the holidays.
So let’s have a bit of that spirit as we talk about Pitt sports. Let’s break tradition, just for a little bit, and talk about some positives.
Here’s one: Pitt just signed a recruiting class that ranks in the top 25 nationally. That’s a good thing, right? The class might not finish in the top 25 when it’s all said and done, but I don’t see them dropping out of the top 30, and regardless of the rankings, this is a really good class.
There’s the three local defensive linemen (arguably the best defensive line class in WPIAL history). There’s the quartet of commits from Virginia (maybe the best Pitt has ever done in that state). There’s Khalil Anderson, an underrated three-star cornerback from Atlanta who might be the best overall recruit in Pitt’s class (the Panthers held off late pushes from Penn State and Miami, among others, to keep him in the class). And there’s a bunch of depth at positions that need it (offensive line, tight end and defensive back come to mind).
Those are all good things.
There’s the football team itself. No, I don’t expect you to jump for joy about a 6-5 record or the blowout losses to Notre Dame and Clemson or the one-point losses to N.C. State and Boston College. But the team did finish the season 3-1; that ties the Panthers’ best four-game close to a season under Pat Narduzzi (they went 3-1 to finish the 2016 season).
No, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech aren’t great teams, but guess what? Boston College wasn’t a great team last year. Neither was Stanford in 2018. Or North Carolina in 2017. Pitt did what it had to do against FSU, VT and GT this year, and I think we can give them credit for that.
Remember, it’s the holiday season.
Oh, and on Tuesday night, Kenny Pickett announced he’s coming back. I don’t think there are many coaches that would be sad about having a fourth-year starter lining up at quarterback. That seems to erase one of the biggest question marks facing Pitt in 2021.
On the hoops side, Pitt is 5-1 overall and 1-0 in the ACC. Justin Champagnie made history last week and the Panthers overcame foul trouble and turnovers to open conference play with a win at Miami. Sure, the Hurricanes are depleted, but Pitt created some issues for itself - and then overcame those issues to get the victory.
The team isn’t perfect, but there are some pieces coming together that sure do look enticing - like they might just mess around and spark some optimism, and maybe even deliver on it.
It’s the holidays, folks. And right now, I think there are enough positive things happening in Pitt sports that maybe can sustain everyone, just for a few days.
When a plan comes together
There were a lot of things said during Pitt’s Signing Day press conferences on Wednesday. Pat Narduzzi spoke for 48 minutes. Chris Beatty and Cory Sanders took the podium for about 6 or 7 minutes each. And Charlie Partridge capped it off with a 13-minute media session.
It all added up to about an hour and a half of a Zoom call, and like I said: that’s a lot of things being said. This is what typically happens on Signing Day, when these coaches are discussing 21 recruits in addition to a variety of other topics (some recruiting-related and some not).
But out of all of that, out of all of those words, one quote really stood out to me. It came from Partridge when he was talking about Elliot Donald, Nahki Johnson and Dorien Ford - Pitt’s big three local defensive line signings, otherwise known as the best WPIAL defensive line class in a long time (maybe ever).
“From the beginning of the 2021 recruiting board, it was kind of understood that all decisions regarding D-linemen that we were going to recruit really worked through those three local players, to be honest with you, and they were all compared to those three,” Partridge said.
I think that’s pretty notable. It’s not that it addresses some large, broad subject about the class or speaks to the state of the program or anything else. Rather, it kind of made me think of Hannibal from The A-Team.
You know what I’m going to quote, right?
There’s something to be said for putting a plan together and executing it. As Partridge said, the Pitt staff set out with a very specific goal in the 2021 class, and it centered on landing the three local defensive line prospects.
The coaches had a plan and they executed it with a group effort, ranging from Partridge as the position coach to Cory Sanders as the area coach to the recruiting staff and, of course, the head coach. I don’t think this is an unimportant point. Getting those three defensive linemen was crucial to this class in a lot of ways.
Like Partridge said, those three guys were the top priorities on the defensive line, and everything involved in Pitt’s approach to that position group in the 2021 class centered on them. There were other defensive line options on the board, but it was always about Donald, Johnson and Ford.
The geography is pretty important, too. We all know about Pitt’s struggles in the WPIAL in the past. We’ve seen classes where a lot of the top local talent leaves town. We’ve all talked about it plenty of times. So when there’s a year like this, where the WPIAL has three of the top four defensive linemen in the state, it can either be another year where Pitt strikes out locally, or it can be a year where the Panthers make a statement.
They made a statement.
No, Pitt didn’t get everyone in the WPIAL. Derrick Davis is going to LSU. Khalil Dinkins is going to Penn State. Donovan McMillon is going to Florida. But that’s always the case: the Panthers have never gotten everyone in the WPIAL, even in the heyday of Dave Wannstedt and his fence around western Pennsylvania.
Davis, Dinkins and McMillon got away, but Donald, Ford and Johnson (and Central Valley safety Stephon Hall) didn’t. They’re staying home.
That was Pitt’s plan, on the defensive line and in the 2021 class, and to the coaches’ credit, they executed.
Horton’s impact
I don’t want to say that one guy can make all the difference but…
I’m thinking Ithiel Horton just might make all the difference.
Look, I understand recency bias. I understand that Horton got hot in the second half at Miami on Wednesday night and poured in four three-pointers to score a season-high 18 points, but that came after he went 0-for-8 from three in the previous two games.
I understand that in the Northern Illinois and Miami wins, Horton shot 9-of-16 from beyond the arc; in the other four games, he hit 2-of-14. I understand that Horton has scored 33 points in those two wins and 12 in the other four games.
I understand that in the four games that weren’t Northern Illinois or Miami he took 21 shots and made just five.
I understand that four games is more than two. I understand that Horton has been not good more than he has been good. So I don’t want to overstate what he did on Wednesday night. But here’s the thing:
If Horton can build from that game, if he can carry some momentum and - perhaps more importantly - some confidence over from that game, if he can use that performance as a springboard, then the whole dynamic of this team changes dramatically.
Is that hyperbole? A bit. But not much. In fact, I would say that Horton finding his groove is arguably the most crucial development that could come for this team, and it’s the development that would have the biggest and most positive impact.
Look, last year’s team had more than a few issues. We all know that. But three-point shooting was pretty high on that list. Pitt was the worst three-point team in the ACC. That’s not hyperbole: no one else in the conference shot less than 30% from beyond the arc (Pitt shot 29%), and only two teams made fewer three-pointers than Pitt (but those teams did it on fewer attempts).
And we all know that the poor three-point shooting made defending Pitt a rather easy call: just play zone. The zone cut off the Panthers’ bread and butter - driving to the hoop - and with no outside shooting threat, there was no incentive for opponents to come out of the zone. I’m pretty sure we talked about that a lot.
But if Horton can present a consistent threat, then that option is a lot less attractive for Pitt’s opponents. Throw in the work that Justin Champagnie and Au’Diese Toney can do in the mid-range, and you have a team that can legitimately bust a zone on a regular basis.
That’s a game-changer.
Pitt is a little less crafty off the dribble this year than it was last year after losing Trey McGowens, but Xavier Johnson can still make things happen in that area and Nike Sibande is a boost there as well (Femi Odukale has some moves, too). The front court will continue to be something of a weakness until John Hugley grows into his own, but if Johnson takes care the ball and distributes it well and Champagnie and Toney continue to excel in their very particular skill sets, then getting a consistent three-point threat from Horton really can change the dynamics of this team and its offensive attack.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Will this geography trend continue?
I’m not sure if you’ve heard this, but 2020 has been pretty unique.
Weird, right?
We all know that, of course. We get reminded of it every day. But there were more reminders on Signing Day as we took another long look at Pitt’s recruiting class, because in addition to all the other observations we can make about the class, one thing that stands out is geography.
Some familiar places weren’t very well-represented.
The most prominent absence from Pitt’s commitment list was Florida. It wasn’t a total absence; the Panthers did sign Noah Biglow from the Tampa area, but that was it (tight end Jake Renda played his senior year at IMG Academy in Bradenton, but he’s from New Jersey, so he kind of doesn’t count). After averaging five Sunshine State recruits in each of Pat Narduzzi’s first five full recruiting classes, only signing one was a considerable drop-off.
So why did the Pitt coaches de-emphasize Florida this year? In two words, they didn’t.
According to the Rivals.com database, Pitt offered 99 prospects from the state of Florida in the 2021 recruiting class. Now, not all 99 of those guys could have committed, but a significant portion of them could have. The problem is, none of them - regardless of their actual offer status - could take an official visit to Pitt.
You can thank 2020 for that, what with its’ “global pandemic” and its “NCAA recruiting dead period.” The pandemic led the NCAA to institute an emergency dead period in March, and that dead period has been extended through to next spring.
That means no official visits for any recruits. If you’re Elliot Donald or Nahki Johnson or Dorien Ford, that’s no big deal. Even if you’re Gavin Bartholomew or Terrence Rankl, that’s no big deal. Guys who live that close can easily make a trip to see the campus and look at Pitt - even without the coaches guiding them on a tour.
But if you’re a kid in Florida, making a trip to Pittsburgh seems a bit more daunting. It’s not impossible, but it’s daunting, and it’s going to require a lot more initiative than it would take to go on an official visit, where travel and lodging are covered by the school.
So if you look at last year’s class, Pitt’s four recruits from Florida all committed after visiting (three were on official visits). In the 2019 class, Pitt signed six recruits from Florida, and they all committed after visiting. Without official visits, it’s a lot tougher to land kids from further away.
Fortunately for Pitt, this was a good year in western Pennsylvania and the Panthers had one of their best years recruiting the state in a long time. Pitt signed six recruits from Pennsylvania in the class of 2021; that’s more than the last two classes combined.
Throw in Chris Beatty’s work in Virginia (and the fact that Pitt’s four Virginia recruits all visited in the past) and you’ve got some very clear workarounds on the challenges facing the Panthers’ traditional efforts in Florida.
Pitt hasn’t stopped recruiting Florida. But when 2020 decided to get a little nuts, the coaches rolled with it and built their class elsewhere.
Was depth the goal?
When you look at recruiting classes, it’s always important to consider the goals. I mentioned Elliot Donald, Dorien Ford and Nahki Johnson being priorities; the goal was to build the 2021 defensive line class around those three guys, and that’s what the coaches did.
On the offensive side of the ball, I think one of the primary goals was to build some depth at a few positions that really needed it. Just look at the numbers:
- Four offensive linemen
- Two tight ends
- Two running backs
The Panthers also signed a quarterback and two receivers, but those are more “traditional” hauls for those positions. Offensive line, tight end and running back, though, all needed a boost or numbers, and they got it.
You can start with the offensive line, where Pitt’s six commitments turned into four signings after the coaches decided to trim the list for a variety of reasons, but while six would have been a huge class, four is still pretty big - especially in comparison to the last few years.
In 2020, Pitt signed two offensive linemen. In 2019, the Panthers signed two (plus Jason Collier, who signed as a tight end but eventually moved to the line). And in 2018, the total was two for high school line prospects.
2017 was a big offensive line class for Pitt with Carter Warren, Gabe Houy, Carson Van Lynn, Owen Drexel and Jerry Drake. But signing just six high school linemen over the next three years created some depth issues; now those issues seem to have been addressed with the 2021 class.
Running back is another spot that needed a boost. You don’t need to sign multiple running backs every year and Pitt has actually signed two a few times in recent years (2017 and 2019). But the six running backs signed over the last four classes (minus Mychale Salahuddin from the 2018 class, who transferred) combined to average 85.7 rushing yards per game in the first 10 games of the season this year before Vincent Davis’ monster performance at Georgia Tech.
So more was needed, and the Panthers got a thunder-and-lightning duo in Malik Newton and Rodney Hammond.
Finally, you have the tight ends - a position that has been a source of consternation since 2016.
Fun fact: in 2016, Scott Orndoff was Pitt’s second-leading receiver with 35 catches for 579 yards and five touchdowns. In the last four seasons, the Panthers’ tight ends - all of them - have caught 90 passes for 778 yards and just three touchdowns (not counting Nathan Bossory catching a touchdown as the long-snapper on a trick play at Virginia Tech in 2017).
That’s an average of 22.5 catches and 194.5 yards per season. And the touchdowns - all three of them - speak for themselves.
We all know the tight ends are an issue. You don’t need numbers to figure that out. But the Pitt coaches felt like they needed numbers to address the problem, and that’s what they got this year with Gavin Bartholomew and Jake Renda.
It’s funny: despite the obvious problems at tight end, Pitt certainly hasn’t over-recruited the position in recent years. The Panthers signed three tight ends in 2017 (Grant Carrigan, Charles Reeves and Tyler Sear). Since then, Pitt signed Kaymar Mimes (who has moved between tight end and defensive end) in the 2018 class; Jason Collier (who has moved to the offensive line) and Kyi Wright in the 2019 class; and junior college transfer Daniel Moraga in the 2020 class.
Pitt has gone after transfers to fill in the holes, but the deficiency in recruiting high school tight ends has been glaring.
So I think offensive depth was a big theme for this 2021 class, and with 10 offensive linemen/tight ends/running backs, the coaches addressed it.
ONE PREDICTION
Top recruits in the class
This is one part prediction and several parts continuing thoughts on the 2021 recruiting class. So here are a few more items.
My top three recruits in Pitt’s class:
I think Anderson really has a chance to be special. His film is outstanding, from his closing speed to his nose for the ball - he just looks like an elite talent at cornerback, and I think he’s going to be a key contributor to the defense sooner rather than later. If he was enrolling early, I might go so far as to pencil him in as a starter; since he isn’t enrolling in January, I’ll just settle for a lead reserve role.
At this point, he looks like the closest thing Pitt’s 2021 class has to Jordan Addison.
Johnson has been a centerpiece fixture in this class for a long time. He was the first prospect to commit to the Panthers - he committed the summer before his junior year, getting the jump on not just his class but more than half of the 2020 class as well.
But Johnson’s not just important for being the first commit. He’s important because he’s really, really good. He’s a 6’3” 240-pound pass-rusher who explodes off the edge with enough burst that bigger, slower offensive tackles are going to struggle to block him. He’s very physical and loves to hit - you can see that in his film - and overall, he’s just a great fit for Pitt’s defense. It’s not hard to see why Charlie Partridge is excited to have him.
I think Newton has the potential to be really productive in college. He’s a big back but he’s more explosive than some of the big backs Pitt has had in recent years. Newton was ultra-productive in high school - he rushed for 2,000 yards as a junior - and he would have broken records if he could have played his senior season.
Running back is a position where freshmen can often contribute, and while there are a lot of bodies in Pitt’s running back room, I don’t think any of them have claimed the job heading into 2021. Newton should have a real shot at getting on the field.