Staff picks: Pitt takes on Duke in the ACC Tournament
The Pitt Panthers secured an 89-81 win over Georgia Tech on Wednesday in the second round of the ACC Tournament. The victory pushed the Panthers into the quarterfinal round, where they will take on fourth seeded Duke today at 2:30 from the Greensboro Coliseum.
The Panthers looked like they were ready to cruise to easy victory on Wednesday, but Georgia Tech made them earn it in the second half. Pitt led by 13 at halftime, but Georgia Tech managed to grab a lead in the second half at one point and had it down to a two possession game with under :30 seconds remaining.
The Panthers fought through it, however, to pick up their 22nd win of the season. At this point, it’s still unknown where Pitt stands in terms of the NCAA Tournament, but a win over the Yellow Jackets should have Pitt feeling better. The one way to leave no doubt is with a win over Duke today.
Duke has been on a strong run of late, with six straight victories heading into the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils are starting to look like the team that was picked as a top-10 team to start the year. Freshman center Kyle Filipowski has been sensational of late and posted a 22-point, 13-rebound game against North Carolina last time out for the Blue Devils.
Duke also owns the one head-to-head matchup, by virtue of a 77-69 win over Pitt back on January 11th. The Panthers led 43-32 at halftime in that game in Durham, but were outmuscled in the second half. Pitt allowed Filipowski to go for 28 points and 15 rebounds, and Duke as a team collected 24 offensive boards.
In order for Pitt to pull an upset on Thursday, they will need to do a much better job on the glass. Pitt will also be facing a likely Duke partisan crowd in Greensboro as well, though the Panthers do have seven road victories on the year and are comfortable in these scenarios.
Can Pitt push its way into the semifinals? The Panther-Lair.com staff makes their picks.
Stephen Gertz (23-9): If this was the same Pittsburgh Panthers team that played at Cameron Indoor Stadium in mid-January, I might be inclined to pick them here. But that just is not the case. Despite the high spirits and winning mentality, this team is physically worn down and that is apparent on the defensive end. Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils have won six straight games with Kyle Filipowski still very much a matchup problem and a healthy Jeremy Roach this time around. Duke also defends the three-point line very well, which is the one standpoint attribute of this Panthers team on offense. The Blue Devils are also one of the teams that Jamarius Burton is going to have a hard time playing bully ball with. Pitt is also hemorrhaging offensive rebounds to opposing teams and Duke is the seventh best team in the country at crashing the offensive glass. They do not shoot the three ball well, which means I think the Panthers can stay in it. But I have a hard time picking them on back-to-back days given their shortcomings on the boards and on defense against a Blue Devils team that will be fresh and more or less playing a home game.
Prediction: Duke 75, Pitt 70
Houston Wilson (22-10): Pitt squeaked by Georgia Tech yesterday to advance to face Duke today. This is a Duke team that is very different from the previous matchup earlier this year as they are probably the hottest team in the league right now. I spoke to Greg Elliot about todays game and he zeroed in on how the game is going to come down to rebounding. I think this will be a back and forth game but ultimately I am going with the Blue Devils. The crowd will become a factor as the Duke fans will certainly out number the Pitt fans.
Duke 81, Pitt 74
Matt Steinbrink (18-14): The stage is set for the Panthers to make another statement and add to their resume. Playing Duke in the ACC Tournament is a unique challenge and always an uphill battle. Beating them in Greensboro is extremely tough and the Blue Devils are playing well right now. One could argue that this could be the toughest game of the entire event for Pitt if they were to pull the upset and advance to Saturday. Duke is not a great outside shooting team and Pitt has the edge there, but that is about their only advantage. The Panthers have not been able to clear the glass at all and Duke has size and athleticism in waves. If Pitt makes threes and shoots a decent percentage, they can overcome it win the game. If they don’t, it’s going to be very tough. Jamarius Burton continues to grind through sore knees and now he is looking at potentially a 40 minute game with less than 24 hours of rest. The Panthers need a big game from him and a good shooting night to advance. That is what worries me and I think Pitt calls just short.
Prediction: Duke 76, Pitt 70
Jim Hammett (23-9): In the postseason, every game can play out a little differently. Something that works one day, might not be clicking the next. But in order for Pitt to get another win in Greensboro, they need everything working in their favor. On Wednesday, all five starters scored in double figures, but it was Jamarius Burton that did most of the damage with 21 points and 8 assists. If Pitt is going to ‘go on a run’ then they need Burton to be the one leading it. Duke is a difficult matchup just because of the sheer talent they possess as a team. There are four and five-star recruits crawling all over the roster, and they seem to be hitting their stride as a group. This will be a tough challenge for the type of team Duke is, the talent that they have, and the environment of this game. Pitt will be up against it, but something tells me they aren’t done in Greensboro. The Panthers don’t need to be great on the boards today, but they need to be better than they were the first meeting against Duke. I think they will be, and Burton makes enough tough shots to give Pitt a close, narrow victory.
Prediction: Pitt 76, Duke 72
Chris Peak (22-10): Pitt is a good offensive team. I don’t think there’s any question about that, and they should be able to score against Duke (provided they solved some of the defensive adjustments the Blue Devils made in the second half of these two teams’ first meeting). The problem, though, is the rebounding. The Panthers haven’t been great on the glass all season, and the Duke game was one of their worst, giving up 24 offensive rebounds while grabbing 28 total themselves. The deficiency on the boards cost Pitt the Miami game last Saturday - the Hurricanes scored 25 second-chance points - and even Georgia Tech had success on the glass, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds against the Panthers on Wednesday. Will Pitt have better success getting defensive rebounds against Duke today? I’m guessing no. And will they play well enough on defense to give themselves a chance? I’m also guessing no. They should be able to score more than the 69 points they put up in Durham, especially if Greg Elliott stays hot from the Georgia Tech game. I just don’t think it will be enough, though, and I think the Panthers will see their run in the ACC Tournament end today.
Prediction: Duke 85, Pitt 80