Staff Picks: Pitt battles Iowa State
The Pitt Panthers had a flair for the dramatic all season long and of course that continued on Tuesday night in Dayton. Pitt escaped with a 60-59 win over Mississippi State in the First Four, the team's seventh win by three points or less on the season. The victory sent the Panthers to Greensboro for today's first round game in the NCAA Tournament against sixth-seeded Iowa State.
Iowa State enters this game with a 19-13 overall record. The Cyclones opened the year hot with a 13-2 start out of the games, but finished 6-11 down the stretch. Iowa State did manage to beat Baylor twice this month, but otherwise they own a 2-7 mark since the beginning of February.
Iowa State is coached by TJ Otzelberger, who is in his second year with the program. He guided Iowa State to the NCAA Tournament last season, and had previous stops at South Dakota State and UNLV. The Cyclones are led by two talented senior guards: Jaren Holmes and Gabe Kalscheur. Holmes is going to score more in the lane, while Kalscheur is certainly more of a threat from the outside.
Overall, Iowa State is not a very gifted offensive team. They were near the bottom of the Big 12 in scoring, three-point field goals, and even rebounding. What they do excel at is defense, as they only surrender 62.8 points per game, which topped the Big 12. Iowa State can present similar challenges that Pitt saw on Tuesday against Mississippi State, but they are probably a better team top to bottom.
Can Pitt continue to make a push in the Big Dance? The Panther-Lair.com staff previews today's game.
Stephen Gertz (25-9): The status of Federiko Federiko is once again a factor. But after watching so many teams start slow as nerves in the environment are unlike anything else, the Pittsburgh Panthers already have those jitters out of their system. On the other side, the Iowa State Cyclones will be relying heavily on their upperclassmen to steady the ship. This game could follow a similar script to Tuesday with the exception that Iowa State isn’t a dreadful shooting team. To me, this comes down to turnovers. If Pitt can take care of the ball again, they have a legit chance to keep dancing. They also need to make the most of their free throw opportunities - slowly becoming an issue - as the Cyclones aggressive style that forces turnovers also leads to fouls. Jamarius Burton is going to need to be on the floor for 35+ minutes this time around. It’s important that the Panthers have two players that can help dictate pace as ISU likes to play slow. Styles make fights and so long as Pitt can cash in pushing in transition while being smart in the half court, I think they make it to Sunday.
Prediction: Pitt 72, Iowa State 67
Houston Wilson (24-10): When the official bracket came out, I immediately said this is a favorable draw for Pitt to make a run. They have great momentum coming into todays game with Iowa State after winning on Tuesday night and I expect that to help Pitt get off to a good start today. Another thing that I expect to help Pitt is their age. These are the type of moments where you want older players and we know Pitt has that. If Pitt can get Federiko back today that will boost Pitt even more but even if he does not play, I like Pitt’s chances to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Pitt 72, Iowa State 68
Matt Steinbrink (20-14): It is quite obvious how similar Iowa State is to Pitt’s last opponent on Tuesday night. The Cyclones are basically the same kind of team but better at shooting the three and without the singular dominant center. They are one of the most experienced teams in the country and play almost exclusively seniors across their entire rotation. Pitt needs to exploit their experience edge at point guard and shoot the three well. I expect another game in the 60’s that could go either way and will be mostly a half court contest. Iowa State has so many big bodies to rotate inside and the Panthers don’t rebound well when Federiko is on the floor. If they are without him again, it may catch up to them. When you look at the stats of the Mississippi State win for Pitt, it’s incredible that they won the game. They have to be sharper and more together on the defensive end today if they want to keep playing. I think it will be very close and competitive with a lot of lead changes, but the size and experience of the Cyclones is just too much to overcome for a Pitt team that is basically down four players from their original top 8 this season.
Prediction: Iowa State 68, Pitt 63
Jim Hammett (24-10): I think Pitt got a pretty good draw here in round one of the NCAA Tournament. That's not a knock on Iowa State as a team, but when looking at the individual matchups on the floor, this feels like an 8 vs. 9 game, not a 6 vs. 11. They are pretty similar from a talent standpoint and stylistically, this is a team Pitt can play with or beat. As we saw last week against Duke, there are certain teams and players that can give Pitt trouble, and I'm not seeing that type of standout player for the Cyclones. Iowa State is, however, a tough, physical team that survived and fought through a difficult conference schedule this year. They have some good, experienced guards and as a team they will play great defense. They do not have a commanding post presence inside and they aren't a particularly great offensive team. Does that make an easy game? Of course not. This is the NCAA Tournament and the game will be decided in crunch time, much like it was on Tuesday night. I just like Pitt's chances here. Iowa State did play in a good conference, but we're talking about a team that is 3-7 over its last ten games. Pitt plays pretty well in tight games and they have an x-factor like Blake Hinson. I think the Panthers live to fight at least one more day.
Prediction: Pitt 72, Iowa State 64
Chris Peak (24-10): Another NCAA Tournament game, another tough matchup against a good defensive team. On Tuesday, Pitt got the better of Mississippi State; today, the Panthers face Iowa State, the best defensive team in the best conference in the country and one of the top 10 defenses nationally. That’s not an easy challenge, but I’m betting on Pitt here. This isn’t the first good defense the Panthers have faced this season. Northwestern, VCU, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Mississippi State - these teams were all among the best defenses in the country, and while Pitt didn’t win all of those games, the Panthers won most of them. Of course, they lost rather spectacularly to Duke, but the Blue Devils complemented their great defense with really good offense. Iowa State isn’t as good offensively as Duke; the Cyclones are more along the lines of Mississippi State, and Pitt was able to emerge victorious on Tuesday. If the Panthers limit turnovers, make their three’s and keep Jamarius Burton on the court, I think they get it done again and move on to Sunday.
Prediction: Pitt 65, Iowa State 62