Staff picks: Pitt and Xavier meet in round two of the NCAA Tournament
The Pitt Panthers throttled Iowa State for a first round upset on Friday by a score of 59-41. The 11th seeded Panthers now find themselves in the second round of the NCAA Tournament and will be looking to make it to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009. Standing in their way is Xavier, the No. 3 team in the Midwest region.
The Musketeers enter this game with a 26-9 record. They finished in second place in the Big East this season and survived a nail biter in round one with a narrow 72-67 win over Kennesaw State. Xavier is coached by Sean Miller, who has made it to the Sweet 16 seven times in his career between his first stint with the Musketeers and his run at Arizona. Of course Miller is a former Pitt star as well.
Xavier has a veteran backcourt led by Souley Boum, who leads the team at 16.5 points per game. The Musketeers also have a big presence inside with Jack Nunge. The 7'0" senior averages 14 points and 7.9 rebounds per game.
Pitt has won two NCAA Tournament games in the same year for the first time since 2009 and the Panthers need an additional victory to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since that same year. The Panthers have been beating the odds all year long after being picked to finish 14th in the ACC before nearly winning the league title. Pitt has continued to defy the expectations with a pair of NCAA Tournament victories as an 11 seed.
Can Pitt's March run continue? The Panther-Lair.com staff gives their picks.
Stephen Gertz (26-9): The Xavier Musketeers present a far different challenge than the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Iowa State Cyclones. They are a very efficient offense but are rather poor at defending the three-point line and do not force as many turnovers as the Pittsburgh Panthers aforementioned opponents. Xavier is going to push the pace and hunt triples with regularity, but they are also very efficient inside the arc as well. Senior forward Jack Nunge profiles very closely to the kind of big that Pitt tends to struggle against - a big man that can step out and shoot from beyond the arc. But he is also a two-way player that will crash the glass and challenge the Panthers at the rim. As a team, I expect the Musketeers to shoot better than 2-12 on three-pointers today. Granted, I do not think that Jamarius Burton, Greg Elliott, and Blake Hinson are going to make just one field goal each either. Pitt is going to have to be much more consistent on both ends of the floor, limit turnovers, and rebound better. This could come down to which teams stay out of foul trouble, as both teams are going to only go seven or eight deep at the most. I can see this going either way, but outside of losing to Marquette in the Big East Conference Tournament, Xavier has been a much more consistent team of late.
Prediction: Xavier 79, Pitt 72
Houston Wilson (25-10): Pitt is one win away from the sweet sixteen and if you would have asked any of the Panther-Lair.com staff members that before the season started, we would have probably just laughed but believe it or not, here we are. Xavier has been one of the more consistent teams in the country this year as Sean Miller did a great job in year 1 of his second stint on the Xavier sidelines. Xavier had a battle against Kennesaw State in the first round but Jerome Hunter led Xavier to a comeback win. This Pitt team seems really loose right now and they currently have a lot of momentum. I am already picturing CBS putting a graphic up of Sean Miller mentioning how he went to Pitt after Pitt upsets Xavier tomorrow. I simply just can’t pick against Pitt right now. Pitt moves on to the Sweet Sixteen.
Prediction: Pitt 75, Xavier 70
Matt Steinbrink (20-15): This Xavier team will provide a much different look for the Panthers. After two difficult matchups against strong defensive teams, they will get a bit of a break there today. The bad news is that Xavier is a much better offensive team. Any breakdown on defense will result in points in this one. There is no question that Pitt is capable of winning this game, but they will need to play really well. They can’t afford to have just Hinson, or just Burton. It is going to take a typical Pitt effort where the ball is moving and multiple players are making threes again. There is nothing to lose so the staff needs to try to have the team loose. This Pitt team has been through a lot and the depth has disappeared. I think it finally catches up to them today.
Prediction: Xavier 76, Pitt 71
Jim Hammett (25-10): If the 2023 NCAA Tournament has taught us anything over the first three days, it's that anything is on the table, meaning Pitt, an 11-seed, can certainly knock of Xavier today. The Musketeers are very likely the best team Pitt has seen all season. They have four players heading into today's game who all average double figures. There is not one guy to key on and they can beat you in multiple ways. Nunge is going to be a problem inside for this Pitt team because he is a skilled big man who can score and crash the glass. Having said all that, I'll agree with what Jamarius Burton said on Saturday. "I mean, for us we feel like we haven't even played our best basketball yet," the Pitt guard said. He's right, Pitt has won both games so far in some dog fight defensive battles, which isn't Pitt's style at all. The Panthers like to shoot the three and I think they find their stroke today and continue this run one extra weekend.
Prediction: PItt 77, Xavier 73
Chris Peak (25-10): After back-to-back rock fights, today figures to present a different challenge for Pitt. Rather than having to grind it out against a tough defensive team, the Panthers are set to take on one of the best offenses in the country in the noon game against Xavier. I’m guessing Pitt’s players will be glad to see a team that’s not quite as suffocating on defense as Mississippi State and Iowa State were, but the Musketeers present a new obstacle: putting up points. The Panthers’ defense was better in the first two NCAA Tournament games, but it won’t be as easy to stop or slow down Xavier, which means Pitt is going to have to find its offense for the first time in March. I think they’ll be able to do it. The Musketeers were at the bottom of the Big East in three-point defense, and I’m looking for the Panthers to regain their footing from beyond the arc. This isn’t going to be an easy one, and I expect to see both teams put up points. But I’m going with a barrage of three’s from Blake Hinson and Greg Elliott while Jamarius Burton, Nelly Cummings and Nike Sibande generate points in a variety of ways. I picked Xavier over Pitt in my bracket, but after watching the first two games, I’m taking the Panthers today.Prediction: Pitt 79, Xavier 77