Staff picks: Can Pitt sweep North Carolina?
The Pitt Panthers are coming off of an emotional comeback win over Miami on Saturday, and they have little down time before another big showdown. Pitt heads to Chapel Hill tonight to take on North Carolina in a key ACC battle set for a 7:00 p.m. tip.
The Panthers knocked off the Tar Heels 76-75 back on December 30th behind 31 points from Jamarius Burton. Since that defeat, North Carolina has won six of seven and they are starting more to resemble the team that was picked to win the ACC in the preseason.
Pitt is on a bit off a hot streak as well, as the team has won four of its last five games, including that big win over the Hurricanes on Saturday. Pitt trailed by 8 points with a little over two minutes remaining in the game, but stormed back and won the game thanks to an 11-0 run.
This is a key game for both NCAA Tournament and ACC positioning. Can Pitt beat North Carolina for a third straight time? The Panther-Lair.com staff gives their picks.
Stephen Gertz (15-7): Can the Pittsburgh Panthers afford to lose more than two of their next nine games to close out their regular season ACC schedule? I am not sure, but "thankfully" for Pitt I think this is one of the two they can drop; the one at Virginia Tech makes me nervous as a possible third. Obviously, the Panthers are coming off really solid home wins against Wake Forest and Miami. I just have my doubts of how well that momentum is going to travel today. The North Carolina Tar Heels get to the free throw line a lot. That does not bode well for a Pitt team that is very thin in the frontcourt. They managed to beat North Carolina by two points at home at the end of December, 76-74, but they needed a performance for the ages by Jamarius Burton - 31 point on 14/17 shooting - to do it. However, Armando Bacot got whatever he wanted, and Federiko Federiko avoided major foul issues in that one. I can see Blake Hinson and Greg Elliott being more efficient tonight, but I could say the same thing about RJ Davis and Caleb Love. The former was in foul trouble back in December but still managed 16 points. I can see the Panthers being within a possession or two by the end, but they seem to be the team with a smaller margin for error.
Prediction: North Carolina 76, Pitt 71
Houston Wilson (15-7): February is here and we are inching closer to Selection Sunday. If the season ended today, I am pretty certain Pitt would be in the big dance but they are a lot of opportunities left to keep on building that tournament résumé. Tonight is one of those opportunities. It is not going to be easy in Chapel Hill. UNC has been on a nice roll lately and I think still a dangerous threat to win the league. I do think this is the type of game gets up for and can keep it close but it’s hard to go against UNC at home. I think UNC wins.
Prediction: North Carolina, 83, Pitt 77
Matt Steinbrink (10-12): Pitt was able to win the last one, but it was extremely close. One could argue that it should not have gotten close and that the Panthers didn't shoot it well from three. That is one way to look at it, and an encouraging sign for the Panthers who are in quite the rhythm at the moment. However, North Carolina didn't shoot the three well either and Caleb Love was extremely quiet. Both teams are playing well and have been hot, with North Carolina coming off of a long layoff. Pitt has played more recently and played well, so hard to say where the advantage lies in that aspect. This Carolina team can dominate the glass at times, and get to the free throw line a lot. That is a tough style to match for this Pitt team. With that being said, this Pitt team has just found a way. Can they surprise and sweep the series to obtain another high level win? They are certainly capable, but I think Love plays better this time and playing at home provides just enough of an edge. It is difficult to sweep conference teams, especially one as talented as North Carolina.
Prediction: North Carolina 79, Pitt 75
Jim Hammett (14-8): I don't know if it is the Duke in him, but Jeff Capel usually has his teams ready to play against North Carolina. Pitt is 4-2 against the Tar Heels under Capel, including the last two meetings. Looking back to that win on December 30th, Pitt really played a solid team game, but really it was Jamarius Burton that made it all work as he was in complete takeover mode. I'm guessing Hubert Davis will be very mindful of him and will make sure his team does not allow him to go off for 31 points again tonight. The problem in that is that Blake Hinson has the hot hand right now for this Pitt team. For the first time in a while, Pitt has two legitimate players that can take over a game. North Carolina, however, has three of those type of players. I still don't think Pitt really has an answer for Armando Bacot and he could dominate yet again after posting 22 and 13 in the first meeting. I think this will be another one or two possession game. Pitt is comfortable playing in tight games and they have been pretty good on the road this season. I think they find a way.
Prediction: Pitt 77, North Carolina 74
Chris Peak (15-7): I really struggled with this one. Yes, Pitt beat Carolina at the end of December. But also yes, this game tonight is going to be played in Chapel Hill. Yes, Pitt has some players who are capable of willing the team to win in almost any situation. But also yes, UNC has a guy in Armando Bacot who is almost guaranteed to post a double-double. Pitt can beat North Carolina; of that, there is no doubt. The question, however, is whether Pitt will beat North Carolina; of that, there is a lot of uncertainty. My gut says to pick the Tar Heels, primarily because of Bacot and the location of the game. But I think the Panthers will follow Saturday’s statement win over Miami at home with an even bigger statement win - at least for perception - over North Carolina on the road. I don’t think Jamarius Burton will score 30-plus, but I also don’t think he’ll need to. I think Blake Hinson and Greg Elliott will provide plenty of pop from outside and I think Nelly Cummings will carry some of his good mojo from the second half of the Miami game into this one. Mostly, I think this team’s resilience and togetherness will help the players weather a few storms and emerge with a close one. With Burton leading the way, of course.
Prediction: Pitt 82, North Carolina 81