The Pitt Panthers are back in action tonight, as they are set to host North Carolina for a 9:00 pm tip at the Petersen Events Center with coverage on ESPN. On Saturday, Pitt snapped a four-game losing streak with a 77-73 victory over Syracuse at the JMA Wireless Dome.
The victory improved Pitt’s record to 13-6 (4-4) with 12 games remaining in the regular season. Jeff Capel’s team sits at No. 35 in the NET rankings as of Tuesday morning. Pitt is 3-0 against Quad-2 opponents this season, and will have a chance to add to that tonight against North Carolina, who is No. 40 in the NET.
North Carolina will bring a 13-8 (6-3) record into this evening’s showdown. The Tar Heels started to year in the preseason top 10, but a tough start dropped them from the rankings rather quickly. Now, North Carolina is a team in the middle of the pack in the ACC looking to separate itself, much like Pitt.
Under fourth-year head coach Hubert Davis, North Carolina is leaning heavy on its backcourt. The Tar Heels have four players averaging double figures this season, and none of them are taller than 6’4”.
The attack is once again led by RJ Davis. The one-time Pitt recruiting target is now in his fifth season in Chapel Hill. Tonight will also be his 160th career game in a North Carolina uniform. Davis averages 17.7 points per game this season, which is actually down from last year when he won ACC Player of the Year.
Part of the reason that production is down is because he now shares a backcourt with Ian Jackson, who pours in 15 points per game. Jackson, a five-star freshman, has lived up to the hype. Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble also average double figures as well. In their last game, the Tar Heels started all four guards.
These two teams have played some competitive games in recent seasons. Despite North Carolina sweeping the series last year, Pitt is 5-4 against North Carolina under Jeff Capel overall.
Can Pitt pull off a big win against the Tar Heels? The Panther-Lair.com staff gives their picks.
Stephen Gertz (13-6, 5-14 ATS) - This is a must-win for both teams, as a triumph represents a second Quad 2 victory for Pittsburgh Panthers and Quad 1 victory for UNC. Taking the home team here because I think they are slightly better, and the North Carolina Tar Heels will be playing their fourth game in 10 days with a road game against the Duke Blue Devils looming this Saturday. Other than playing fast, North Carolina is not particularly great at anything. They are a bad three-point shooting team and no longer have a dominant post player. In fact, they are likely to play with four guards. I do not want to say that plays into Pitt’s hands, but the Panthers are more than comfortable rolling out a lineup that only has Cam Corhen or Guillermo Diaz Graham on the floor. I think Jaland Lowe or Ishmael Leggett end up being two of the best three guards on Tuesday, which should power them to a narrow win at home.
Prediction: Pitt 82-78
Jim Hammett (15-4, 9-10 ATS) - There are going to be a lot of good guards on the floor tonight. Whether you’re talking Jaland Lowe, Ishmael Leggett, and Damian Dunn for Pitt, or RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, and Ian Jackson for North Carolina. I am not sure if they all cancel each other out necessarily, but when looking for advantages, Pitt may have a chance to look inside for the first time in a while. The Tar Heels are missing a piece inside, and have been looking for solutions all season, and the answer of late has been starting four guards for Hubert Davis. I think Pitt needs a big bounce back game from all of its taller players tonight, whether that’s Cam Corhen or Guillermo Diaz Graham, or even bench players like Papa Amadou Kante and Jorge Diaz Graham. Pitt has been getting bullied inside for the last few weeks especially in rebounding. UNC should be a matchup where Pitt should receive some production inside on offense, and also not give up so much on the defensive end either. The key tonight will be defending the UNC guards without fouling off the dribble and closing out on three-point shots. The Tar Heels don’t have a ton of answers to turn to inside if the shots aren’t falling.
Prediction: Pitt 78-73
Matt Steinbrink (14-5, 6-13 ATS) - This is a big one. Pitt does not have many more opportunities to boost their resume, so this game really stands out at home. Win this, and then there is a chance to get the confidence back and make a run. The concern with this game is North Carolina’s perimeter is also the strength of their team. The Tar Heels are weak and thin inside, but I have not seen enough from Pitt to tell me that they can take advantage. Therefore, I think it will come down to the guards. I expect both teams to have their share of runs, but Carolina’s explosiveness across four players on the perimeter gives me concern.
Prediction: North Carolina 81-79
Houston Wilson (14-5, 8-11 ATS) - After snapping a four-game losing streak with a win over Syracuse on Saturday, Pitt now faces a crucial test against a potential NCAA Tournament team in North Carolina. Pitt will rely on their guards to step up once again, especially against the experienced backcourt of UNC. With the game being played at home, I believe Pitt has the advantage in this matchup. North Carolina is thin in the frontcourt, an area where Pitt has had some struggles, but this could provide an opportunity for Pitt to take control. I’m confident that Pitt will capitalize on their strengths and extend their win streak to two.
Prediction: Pitt 81-76
Chris Peak (14-5, 8-11 ATS) - Jeff Capel has had some success against North Carolina since he took the Pitt job in 2018 with a 5-4 overall record and a 5-3 mark in regular-season games. Curiously, though, only two of those five wins happened in the Petersen Events Center, where Capel is 2-3 against the Tar Heels. I think he evens that record tonight. While Saturday’s win at Syracuse didn’t overwhelm me with confidence, I do think Pitt took a few steps in the right direction, particularly with the execution of the offense. I expect that to continue tonight, and I also think the Panthers - like quite a few teams this season - will benefit from UNC not having Armando Bacot around anymore. The Tar Heels aren’t great at getting offensive rebounds, and that plays well into the matchup for Pitt, since giving up offensive rebounds is arguably the Panthers’ biggest weakness. I think Pitt will get the win tonight behind the guards playing at a high level and the front court looking better than it has in awhile.
Prediction: Pitt 80-71
