Pitt gets set for the final five
With the off week in the rearview and more than half the season behind them, the Pitt football team will resume practice this week with an eye on the final five games of the season.
“Right now it's all about the ACC,” Pat Narduzzi said on the ACC football coaches teleconference last week. “We have five games to go. We can really do some great things here at the end of the year. We have to play at our best.”
Narduzzi isn’t just engaging in coachspeak: Pitt really can accomplish something in the final stretch of the 2018 season. Despite a 3-4 record through the first seven games, the Panthers are entering the lighter portion of their schedule, beginning with Duke at Heinz Field on Saturday.
There are no more Penn State’s, Central Florida’s or Notre Dame’s on the schedule. Only one of Pitt’s final five opponents is ranked this week, and that’s Miami, who was unranked last week after losing to Virginia but snuck back into the coaches’ poll at No. 25 on the strength of its off-week performance.
Still, the remaining opponents are no slouches. Four of the five have winning overall records and three are better than .500 in ACC play. The five teams are a combined 22-12 overall this season.
| Team | W/L (ACC) | Scoring offense (rank) | Scoring defense (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Pitt |
3-4 (2-1) |
24.3 (102nd) |
30.9 (91st) |
|
Duke |
5-2 (1-2) |
29.4 (61st) |
19.1 (23rd) |
|
Virginia |
5-2 (3-1) |
27.9 (74th) |
18.4 (19th) |
|
Virginia Tech |
4-2 (3-0) |
32.8 (43rd) |
24.5 (56th) |
|
Wake Forest |
3-4 (0-3) |
30.1 (59th) |
37.0 (116th) |
|
Miami |
5-2 (2-1) |
37.4 (24th) |
18.1 (17th) |
Those five teams represent almost the exact middle of the ACC in scoring this season, with Miami at No. 5 in the league, Virginia at No. 10 and the other three between them. Defensively, Miami, Virginia and Duke are Nos. 2, 3 and 4, respectively, in points per game, but Wake Forest is dead last in the conference.
The Deacons are one of the top rushing teams in the ACC, averaging 213 yards per game on the ground, while the other four teams are middle-of-the-pack in the conference, from Miami's 188 rushing yards per game to Duke's 157.9.
Virginia Tech, with redshirt junior Ryan Willis replacing last year's starter, Josh Jackson, is currently the No. 2 passing offense in the ACC, averaging 272 yards per game through the air. The other four teams on the schedule are less impressive: Wake Forest and Duke each average a little more than 220 passing yards per game; Miami and Virginia are closer to 200.
All five opponents are throwing the ball better than Pitt this season, but the Panthers appear to have already faced the most daunting passing offenses on the schedule.
On the defensive side, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are allowing the most passing yards per game in the ACC; Wake is no. 13 in the conference at 276.9 yards per game and Virginia Tech is No. 14 at 295.5. Miami, on the other hand, is holding opponents to just 130.9 yards per game through the air. And the Hurricanes are equally stingy against the run, allowing just 106.1 rushing yards per game.
Virginia and Virginia Tech are also holding opponents to less than 125 rushing yards per game, on average.
In ESPN's FPI - Football Power Index - rankings, which are meant to be predictive, Pitt is currently No. 69. Four out of the final five opponents are ranked higher:
Duke - No. 33
Virginia - No. 47
Virginia Tech - No. 36
Wake Forest - No. 76
Miami - No. 15
That's not to say a team with a lower FPI ranking can't beat a higher-ranked team. Syracuse and Georgia Tech are Nos. 43 and 44, respectively, and Pitt beat both the Orange and the Yellow Jackets earlier this season.