Today's game against Wake Forest feels like the ACC opener in some ways, but Pitt is already 1-1 in conference play. Still, with the non-conference slate complete, it is league games the rest of the way. Wake Forest has been off for an entire week, while Pitt last played Monday. The noon tip-off for the Panthers in that game was an attempt to try to prepare for the weekend noon games in the league. The early start had mixed reviews, as the Panthers shot the ball well and produced a season high in points against Canisius, but the defense was not present. Sitting at .500 in the league, this game is very important for Jeff Capel's young squad. The Panthers have a three-game slate of winnable games coming up and this contest against the Demon Deacons is the home game in that stretch. Wake is talented and has three talented and experienced players, but their season has seen mixed results thus far. The Deacons sit at 7-5 currently, with a win over Xavier. However, they are 0-2 in the ACC and have lost to Charlotte, Arizona and Penn State by 22 out of the conference. The two ACC losses were to Boston College by 7 and NC State by 9. Danny Manning does not want his team to fall to 0-3 and Capel would certainly like to build some momentum early in the year. Wake has not been good on the road, but it is a small sample size and the Demon Deacons are really good down the middle. Let's look at the individual matchups and how this game could play out.
Point Guard
Brandon Childress vs. Xavier Johnson
Childress is a very talented guard. The 6'0" senior does not possess great size and has had to develop into a creative point guard, but he has always been able to score. In his final season, his scoring average is up to 16.3 per and he also leads the team in assists, and his career high average is up to 4.5 per contest. That is not really his game, though, as he is more of a ball-mover and spot-up shooter. With that, he is a bit streaky. Childress is hitting just 40% from the floor and 30% from three, although he does lead the team in three-point field goals made with 19. For the most part, he has been consistent. He has scored in double figures in 10 of the 12 contests, but the 1 point on 0-7 shooting at Penn State looms large. When he is not scoring, this team is not going to have a chance. In the two league games, he has played very well. 30 points on 10-13 shooting against NC State, and then 24 points and 7 assists against Boston College. Johnson will need to play both ends in this one and just make winning plays. Getting into a basket exchange with Childress is not going to be enough, but where he can establish himself is on the defensive end and creating for others. Both players will probably get theirs, but whoever outplays the other could swing this game. Johnson is more talented, but Childress has the experience edge.
Advantage: Even
Shooting Guard
Andrien White vs. Trey McGowens
White is a 6'3" senior who is averaging 7.8 points and 3.9 rebounds per game. The shooting numbers are solid, especially the 41% from deep; that leads the team and he is second in makes with 16. He has 6 double-figure scoring games, but scored just 3 total points in the two ACC games. White had 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists in the Xavier win, and that kind of effort from him can make this team very dangerous. It is critical that McGowens and the Panthers do not allow for Wake's depth pieces to get it going. McGowens has been very up and down this year, but he has a big opportunity to shine in league play. This matchup sets up well for him. He could see some more size on him at times, and it is possible that Capel will put him on Childress for stretches. Regardless, Trey needs to be much more assertive and aggressive.
Advantage: Pitt
Small Forward
Chaundee Brown vs. Au'Diese Toney
Brown is the second leading scorer on the team at 13.6, and the 6'5" junior wing also grabs 6.5 rebounds per game. He averaged double figures last year at 11.9, but has been inconsistent to this point in his career. This season, he has scored in double figures in half of the games with a wide variety of results. The start of the season had been a bit of a struggle, but he really caught fire last week with 26 points and 6 rebounds against Xavier and then 25 points and 10 rebounds against North Carolina A & T. Brown is a physical wing who should be coming into this game with a ton of confidence, although he does play much better at home, as he is shooting just 32% from the floor on the road. Toney has been in double figures in 3 of his last 5 games, and he seems to have settled into a secondary role. In this game, his defense on Brown will be critical.
Advantage: Wake Forest
Power Forward
Isaiah Mucius vs. Justin Champagnie
Mucius is an athletic 6'8" sophomore forward who is playing nearly 22 minutes per game. At this point in his career, he is primarily a secondary option and is more of an athlete developing. He had 18 and 4 against Boston College in the opener, but has reached double figures in just four of the eleven games after that. Mucius also only converts 38% of his field goal attempts and 43% of his free throw attempts, and he is more of a power player, only making 6 threes on the year at a 29% clip. Champagnie went through a small slump but has since recovered and has played well in his last three games. His advanced skill set and knack for the ball should allow him to have another positive outing.
Advantage: Pitt
Center
Olivier Sarr vs. Eric Hamilton
This is the matchup that Capel and Pitt fans have to be dreading. Sarr is now a junior, and the 7'0" center from France has taken off. His first two seasons featured a lot of potential, but he is starting to put it all together now. He averaged 6.2 points and 5.5 rebounds last year and he has basically doubled his production. In his third season, he is averaging 13.1 and 9.5 through 12 games. He is converting 51% of his attempts from the floor, and he is very solid at the line at 77%. He has five double-doubles on the year, and has scored in double figures in his last seven. This Pitt team will likely struggle with quality centers all season, and Sarr is one of the more naturally talented ones that they will see. Hamilton and crew will have their work cut out for them. Terrell Brown probably matches up with Sarr better, but his inconsistent play and performance against Canisius leaves you with concern. If I am Jeff Capel, I am trying to front Sarr and use Hamilton's athleticism to make the entry passes more difficult. They should also be physical, with at least three players that they can rotate fouls with.
Advantage: Wake Forest
Bench
Danny Manning decided to suspend two players for this game, both limited reserves. Factoring those absences, the Deacons will go eight or nine deep. 6'3" senior guard Torry Johnson leads the way at 5.3 points. After that, it is three freshmen: 6'3" guard Jahcobi Neath is averaging 4.2 points, 6'8" forward Ismael Massoud is seeing limited time and averaging 3.4 points, and with Sharone Wright suspended, the rotation is rounded out with 6'9" center Ody Oguama. On the Pitt side, Ryan Murphy scoring 16 against Canisius had to be a comforting feeling for Capel, and he also got freshman wing Gerald Drumgoole back. There is also a good chance that Kene Chukwuku returns soon. Neither bench is particularly strong, but Pitt's has a little more potential.
Advantage: Pitt
Coaching
Danny Manning vs. Jeff Capel
Manning is in his sixth season at Wake. Overall, he is 72-98 after going 38-29 at Tulsa. He went 19-14 in the 2016-17 season and lost in the first four of the NCAA Tournament, but that was the lone winning season, and it has been quite the struggle for the program to climb back to relevancy. The school has actually been very patient with Manning, but it remains to be seen if he can ever get things established at Wake Forest and this year would be a good one due to the three experienced and productive players that he has. Manning has brought some talent into the program, but the in-game coaching and consistency has been an issue. A big part of that has been the culture. Pitt's culture has also been a problem, but Capel seems to be ahead of pace in getting that fixed.
Advantage: Pitt
Wake Forest has three quality players down the middle, and Sarr is one of the most difficult centers to deal with in the league. With that being said, they have not played well on the road and they turn it over almost 15 times per game. They also surrender 72.4 points per game, including 84 per game in two ACC contests. Manning has a couple of streaky scorers in the back court, so it is imperative that Pitt defends and stays solid. I think this game will go back and forth and should be close throughout. This young Pitt group will be extremely excited and ready to go, and I think they withstand strong efforts from Childress and Sarr with the depth being the difference.
Prediction: Pitt 71, Wake Forest 67
