Matchup preview: Pitt looks for revenge against Florida State
Pitt has just three conference losses on February 10th and one of them came to the Floirda State Seminoles in January. It came as a bit of a surprise, as the Seminoles have not had a good season, but yet they remain a dangerous team. This is not nearly one of Leonard Hamilton's better teams, but there is still just enough length and athleticism to scare you.
In that game at home, Pitt fell down early and went into the half down 10. That deficit proved to be just too much to overcome. The final ended up being 71-64 in favor of Florida State. Their length gave Pitt's perimeter attack trouble, as they shot just 7-28 from three-point range and had one of their worst outside shooting performances of the season. For a team that relies on it so much and normally does it so well, it disrupted the flow of the offense and ultimately sunk them.
Florida State ended up shooting 10-20 from, even though they are 34% as a team on the season. That single area was basically the difference in the game. Now Pitt gets their chance and will play the first team this season in which they are trying to split the series. Overall, Florida State is now 8-17 overall and 6-8 in conference play. The all-time series has actually been dominated by Pitt to the tune of 15-7, although Florida State has now won three of the last four. With Pitt basically half a game out of first place, they face a daunting road challenge now to keep pace, where they have been good all season.
Let's look at how the matchups break down.
Caleb Mills vs. Nelly Cummings
Even as an experienced player, this will be a very tough matchup for Cummings. Caleb Mills is also experienced and the 6'3" junior brings a lot of size and athleticism to the point guard spot. On the season, he is averaging 12.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. He also grabs 1.5 steals per game. All of this supported by an inconsistent 40% from the floor and 31% from three. With 26 made threes on the season, he is basically one make per game. His game is using an explosive first step to utilize his length advantage on most point guards. Against Pitt last time, Mills had a very solid stat line of 11 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. Nelly was not good in this matchup, as he scored 7 points but shot just 1-8 from three. When Nelly is making shots, the Panthers are just a completely different team with incredible energy. For Pitt to feel better about this matchup the second time around, Nelly has to shoot the ball better. This matchup is a very close one that could go either way. Mills has the length and skill set to disrupt Nelly's game, but I would be surprised if he doesn't respond and play better this time around.
Advantage: Even
Darin Green Jr. vs. Jamarius Burton
Green is a 6'4" junior guard who is very dangerous. Of all the Seminoles in the last matchup, he played the best against the Panthers. His 24 points and 4 assists contributed in a big way to the win. On the season, he is second on the team in points with 14.1 per. The shooting numbers are okay from the floor (41%), but really good from three (40%). He is the Seminoles' best outside shooter based on both accuracy and volume. Green has made 77 threes on the season, nearly half of the team's total. When he is on, he is one the most dangerous shooters in the country. When he is off, it is basically the opposite. In the three games preceding Syracuse, Green was 10-17 from deep. Last time out against the Orange, Green shot 17 threes and made just 5. He has another game this year where he went 1-10 from three against Miami. Pitt caught the hot hand last time, as he was 5-8 from outside. Already this season, Green has attempted double digit three point attempts a remarkable five times. He is not shy and certainly has the green light. Jamarius Burton was really good against the Seminoles last time out with 20 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists. They will need him and Cummings to lead the way on the road once again.
Advantage: Pitt
Jalen Warley vs. Greg Elliott
Warley is a 6'6" sophomore that has been a secondary support player on the wing. He is averaging just 6 points per game, and he contributed just 4 points and 2 assists in the last matchup. Warley is talented and has natural skill, evidenced by his 3.5 assists per game. That number is good for second on the team and he is capable of creating offense for others. With that being said, his production has not come anywhere near the size and skill set potential. Greg Elliott was just fine in this last matchup, which is normally good enough but not with Cummings also struggling. Greg scored 9 points on 2-6 from deep. With the emergence of Nike Sibande late in the season, Greg has adjusted to a bit of a new role. His selfless personality has made it a seamless transition, but he is still dangerous when he can get it teed up. Elliott has more potential here, but it is a very close and comparable matchup.
Advantage: Pitt
Matthew Cleveland vs. Blake Hinson
Cleveland leads the Seminoles in scoring (14.4) and rebounding (7.8). The 6'7" sophomore forward is athletic and wired for production, falling in line with some of Leonard Hamilton's dominating and versatile forwards. Green did most of the damage, but Cleveland was right there with Mills against Pitt in making back-breaking plays. He added 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists in a bit of a quiet game. It was almost right on his average, as Cleveland may be Florida State's most consistent player. In most seasons, Cleveland would probably be on the wing in Hamilton's system but the roster is not as big as normal. Still, Cleveland is a matchup problem at either forward position. He has reached double figures in his last 18 consecutive games, including one triple double. Blake Hinson had a nice game against the Seminoles last time with 16 points and 9 rebounds. This is a high level matchup between two very good players. Cleveland is more versatile and a better all around player, but Hinson is a more dangerous scorer.
Advantage: Even
Cameron Corhen vs. Federiko Federiko
Corhen is tiny compared to most centers that Hamilton has run out through the years. The 6'10" freshman is still very long, relatively speaking, but there is not the depth of multiple 7 footers that we have seen from this program. On the year, Corhen is averaging 8.3 points and 3.3 rebounds. Against Pitt, he contributed just 4 points and 3 rebounds in 25 minutes. Since that game, Cameron put together two big 16-point games, but then failed to score last time out against Syracuse. Federiko has been steadily progressing all season long. Earlies in the season, he was basically just a long body that could alter shots and run the floor. Now in February, he has developed to the point where he is catching tough passes off of rolls and finishing around the rim. He is one of the best rim runners in the league, and his scoring has really come on of late. The next challenge will be to improve in the rebounding area, but he is still ahead of schedule. In a matchup where you will always be challenged with size, I think Federiko actually gives Pitt an edge here.
Advantage: Pitt
Bench
The bench was a big factor in this game last time, with Florida State getting 17 points while Pitt's bench struggled mightily. 6'5" freshman Chandler Jackson led the way with a surprising 8 points, as he only averages just 2.9 points per game on the season. 7'4" sophomore Naheem McLeod is the typical Leonard Hamilton center prospect, but he is still working off of the bench for now. On the season, he averages 4.7 points and 3 rebounds but is still very raw. 6'11" freshman Baba Miller is the other key reserve. He had high expectations entering the year and got a late start. It appeared as though Miller was coming on and about to make an impact after he scored 11 points against Clemson. However, he has scored just 2 total points in the last three games. Nike Sibande scored just 4 points last time and also struggled from deep. Pitt's super sub has been dominant since, and he is essentially a different player at this point. Florida State will likely use more players off of its bench, but the Diaz Graham twins are emerging and Nike Sibande is the best reserve in the matchup.
Advantage: Pitt
Leonard Hamilton vs. Jeff Capel
Leonard Hamilton has no doubt been a symbol of consistency throughout his career. He has had two different successful and long stints at different high-major schools in different conferences. Florida State has been one of the most consistent and dangerous teams in the ACC recently, and this would constitute a down year for the program. While they were certainly due for a down season, I'm not sure the talent on this roster should have the team in a better position right now. It is certainly not a perfect team, but he has three quality and experienced players in the starting lineup that are quite talented. There is no question that Jeff Capel is squeezing every ounce of talent out of his roster and getting the most from them. Overall big picture, Capel can only hope to reach the win totals that Hamilton has, but there is no question that Capel is doing a much better job with his team this season.
Advantage: Pitt