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Published Feb 13, 2024
Matchup preview: How does Pitt stack up against Virginia?
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Matt Steinbrink
Panther-Lair.com staff writer

The Pitt Panthers are streaking. The team has won five of the last six games, with the lone loss coming down to the last possession. Pitt now stands at 15-8 and 6-6 with a legitimate chance to make it interesting down the stretch. The next test is at Virginia tonight for a 7:00 p.m. tip.

There is no question that Pitt is in the middle of a hot streak, but Virginia is even hotter right now. The Cavaliers have won their last eight games. On January 13th, Virginia was 2-3 in league play and it looks like Tony Bennett's team was in danger of a tough season. Instead, they have rallied and responded to one of the best coaches in the country. Virginia currently stands 19-5 overall with a 10-3 mark in the conference. Despite everything and how it has looked, they are once again in a position to make a run at the regular season title. It is a team that does not score the ball well, but they have gotten it done on the other end. This is a typical Virginia team but I would not say vintage. This roster is not quite as talented as some of the past teams, but they have certainly gotten it done. There are just two players that are averaging double figures, with the team-high being 13.8. Crazy enough, Ryan Dunn is not even one of those two players. On the season, Virginia scores 65.8 points while allowing just 57.7. That defensive total is good for third in the country. In conference play, they are allowing 61 points. That is the best mark in the league and they just recently held Miami to 38 points. It is a relatively experienced team as well who shares the ball. Their assist average of 16.2 per game is first in the ACC. They only turn it over 7.8 times per game as well. It is a group that doesn't jump off the page or screen at you, but they just don't beat themselves and have a couple of dangerous shooters.

Virginia has lost this season to Wisconsin, Memphis, Notre Dame, NC State, and Wake Forest. The wins have been over Tarleton State, Florida, NC Central, Northwestern, Morgan State, Louisville twice, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, NC State. Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, and Florida State. Something has to give for two of the hottest teams in the conference tonight. Let's take a look at the player matchups to see how this matchup looks.

Reece Beekman vs. Jaland Lowe

With the way that Jaland Lowe is playing this year, you can easily count the names of better point guards in the ACC on one hand, and one such player may be Reece Beekman. The 6’3” senior guard is having his best season yet and is this team’s leader. Beekman leads the Cavaliers in scoring and assists at 13.8 and 6.1, respectively. He has been around for the best of times at Virginia, starting 111 of his 116 games. Beekman is a true program guy that has been at Virginia for his entire career. In their 24 games, Reece has reached double figures in 20 of them with three 20 point games. He also has two double digit assist games, which is very difficult to do, especially when you consider the pace that Virginia plays. Beekman also takes care of the ball, owning an assist to turnover ratio of just over 3 to 1. The one weak area has been the outside shooting, where he is just 30% and has 22 makes on the season. Other than that, it is really hard to find faults with his game. Jaland Lowe continues to play so well, although the assist numbers in conference play have dwindled. At this point though, they need points and Lowe has adapted as a pure scorer for his team. His second 20-point game of the season came in the win at NC State, and they needed every every one of them. This matchup with Beekman is a very tough one, and he also needs to be mindful of the 2.4 steals per game average. The experience, defensive presence, and assist production gives Beekman the edge.

Advantage: Virginia

Isaac McKneely vs. Bub Carrington

McKneely has really come on this season and given his team an outside presence. The 6’4" sophomore guard got plenty of time last year, averaging 6.7 points off of the bench with the exception of one start. He did average 21.5 minutes last season and flashed as strictly an outside shooter. In his first season, he made 51 threes in a support role. Now as a sophomore, McKneely is averaging 12.3 points per game. He only shoots 36% from inside the arc, but he is 48% from outside with 59 makes already. The scoring has been a bit inconsistent since he is still mostly just a three-point shooter, as he has reached double figures in 11 of 24 contests. When he has it going though, he may just be the best outside shooter in the league. On Saturday last time out, Isaac went 5-7 from deep and went off for 29 points in the Florida State win. In another game against Syracuse earlier in the season, he went 6-8 from outside as part of his 22-point effort. Pitt has to stay all over McKneely and try to force him to drive. Even if it results in points, I'd rather get him outside of his comfort zone and force him to make other shots. Bub has been playing well recently as well, providing a bit more across the total stat sheet. The main difference in this one is the outside shooting. This one cannot get into a shooting competition for Pitt. Bub needs to use his size and athleticism to make McKneely dribble. Especially being at home. In Virginia's five losses, McKneely is shooting 33% from three. In the wins, he is 51%. He is that important to Virginia.

Advantage: Even

Jacob Groves vs. Zack Austin

Groves is an older and experienced 6’7" senior wing. He spent two seasons at Eastern Washington before two years at Oklahoma. For comparison sake, he averaged 6.8 points and 2.5 rebounds last season in the Big 12. Groves has played in 140 college games in his career already, starting 59 of them. On the season, Jacob is averaging 8 points and 2.5 rebounds. Although the numbers aren't big, what really stands out is the efficiency. Groves is shooting 50% from two, 70% from the line, and 51% from three. It is a decent sample size too, with 37 makes from outside. In 24 games, he has only reached double figures nine times. There are some signs of him getting more comfortable though, accomplishing that feat in the last four. Groves is currently on a run like we saw Blake Hinson have earlier this year, making 16 of his last 22 three point attempts. Neither one of these players is an explosive scorer, but Groves is an elite outside shooter when he can get his feet and has some space. Groves has a similar home to road split as McKneely, but he is actually shooting 56% from three against ACC opponents. Hard to imagine this streak can continue much longer. Pitt would love for it to end tonight.

Advantage: Virginia

Ryan Dunn vs. Blake Hinson

What is amazing about this Virginia team is that they are doing all of this without Dunn living up to expectations. Plenty of basketball people anticipated Dunn being an NBA prospect because of his length and perimeter ability. The former Oak Hill product averaged just 2.6 points and 2.9 rebounds last season as a freshman. This year, he is up to 9 points and 7.1 rebounds to go with 2.1 blocks per game. The numbers are perfectly fine and he is shooting 68% from two, but it has just been inconsistent. Dunn is only shooting 58% from the line and 24% from three. He has just 6 made threes in 24 games. For the year, Dunn has ten double figure point games. He has really struggled for him over the last four games, scoring just 14 total points. Two of those efforts were 0 points against Notre Dame, and then 1 point against Florida State. What could make this lineup interesting is that Dunn has perimeter ability, so Blake will not have that typical advantage. Still, Blake has been better and is a much stronger forward. I would expect Blake to try to drive the ball right at Dunn and Virginia's front court. Dunn still has a ton of potential, but Hinson has been the much better player this season.

Advantage: Pitt

Jordan Minor vs. Federiko Federiko

Virginia has never really had a great center under Bennett, but they have always had functional length at this spot. This season, they don't have that and seem to be working through two different players in search of an answer. 6’8" senior Jordan Minor will likely get the start in this one. Minor is a transfer that spent four seasons at Merrimack. He has played in 129 career games and last year he averaged 17.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. His total averages for this season are 4.3 points and 3 rebounds. He has just three double digit scoring games, but all three have been in league play surprisingly enough. He does have 22 points over the last four games, so he is playing a bit better. Minor is capable of finishing around the rim but under it. This is a game where Federiko really needs to impose his will and make things difficult for Minor and Blake Buchanan. This spot is not exactly going to be a spotlight for the broadcast team, but it is one that Pitt needs to win.

Advantage: Even

Bench

Virginia is a really deep team. Bennett will play as many as 11 players in the rotation. With that being said, it is a bit more quantity than quality. 6’6" sophomore Andrew Rohde leads the way by averaging 4.9 points, 2 rebounds, and 2.9 assists. His shooting numbers have not been good, but he does have 22 made threes. 6’5" freshman wing Leon Bond is next with impressive averages of 4.6 points and 3.1 rebounds. 6’11" freshman Blake Buchanan is contributing 3.8 points and 3.3 rebounds. There are times when they get more out of him at center than Minor, but they have been mindful of his development. 6'4 freshman Elijah Gertrude is adding 3.5 points per game, while fellow 6’5" junior guard Taine Murray is adding 3. The rotation is rounded out by 6'0 junior Dante Harris. He will spell Beekman at the point and he is averaging 2.6 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists. There is not one reserve that scares you all that much, but it is a deep group without much drop-off. Ishmael Leggett is the most impactful player off of either bench, but Coach Capel has really shortened up his rotation.

Advantage: Even

Tony Bennett vs. Jeff Capel

For my money, Bennett is clearly the best coach in the conference now. The 54-year old has only had two head coaching jobs and he has been flat out elite at both stops. He went a ridiculous 69-33 at Washington State, and is 360-130 at Virginia. Bennett has made the NCAA Tournament eleven times and is 16-10 and in the game's biggest event. He also has a final four and NCAA Title (2009). He also has won six regular season championships and two conference tournament championships. Bennett has been so dominant that it is almost boring. What is incredible is that he is still winning with the same formula. It has never been easy to get young kids to buy into defense and unselfishness, and especially not now in 2024. This is not one of his best teams, but he still has them right in the mix. That is the sign of a great coach. Virginia has been one of the two most consistent and successful programs in the ACC under Bennett's leadership.

Advantage: Virginia

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